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Presidential Failures in South America Loyola University Chicago Loyola eCommons Dissertations Theses and Dissertations 2015 Surviving the Presidency: Presidential Failures in South America Christopher A. Martinez Loyola University Chicago Follow this and additional works at: https://ecommons.luc.edu/luc_diss Part of the Latin American Studies Commons Recommended Citation Martinez, Christopher A., "Surviving the Presidency: Presidential Failures in South America" (2015). Dissertations. 1480. https://ecommons.luc.edu/luc_diss/1480 This Dissertation is brought to you for free and open access by the Theses and Dissertations at Loyola eCommons. It has been accepted for inclusion in Dissertations by an authorized administrator of Loyola eCommons. For more information, please contact [email protected]. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 3.0 License. Copyright © 2015 Christopher A. Martinez LOYOLA UNIVERSITY CHICAGO SURVIVING THE PRESIDENCY: PRESIDENTIAL FAILURES IN SOUTH AMERICA A DISSERTATION SUBMITTED TO THE FACULTY OF THE GRADUATE SCHOOL IN CANDIDACY FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY PROGRAM IN POLITICAL SCIENCE BY CHRISTOPHER A. MARTINEZ CHICAGO, IL MAY 2015 Copyright by Christopher A. Martinez, 2015 All rights reserved. TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF TABLES .............................................................................................................. v LIST OF FIGURES ........................................................................................................... vi ABSTRACT ...................................................................................................................... vii CHAPTER ONE: AN INTRODUCTION TO SOUTH AMERICAN PRESIDENTIAL FAILURES ..................................................................................................................... 1 Describing the ProbleM: What is the Puzzle? ................................................................. 1 Research Question .......................................................................................................... 5 Existing Explanations ..................................................................................................... 6 Significance of this Dissertation ..................................................................................... 7 Methods........................................................................................................................... 7 Overview of the Study .................................................................................................... 8 CHAPTER TWO: THE STATE OF THE LITERATURE ON PRESIDENTIAL FAILURES: LITERATURE REVIEW AND THEORETICAL MODEL .................. 11 Introduction ................................................................................................................... 11 The Existing Literature ................................................................................................. 11 Rethinking the Role of DeMocracy............................................................................... 20 Theoretical Model ......................................................................................................... 24 CHAPTER THREE: METHODOLOGY, OPERATIONALIZATION AND CASE SELECTION ................................................................................................................ 28 Introduction ................................................................................................................... 28 Mixed-Method Research ............................................................................................... 28 SaMple........................................................................................................................... 29 Survival Analysis .......................................................................................................... 30 Qualitative Analysis: The Case-Study Approach and Case Selection .......................... 38 Final ReMarks ............................................................................................................... 46 CHAPTER FOUR: SURVIVAL ANALYSIS ................................................................. 47 Introduction ................................................................................................................... 47 Quantitative Data Analysis ........................................................................................... 48 Assessing the Risks of Presidential Failures in South AMerica ................................... 60 Final ReMarks ............................................................................................................... 63 CHAPTER FIVE: THE FORCED RESIGNATION OF FERNANDO DE LA RUA IN ARGENTINA (DECEMBER 10, 1999 – DECEMBER 21, 2001) ............................. 65 Introduction ................................................................................................................... 65 Background ................................................................................................................... 67 Data Analysis ................................................................................................................ 72 Final ReMarks ............................................................................................................. 108 iii CHAPTER SIX: THE OUSTER OF LUCIO GUTIERREZ IN ECUADOR (JANUARY 15, 2003 – APRIL 20, 2005) ...................................................................................... 112 Introduction ................................................................................................................. 112 Background ................................................................................................................. 114 Data Analysis .............................................................................................................. 123 Final ReMarks ............................................................................................................. 154 CHAPTER SEVEN: CONCLUSION ............................................................................ 158 Introduction ................................................................................................................. 158 Institutions Matter: Partisan Support and DeMocratic Tradition ................................ 159 Contributions to the Study of Presidential Failures .................................................... 167 LiMitations of the Dissertation and Further Research ................................................ 169 APPENDIX A: SUMMARY STATISTICS .................................................................. 173 APPENDIX B: CORRELATION MATRIX ..................................................................175 APPENDIX C: SEPARATE ANALYSES FOR DEMOCRATIC TRADITION, PARTISAN SUPPORT, AND GDP PER CAPITA ..................................................177 APPENDIX D: NEWS ARTICLES AND NEWS TOPICS ..........................................181 BIBLIOGRAPHY ...........................................................................................................184 VITA ............................................................................................................................... 205 iv LIST OF TABLES Table 1. Exit Mechanisms ................................................................................................... 3 Table 2. Sample of Censored and Failed Presidencies (by country) ................................ 30 Table 3. Expected Presidential Fates and Exit Mechanisms ............................................. 42 Table 4. The Two Presidencies and Timeframe of Analysis ............................................ 45 Table 5. Bivariate Cox’s Proportional-Hazard Regressions ............................................. 49 Table 6. Multivariate Cox’s Proportional-Hazard Regressions ........................................ 52 Table 7. Argentina’s Major Political Parties as of December 1999 ................................. 69 Table 8. Ecuador’s Largest Political Parties as of January 2003 .................................... 116 v LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: DeMocratic Tradition and Polity2 Score of DeMocracy, 1900-2012 ................ 22 Figure 2: Institutional Carriers and Presidential Survival ................................................. 26 Figure 3: AdMinistration-Year Observations .................................................................... 41 Figure 4: Cox’s Proportional-Hazards Regression: Partisan Support .............................. 58 Figure 5: Cox’s Proportional-Hazards Regression: Democratic Tradition....................... 59 Figure 6: South AMerica’s (average) and Argentina’s DeMocratic Traditions ................ 68 Figure 7: News Topics on the De la Rúa AdMinistration ................................................. 73 Figure 8: News Topics during the De la Rúa AdMinistration (by Month)........................ 74 Figure 9: Argentina’s Country Risk during Fernando De la Rúa’s Presidency ................ 86 Figure 10: South AMerica’s and Ecuador’s DeMocratic Tradition ................................ 115 Figure 11: Ecuador’s Country Risk (October 2003 – May 2005) .................................. 118 Figure 12: News Topics on the Gutiérrez AdMinistration .............................................. 124 Figure 13: News Topics during the Gutiérrez AdMinistration (by Month) .................... 125 vi ABSTRACT Since 1979, one out of six South American
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