What Animals Do Before a Hurricane
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A Rapid Forecasting and Mapping System of Storm Surge and Coastal Flooding
AUGUST 2020 Y A N G E T A L . 1663 A Rapid Forecasting and Mapping System of Storm Surge and Coastal Flooding KUN YANG,VLADIMIR A. PARAMYGIN, AND Y. PETER SHENG Department of Civil and Coastal Engineering, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida (Manuscript received 16 July 2019, in final form 2 March 2020) ABSTRACT A prototype of an efficient and accurate rapid forecasting and mapping system (RFMS) of storm surge is presented. Given a storm advisory from the National Hurricane Center, the RFMS can generate a coastal inundation map on a high-resolution grid in 1 min (reference system Intel Core i7–3770K). The foundation of the RFMS is a storm surge database consisting of high-resolution simulations of 490 optimal storms generated by a robust storm surge modeling system, Curvilinear-Grid Hydrodynamics in 3D (CH3D-SSMS). The RFMS uses an efficient quick kriging interpolation scheme to interpolate the surge response from the storm surge database, which considers tens of thousands of combinations of five landfall parameters of storms: central pressure deficit, radius to maximum wind, forward speed, heading direction, and landfall location. The RFMS is applied to southwest Florida using data from Hurricane Charley in 2004 and Hurricane Irma in 2017, and to the Florida Panhandle using data from Hurricane Michael in 2018 and validated with observed high water mark data. The RFMS results agree well with observation and direct simulation of the high-resolution CH3D- SSMS. The RFMS can be used for real-time forecasting during a hurricane or ‘‘what-if’’ scenarios for miti- gation planning and preparedness training, or to produce a probabilistic flood map. -
Comparison of Destructive Wind Forces of Hurricane Irma with Other Hurricanes Impacting NASA Kennedy Space Center, 2004-2017
Comparison of Destructive Wind Forces of Hurricane Irma with Other Hurricanes Impacting NASA Kennedy Space Center, 2004 - 2017 Presenter: Mrs. Kathy Rice Authors KSC Weather: Dr. Lisa Huddleston Ms. Launa Maier Dr. Kristin Smith Mrs. Kathy Rice NWS Melbourne: Mr. David Sharp NOT EXPORT CONTROLLED This document has been reviewed by the KSC Export Control Office and it has been determined that it does not meet the criteria for control under the International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR) or Export Administration Regulations (EAR). Reference EDR Log #: 4657, NASA KSC Export Control Office, (321) 867-9209 1 Hurricanes Impacting KSC • In September 2017, Hurricane Irma produced sustained hurricane force winds resulting in facility damage at Kennedy Space Center (KSC). • In 2004, 2005, and 2016, hurricanes Charley, Frances, Jeanne, Wilma, and Matthew also caused damage at KSC. • Destructive energies from sustained wind speed were calculated to compare these hurricanes. • Emphasis is placed on persistent horizontal wind force rather than convective pulses. • Result: Although Hurricane Matthew (2016) provided the highest observed wind speed and greatest kinetic energy, the destructive force was greater from Hurricane Irma. 2 Powell & Reinhold’s Article 2007 • Purpose: “Broaden the scientific debate on how best to describe a hurricane’s destructive potential” • Names the following as poor indicators of a hurricane’s destructive potential • Intensity (Max Sustained Surface Winds): Provides a measure to compare storms, but does not measure destructive potential since it does not account for storm size. • The Saffir-Simpson scale: Useful for communicating risk to individuals and communities, but is only a measure of max sustained winds, again, not accounting for storm size. -
Geomorphologic Recovery of North Captiva Island from the Landfall of Hurricane Charley in 2004
geosciences Article Geomorphologic Recovery of North Captiva Island from the Landfall of Hurricane Charley in 2004 Emma Wilson Kelly and Felix Jose * Department of Marine & Earth Sciences, The Water School, Florida Gulf Coast University, Fort Myers, FL 33965, USA; [email protected] * Correspondence: [email protected] Abstract: Hurricane Charley made landfall on the Gulf Coast of Florida on 13 August 2004 as a category 4 hurricane, devastating North Captiva Island. The hurricane caused a breach to occur to the southern end of the island, which naturally healed itself over the course of three years. By 2008, the cut was completely repaired geomorphologically. LiDAR data analysis shows the northern half of the island has been subjected to persistent erosion from 1998–2018, while the southern half experienced accretion since 2004, including the complete closure of the “Charley cut”. The maxi- mum volume of sediment erosion in the northern sector of the island (R71–R73) from 2004–2018 was −85,710.1 m3, which was the source of southern accretion. The breached area of the island (R78b–R79a) obtained 500,163.9 m3 of sediments from 2004–2018 to heal the cut made by Hurricane Charley. Along with LiDAR data analysis, Google Earth Pro historical imageries and SANDS volu- metric analysis confirmed the longshore transport of sediments from the northern to the southern end of the island. Winter storms are mainly responsible for this southerly longshore transport and are hypothesized to be the main factor driving the coastal dynamics that restored the breach and Citation: Kelly, E.W.; Jose, F. helps in widening the southern end of North Captiva Island. -
After Action Report for Hurricane Jeanne
BUIILDING CODE TRIAGE TEAMS AFTER ACTION REPORT HURRICANE JEANNE I. PROCEDURES FOLLOWED: 1. DEPLOYMENT: The deployment of the Building Code Triage was accomplished under a Tracker 2000 Mission Number, input by the Infrastructure Branch Chief (POC: Jim Naum, DEM). 2. NOTIFICATION: The notification of DCA team members was accomplished internally by calling tree. Additional augmentation of the team was provided by retired CBO Red Wilkes, Executive Director of the Suwanne River BOAF Chapter. Outside contractor PBS&J was not used in this deployment due to exhausting of funds during Hurricane Charley. No augmentation by FEMA or ARA occurred during this deployment. 3. ACTIVATION: The activation of the team was initiated on Sunday, September 26, 2004 with rendezvous in Kissimmee, FL at the Holiday Inn on HW-192. Two teams deployed on September 27, 2004: one to Brevard County and one to St. Lucie & Indian River Counties, concentrating primarily on residential construction subjected to category II winds. 4. TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS: The logistics of transportation for the DCA only members of the teams was provided by POVs-- a Ford F-250 crew cab pickup truck and a SUV. All Triage Team equipment was carried with the teams when they deployed. NOTE: As anticipated, a major problem was experienced in finding hotel rooms with electricity, which accounted for our staying approximately 100 miles from the damaged sites. II. FINDINGS: 1. BREVARD COUNTY: One Triage Team deployed initially to Melborne in Brevard County on Monday morning (09/27/04) and contacted the Chief Building Official (CBO). The Triage Team Leader explained why we were there and requested a local area map annotating residences built to the FBC. -
Reimbursement to American Red Cross for Hurricanes Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne
United States Government Accountability Office GAO Report to Congressional Committees May 2006 DISASTER RELIEF Reimbursement to American Red Cross for Hurricanes Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne a GAO-06-518 May 2006 DISASTER RELIEF Accountability Integrity Reliability Highlights Reimbursement to American Red Cross Highlights of GAO-06-518, a report to for Hurricanes Charley, Frances, Ivan, congressional committees and Jeanne Why GAO Did This Study What GAO Found In accordance with Public Law 108- The signed agreement between FEMA and the Red Cross properly 324, GAO is required to audit the established criteria for the Red Cross to be reimbursed for allowable reimbursement of up to $70 million expenses for disaster relief, recovery, and emergency services related to of appropriated funds to the hurricanes Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne. The Red Cross incurred American Red Cross (Red Cross) $88.6 million of allowable expenses. for disaster relief associated with 2004 hurricanes Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne. The audit was Consistent with the law, the agreement explicitly provided that the Red performed to determine if (1) the Cross would not seek reimbursement for any expenses reimbursed by other Federal Emergency Management federal funding sources. GAO identified $0.3 million of FEMA paid costs that Agency (FEMA) established the Red Cross properly deducted from its reimbursement requests, so as not criteria and defined allowable to duplicate funding by other federal sources. The Red Cross also reduced its expenditures to ensure that requested reimbursements by $60.2 million to reflect private donations for reimbursement claims paid to the disaster relief for the four hurricanes, for a net reimbursement of Red Cross met the purposes of the 28.1 million. -
A Classification Scheme for Landfalling Tropical Cyclones
A CLASSIFICATION SCHEME FOR LANDFALLING TROPICAL CYCLONES BASED ON PRECIPITATION VARIABLES DERIVED FROM GIS AND GROUND RADAR ANALYSIS by IAN J. COMSTOCK JASON C. SENKBEIL, COMMITTEE CHAIR DAVID M. BROMMER JOE WEBER P. GRADY DIXON A THESIS Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree Master of Science in the Department of Geography in the graduate school of The University of Alabama TUSCALOOSA, ALABAMA 2011 Copyright Ian J. Comstock 2011 ALL RIGHTS RESERVED ABSTRACT Landfalling tropical cyclones present a multitude of hazards that threaten life and property to coastal and inland communities. These hazards are most commonly categorized by the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Potential Disaster Scale. Currently, there is not a system or scale that categorizes tropical cyclones by precipitation and flooding, which is the primary cause of fatalities and property damage from landfalling tropical cyclones. This research compiles ground based radar data (Nexrad Level-III) in the U.S. and analyzes tropical cyclone precipitation data in a GIS platform. Twenty-six landfalling tropical cyclones from 1995 to 2008 are included in this research where they were classified using Cluster Analysis. Precipitation and storm variables used in classification include: rain shield area, convective precipitation area, rain shield decay, and storm forward speed. Results indicate six distinct groups of tropical cyclones based on these variables. ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to thank the faculty members I have been working with over the last year and a half on this project. I was able to present different aspects of this thesis at various conferences and for this I would like to thank Jason Senkbeil for keeping me ambitious and for his patience through the many hours spent deliberating over the enormous amounts of data generated from this research. -
Hurricane Charley the Storm Everyone Said Could Happen, but Few Believed Would, Makes Landfall in Southwest Florida
Hurricane Charley The storm everyone said could happen, but few believed would, makes landfall in Southwest Florida. For years, emergency management planners in Cape Coral have said that it is not a matter of “if” Cape Coral would be impacted by a major hurricane, but rather “when” a storm would occur. The answer arrived in August on Friday the 13th when the City of Cape Coral received its first exposure to the effects of a major hurricane as “Charley” approached the coastline of Southwest Florida. Cape Coral was not incorporated in 1960 when Hurricane Donna blew through Southwest Florida, the last time this area experienced a direct impact from a hurricane. Hurricane Charley had been projected to be a weak Category 2 hurricane, making landfall in Tampa Bay. However, by late-morning on Friday, Charley had evolved quickly into a frightening Category 4 storm. Even more frightening was Hurricane Charley had made a turn to the east, and the storm pointed squarely at the Cape Coral/Ft. Myers area. Much to Cape Coral’s relief, the storm took a last-minute jog to the north, and the eye of Hurricane Charley missed the city by only 20 miles. Unfortunately, our neighbors in Punta Gorda and Port Charlotte suffered the harshest effects of the storm, and many homes and businesses were devastated by the 140 mph winds as Charley moved through the area. Within two hours of the storm’s passing, City crews were on the street clearing downed trees from the roadways and providing access to emergency vehicles. Hurricane Charley approaches the Cape Coral/Fort Myers area. -
2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Now Is the Time to Get Ready for a Hurricane
SUMMER 2020 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Now is the time to get ready for a hurricane he 2020 Hurricane Season started June 1. Hurricanes are El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are expected to either among nature’s most powerful and destructive phenomena. remain neutral or to trend toward La Nina, meaning there will not be an T Early forecasts by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric El Nino present to suppress hurricane activity. Also, there are warm- Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center is predicting er-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic above-normal activity for the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season. Ocean and Caribbean Sea, coupled with reduced vertical wind NOAA is a division of the National Weather Service. shear, and weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds. Similar con- The outlook predicts a 60 percent chance of an above-nor- ditions have been producing more active seasons since the mal season, a 30 percent chance of a near-normal season and current high-activity era began in 1995. only a 10 percent chance of a below-normal season. The Atlantic Hurricanes pose the greatest threat to life and property hurricane season officially runs from June 1 through November 30. however, tropical storms and depressions can also be devastating. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is forecasting a likely range of 13 The primary hazards from tropical storms, tropical depressions, and to 19 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 6 to 10 could hurricanes, are storm surge flooding, inland flooding from heavy rains, become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3 to 6 major hur- destructive winds, tornadoes, and high surf and rip current. -
Storms Surging: Building Resilience in Extreme Weather
ALLIANZ GLOBAL CORPORATE & SPECIALTY® STORMS SURGING BUILDING RESILIENCE IN EXTREME WEATHER Hurricane seen from space. Source: 3dmotus / Shutterstock.com HURRICANE REPORT 2020 STORMS SURGING: BUILDING RESILIENCE IN EXTREME WEATHER Hurricane approaching tropical island coastline. Source: Ryan DeBerardinis / Shutterstock.com The intensity, frequency and duration of North Atlantic hurricanes, as TOP 10 COSTLIEST HURRICANES IN THE UNITED STATES2 well as the frequency of Category 4 and 5 hurricanes, have all increased ($ millions) since the early 1980s. Hurricane-associated flooding and rainfall rates Rank Date Location Hurricane Estimated insured loss In 2018 dollars3 are projected to rise. Models project a slight decrease in the annual Dollars when occurred number of tropical cyclones, but an increase in the number of the 1 August 25-30, 2005 AL, FL, GA, LA, MS, TN Hurricane Katrina $41,100 $51,882 strongest (Category 4 and 5) hurricanes going forward1. 2 September 19-22, 2017 PR, USVI Hurricane Maria4 $25,000-30,000 $25,600-30,700 3 September 6-12, 2017 AL, FL, GA, NC, PR, SC, UV Hurricane Irma4 $22,000-27,000 $22,500-27,600 4 August 25-Sep. 1, 2017 AL, LA, MS, NC, TN, TX Hurricane Harvey4 $18,000-20,000 $18,400-20,400 5 October 28-31, 2012 CT, DC, DE, MA, MD, ME, NC, NH, Hurricane Sandy $18,750 $20,688 NJ, NY, OH, PA, RI, VA, VT, WV 6 August 24-26, 1992 FL, LA Hurricane Andrew $15,500 $25,404 7 September 12-14, 2008 AR, IL, IN, KY, LA, MO, OH, PA, TX Hurricane Ike $12,500 $14,631 WILL 2020 BE ANOTHER RECORD-BREAKING YEAR? 8 October 10-12, -
Estimating Tropical Cyclone Intensity from Infrared Image Data
690 WEATHER AND FORECASTING VOLUME 26 Estimating Tropical Cyclone Intensity from Infrared Image Data MIGUEL F. PIN˜ EROS College of Optical Sciences, The University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona ELIZABETH A. RITCHIE Department of Atmospheric Sciences, The University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona J. SCOTT TYO College of Optical Sciences, The University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona (Manuscript received 20 December 2010, in final form 28 February 2011) ABSTRACT This paper describes results from a near-real-time objective technique for estimating the intensity of tropical cyclones from satellite infrared imagery in the North Atlantic Ocean basin. The technique quantifies the level of organization or axisymmetry of the infrared cloud signature of a tropical cyclone as an indirect measurement of its maximum wind speed. The final maximum wind speed calculated by the technique is an independent estimate of tropical cyclone intensity. Seventy-eight tropical cyclones from the 2004–09 seasons are used both to train and to test independently the intensity estimation technique. Two independent tests are performed to test the ability of the technique to estimate tropical cyclone intensity accurately. The best results from these tests have a root-mean-square intensity error of between 13 and 15 kt (where 1 kt ’ 0.5 m s21) for the two test sets. 1. Introduction estimate the intensity of tropical cyclones was developed by V. Dvorak in the 1970s during the early years of Tropical cyclones (TC) form over the warm waters of satellites (Dvorak 1975). In this technique, an analyst the tropical oceans where direct measurements of their classifies the cloud scene types in visible and infrared intensity (among other factors) are scarce (Gray 1979; satellite imagery and applies a set of rules to calculate McBride 1995). -
Hurricane Jeanne Approaching Florida in September 2004
MIAMI-SOUTH FLORIDA National Weather Service Forecast Office http://www.weather.gov/miami Hurricane Jeanne approaching Florida in September 2004 2016 Severe Weather Awareness Week th Thursday, February 25 is Hurricane and Flooding Awareness Day Once again, 2015 was a good year for Florida with no direct tropical storm or hurricane impacts, marking the second consecutive year this has happened. Despite our recent good fortune, history tells us that south Florida is one of the most vulnerable and hurricane-prone places in the country. On average, the center of a hurricane will pass within 50 miles of any point in South Florida every 6 to 8 years. This means that while hurricane strikes are typically not a yearly occurrence, statistics indicate that south Florida will at least be significantly threatened a few times a decade, and impacted directly by a hurricane at least once a decade. Indirect hurricane impacts as well as tropical storms passing over south Florida occur with higher frequency; at least every 2 or 3 years on average. Therefore, we can’t afford to become complacent. Be prepared every year for the possibility of a tropical storm or hurricane impacting our region. Even in years when not hit directly by a tropical storm or hurricane, systems can pass close enough to south Florida to cause some impacts. In 2013, the center of Tropical Storm Andrea passed well to our north, but the tail end of its associated cloud band impacted south Florida with tornadoes, torrential and severe flooding. Do not focus too much on the center of a tropical storm or hurricane, but on its potentially far-reaching impacts. -
“Hurricane Amnesia”?
Are We Suffering From “Hurricane Amnesia”? The ten year anniversary of Hurricane Charley in 2014, and a nagging feeling that I should revisit the hurricane shutter quotes I had solicited in the previous year, inspired me to take a closer look at the tropical storm history of the area around Burnt Store Marina. The disquieting conclusion from this research was that those shutters should be installed sooner, rather than later. We’ve had a good ten year run since Charley, and in fact, the last 50 or so years since Hurricane Alma in 1966 and Donna in 1960 have been relatively benign. The picture is a little different when we extend the search back 180 years to the beginning of reliable written history of the area, or the 145 years to the earliest data in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (“NOAA”) online storm tracking database1. Like almost all parts of Florida, Charlotte Harbor has had a stormy past. Weather watchers have developed a system for categorizing those tropical cyclones based on sustained surface wind velocity. Sustained surface wind velocity Categories of Tropical Cyclones using the Saffir-Simpson Scale 33 knots (38 mph or 62 km/hr) or less Tropical Depression 34-63 knots (39-73 mph or 63-118 km/hr) Tropical Storm 64-82 knots (74-95 mph or 119-153 km/h) Category 1 hurricane 83-95 knots (96-110 mph or 154-177 km/h) Category 2 hurricane 96-112 knots (111-129 mph or 178-208 km/h) Category 3 hurricane 113-136 knots (130-156 mph or 209-251 km/h) Category 4 hurricane 137 knots (157 mph or 252 km/h) or higher Category 5 hurricane 1 http://coast.noaa.gov/hurricanes Using the online NOAA website, it is possible to create an infinite number of map simulations of the tracks of past hurricanes and tropical storms for any part of the USA.