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Climate change

1 Why is it important?

Earth’s surface is warming rapidly, and our global climate -- biodiversity of higher temperatures, reduced is changing, with impacts already discernible to the and altered patterns of rainfall, and changes in present generation. Rising air temperatures, increasing the severity and frequency of extreme weather severity and frequency of heatwaves, changing rainfall and bushfire patterns with more extreme and frequent drought and -- coastal settlements, infrastructure and coastal flood, altered ocean temperature and chemistry, and ecosystems of sea level rise and storm surge sea level rise all present potential significant risks to our -- marine ecosystems, fisheries and aquaculture environment, economy, society and way of life. of warmer, more acidic oceans and altered South Australia is already seeing the effects of climate ocean currents change (Box 1). South Australia’s future climate challenges -- human health and infrastructure of an increased include: number and severity of heatwaves, bushfires and • securing a reliable urban water supply extreme weather events. • coping with the effects on -- agricultural productivity of higher temperatures, more frequent extreme weather events, reduced rainfall and greater variability of rainfall distribution

Opposite page: The junction of the River Murray with the Southern Ocean, 1846 State Library of South Australia B15276/43 70 Climate change In summary Aspect andobservation is changing. Sea temperature andacidityare increasing; salinity Oceans direction/strength, etc. variances basedonlocalgeomorphology, wind The globaltrend isforarise insealevel,with Sea level supplied andused. of totalinstalledcapacityandtheproportion Renewable energy hasincreased asaproportion state emissions(74%). Energy production isstillthedominantsource of Energy (air and seasurface)and extreme temperatures. The long-term trend isforincreases inaverage on record. The reporting periodincludes thewarmestyear Temperature The long-term trend isforadeclineinrainfall. wettest yearsonrecord. The reporting periodincludes thethird andfifth Rainfall State sources ofgreenhouse gasesare increasing. are increasing. Atmospheric concentrations ofgreenhouse gases the world. Per capitaemissionsare stilloneofthehighestin state product havedecreased. Per capitaemissionsandperunitofgross State greenhouse gasemissions Very poor • Assessment grade • • • • • Poor Good Very good ˜ ˜ ˜ ˜ ˜ ˜ In grade Confidence ˜ ˜ ˜ ˜ ˜ ˜ In trend 71 Climate change In trend ˜ ˜ Confidence In grade ˜ ˜ Very good Very Good Poor • • Evidence and consensus too low to make an assessment Evidence Limited evidence or limited consensus Adequate high-quality and high level of consensus evidence Assessment grade Assessment ™ › ˜ Very poor Very Very good Very Level of Level confidence Good Stable Unclear Poor • • Improving Deteriorating Very poor Very • • Grades Recent Recent trend The increased frequency of extreme events will of extreme frequency The increased services, infrastructure impact police, emergency maintenance, volunteers, etc. forestry will affect water supplies rainfall Reduced and agriculture. leading to increased, Climate variability has extreme and severity of some frequency increased weather events such as heatwaves. Marine and terrestrial biodiversity Marine and terrestrial negative to variable, with are in biodiversity Trends biological species ranges, changes in gene pools, dynamics. patterns and ecosystem and agriculture Human health, infrastructure, Aspect and observation Aspect and 72 Climate change Source: ClimateCommission(2013) • Drought • • Rainfall • • • • • Hot daysandheatwaves Box 1 reduced Australia’s agricultural output by26%. During 2002–03,drought isestimatedtohave as thetemperature increases. heavy rainfall eventswillbecomemore frequent Across Australia, itismore likelythannotthat year periodorwere verymuchaboveaverage. that eithersetall-time rainfall records foratwo- Over 2010–11,everystateandterritoryhadsites of losslife. significant natural hazard in Australia interms Centre hasshownthatheatwavesare themost Research attheNatural Hazards Research rapid thanclimatemodel projections. such daysrose Thisincrease to25.1. ismore but during2000–09theaverage numberof number ofdaysperyearabove35 °Cwas17.5, In Adelaide,thelong-term average (1961–1990) heatwave havebecomeevenhotter. have increased, andthehottestdaysduringa the duration andfrequency ofheatwaves in manypartsofAustralia. Over1971–2008, The nature ofheatwaveshasalready changed heatwave periods. during heatwaveperiodscompared withnon- total hospitaladmissionsof7%wasrecorded In Adelaide,from 1993to2006, anincrease in Australian region. surface temperatures onrecord forthe on record andincludedthehighestsea The summerof2012–13wasthehottest The criticaldecade:extreme weatherforSouthAustralia • Bushfires • • • • • • Sea levelrise • significantly at16of38weatherstationsacross measures ofbushfire threat,increased The Forest Fire oneofthe DangerIndex, by theendofcentury. analysis project asignificantincrease indrought nearly alloftheclimatemodelsusedinarecent For bothsouth-west Australia, andsouth-east almost 1%. reduced nationalgross domesticproduct by In 2006–07, itisestimatedthatdrought on record. into theMurray–Darling systemwere thelowest During thedrought of1997–2009, theinflows on average everyyear. called one-in-a-hundred-year eventwouldoccur A multiplyingfactorof100meansthataso- one thousand. hundred and,insomeplaces, byasmuch extreme events,typically byafactorofseveral lead toverylarge increases intheincidenceof cities, asealevelriseof0.5 metres would For coastalareas around Australia’s largest large impacts. the estimatesfor2100, leadstosurprisingly with 1990),whichliesnearthelowerendof A sealevelriseof0.5 metres (compared extending intoNovemberandMarch. a longerduration fire season,withfire weather Australia,south-east andhasbeenmanifestas The increase hasbeenmostprominent in the stationsrecording asignificantdecrease. Australia between1973and2010, withnoneof 73 Climate change Hallett wind farm Department of Manufacturing, Innovation, Trade, Resources and Energy Resources Department of Manufacturing, Innovation, Trade, 74 Climate change more urbanisedpopulation, whichdependsoncomplex change presents much larger achallenge fortoday’s and However,in thepast. recent human-induced climate Humanity hasdealtwithsmall variationsinclimate following thelastglacialperiod, knownastheHolocene. developed duringarelatively stableperiodofclimate variability. Modernhumancivilisationhas evolvedand evolutionary eventsandtimesofnatural climatic in palaeoanthropology showingacorrelation between to pastclimatechange,withagrowing bodyofwork linked Our evolutionaryhistorycanbe,atleastinpart, human influences. to pastclimatechangecanactamplifycurrent (Australian AcademyofScience2010).Processes similar us thatglobalclimateissensitivetosmallinfluences acidity andsealevel.Past climate changealsoshows and wateravailability, icecover, vegetation,ocean atmospheric andoceaniccirculation, rainfall patterns changes haveaffectedtheworlddramatically, altering The geologicalrecords showusthatpasttemperature Academy ofScience2010, CSIRO 2011). level ofgreenhouse gasesintheatmosphere (Australian of continentsandoceans,natural variationsinthe Earth’s orbitaround thesun,changingconfiguration than today, drivenbychangesinthesun’s intensity, yearsago;ithasbeenbothwarmer andcooler 4.5 billion has variedenormouslymanytimessinceEarthformed pattern ofweatheroverdecadesorlonger. Earth’s climate Climate changerefers tolong-term changeintheaverage 2.1 biology, oceanography, hydrology andgeology. change, includingatmosphericphysics,chemistry, disciplines contributetoourunderstandingofclimate sophisticated climatemodels.Anumberofscientific climate measurements from therecent pastand evidence from tree ringsandlakesediments,etc.), including ourhistoricclimaterecord (palaeoclimatic science hasbeenderivedfrom arange ofsources, Strong andclearevidencesupportingclimatechange 2 What doweknowaboutit? Past climatechange air temperature hasincreased bynearly1°CinAustralia 100 years from 1910to2009(Figure 1).Average surface land andovertheoceanrose byjustover0.7 °Cinthe Globalaveragethe geologicalpast. temperatures bothon Our current climateischangingfarmore rapidly thanin 2.2 systems (CSIRO 2011). infrastructure andgloballyinterdependent agricultural Academy ofScience2010). and changestoanimalplantbehaviour(Australian decreasing oceanalkalinity, shifting weathersystems, sea ice,increasing watervapourintheatmosphere, continued decreases intheextentandvolumeofarctic Greenland andAntarctic icesheets,sealevelrise, of mountainglaciersandicecaps,lossfrom the temperature: warmingoceans,widespread retreat that are consistentwiththeincrease inglobalaverage Around theworld,manychangeshavebeenobserved to persist. to risingtemperatures, andthisdrying trend islikely in southernAustralia since1970, whichhasbeenlinked 2011). There hasbeenacleardeclineinaverage rainfall were thewarmestsincerecords beganin1900(BoM and temperatures forthepastdecade(2001to2010) temperatures havebeenrisingsteadilysincethe1970s, the past100 years(CSIRO 2011).SouthAustralian average past 50 yearswarmingatnearlytwicetherate asover 2011). Therate ofglobalwarmingisincreasing, withthe will continuetorise(ClimateCSIRO Commission 2011a, and SouthAustralia, higherthantheglobalaverage, and Current climatechange 75 Climate change normal weather variability should not be confused with The global temperature. in average a sustained increase between an ice global temperature in average difference period is only 5 °C. age and an interglacial closely correlate increases temperature Because future with the cumulative emissions of the main greenhouse emissions growth dramatic gas—carbon dioxide—the mitigation in developing nations highlights the urgent levels in developed nations, coupled with the very rapid the very rapid levels in developed nations, coupled with particularly industrialisation of many developing nations, Not only are China and India (Anderson and Bows 2011). at which they but the rate global emissions increasing, actual Between 2003 and 2007, is growing. increasing are faster than the highest emissions at a rate emissions rose slowdown due to scenario (A1FI) and, despite a temporary a record reached emissions growth the global recession, et al 2012). high in 2009 and 2010 (IEA 2011, Peters warming of 2 °C In the late 1990s, a globally averaged as the guardrail above pre-industrial levels was proposed start to beyond which the effects of climate change risks and impacts on water supplies, have dangerous coasts and human health ecosystems, food production, Union 2004, 2011). CSIRO the European of (Council between of 2 °C as the threshold The characterisation climate change is premised acceptable and ‘dangerous’ on an early assessment of the scope and scale of the however, research, recent accompanying impacts. More the impacts associated with 2 °C sufficiently has revised as extremely that 2 °C can now be regarded upwards (Anderson and Bows 2011). A 2 °C warming dangerous’ used to greater are may not sound significant—we on a day-to-day basis—but fluctuations temperature climate system responds to these emissions. It should these emissions. It to responds climate system of a significant period is generally there be noted that system inputs of the climate changes to the time before these long of As a result changes to the system. in result in gas concentrations existing greenhouse system lags, Earth to a further warming will commit the atmosphere levels of emissions of future irrespective of 0.5 °C, (CSIRO 2011). gas emission scenarios greenhouse A number of future Panel by the Intergovernmental have been published Climate models have (Box 2). (IPCC) on Climate Change warming to be estimated for these enabled projected scenarios. While it is considered emissions different assess which emissions scenarios too early to reliably reduce the lack of global effort to likely, the more are attention on the high-end emissions has focused recent (Betts et al. 2011). Since scenarios for mapping our future there in 2000, produced the emissions pathways were in global emissions increases have been unprecedented high emissions ongoing gases, reflecting of greenhouse temperature change, 1880s to the change, 1880s to the temperature present Global annual mean surface air The future of climate change The future Causes of climate change NASA and GISS (2012) The blue bars show uncertainty estimates. The blue bars show uncertainty Projections of future climate are dependent on the level are climate of future Projections gas emissions and how the human greenhouse of future Commission 2011b). 2.2.2 these relate more to precise timescales or magnitudes timescales to precise more these relate impacts and do not affect the major of expected future Climate Academy of Science 2010, conclusions (Australian period and continues to advance strongly. period and continues to advance strongly. Given the complexity of the climate system, some in the science of climate change, but uncertainties remain agricultural and industrial revolutions (Australian (Australian and industrial revolutions agricultural Academy of Science 2010). Scientific understanding of climate change has been built over a long anthropogenic There is compelling evidence that the recent global is compelling evidence that the recent There by human emissions warming is being caused largely gases, emitted since the start of the of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide trap energy emitted by Earth energy trap gases such as carbon dioxide would be—and keep the planet warmer than it otherwise than a century ago. was established more incoming solar radiation but absorb outgoing radiation, but absorb outgoing radiation, incoming solar radiation and surface of warming the lower atmosphere thereby the planet. The basic physical principle—that greenhouse to incoming short-wave solar radiation but absorb the solar radiation to incoming short-wave emitted by Earth. This means longer wavelength radiation gases have little effect on that atmospheric greenhouse Greenhouse gases are those gases in Earth’s atmosphere atmosphere Earth’s those gases in gases are Greenhouse transparent They are that selectively absorb radiation. 2.2.1 Figure 1 Figure Note: Source: 76 Climate change stable sincetheendoflast iceage. particularly inthepastfewdecades, afterbeingrelatively gases havebeenrisingoverthe past250 years,but reveal thatatmosphericconcentrations ofgreenhouse of airtrapped inicecores (Figure 2). Theseobservations Grim inTasmania) and,forpasteras, from theanalysis monitoring stationsaround theworld(includingCape known from recent measurements takenata numberof Atmospheric concentrations ofgreenhouse gasesare changed agricultural practices anddeforestation. (e.g. cement production), andreducing sinksthrough the burningoffossilfuelsandindustrialprocesses by increasing sources ofgreenhouse gases,such as have increased theconcentration ofgreenhouse gases gases from theatmosphere (sinks). Humanactivities of emissionsgases(sources) andtheremoval of concentrations ofgreenhouse gasesare thenetresult temperaturelife-supporting onEarth.Atmospheric very smallconcentrations butacttomaintainawarmer, effect iscausedbyseveral different gasesthatexistin Thenaturalalmost nowarmingeffect. greenhouse nitrogen andoxygen—non-greenhouse gasesthatexert Earth’s atmosphere consistsmainly(about 99%)of 2.3 and theimplicationsthesehaveforadaptationplanning. climate change understanding oftheimpactshigh-end reductions inglobalemissions,weneedtoincrease our Given thedifficultyofachieving rapidandlarge 2011b, CSIRO 2011,Newetal.2011). and Bows2011,Bettsetal.ClimateCommission by asearly2060–70 are muchmore likely(Anderson rises of3 °Cor4 °C(relative tothepre-industrialperiod) temperature increase andtemperature atorbelow2 °C, little tonochanceofmaintainingtheglobalmeansurface concerted mitigativeactionataglobalscale,there isnow of recentwithoutimmediate, analysessuggestthat, CSIRO 2011,GarnautNewetal.2011).Anumber reductions are required (Climate Commission2011b, gas emissionsare insufficient—rapid, deepandongoing that long-term gradual reductions inglobalgreenhouse atmosphere. Thelatestscientificassessmentsemphasise existing greenhouse gasestoberemoved from the timescales andpathwaystostabilisation,forsome reduced toverynearzero andeven,dependingon atmospheric concentrations requires emissionstobe concentrations, rather thanstabilisethem.Stabilising will onlyslowtherate ofincrease ofatmospheric task before us.Reducing theemissionsofcarbondioxide Concentrations ofgreenhouse gases oceans andlandvegetationaspartofthenatural CO change (CSIRO 2011). largest singlecontributortohuman-inducedclimate influence of CO of years(Australian Academy ofScience2010).The remains intheclimatesystemforhundreds tothousands CO greenhouse gasesonEarth’s temperature 2011). (WMO about 64%ofradiative forcing—the influenceof atmosphere iscarbondioxide (CO The secondmostprevalent greenhouse gasinthe warms, providing anamplifyingeffect. atmospheric concentration increases astheatmosphere although itisnotdirectly influencedbyhumans,its Science 2010).Itisanimportantgreenhouse gasbecause, the present-day greenhouse effect(Australian Academyof abundant greenhouse gasandaccountsforabouthalfof atmosphere aspartofthewatercycle,ismost Water vapour, whichexistsnaturally inthelower century to389.6 ppminJune 2012(CSIRO 2012a).CO from 278 partspermillion(ppm) inthemid-18th CO exchanges were largely inbalance.Sinceindustrialisation, carbon cycle.Before humaninfluences,thesenatural decades, emissionsfrom humanactivitiesexceeded those emissions are thedominant natural source, inrecent but, warming effectthan CO concentration intheatmosphere, CH 2011).Althoughatalower contributing about18%(WMO gas intermsofitsimpactonthe radiative imbalance, Methane (CH economies (CSIRO 2011). rapid Indiaanddeveloping economic growth inChina, emissions since2000, coincidingwithaperiodof 2010). There hasbeenarecent acceleration ofCO concentrations torise(Australian Academy ofScience 45% remaining inthe airandcausingatmospheric by natural ocean andlandsinks,withtheremaining Just overhalfoftheemissionsCO during thecolderseasons. plant growth absorbsthegas,andthengoesupagain falls duringtheNorthernHemisphere’s summerwhen observatory startedin1956.) Theconcentration ofCO rate thanpreviously. (Continuous monitoringatthe 2013, 25%higherthanin1960, andincreasing atafaster Loa ObservatoryinHawaii,peakedat400 ppmon4 May Hemisphere’s CO and deforestation (reducing sinks). TheNorthern fossil fuels(increasing sources ofgreenhouse gases) levels are risingmainlyasaresult oftheburning 2 2 2 isconstantlytransferred betweentheatmosphere, isalsoanimportantgasbecauseasignificantfraction concentrations haveincreased byabout40%, 4 ) isthenextmostimportantgreenhouse 2 ontheradiation balanceofEarthisthe 2 concentration, asmeasured atMauna 2 foragivenmass.Wetland 2 ), whichcontributes 2 4 havebeenabsorbed hasamuchhigher 2

2 2

77 Climate change ) emissions for 1990–2008 and 2009 ) emissions for 1990–2008 2 Annual industrial carbon dioxide (CO Annual industrial carbon dioxide Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emissions scenarios Climate Change on Panel Intergovernmental Manning et al. (2010) of all 40 emission 2009. Emissions fall within the range represents and the open circle the years 1990–2008, represent Black circles special report. The inset in the upper left of the IPCC lines) marker scenarios (coloured and six illustrative scenarios (grey shaded area) corner shows these scenarios to the year 2000. Figure A Figure increase surface temperature warming for A1FI is a 4.5 °C global average estimate of future The best IPCC above of 2.9–6.9 °C with a likely range levels; Figure A), 4 °C above 1980–99 above pre-industrial levels (or assessment report, of the fourth IPCC 2007). Since the release 2000, pre-industrial levels by 2100 (IPCC climate models supports a best estimate of recent the more evidence available from in 2007, produced rise of 4 °C by by the 2090s, with a temperature to pre-industrial temperatures 5 °C rise relative around in the 2060s (Betts et al. 2011). reached the 4 °C could be strong, the 2070s. If carbon cycle feedbacks are rises, reflecting temperature The other scenarios describe a world with lower emissions and corresponding adoption of clean and efficient technologies. and different rates of change in economic structures differing has established a new set of emissions pathways, known as the Representative the IPCC Recently, impact assessment as the basis for the next stage of scenario modelling and Pathways, Concentration based on different in that they are the earlier emissions pathways et al. 2010). These differ from (Moss gas concentrations. of greenhouse levels of planned mitigation and consider a wider range Source: Note: The projected emissions from the IPCC special report are shown in Figure A. Since 2005, shown in Figure global GHG are special report the IPCC from emissions The projected A1B and A1FI. scenario range—between above the middle of the IPCC’s to track emissions have continued world with by an integrated characterised scenario is the highest emissions category, The A1FI emissions 9 billion in mid- a global population that reaches an emphasis on fossil fuels and economic growth, rapid greenhouse future to be one of a number of plausible the IPCC by scenario is considered The A1FI century. action. global society does not take mitigative if our gas projections Box 2 Box Panel by the Intergovernmental published scenarios were gas emissions greenhouse of future A number Meteorological by the World jointly established was 2000). The IPCC (IPCC Change (IPCC) on Climate to assess the scientific, socio- technical and Programme Environment the United Nations and Organization 2000). The change (IPCC the risk of human-induced climate for understanding relevant economic information assumptions different until 2000 and then reflect based on observed emissions emissions scenarios are IPCC (Betts et al. 2011). and technological development global population, economic growth about future 78 Climate change (WMO 2011). (WMO Fossilmanagement. fuelburningalsoproduces N soil cultivation,fertiliseruseandlivestockmanure anthropogenic source ofN industrialisation, to324.1 ppb. Agriculture isthemain and concentrations haveincreased by20%since the overall globalincrease inradiative imbalance, Nitrous oxide (N lifetimes thanCO greenhouse gaseswithmuchlongeratmospheric replace CFCs, are rapidly increasing. Theseare potent damaging totheozonelayerandsoare beingusedto layer, concentrations ofHCFCs andHFCs, whichare less as aresult ofinternationalactiontoprotect theozone CFC concentrations are decreasing intheatmosphere contribute about12%toradiative imbalance.Although used inrefrigeration andair-conditioning systems, (HCFCs) andhydrofluorocarbons (HFCs)—which are chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), hydrochlorofluorocarbons Human-made syntheticgreenhouse gases— permafrost inthisrecent increase. the possiblerole ofthethawingCH again since2007. Scientistsare currently investigating slowed between1999and2006buthasbeenincreasing The long-term upward trend inCH through chemicaldegradation. biomass burning.CH landfill waste;lossesfrom coal,oilandgasextraction; and arise from ruminantlivestockproduction; ricecultivation; billion (ppb) Human-inducedCH inJune 2012. more than150%sinceindustrialisationto1763.7 partsper Atmospheric concentrations ofCH from natural sources bytwo-fold ormore (CSIRO 2011). 2 O) hascontributedabout6%of 2 . 4 isremoved from theatmosphere 2 O emissions,including 4 4 atmosphericlevels haveincreased by 4 -rich northern 4 emissions 2 O Figure 2 Sources: Note: on airextracted from icesamplescollectedfrom Antarctica (LawDome). Cape Grimmeasurements are from 1976;oldermeasurements are based Bureau ofMeteorology, CSIRO (2012a) Atmospheric concentrations ofcarbon dioxide, methaneandnitrous oxide 79 Climate change and the

Climate change (Suppiah et al. 2006), These reports are based are These reports Climate change under enhanced greenhouse Climate change under enhanced greenhouse 2010). Southern and Atlantic oceans is also occurring (Climate is also occurring (Climate oceans and Atlantic Southern 2011b). Commission also show a warming surface temperatures Global sea while the temperatures by 0.7 °C, on average rising trend, have Australia waters surrounding of the surface 2011). since 1900 (CSIRO 0.9 °C by about increased additional average for projected The latest best estimates 1990 to from for South Australia increases temperature to 1.5 °C, on region depending 0.8 °C from 2030 range additional (Table 1). By 2070, and emissions scenario to be between 1.2 °C and 3.5 °C,warming is expected temperature These regional with 1990. compared by the South Australian produced have been projections a from and Development Institute (SARDI) Research contained in the 2006 synthesis of the projections report CSIRO conditions in South Australia of Meteorology and Bureau 2007 CSIRO technical report. in Australia: (SARDI for the IPCC on global climatic models prepared from the 1961–90 average the from Long-term trend in South Australia’s average temperature, measured as the difference as the difference measured temperature, average in South Australia’s trend Long-term climate Observed and projected changes in changes and projected Observed Figure 3 Figure Source: Climate Commission (2013) Source: indicate that warming of the deeper waters of both the indicate that warming of the deeper waters moderated by the vast amounts of heat that the oceans by the vast amounts moderated decades. The upper layer of the have absorbed in recent recent observations and ocean has warmed significantly, (CSIRO 2011). (CSIRO has been the atmosphere of warming of The rate rapidly than maximum (daytime) temperatures over temperatures (daytime) than maximum rapidly has also been an overall There most of the 20th century. while the of heatwaves, in the frequency increase has decreased cold weather of extremely frequency rise—approximately 1 °C—in South Australia (Figure 3). Australia South 1 °C—in rise—approximately more increased temperatures Minimum (overnight) trend is continuing. The past decade (2000–09) has been The past decade (2000–09) has been is continuing. trend 2011). began in 1900 (CSIRO the warmest since records has been a steady temperature there 1950, around From Commission 2011a), a greater increase than the global increase a greater Commission 2011a), has Most of this increase value of about 0.7 °C. average this and half of the 20th century, in the second occurred 2.4.1Temperature has surface air temperature South Australian The average over the past 100 years (Climate risen by just under 1 °C Global climate change will affect South Australian Australian South change will affect Global climate and rainfall. temperature 2.4 80 Climate change (Climate Commission 2011b). Annular Mode, whichoperates inthehigherlatitudes Pacific Ocean;theIndianOceanDipole;andSouthern El Niño–Southern Oscillation,relating tothetropical most importantimpactonAustralian rainfall are the region toregion. The modesofvariabilitywiththe being naturally highlyvariableovertime and from circulation patterns;thisresults inAustralia’s rainfall in relative seasurfacetemperatures andatmospheric by several modes ofnatural variabilitycausedbychanges Year-to-year anddecadalrainfall inAustralia isinfluenced (CSIRO 2010). atmospheric circulation associatedwithglobalwarming to changes inlarge-scale been linked,atleastinpart, decline inSouthAustralian rainfall since 1970, whichhas of thenorthandwest(Figure 4).There hasbeenaclear but increasing springandsummerrainfall inmanyparts winter rainfall overthesouth,eastandwesternfringes, with ageneral trend towards decreasing lateautumnand Australia’s rainfall haschangedoverrecent decades, Rainfall 2.4.2 Source: Note: Table 1 region South Australian NRM South East SA Murray–Darling Basin SA AridLands Northern andYorke Kangaroo Island Eyre Peninsula Alinytjara Wilurara Ranges Adelaide andMountLofty represent regional outcomes. on low-resolution globalmodelresults thatmaynotaccurately is someuncertaintyintheregional projections astheyare based no difference underthelowandhighemissionsscenarios.There the lagtimesofclimatesystem,andtherefore showlittleor estimates are largely insensitivetofuture emissionsbecauseof methods andafullrange ofresults. Notealsothatthe2030 scenario. Seethe source documentfor a descriptionofthe percentile andrange from alowemissionstohigh SARDI (2010) The temperature ranges are bestestimatesbasedonthe50th Best estimateoftherange high emissionsscenario Australia (relative to1990)forlow– temperature increase inSouth of annualaverage additional 0.8–1.5 0.8–1.0 2030 (°C) 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8

1.3–2.3 1.2–2.8 1.8–3.5 1.3–2.8 1.3–2.8 1.2–2.3 1.6–3.5 1.3–2.8 2070 (°C)

b a Southern Hemisphere thatbringstorm systems, cold strong westerly windsinthemidtohigh latitudesofthe Oscillation) reflects movementof thenorth–south Southern AnnularMode(also knownastheAntarctic behaviour ofthesenatural modes(IPCC 2010).The atmospheric circulation and maybealteringthe Higher temperatures andwarmingoceans affect of Western Australia (CSIRO 2011). 15–30 years Australia insouth-eastern andthesouth-west historical natural variationshasemerged overthepast a pronounced dryingtrend thatislarge compared with detected likelysignalsofclimatechange.Inparticular, area ofactiveresearch), anumberofrecent studieshave influences on rainfall from natural variations(thisisan Although ithasbeendifficulttodistinguishhuman Figure 4 Source: BoM (2012a) (millimetres per10years), 1970–2011 Australian totalannualrainfall Trends in(a) Australian and(b) South 81 Climate change Adelaide skyline Barbara Hardy Institute Hardy Barbara year period from 1997 to 2009, known as the millennium year period from was the driest in the last 110 years of rainfall drought, was unprecedented The millennium drought records. to southern Australia; constrained in that it was largely was an absence of wet months and wet years; and there from decline differed the seasonal pattern of rainfall occurring mainly in with reductions droughts, previous contributed autumn. The change in seasonality of rainfall flow: soils stream in high drop to a disproportionately drier at the start of the run-off more season because were by vegetation and dry soils was taken up winter rain 2011, 2012b). (CSIRO Recent research has also shown that much of the has also shown research Recent in southern South decline since 1970 rainfall observed in atmospheric is linked to changes and Victoria Australia 2010, (CSIRO of the tropics via an expansion circulation part of is a fundamental The Hadley Circulation 2012b). It is the atmospheric circulation the global climate system. the equator. from warm, dry air poleward that transports band of an east–west it creates As this cools and sinks, ridge known as the subtropical high atmospheric pressure (including of both hemispheres over the mid-latitudes for the relative and is responsible southern Australia) aridity at these latitudes. half of the year (November to April), During the warmer continent sits south of the Australian ridge the subtropical It then fronts. rain-bearing and acts to block southern allowing thereby moves north during the cooler months, The southern Australia. to reach autumn and winter rains ridge has been expanding and intensity of the subtropical well and this correlates since 1970, in strength increasing over this time. The 13- with rising global temperatures settled (Darren Ray, Senior Meteorologist/Climatologist, Senior Meteorologist/Climatologist, Ray, settled (Darren Climate Services Centre, Regional South Australian comm., 24 April 2010). pers. of Meteorology, Bureau spring and summer rainfall in Australia. Climate model in Australia. spring and summer rainfall support this weakening over coming decades, forecasts is ongoing and is still not in this area but the research a weakening of the Walker Circulation in the Pacific and in the Pacific Circulation a weakening of the Walker phase of the leading to conditions similar to the El Niño linked to lower Southern Oscillation. El Niño events are There is some evidence to suggest that global warming is There the likelihood of dry states associated with the increasing 2010), by causing Oscillation (CSIRO El Niño–Southern has been decreasing (Abram et al. 2008, Cai et al. 2008, (Abram has been decreasing et al. 2008, BoM 2012c). Ihara spring rainfall over southern Australia. The number of The over southern Australia. spring rainfall since 1950 (reaching been increasing positive events has while the over the past decade), high frequency a record rainfall) number of negative events (bringing increased usual waters in the tropical west,tropical and cooler than normal usual waters in the in the tropical circulation) ocean to altered waters (due in late winter and east. with a reduction This is associated The Indian Ocean Dipole is a measure of differences in in of differences is a measure The Indian Ocean Dipole equatorial of the western and eastern the temperatures event is caused by warmer than Indian Ocean. A ‘positive’ Antarctic, leading to reduced winter rainfall over southern over southern winter rainfall leading to reduced Antarctic, (BoM 2012b). Australia several decades, there has been an increasing tendency tendency an increasing has been there decades, several ‘positive’ phase, with in a to remain for this mode the towards contracted winds remaining the westerly fronts and rainfall to southern Australia. Over the past Over the to southern Australia. rainfall and fronts 82 Climate change not accurately represent regional outcomes. model results, cautionshouldbeexercised, astheymay Institute. Sincetheyare basedonlow-resolution global by theSouthAustralian Research andDevelopment projections. TheestimatesinTable 2 havebeenproduced possibilities isrelatively large compared withtemperature much harder topredict thantemperature, therange of particularly inautumnandwinter. Sincerainfall is in annualrainfall across allregions ofSouthAustralia, vary byregion, butshowthepossibilityofdecreases Estimates forreductions inrainfall forSouthAustralia Commission 2011a). risks toagriculture andurbanwatersupplies(Climate together withhighertemperatures, posessignificant Australia’s dryingtrend islikelytocontinue,andthis, southern Australia sits(CSIRO 2011).Consequently, South will bedecreased rainfall inthemid-latitudes,where all globalclimatemodelsgenerally agree thatthere of confidenceastemperature predictions; however, Rainfall predictions donothaveashighadegree the expansionofHadleyCirculation (CSIRO 2012b). rainfalls continuedtobebelowaverage, consistentwith climate becomesdrier. In2011,lateautumnandwinter Abundant rainfall canstillbeexpectedevenif, overall, the surface temperatures onrecord tothenorthofAustralia. Southern AnnularMode,coupledwiththewarmestsea and wetphasesoftheIndianOceanDipole (the wetphaseoftheElNiño–SouthernOscillation), 2010–11 were brought aboutbyastrong La Niñaevent important ininfluencingstream flow. Record rainfallsin The expansionoftropical influencesonclimatewillbe season rainfall falls. willbeoffsetbyhigherwarm-season It isalsouncertaintowhatextentthereduced cool- eastern Australia maynotbe asreliable inthefuture. season ofwatersupplysystemsacross mostofsouth- planning andmanagementisthatthetraditional filling One oftheimplicationsthesefindingsforwater Table 2 rainfall season. spring andsummer, rather thanthenormalsouthern 2010). Thisrainfall wasunusualbecauseitfellduring Centre, Bureau of Meteorology, pers.comm.,24 April SouthAustralianClimatologist, Regional ClimateServices La Niñaevents(Darren Ray, SeniorMeteorologist/ past twoyears,coincidingwithstrong, record-breaking rainfall fallingacross Australia south-eastern overthe variability, suchasLaNiñaevents,seenwithrecord may particularlyoccurduringwetterphasesofnatural and warmeroceansaround Australia (CSIRO 2011).This rainfall events,drivenbyawarmer, wetteratmosphere increase infloodriskduetoanincrease inextreme Despite adeclineinaverage rainfall, there maybean Source: Note: management region South Australian natural resource South East SA Murray–Darling Basin SA AridLands Northern andYorke Kangaroo Island Eyre Peninsula Alinytjara Wilurara Adelaide andMountLofty Ranges the lowandhighemissionsscenarios. future emissionsandtherefore showlittleornodifference under results. Notealsothatthe2030estimatesare largely insensitiveto emissions scenario. Seethesource document forthefullrange of the 50thpercentile andrange from alowemissionstohigh SARDI (2010) These rainfall reduction ranges are abestestimatebasedon Best estimateoftherange of emissions scenario (relative to1990)foralow–high additional rainfall reductions 3.5–4 2030 (%) 3–4 3.5 3.5 4.5 3 3 3

7.5–15 7.5–15 2070 (%) 8–15 8–10 7–30 8–15 8–15 8–15

83 Climate change and reductions in numbers of regional species, including in numbers of regional and reductions the giant cuttlefish, seem to be in the short term algal excessive levels from connected to low oxygen and could blooms caused by high sea water temperature, in the long term to climate change drivers. be related draw more insufficient data at this time to are There definite conclusions about the causes. habitat disruption. The leafy sea dragon, South Australia’s South Australia’s habitat disruption. The leafy sea dragon, storm events marine emblem, is likely to suffer from caused by ocean warming, and habitat degradation Pecl 2011, acidification and sea level rise (NCCARF et al. 2011). 10 most valuable A risk assessment of South Australia’s species has indicated that wild fishery and aquaculture blacklip and greenlip lobster, rock 4 of these (southern whiting) at high risk from abalone, and King George are Australian potential climate change impacts. The South zones of upwelling. coastline has two gulfs, which are the deep ocean to Upwelling brings nutrients from food for marine ecosystems. shallower waters, providing environment Effects of climate change on the marine and intensity of may lead to changes in the frequency upwelling events, potentially affecting food availability for southern bluefin tuna and the abundance of sardines. such as overfishing, pollution, habitat Other stressors, from the threat likely to exacerbate loss and disease, are sea water et al. 2011). Increased climate change (Pecl competition from expected to increase are temperatures marine pests to the detriment of native species. evidence of deaths of fish and marine mammals, Recent Projected climate change impacts on South Australia’s on South Australia’s change impacts climate Projected to be large likely are marine environments highly diverse inverse estuaries (where Seamounts and and negative. as the open ocean, such saline than is more the water Gulf)the Spencer waters to corrosive could be subjected many of the occurrence or reduce that will preclude such as molluscs, and the larval stages species, calcareous in ocean temperature Increases species. of all commercial species of kelp to of several causing the range are species and in some cases these southwards, contract coastal waters close to from disappearing altogether are impact of ocean warming and Adelaide. The combined The to be profound. is predicted acidification on kelp of high marine and Bight is a region Australian Great by and many species will be affected coastal biodiversity, increased and weakening of ocean currents the projected sea lion, The endemic Australian ocean temperatures. in South Australia, 80% of the population of which occurs climate that is at high risk from animal is a non-migratory and food availability of reduced change as a result and risk of disease, due to rising temperatures increased released by human released 2 Impacts on oceans and marine Impacts on oceans ecosystems climate change climate Observed and projected impacts of impacts and projected Observed are absorbed by the Southern Ocean. The Southern are 2 specialised environments, and the impacts of climate specialised environments, change will differ among them (Hobday et al. 2008). circulation), altered river run-off into the coastal altered circulation), events (such in extreme and an increase environment will significantly affect marine life. as floods and storms) is diverse, with many marine environment Australia’s and still largely unknown. In addition to altered ocean unknown. In addition to altered and still largely winds and chemistry, rainfall, currents, temperature, by the ocean changes in the nutrient supply (provided Climate change represents a significant risk to the Climate change represents sustainability of ecosystems, fisheries and aquaculture complex potential impacts are however, in Australia; is warming, and becoming less saline and more acidic,is warming, and becoming less saline and more 2011). CRC changing (ACE are while ocean currents CO Ocean also influences weather patterns over southern Observations indicate that the Southern Ocean Australia. system and carbon cycle, because of the unique ocean system and carbon cycle, because of the of heat and about amounts Vast in this region. currents anthropogenic 40% of the total global ocean uptake of and winds. Ocean currents are a key component in the a key are and winds. Ocean currents 2011). The the planet (CSIRO distribution of heat around in the global climate Southern Ocean plays a critical role Ocean currents are changing as a result of altered of altered changing as a result are Ocean currents evaporation, to increased patterns of salinity (related ocean temperature ice melt and changing rainfall), that form carbonate shells, such as corals and plankton. that form carbonate shells, such as corals the marine food a critical part of are These organisms 2011). chain (CSIRO also absorbed about 30% of the CO Further their acidity. activities during this time, increasing organisms effects on acidification could have profound (ACE CRC 2011). The increasing heat content of the oceans heat content of the The increasing 2011). CRC (ACE evidence further measurable and sea level rise provide 2011). Oceans have of the warming of the planet (CSIRO atmosphere. More than 90% of the extra heat energy heat energy than 90% of the extra More atmosphere. over the past 50 years has been by the planet stored expand and rise absorbed in the ocean, causing them to 2.5.1 of warming in the oceans slow the rate The world’s and impacts on infrastructure and water supplies will and water supplies and impacts on infrastructure increase. We are already seeing changes in both marine and changes in both seeing already are We are climate change. We ecosystems due to terrestrial and health, in human agriculture starting to see impacts 2.5 84 Climate change extinctions thiscenturyandbeyond(Steffen etal.2009). events, withahighriskofanaccelerating waveof pose athreat akintopastgeologicalmass-extinction Both themagnitudeandrate offuture climatechange mining (Steffen et al.2009). fertiliser andchemicaluse,urbanisation,agriculture and highly modifiedandovercommitted water resources, biodiversity from vegetationclearing,introduced species, 2010). Climatechangeisexacerbating existingthreats to flora suchas theSouth(TREND Australian donkey orchid regimes insouthernAustralia andtheearlierfloweringof species tohigheraltitudesorlatitudes,changingfire warming. Examples includethemigration ofseveral bird are already underwaywithonlyamodestamountof and globalobservationsshowthatsignificantimpacts dynamics (Climate Commission2011b). Australian species ranges, timingofbiologicaleventsandecosystem warming Earth,withobservedchangesingenepools, Ecosystems are responding inaconsistentwayto disturbance ofpredator–prey relationships. 2010). Indirect effectsfrom climatechangealsoinclude ecological communitiesandecosystems(Hugheset al. changes inthestructure andcompositionofmany responses byspeciestoclimatechangewillresult in severity ofextreme events(Steffen etal.2009).Different of precipitation, andchangesinthefrequency and species through increasing temperatures, altered patterns and decomposition.Indirectly, climatechangeactson as photosynthesis,plantgrowth, water-use efficiency can directly affectimportantphysiologicalprocesses, such on species.Increasing atmosphericCO Climate changewillhavebothdirect andindirect impacts infrastructure from stormsurges (Hughesetal.2010). sectors, suchascoastalwetlandsthatprotect human ecosystems isimportanttoassistadaptationinother and ethicalvalues.Maintainingbiodiversityhealthy 2009). Terrestrial heritage biodiversityalsohasintrinsic, resources formedicines,food,fibre andfuel(Steffen etal. pest control andpollinationservices,aswellgenetic water quality, climateregulation, erosion control, and It provides uswithfresh water, regulation ofairand system. Biodiversity isacriticalpartofourlife-support diversity, withmanyspeciesuniquetothecontinent. Australia andSouthAustralia bothhaverichspecies 2.5.2 Impacts onterrestrial plants andanimals 2 concentrations the 2009event—with four consecutivedaysover43 °C, heatwave (BoM2009,DCCEE 2012a).Theintensityof night inJanuary2009duringanotherexceptional temperatures andrecorded above35 °C, itshottest for anAustralian city, with15 consecutivedaysof 2011b). InMarch 2008,Adelaide setaheatwaverecord significantly overthepastdecade (Climate Commission high temperature extremes inAustralia hasincreased intensity ofextreme weatherevents.Thenumberof disproportionately large increase inthefrequency and Average temperature increases of1–2 °C canleadtoa (CSIRO 2011). through social,economicanddemographic disruptions through impactsonnatural systemsonwhichwerely and floods andstorms.Indirectly, itaffectshumanhealth a riseinextreme eventssuchasheatwaves,bushfires, Climate changeaffectshumanhealthdirectly through 2.5.3 • • • • Infrastructure impactsare predicted toinclude: level rise(CSIRO 2011). regimes, altered groundwater andsoilconditions,sea is atriskfrom highertemperatures, changedrainfall such asbushfire, stormsandfloods,builtinfrastructure In additiontothepotentialdamagefrom extreme events infrastructure (Climate Commission2011a). fatalities, injuriesandburns,lossofbuildings bushfire frequency andintensity, resulting inhuman days anddrierconditionsinSouthAustralia increases The combinationofagreater numberofextremely hot infection (DoctorsfortheEnvironment Australia 2011). such asdenguefever, malariaandRoss Rivervirus by thespread infectiousdiseases ofmosquito-borne Human healthispredicted tobeadverselyaffected heart disease(Nitschkeetal.2011). a steepincrease inmortalityfrom bothrenal andischemic accompanied byunusuallyhotnights—has beenlinkedto flooding andbushfires piping causedbyhighertemperatures, increased damage tobuildingfoundations andgaswater degradation ofroad andbuildingmaterials, and intense andfrequent storm surges stormwater infrastructure androads, duetomore and damagetocoastalinfrastructure, including exacerbated coastal erosion, coastalinundation hail intensityduringstorms structural damage duetoincreased windspeedand the capacityofstormwateranddrainage infrastructure increased floodingdueto rainfall eventsthatexceed infrastructure, agriculture andforestry Impacts onhumanhealth, 85 Climate change Angus Kennedy $27 billion have been identified as at risk of inundation as at risk of inundation have been identified $27 billion 2009). (DCCEE and more rainfall reduced temperatures, Increased to expected events are weather extreme frequent Australia. in South production and livestock crop reduce have regions agricultural South Australia’s Since 1997, season rainfall. decline in growing experienced a marked risk at greater are and plantation industries Forestry 2012a). Viticulture 2011, DCCEE (CSIRO bushfire from change on a number of fronts, is sensitive to climate extreme mean temperature, including changes in quality and quantity of the rainfall, temperatures, and the atmospheric water available for irrigation, et al. gases (Hayman of greenhouse concentrations 2009). are of evaporation and higher rates rainfall Reduced reliability of South the reduce expected to significantly in less water being resulting water supply, Australia’s industry available for irrigation, domestic use and (CSIRO 2011). Moon over eroded mesas near the Painted Hills, Woomera Prohibited Area Prohibited Hills, Woomera mesas near the Painted Moon over eroded rail buckling and signal failure, and road fatigue, due fatigue, due road and signal failure, buckling and rail temperatures to increased in electricity demand surges from power disruptions (Engineers heatwaves frequent more caused by 2010). Australia up to 43 000 residential buildings, with a value of up to 43 000 residential at buildings valued and 1500 commercial $7.4 billion, Coastal environments such as beaches, estuaries, Coastal environments at risk of salinisation islands are wetlands and low-lying In South Australia, and inundation in the coming decades. climate change) will also contribute to extreme short- also contribute to extreme climate change) will events, which may become term coastal inundation in many coastal places. and frequent severe increasingly roads and railways. Mean sea level rise may lead to Mean sea level rise may and railways. roads Sea areas. inundation of low-lying eventual permanent of storminess as a result with more level rise (combined sea level rise presents a widespread risk of inundation a widespread sea level rise presents residential housing, stock of and damage to a significant such as ports, buildings and infrastructure, commercial With most of Australia’s settlements in the coastal region, coastal region, settlements in the With most of Australia’s • • 86 Climate change Figure 5 Source: CO come primarilyfrom theburningoffossilfuels(coal, oil Emissions ofgreenhouse gasesfrom humansources produce approximately 83%ofglobalemissions(Table 3). greenhouse gasemissions:the25largest emitters small numberofcountriesproduce themajorityof the largest increases Arelatively comingafter1945. steeply sincethestartofindustrialrevolution, with Global emissionsofgreenhouse gaseshaverisen 3.1 economic output. head ofpopulationandgreenhouse gasesperunitof sources ofgreenhouse gases,greenhouse gasesper greenhouse gases.Pressure indicatorstherefore include The keypressure inclimatechangeistheemissionof 3 2 -e =carbon dioxide-e equivalent;Mt =milliontonne What are thepressures? Sources ofglobalandAustralian greenhouse gasemissions Baumert etal.(2005) Global comparisonofoverall andper-person emissionsofgreenhouse gases,2005 emissions percapitaare the7thhighestinworld, 1.5% tototalemissions(Figure 5; Table 3). Australia’s world basedontotalemissionsin2005andcontributing 25 greenhouse gasemittingnations,ranked 15thinthe Significantly, Australia isoneofthetop(highest) 2009), andagriculture contributesasimilarproportion. account for15%ofglobalemissions(van derWerf etal. 2000 (Baumertetal.2005).Deforestation isestimatedto accounted forapproximately 60%ofglobalemissionsin generation andtransportation. Energy-related emissions and gas) tocreate energy forelectricityproduction, heat emissions (Garnaut 2008). generating electricityisakeycauseofourhighper-capita with otherOECDnations,Australia’s reliance oncoalfor and Development(OECD) (Garnaut 2008).Compared highest intheOrganisation forEconomicCo-operation higher thananyofthetop25 emittingnationsand 87 Climate change

7 9 30 49 55 41 45 51 79 16 48 88 58 82 42 21 40 86 28 10 39 76 61 O), O), 148 120 Rank 2 emissions) (per-capita (per-capita may cause,

-e) 2 9 ), nitrous oxide (N oxide ), nitrous 4 23 greenhouse gas greenhouse 9.7 8.7 5.7 9.8 5.3 8.5 5.6 1.7 5.4 5.9 2.5 8.1 11.8 27.5 10.5 10.1 15.6 23.3 10.2 13.5 10.6 11.9 10.7 emissions emissions Per capita Per (t of CO , methane (CH 2 100 76.7 79.1 83.0 50.8 a given type and amount of Cumulative % Cumulative 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 5.1 4.9 3.6 2.7 2.6 2.0 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.5 17.0 19.2 18.3 13.4 total global warming % of world % of world ). 6 as the reference. Gases include CO as the reference. 2

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 ) 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 10 11 12 13 Rank (total 26–186 emissions) -e) cait.wri.org/cait.php?page=yearly&mode=view&sort=val-desc&pHints=shut&url=form&year=2005§or=natl 2 422.6 390.6 375.3 372.2 351.1 328.4 977.5 741.8 642.2 631.0 576.5 568.1 567.8 565.6 560.6 550.3 493.6 436.7 6 435.1 7 242.1 6 900.9 5 046.7 1 939.6 1 865.0 1 349.2 1 010.5 31 361.4 37 796.5 (Mt of CO of (Mt Total emissions emissions Total a a

Top 25 greenhouse gas emitting nations (excluding land use change), 2005 land use (excluding emitting nations gas 25 greenhouse Top -e is ‘carbon dioxide equivalent’, which is a measure of how much which is a measure equivalent’, dioxide -e is ‘carbon a 2 a a Excludes bunker fuels (fuels in tanks of marine and air vessels in international transport) and land-use change emissions. ‘Land-use change’ refers to and land-use change emissions. ‘Land-use change’ refers bunker fuels (fuels in tanks of marine and air vessels in international transport) Excludes Institute Resources the World modelling, and global emissions data from Resources and Natural Department of Environment, Water South Australian perfluorocarbons, hydrofluorocarbons, and sulfur hexafluoride (SF and sulfur hexafluoride hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons, Climate Analysis Indicators Tool (http:// Climate Analysis Indicators Tool &co2=1&ch4=1&n2o=1&pfc=1&hfc=1&sf6=1&update=Update the emissions and removals of greenhouse gases from human land use, land-use change and forestry activities. human land use, land-use change and forestry gases from of greenhouse the emissions and removals of CO using the functionally equivalent amount or concentration a a European Union includes 27 countries; those in the top 25 are also listed separately. The inclusion of the European Union places Australia 16th in the table. Union places Australia The inclusion of the European also listed separately. Union includes 27 countries; those in the top 25 are European Countries ranked 26th Countries ranked to 186th world emissions Total Thailand Argentina 25 Top Turkey Saudi Arabia Poland Ukraine Spain South Africa Italy Australia France Iran (South) Korea United Kingdom Mexico Indonesia Brazil Germany Canada Russian Federation Russian India Japan United States United States of America Union (27) European China Country CO Sources: a Note: Table 3 88 Climate change Sources: CO2-e =carbondioxide equivalent;LULUCF =landuse,land-usechangeandforestry; Mt =milliontonne;nanotavailable Table 4 combustion offuelsonsite(such asgasanddieselto emissions from thegeneration ofelectricity, thedirect 2010 (Figure 6). Emissionsfrom theenergy sectorinclude emissions, contributing73%ofthetotalinventoryin The energy sectoristhedominantsource ofstate increased by4%between1990and2010(Table 4). Excluding LULUCF, totalSouthAustralian emissions overall netemissionsfellby6%,from 32.2 Mt to30.4 Mt. reduced deforestation andincreased forestry plantings), source in1990buta1.4 Mt sinkin2010, asaresult of over thisperiodisincluded(thesectorwasa1.5 Mt as thereference. Ifthereduction inLULUCF emissions functionally equivalentamountorconcentration ofCO type andamountof (CO reforestation anddeforestation activities). CO change andforestry [LULUCF] sector—afforestation, (including netemissionsfrom thelanduse,land-use in 2010, at30.4 million tonnes(Mt) ofCO South Australia contributed 5% ofAustralian emissions 3.2

LULUCF Total including LULUCF Total excluding LULUCF Waste Agriculture processes Industrial imports Net electricity Energy 2 -e) isameasure-e) ofhowmuch Sources ofSouthAustralian greenhouse gasemissions Resources modelling Australian GovernmentDepartmentofClimate ChangeandEnergy Efficiency, andSouth Australian DepartmentofEnvironment, WaterandNatural South Australian greenhouse gasemissions greenhouse gas 1990 20.7 32.2 30.7 5.5 2.7 0.6 1.5 1.2 global warming 2000 33.5 35.6 –2.1 21.7 maycause,usingthe 5.6 3.1 4.5 0.7 2 equivalents Emissions (Mt ofCO 2 equivalent 2007 34.1 23.6 0.7 5.1 3.3 1.4 agiven na 2

2008 32.1 33.4 –1.3 24.1 emissions in2010. Transport emissionsgrew by0.5 Mt Transport wasthesource of19%thestate’s total 24% (AEMO 2012). electricity generation, withgascontributing50%andcoal fossilfuelsprovided2011a). In2011–12, justunder75%of of coalannuallyfrom theLeigh Creek coalmine(AEMO at Port Theseconsumeapproximately Augusta. 3.8 Mt Power Station andPlayford BPower Station, bothlocated South Australia hastwocoal-fired generators: Northern sectors hascontinuedtogrow. consumption inthecommercial, industrialandresidential in thepastfewyears.However, theunderlyingelectricity generation withemissionsdecliningslightly isevident, The impactoftherecent increase inrenewable energy between 1990and2010, withemissionspeakingin2000. generation contributedtoa2.6 Mtincrease inemissions 10% between1990and2010(Table 3.5).Electricity sector emissions(excluding theland-usesector)rose transport andinterconnector emissions.Total energy produce stationaryenergy), thecombustionoffuelfor steady overthisperiod(DCCEE 2012b). emissions, whilepassengerroad emissionsremained (8%) from 1990to2010, causedbyincreasing road freight 0.8 4.9 3.2 0.4 2 -e) 2009 30.0 31.4 –1.4 22.3 0.8 4.8 2.8 0.7 2010 30.4 31.8 –1.4 22.1 0.8 4.7 3.1 1.1 Change from 1990to –1.8 –2.9 –0.4 –0.8 Mt 1.1 0.4 0.5 1.4 2010 –193 –33 –15 % –6 15 83 4 7 89 Climate change a a 8 37 15 10 % change 9.7 5.4 5.9 2.2 2010 23.2 e) 2- 9.7 5.5 5.8 2.0 23.0 2009 9.8 5.5 5.9 3.3 emissions per capita South Australian greenhouse gas greenhouse South Australian 24.5 2008 Emissions (Mt of CO (Mt Emissions highlights the growth in residential emissions beyond in residential highlights the growth in of the increase what would be expected as a result share emissions took up a larger population. Residential The South in 2010 than in 1990. emissions of the state’s by 15% over this period, while population grew Australian 33% increased electricity residential emissions from (Table 6). 3.3 emissions trended Australian basis, South On a per-capita back to 1990 but then declined to peak in 2000, upwards They have fallen below 1990 levels levels by 2007–08. years, primarily under the influence of in the past three in the energy of renewable in the generation increases with the Australian state (Table 7). This can be contrasted after following a in the past few years, where, trend at 1990 emissions per capita were trend, similar upward emissions were per-capita South Australian levels in 2010. lower than the national figures substantially (8–22%) the period 1990–2010. throughout Analysis of emissions on an economic sector basis Analysis of emissions on an economic sector 5.2 5.8 3.2 2007 10.7 25.0 4.8 5.8 4.2 26.2 11.4 2000 7.1 4.8 5.4 4.0 1990 21.3 emissions by sector (excluding emissions by sector (excluding land use, land-use change and forestry), 2010 South Australia’s greenhouse gas greenhouse South Australia’s South Australian energy sector emissions sector energy South Australian a Australian Government Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency, and South Australian Department of Environment, Water and Natural Water and Natural Department of Environment, Australian and South Efficiency, Government Department of Climate Change and Energy Australian Australian Government Department of Climate Change and Energy Government Department of Climate Change and Energy Australian Efficiency, and South Australian Department of Environment, Water Department of Environment, Australian and South Efficiency, modelling Resources and Natural Resources modelling Resources -e = carbon dioxide equivalent; Mt = million tonne Mt -e equivalent; carbon dioxide = 2 Because of a change in the calculation methodology for fugitive emissions (unintended emissions related to the production, storage, transmission and transmission storage, to the production, emissions related calculation methodology for fugitive emissions (unintended Because of a change in the distribution of fossil fuels) by the Australian Government Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency, the 1990 reported figure may be an reported figure the 1990 Efficiency, Government Department of Climate Change and Energy by the Australian distribution of fossil fuels) overestimate. Fugitive Total Other stationary energy Transport Electricity (including Electricity (including interconnector) Sources: CO a Figure 6 Sources: Table 5 90 Climate change Sources: Australian Government DepartmentofClimateChangeandEnergy Efficiency, Australian Bureau of Statistics (cataloguenumber3101.0)andSouth CO Table 8 Table 7 Sources: CO Table 6 the loweremissionsserviceindustriesandimproved economy hasbeenattributedtoastrong growth in in thegreenhouse gasintensityoftheAustralian product—since 1990(Table 3.8).Thesimilarreduction tonnes ofCO intensity oftheSouthAustralian economy—that is,the There hasbeena42%reduction inthegreenhouse gas 3.4 Sources: CO (tonnes ofCO Australian emissionspercapitaincludingLULUCF (tonnes ofCO SA emissionspercapitaincludingLULUCF SA population LULUCF (tonnesofCO Australian emissionsper$millionGDPincluding (tonnes ofCO SA emissionsper$millionGSPincludingLULUCF SA GSP($million) Population (Mt ofCO emissions electricity Residential 2 2 2 -e =carbondioxide-e equivalent;LULUCF =landuse,land-usechangeandforestry -e =carbondioxide-e equivalent;Mt =milliontonne -e =carbondioxide-e equivalent;GDP= gross domesticproduct; GSP=gross stateproduct; LULUCF = land use,land-usechangeandforestry South Australian greenhouse gas emissions pergross stateproduct Australian DepartmentofEnvironment,Water andNatural Resources modelling Environment, Water andNatural Resources modelling Australian Departmentof Environment,Water andNatural Resources modelling Australian GovernmentDepartmentofClimateChangeandEnergy Efficiency, Australian Bureau of Statistics.andSouth Australian Departmentof Australian GovernmentDepartmentofClimate ChangeandEnergy Efficiency, Australian Bureau of Statistics (cataloguenumber5220.0) andSouth 2 -e)

2 -e produced-e permilliondollars of gross state 2 2 2 South Australian emissionspermilliondollars ofgross stateproduct and Australian South Australian andAustralian emissionspercapita Residential electricityemissionsandpopulation emissions permilliondollarsofgross domesticproduct -e/person) -e/person) -e) 1 438 882 2 -e) 2353 1990 1 508 028 3606 2000 1 593 743 3392 2007 52 043 1990 1990 1 438 882 797 619 32.0 22.4 economies (Commonwealth ofAustralia 2008). growth inmanufacturingproductivity ofdeveloping manufacturing hasbeenindecline,parallel withthe energy efficiency(ABS2010).Inaddition, Australian 1 613 346 3154 2008 81 942 2008 467 391 2008 1 613 346 1 634 468 26.8 19.9 83 231 3080 2009 2009 454 361 2009 1 634 468 1 649 947 84 269 2010 3137 2010 25.9 18.4 434 360 % change % change 2010 1 649 947 –46% –42% 33% 15% 25.0 18.4 91 Climate change Australia Emissions reduction in South Emissions reduction greenhouse gas emissions in the state and to facilitate greenhouse the Australian community access to funding from increasingly is, however, Government. South Australia mitigation to from moving the focus pragmatically are Australia and Australia adaptation, as efforts in South modest in a global context. 4.2 key existing emissions reduction South Australia’s Given the rapidly in Table 9. summarised initiatives are climate change policy in Australia, of evolving nature reviewing Government is currently the South Australian a fit to ensure its climate change policies and strategies is also working with the national agenda. South Australia to reducing barriers policy and regulatory to remove (Australian (Australian Securing a clean energy future Securing a clean energy Emissions reduction in Australia Emissions reduction What are we doing about it? we doing about What are be supported by the three other elements of the plan: be supported by the three efficiency and land- energy energy, investing in renewable 2011). (DCCEE based carbon sequestration carbon markets from the start of the flexible price carbon markets from businesses to purchase period, allowing liable Australian overseas. The carbon price will emissions reductions price, commencing with a fixed price from July 2012 and price from price, commencing with a fixed scheme in July 2015. The moving to an emissions trading carbon price mechanism will be linked to international Government 2012) in July 2011. The key element of the Government 2012) in July 2011. The key in the legislative package, passed Future Clean Energy of a carbon Senate in November 2011, is the introduction Since electricity generation is Australia’s largest source of source largest is Australia’s Since electricity generation Government introduced carbon pollution, the Australian its plan for cuts. Emissions are expected to be around 22% higher expected to be around cuts. Emissions are intervention than 2000 levels by 2020 without further 2011). (DCCEE climate change policies, such as the Renewable Energy Energy climate change policies, such as the Renewable Initiative 2012c) and the Carbon Farming (DCCEE Target inadequate to achieve these emissions 2012d), are (DCCEE extent of international action) below 2000 levels by 2020. below 2000 levels by 2020. extent of international action) of 80% target It has also committed to a longer term Existing Australian on 2000 levels by 2050. reductions emissions reduction targets to the international climate to the international targets emissions reduction has now committed to domestic negotiations. Australia on the or 25% (depending of 5–15% emissions reductions 4.1 Government has submitted its official The Australian are also preparing for inevitable climate change by also preparing are with change. to cope and programs developing guidelines The Australian and South Australian Governments are are Governments and South Australian The Australian the level to reduce and programs developing policies emissions. Governments reducing of climate change by 4 92 Climate change Table 9 Initiative Act 2008 Solar Systems) Amendment Electricity (Feed-in Scheme— South Australia A renewable energy planfor 2007–2020 Greenhouse Strategy — SouthAustralia’s Tackling climatechange Reduction Act 2007 Greenhouse Emissions Climate Changeand South Australia’s keycurrent emissionsreduction initiatives (2011) Purpose back intothegrid the provision ofatariffforelectricityfed systemsthrough top solarphotovoltaic(PV) To encourage theuptakeofresidential roof- South Australia’s Strategic Plan renewable energy by2020containedin in achievingthestate’s target of33% Outlines therole ofthestate government buildings andnatural resources) industry, energy, transport andplanning, and actionsgrouped bysector (community, coordinated way. Listsobjectives,strategies targets andcommitments inaplannedand Australia’s greenhouse gasemissions Provides aframework formeetingSouth adaptation energy, andsupportmeasures tofacilitate and thecommercialisation ofrenewable emissions, encourage energy efficiency and programs toreduce greenhouse gas commitment tothedevelopmentofpolicies 2014. TheActrequires astategovernment of electricitygenerated andconsumedby renewable electricitytargets ofatleast20% state of60%below1990levelsby2050,and long-term emissionsreduction target for the use ofrenewable energy. TheActincludesa greenhouse gasemissionsandincrease the encourage andsupportactiontoreduce To establishvoluntarymechanismsto Impact andprogress of theactionscurrently inthestrategy are Given thechangeinnationalpolicy, many industrial processes are alsogrowth areas industrial sectors.Road freight transport and of theresidential, commercial buildingand growth trends remain intheenergy emissions the growth inenergy-sector emissions.Strong years aheadofschedule,andthishasslowed electricity targets havebeenachievedthree emissions increased by4%.Therenewable sector (see Section 3.2).Excluding LULUCF, mainly duetothecontributionofLULUCF greenhouse gasemissionsdecreased by6%, Between 1990and2010,SouthAustralia’s net and Energy, pers.comm.,8 March 2012) Manufacturing, Innovation,Trade, Resources capacity (SouthAustralian Departmentfor the state’s installedelectricity generation February 2012,PVsystemsmadeup3%of approval toconnectsolar panels.Asat households havenowinstalledorreceived More than100 000South Australian Plan released late2011 undergoing review 93 Climate change -e of potential future -e of potential future 2 -e of lifetime energy-related greenhouse greenhouse -e of lifetime energy-related 2 These initiatives are of a transformative nature nature of a transformative These initiatives are and have the potential to substantially lower emissions in the longer term Targets for energy efficiency activities to efficiency for energy Targets have been gas emissions greenhouse reduce for the met in aggregate set. were All targets (2009–11), with first stage of the scheme 657 011 tonnes of CO gas reduction greenhouse energy-related activities (ESCOSA over the lifetime of the of the scheme 2012). The second stage of of 1 million tonnes (2012–14) has a target CO gas reduction. However, there is no there However, gas reduction. to undertake the obligation for householders recommended activities Impact and progress Impact and and the Electricity Act 1996 Electricity Act greenhouse gas emissions within the gas emissions within greenhouse sector residential for likely energy help households prepare carbon from resulting price increases pricing cost for households, energy total reduce households particularly low-income improve energy efficiency and reduce efficiency and energy improve • • Establishes obligations on energy retailers retailers obligations on energy Establishes to provide customers) more 5000 or (with energy- audits and recommend energy Australian to South efficiency activities consumption. energy households to reduce Regulations through REES is given effect made under the 1997. Gas Act to: REES are The objectives of the • Purpose continued -e = carbon dioxide equivalent; LULUCF = land use, land-use change and forestry -e equivalent; LULUCF = carbon dioxide 2 Roofs, and Mini Wind Roofs, Trial Turbine and Climate Smart Building Precincts, Cool Innovation Fund, Various programs, programs, Various including the Low Strategy, Emission Vehicle Sustainable Development Residential Energy Energy Residential Scheme (REES) Efficiency Initiative CO Table 9 94 Climate change Table 10 capacity reached 1203 megawattsfrom 15 windfarms ahead ofthe2014target schedule.Windgeneration state’s generation (Table 10; Figure 7), three years In 2010–11,renewable electricityprovided 22%ofthe generated andconsumedinthestateby2014. and consumedtocompriseatleast20%ofelectricity Act 2007 The to increase renewable energy generation inthestate. Australia’s greenhouse gasemissionshasbeenthedrive To date,themosteffectiveinitiativeto reduce South Year % Climate ChangeandGreenhouse EmissionsReduction 2000–01 has atarget forrenewable electricitygenerated 0.7 Renewable electricityasapercentage oftotalSouthAustralian generation 2001–02 0.6 2002–03 0.7 2003–04 1.8 2004–05 4.0 Department ofManufacturing, Innovation,Trade, Resources andEnergy (DMITRE) 2005–06 Australia 2011a). investment clarityandcertainty(Government ofSouth tailor regulatory frameworks appropriately andprovide but tothedeliberate actionsofthestategovernmentto renewableattributable notonlytoworld-class resources, (AEMO 2012).SouthAustralia’s successinthisarea is to havecomefrom roof-top solarphotovoltaicsystems wind reached 26%ofgeneration, isestimated and2.4% pers. comm.,8 March 2012).For electricityfrom 2011–12, Manufacturing, Innovation,Trade, Resources andEnergy, by theendof2011(SouthAustralian Departmentfor 7.7 2006–07 7.4 2007–08 9.7 Solar installation,AdelaideShowground 2008–09 14.8 2009–10 18.8 2010–11 22.0 95 Climate change -e/MWh) 2 -e/MWh in 2010 if -e/MWh 2 -e/MWh, including -e/MWh, 2 (Government of South (Government e per megawatt hour (CO ‑ 2 leading by example to establish an environment that environment to establish an example leading by renewable energy confidence in builds investor to benefit from to position the state acting early to to better respond national policies and imminent 2011a). of South Australia (Government cost impacts Innovation, Trade, Resources and Energy, pers. comm., and Energy, Resources Innovation, Trade, 2012). 10 March Plan Strategic South Australia’s to limit the carbon a target contains 2011b), Australia electricity generation intensity of total South Australian of CO to 0.5 tonnes electricity emissions current South Australia’s by 2020. of CO intensity factor is 0.65 tonnes and imported electricity generation both South Australian of CO (Table 11). This falls to 0.6 tonnes included. are grid generators only South Australian • • in sites exist high-quality wind resource Many more developed. A number of addition to those already have been publicly announced, further wind projects yet under construction or are although none of these Significant 2011b). (AEMO committed to construction have been identified in prospects potential geothermal 2011a), and the state government (AEMO South Australia exploration geothermal research, continues to support of the most Three projects. and proof-of-concept located are projects geothermal advanced Australian in the Cooper Basin, the northern in South Australia: sites are Flinders Ranges and the Otway Basin. These plants to pilot electricity to supply energy projected Geologist,within 2–5 years (Betina Bendall, Principal Department for Manufacturing, South Australian has since Climate Change A renewable energy energy A renewable . This outlines the critical role of . This outlines the critical role percentage of total South Australian of total South Australian percentage generation Renewable electricity as a Renewable South Australian Department of Environment, Water and Natural and Natural Department of Environment, Water South Australian Resources; Australian Energy Market Operator (South Australian (South Australian Market Operator Energy Australian Resources; Planning Supply and Demand Outlook), Electricity Supply Industry statistics Utilities (solar ETSA planning reports), Council (annual Government Department of for 2009–10), former Australian statistics from Heritage and the Arts (solar Environment, Water, the Solar Homes and Communities Program) provision of efficient regulation and a competitive of efficient provision government fee-charging regime by created market failures intervention to address regional circumstances specific dissemination of detailed, timely and commercially dissemination of detailed, timely and commercially that the investment information to ensure relevant market is fully informed of opportunities within the state • • principal roles for the South Australian Government are: Government for the South Australian principal roles • South Australia in providing complementary policy to complementary policy in providing South Australia energy renewable Government’s support the Australian the and policies. Specifically, investment programs achieve the 33% renewable energy target and outlined target energy achieve the 33% renewable document its plan in the strategy plan for South Australia 2020. Government recognised In 2011, the South Australian the need for continued state government intervention to Australia 2011b). The Strategic Plan sets a further target sets a further target Plan Strategic The 2011b). Australia so that energy to support the development of renewable by electricity generation it comprises 33% of the state’s and Greenhouse Emissions Reduction Act 2007 Act Emissions Reduction and Greenhouse under this legislation and is reflected been strengthened of South (Government Plan Strategic in South Australia’s The 20% target established under the The 20% target Figure 7 Sources: 96 Climate change and expertiseinwatermanagement technologies,which a comprehensive andintegrated water planningsystem climate change.For example, SouthAustralia already has Work isalsotakingplaceinparticularsectorsaffectedby natural andhumansystems(DEWNR2012). research projects are informingadaptation responses for impacts andcommunityhealthimpacts.Awiderange of natural resource managementimpacts,primaryindustry begin toaddress sealevelrise,sustainablewatersupplies, This includesthedevelopmentofpoliciesandplansthat localgovernment andregionala stategovernment, level. adaptation activityisunderwayacross SouthAustralia at at regional, sectoral andstatewidelevels.Arange of the developmentofmore detailedadaptivestrategies business andthecommunity. Italsoaims tofacilitate non-governmentorganisations,local government, the impactsofclimatechangebygovernmentagencies, The framework aimstoguideactioninpreparing for of SouthAustralia 2010)waslaunchedinAugust 2012. adaptation framework forSouthAustralia Prospering inachangingclimate—a climatechange of climatechangethrough planninganddevelopment. change, SouthAustralia alsoaimstomitigatetheimpacts Along withreducing emissionstolimitthelevelofclimate 4.3 (Government ofSouthAustralia 2011c). conditioners andresidential waterheaterrequirements requirements fornewhomes,managingenergy useofair- 6-star energyEfficiency Scheme (Table 6), efficiency number ofstateprograms, suchastheResidential Energy 15% by2020(compared with2003–04).Thisisthrough a target toimprove theenergy efficiencyofdwellingsby Australia 2011b), containsaresidential energy efficiency South Australia’s Strategic Plan Source: CO Table 11 MWh) (tonnes CO grid generators South Australian CO imports (tonnes grid including South Australian 2 -e =carbondioxide-e equivalent;MWh =megawatt–hours 2 -e/MWh) Adapting toclimatechange emissions factors Australian GovernmentDepartmentofClimateChangeandEnergy (July2012), Efficiency, Table 40:Scope 2 National Greenhouse Accounts Factors 2 -e/ South Australian electricityemissionsfactors 0.78 0.81 1990 (Government ofSouth 0.87 1995 2000 0.92 (Government 0.78 0.89 2005 0.75 0.87 2006 to increasing communityawareness, preparedness and an Extreme HeatPlan toensure acoordinated approach Australian Governmentdepartmentshavedeveloped South Australian State Emergency ServiceandkeySouth will formthebasisforadaptationinwatersector. The response toextreme heatevents(SASES2010). 0.73 0.83 2007 0.66 0.77 2008 0.65 0.72 2009 0.60 0.67 2010 Latest estimate 0.56 0.65 97 Climate change Reducing emissions Reducing If South Australia is to play its part in the timely reduction is to play its part in the timely reduction If South Australia coordinated of global emissions, only a government-wide, to mitigation will be successful in and concerted approach Some moving the state to a low-carbon economy. rapidly abatement initiatives focus on improved of the current of population and efficiencies against a backdrop of are endeavours, while other projects economic growth attitudes and understanding of climate change, to attitudes and understanding of climate demand the incentive for cuts in personal energy provide so and acceptance of low-emissions technologies, transition to rapidly empowered that governments are 2011). Recent economy (CSIRO to a low-carbon Australia have been indicates that, since the 1990s, there research in public levels of uncertainty and diversity increases change and the of opinion about the causes of climate of a perception is also There extent of the problem. and a lack of confidence among scientists disagreement and effects the nature in the ability of science to predict Washington of climate change (Ashworth et al. 2011, have also been affected by the and Cook 2011). Attitudes with the bitterly partisan public policy debates associated Institute 2012). carbon tax (Climate Government is now leading the Although the Australian domestic mitigation agenda, the important it recognises of the states and territories in the national initiative, role and energy of renewable particularly in the promotion transport land-use planning and public efficiency, energy 2011 Committee 2011). Many of the Environment (State will not be impacted sufficiently or at emissions sources state governments all by a carbon price, and this is where have a clear leadership role. 5.1 action require reductions will Effective global emissions international agreements, including on many fronts, investment government regulation, economic reform, and societal change. It will in technological innovation the united efforts of government, the industry and require 2011). 2011, CSIRO (Ackerman and Stanton public at large gas greenhouse Achieving deep cuts in Australia’s to public a major alteration emissions will require What can we expect? What can we more than 7 metres over subsequent centuries, even than 7 metres more with no further warming ecosystems substantial loss of marine and terrestrial of many or most the resilience with and biodiversity, (Whettonecosystems being exceeded et al. 2011). increases in evaporation and drought in evaporation increases the events, increasing rainfall in extreme an increase risk of flooding weather fire in extreme an increase to increasing by 2100, sea level rise of up to 1.1 metres temperature increases of 3–5 °C in coastal areas and of 3–5 °C in coastal areas increases temperature inland 4–6 °C high of extremely in the occurrence increases temperatures rainfall in southern likely significant declines in annual Australia reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and the impact of greenhouse reduce inevitable change will depend on the preparations made now. The magnitude of future climate impacts will depend on The magnitude of future what global effort is made this decade to substantially • • • • • • • temperature rise would include: temperature • be irreversible in a timeframe that is relevant to humans that is relevant in a timeframe be irreversible New et al. 2011). 2011, (Garnaut the effects of a 4 °C global average In Australia, catastrophic. There is a risk that the climate system may There catastrophic. a ‘tipping point’reach at which a small additional change can These responses abrupt response. may trigger a large, of modern civilisation, and that have probably prevailed prevailed and that have probably of modern civilisation, Potential times in our history. for our species at all disruptive to highly from range impacts of climate change A global average temperature increase from pre- from increase temperature A global average stable is well outside the relatively industrial levels of 4 °C the development that have allowed regimes temperature 5 98 Climate change society inthemore vulnerable regions oftheworld(New requiring acompletetransformation inmanyaspectsof changes maymovefrom incremental totransformative, is inmitigatingclimatechange (Garnaut 2011).Climate requirement willdependonhowsuccessfulthe world possible futures. Theextent andcostoftheadaptation Adaptation policyneedstoincorporate awiderange of possibly 4 °Cby2070(CSIRO 2011). that weare headingforglobalwarmingofatleast2 °C— response (CSIRO 2011).Thelatestscientificagreement is emissions resulting from theworld’s slowmitigation existing greenhouse gasesintheatmosphere and future Future climatechangeimpactsare unavoidablegiven 5.2 plant andconstructinganonsitecogeneration plant. 2050, sourcing renewable energy for thedesalination BHP Billitonhascommittedtodeepcutsinemissionsby current emissions.Ingainingapproval fortheproject, around 2020. Thisequatestoaround 15%ofthestate’s from electricityanddieseluseatfullproduction by estimated additional4.7 Mt ofCO copper, uranium oxide, goldandsilver, withanassociated The proposed open-pitminewillincrease production of expansion ofminingactivity, particularlyatOlympicDam. A future pressure onthestate’s emissionsisthe Australia 2011a). energy investmentintensifies (Government ofSouth ascompetitionfor to thenationaleffort, renewable deliberate stategovernmentpolicysupportinaddition the 33%renewable energy target willrequire continued energy resources (Figure 8). However, achievementof solar electricitylevelsinthenorthofstateandwave significant potentialforgeothermalenergy, world-class (Baker andMcKenzie etal.2010).SouthAustralia alsohas entire average electricityneedsintimesofhighwind thisregioninvestment, iscapableofmeetingthestate’s identified inthe Eyre Withnewtransmission Peninsula. An extensiveopportunityforwindgeneration hasbeen market (Government ofSouthAustralia 2011a). and acompetitiveadvantageinglobalcarbon-sensitive economy alsoprovides hedgingagainstcarbonprices and timelygreenhouseAlow-carbon gasabatement. renewable energyanddeliveringsignificant investment, Australia iswellplacedtobuild onitssuccessinattracting With anatural endowmentofrenewable resources, South to berealised wellintothefuture. a demonstrative nature withpotentialabatementbenefits Adapting tounavoidableclimate change 2 -e peryearemitted -e Section 4.3) areSection 4.3) essentialtoensure thatweminimisethe and preparation processes already started(see (Government ofSouthAustralia 2010).Theadaptation climate changeadaptationframework forSouthAustralia since developed to undertakeadaptationplanningin2009andhas The SouthAustralian Government outlinedtheneed opportunities innewmarkets(DCCEE IPCC 2012a, 2012). the statetopositionitselftakeadvantageofpotential export markets.Adaptationplanningwillalsoenable other countrieswillaffectSouth Australia’s importand agriculture andhumanhealth.Climateimpactson environment, citiesandinfrastructure, thecoastalzone, key vulnerable areas are watersupply, thenatural resilience topotentialadverseimpacts.SouthAustralia’s to reduce exposure andvulnerability, andincrease climate change,andadaptationplanningisimportant South Australia ishighlyvulnerable toprojected warming present great challengesforadaptation. et al.2011).Theimpactsonsocietyassociatedwitha4 °C government policyandplanningprocesses. considerations willneedtobeincorporated intoall as ourprimaryindustriesandwatersupply. Adaptation impacts ofclimatechangeonessentialservices,such Prospering inachangingclimate:

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