The original documents are located in Box 1, folder: “Memoranda to the President, December 1974” of the Frank Zarb Papers at the Gerald R. Ford Presidential Library.

Copyright Notice The copyright law of the United States (Title 17, United States Code) governs the making of photocopies or other reproductions of copyrighted material. Frank Zarb donated to the United States of America his copyrights in all of his unpublished writings in National Archives collections. Works prepared by U.S. Government employees as part of their official duties are in the public domain. The copyrights to materials written by other individuals or organizations are presumed to remain with them. If you think any of the information displayed in the PDF is subject to a valid copyright claim, please contact the Gerald R. Ford Presidential Library. Digitized from Box 1 of the Frank Zarb Papers at the Gerald R. Ford Presidential Library

EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF ·THE PRESIDENT OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET

WASHINGTON, D.C. 20503

December 4, 1974

MEMORANDUM FOR THE PRESIDENT FROM: FRANK ZARB 'if' THRU: ROGERS C. B. MORTON

SUBJECT: LATEST PETROLEUM STATISTICS

The attached charts and summary for the week ending November 15, indicates:

- Crude oil and product imports as well as total petroleum consumption continued their seasonal upward trend.

- Domestic production of crude oil amounted to 8.6 million barrels per day, approximately 4 percent below year ago levels.

- Total consumption was 17.9 million barre~s per day as compared to 18.0 million barrels per day a year ago. Total consumption did exceed the 170,000 barrel per day savings target established for the first quarter of 1975, under your 1 million barrel per day goal by the end of 1975.

- Substantial savings in heating oil and residual oil were more than offset by much higher gasoline consumption and increases in other products.

- Imports dropped slightly below forecast, but did not reach the first quarter savings goal.

We can review these in more detail during our upcoming energy briefing.

~-----..---.-.-.----.------.:---~~:-:-::--~------_. KEY PETROLEUM STATISTICS SUMMARY*

TOTAL OIL DEMAND

Expected consumption without conservation 17,570,000 Required to meet President's goal** 17,400,000 Actual consumption 17,940,000 Consumption under (over) President's goal (540,000)

OIL IMPORTS

Expected imports without conservation 6,920,000 Required to meet President's goal 6,750,000 Actual imports 6,890,000 Imports under (over) President's goal (140,000)

CONSUMPTION OF KEY PRODUCTS

Heating Residual Gasoline Oil Oil Expected consumption without conservation 6,320,000 3,340,000 2,810,000 Required to meet President's goal 6,270,000 3,270,000 2,760,000 Actual consumption 6,670,000 3,100,000 2,540,000 Consumption under (over) President's goal (400,000) 170,000 220,000

* All figures in barrels per day (MMB/O) for the latest four week period. ** For the 1 t-ll-1B/D saving goal; 170 thousand barrels per day is the goal for the first three months of 1975. Crude Oil-Domestic Production*

Average for the month throuqh September 1974 *Includes lease condensate 10.5

10.0

> C'O "0... 9.5 -..... Q.) ,.' ------... .., Co ...... -- '", .!!? ;; -;;.:>""-. Q.) •• •• •• ...... ~ ...... , ...... C'O - -...... c 9.0 "-­ /'­ ..­ ."V' ...... , 0 ...... ,.... '"c - 0 ~" ~ ~ 8.5 ~

8.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

--- 1972 •••••••• 1973 1974 Total Imports . Average for the month through Septenber, 1974

7.0 ~...... ~ .... _.,# It,_ >­ .­...... CD ." - ...·f • .".· "0 ••." \ ~f • ..... • .....- --... •• Q) 6.0 - ...... a...... •• ..­.~ .. --_ ::...• '" y.:; -­ .....QJ I ..... # CD .0 - / J ..... - ., ',-",­ 0 5.0 - . .". . ~ .., .; . ~ ~ - '"c ­ . .2 ~ ...... 1'. _... ~ .... a r- ...... - . .--" ~ 4.0 - Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov _ - - 1972 1973 1974 ."

Crude Oil-'Impo~

Average for the month through September 1974

4.5

4.0 ~ ~ ~ " k:C .,.; 3.5 l­ / ...... -­.. •• •• •• ­ ••0. ~ ~ .. ·aa >... ""...... ~ 3.0 .•...... t:::. ... •• a• "aJ f c...... ·a,t '" ..­ L'a ~ 2.5 I .. ~ ... ".. <0 ,,; .J ~ .0 \'­ ,/4 - .. _... -.; -~ 2.0 \.- .. .. -...... - c: .Q -- -­ ~ 1.5 Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec --- 1972 •••••••• 1973 - 1974

Imports of Refined Products

Average for the month through September, 1974

4.0

3.5 •• " -.. 10" -.. ee • tt····. • •• e • 1- ••••• .~ • e~ 3.0 I' ;>­ ...... • ...... •• <0 . .. ~ ..1 "0 ~-. • t- •••••.' ...... ,.. "",.; / ­ ~. ,­ ~ ...... :':j ~ 2.5 '" _/ a;... "­ <0 K:: ~ .0 -~ J o 2.0 '"- ~-'"- '­ '"c: .Q ~ 1.5 Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

--- 1972 ~ •••••••• 1973 - 1974 Domestic Demand for Products

Average for the month through September 1974

20

19 ~ ...... •• •.. I~••• 18 .. •• / -. ... 1/' •• > ~, •• .... •• . .. III ~.~ •• •• .. / "'C 17 ,., , .... '" ••~J QJ •• ...... 0. ' ...... ,. " • ••...... -.-­ ~'" ~~ ... •• ~ / .... 16 ,.....,- III -...... ,~ .0.... ~A, / 0 15 ~ ~ '"c: '-- "" ~ ..... / .2 ~ 14 Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec _ - - 1972 •••••••• 1973 1974 Motor Gasoline-Domestic Demand

Average fo{ the month through September 1974

7.5 .'." ...... ••. 7.0 ..­ ...... r-..~'" :... .­ ,J [~ ~\ 6.5 ... ..­ -. I' ...... ~~ "'- 114 oJ ~- ... '. ••..­ I ..... 7­ ~ .' <..... '" -­ ..~. ... .L/ Q> ...... ­ Co 6.0 ~ '" ...... ", ~ , I .0'" .... .1 o 5.5 '"c '" .~ ~ 5.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec ___ 1972 •••••••• 1973 1974

Residual Fuel Oil-Domestic Demand

Average for the month through Septe nber 1974

4.0

3.5 ..... ~/ .' .... - /.,..­ .­ ...... 3.0 --...... > ~" .. /' -/ ~ " .•.. .~ '0'" ... 1+...... l-~...~ Q) ~, ...... • • ...... J Co ••• .... • 2.5 ... '4 '" I"'"' ~ -c'. oil""; ~ ... ~ ;...... _...... ~-.,. ... vt .0'" -­ cJI -0 2.0 - '"c V 0 r- ~ 1.5 Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct" Nov Dec 1972 ---...... 1973 1974

. " Distillate Fuel OillDomestic·Demi:lnd

Average for the month through September 1974

5.0

4.5 ...... ··A I' 4.0 , ~ &.J ..... ~ > 3.5 ~" ~ <0 _-7 -0 ... ~,••• "/ a.C1l 3.0 ..1. ~ - ...

Jet Fuel-Domestic Demand

Average for the month through September 1974

1.3

1.2

\ ~., J," 1.1 ,.. "A& .... I > -. ~ ~. Ii"'"'" J _\r ~ <0 .­ •• ~ ~ " -0 I ... •... ~··7 ... •• ~ ••• t~~ lcc.:: ~, C1l •• ••••••• a. .-/ ..~- •• ./ I / '­ .~ 1.0 •• 1'""­ " "ii'" ~- / '" /4 ... , . <0 - .Q ...... / .... 0 0.9 \ ~ en , c: ::J .2 " ~ 0.8 Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1972 --- 1973 1974 .

. _------.-- ..----.------~ EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET

WASHINGTON, D.C. 20503 Decerrber 19, 1974 BRIEFING ON ENERGY. POLICY OPl'IONS AND ROCOMMENDATIONS 'll1.ursday, Iecenber 19, 1974 3: 30 p.m. (120 minutes) 'll1.e cabinet Room

From: Frank Zarb

I. PURPOSE

To review and discuss the options .for resp:mding to the Nation's energy proolems developed by the Energy Resources CoUncil.

II. BACKGROrnD, PARrICIPANTS & PRESS PIAN

A. BackgrOlmd: 'Ihe Energy Resources COlIDCil has completed its 12 nonth effort to assess the Nation's energy situation and develop specific options for responding to that situation. 'll1.e options and the ER:: I S reconmendations will be discussed. No decisions are expected at the meeting.

B. Participants: Rogers furton, Frank ZaID, Bill Sinon, Herny Kissinger, Roy Ash, Russell Train, Bill Seidman, Alan Greenspan Jolm Hill, Eric Zausner, Mike Duval, Arthur Bums.

C. Press Plan: Press Iilato opportunity. M:!eting to be announced.

III. TALKING POINTS

1. As I indicated at our last rreeting, the energy situation is ccmplex and its solutions are difficult. Your rrerrorandum to Ire lays this out very well.

2. I appreciate the work that all of you have done, not only over the past several weeks, but also the past year. I am confident that your effort is the nost comprehensive effort ever undertaken, not only on energy, but prooably on any subject.

3. I would like to have a thorough going discussion today of the key options. I do not plan to make any decisions mtil I have had tirre to fully explore each of the issues with you and others. We will have additional rreetings on this subject before Ir!:{ decisions are made.

4. Reg Morton why don't you and Frank get started. n.:~ · ..... ("", if ~ _\ : .~ v :G~)

S'GSt.JZCT:

?::. ('<:2..C~~e(..1 are t.ne la:t::.?;st ~?e·trr:JIC"(l:n E3~:a · tist.iC3 £0.1:­ t_:-;"6 . ~ : ::~·:l ::· '~'l ~::;e]-~ l~~'::;"': iod ~:r~dinS' })2cerr:..l:H.~:: 13 l 1974 ~

DClT:.z':'lJ. is r·Ql1ni:lt] si'grli£i.c,:::rl '.:'ly abo -v ~~ .last: ~!'2:::..r J~;; · le~.rel and above }'Otlr one rJ.i.1:lion barrels per ~j{iy progrm~ c;cal.

rleating 0; 1 an~3. rOSii'J.tlal (.)':'1 Zlre .beir.~J CQr~;31.L'7'~~2·Q a t. re(~uced levels, but gasolille con.su~:.1 ~) t;ioT1 a:'l.tJ. (~O:15w'1lpt:.iQl"l of otJlcr ?ro·~1uct.S is abova luSt.:. ~"iear"/ s

I['ota.l i;nports for ~l~e latcs·t fc~::- '!,...:e8 }~~ :L~; 7'.4 :;:.i:'':i.:.·rt }J a::l.·cl ·s 'DeI" C3.jl'l 'ur) :::; ~ ~ :.::::·l:,,-' . f:J:'Ol';\ ~~,..2 ci llio~ barrels per day Ijs~ yea~.

"t:1ousand barrel!~ ab~:)'!iI"'·e :2jC[jBctec. let;Gls -,. r.)o~3.sib ly :::1 t:.;; t () s t.o c ~~ :~?:il il'1 . g g i~jeIl Cl.;.~-:,~:-·(~ rlt.

ZE18t.r to"t:,c1.1 irl V· ·~.~ o::i ~:!s 0.-: }: ~~y p ro(::u~ts c~re 2"1~:;o :a ";.: ::1.g;'1 .12~.tel£ i 811 T:1il j _ i;"J: ~~ :;£~ rr21s t~~; c O;~:i)Zi.:r·c~2 t:o ~;~ ~ ,'1 :::illic

( .,

. ~ ~7 - -~ 4~·D'.l .·x.·R ·.-J-S-_., ·.1 . _?,/)·_).·I/ ~,4 j~ :~ ·,-, .3.usner::7';, a .L.: ~i.\\. ~.J", .~ -- - - ~... . KEY PETROLEUM STl\TIS'I'ICS SUM-1Z\RY

For four-week periexl ending December 13, 1974

(In barreis per day)

TOl'AL OIL DEMAND

Expected demBnd witi10ut conservation 18,793,000 Required to meet President's goal* 18,623,000 Apparent demand *~~ 18,742,000 Dernand under (over) President's goal (119,000)

OIL IMPORl'S

Expected imports witi10ut conservation 6,807,000 Required to IT2et President's goal* 6,637,000 Actual irn;?orts 7,407,000 Imports l..mder (over) President's goal . (770,000)

DEr-1Ai'ID FOR KEY PRODUCTS

Heating Residual Gasoline Oil Oil " Expected demand without 6,348,000 4,073,000 3,218,000 conservation Required to meet President's 6,298,000 4,047,000 3,197,000 goal Apparent danand** 6,670,000 3,724,000 2,907,000 Demand under (over) (312,000) 323,000 290,000 President's goal

*For the one million barrel per day saving goal, 170,000 barrels per day is the goal for the first three months of 1975.

**Proo.uction plus .imports, adjusted for inventory change in primary storage. [ Apparent Domestic Demand for Residual Fuel Oil f

,v

l­ I­

1.0~ I I I I I I I I I 1 1 I J F M'A M J J A SON D J F M AM J J A SON D J F M A M J SEPT DEC 1973 1974 1975

FORECAST -----­ Sources: FEA from May 1974 forward. TARGET ••••••••••••••••••••••••• . ! Bureau of Mines for April 1974 and earlier. .. , ACTUAL

,"... ;"" :" ,

.' ~ " . , '...... ; ,'.. " ...... ' ... ,~, tUtfIJ

.", 7­ 'l.·.).'.(~'~ .' ::u I( '.. '. ~ . .~ .

.. i lPparent Domestic Demand for Distillate Fuel Oil j 5.0

4.5

>

2.5

2.0 J F MA M J J AS 0 N D J F M AM J J AS 0 N D J F M AM J SEPT DEC 1975 1973 1974

Sources: FEA from May 1974 FORECAST ~ureau of Mines for April 1974 and earlier. ------TARGET III...... ••••••• ACTUAL : t ,

!

•

Apparent Domestic Demand for Motor Gasoline 7.5 r- r- r­ r­ ) ,. > 7.0 c:( c I-­ (' ~~ .~ I'-­ c:( ; ~## \J en ,I-­ I w-I ~ - . '\ I a: I'-­ :-.~\1 ~f'-'. ~ a: V 6.5 ~ 1il.~ ,~·r \:J ~1 c:( .. ~~' . m t-­ • ~ * I z ~ I ,­.' ~ r~ I 0 I I:r~' ~ '$# i 1--1 I r§ / Ii ·"~u .. ~ :i I ::! ~ :IE ~ §Id 6.0 RI .:; if. "i~~ ;,; ~ .' r- ~ r­ :r~ 5.0 111111j11 I J F M A,., J J A SON D J F.M A M J J AS 0 N D J F M A M J SE PT DEC 1973 1974 1975

Sources: FEA from May 1974 and earlier. FORECAST . Bureau of Mines for April 1974 and earlier. TARGET ~···""""""'I"""'. ACTUAL

--. ' •• ~ • '" ••• - ••••-----__._ 4 __ ' __••• ~ ....__ •••___• ..- ••• _ • ',..... • ••• ___• •• __ • ____• ____

;"~.. "~, . ,

Petroleum Imports

8.0 t-- ~ I- ~ I~ ~ 111~ ~ ""' ~~ ~ ~ !I r- / 7.0 IJ .'t r- lJ >­ r- < r- c t- V \\~/! r- l < ~ I nn t- r~ J · , ",'.... en t- .. ..J ~ I ~ ".." ~ ~ ~ --;,..." w r- r II r\i I ~ 6.0 I , - i m< - ~ ~ .V' ! z ~ o r- I ::; r- ~ :::! ~ ~ ~ :! r- 5.0 r-- - ~ ~ E 1.0 J J I I I I I J J I J FMA M J J AS 0 N DJ F MA M J J AS 0 N D J F MA M J SEPT DEC 1973 1974 1975 Sources: FEA from May 1974 forward. . J, Bureau of Mines for April 1974 and earlier. FORECAST -...,..-­ TARGET t ••••••••••••••••••••••• ACTUAL

....:.:: • <.

Apparent Demand For Products 20 - - - - It 19 - ,€\ I i- r-~ 'I «> - ~ c - I ~n~ ,--- yi<. '\, I~ « f- .~lsi r.n ,-- ft .., ..J 18 W -,.- ! n:: :-- I: t\ i- ~ j I n:: I i ~i I: I « ,.-- .. , m f- ~ ~ ! \1 ..I~ . ~ z I 0;• ~ ..... ~ J I N , 0 17 I I .., ..J - -- . ..J - I \' 1 = - V j :E - ":.1 - II 1.,1J ,.- ~rl.. ..~ i- .. ,<.# "'I~ - i\I ~~ ## ...... 16 - I~ <0" I - " , - - v" ~ o I I I I I I I I 1 T J f M AM J J A SON D J F M A M J J AS 0 N D J F M A M J SEPT DEC 1973 1974 : 1975 ' Sources: FEA from May 1974 and earlier. FORECAST .,.; Bureau of Mines for April 1974 and earlier. ---- TARGET ..." ...... 13....

ACTUAL "

Petroleum Imports

8.0 I-­ I-­ i I-­ I), I-­ i-­ 1,,'~ . I-­ I-­ ~ ... ;~~ / i-­ .... ~ i-­ I) 7.0 l- > l- < I- V C I-­ :.'... 1I I­ k 'Til':... J ,'"....."". < -:a ...'" - r ...... en - , ' ..J - ~ ....":,' I 11 ., W - \\ ~!~ l .. So; III :,' l 6.0 ~ 1 ; I g§ I « ~W , ! OJ I­ I-­ z ...­ V o - ::i ,...­ · . ~ l­ ~ :­ · , - 5.0 l- I-­ l- I- l­ i­ • :qt::::"'" 1.0 T I I I I I r , , I J F,M'A M J J A 5.0 N OJ F M A rJI J J A SON 0 J F M AM J SEPT·D 1973 1974 1975

Sources: FEA from May 1974 forward. Bureau of Mines for April 1974 and earlier. FORECAST TARGET ••••••••••••••••• . ­ ACTUAL

, .

~. .' . ":'. . ' . .. ': .~ .. ~

'. ~ .' l.·..... , ~":~~ . ~ .:' i. . :. '~-~~'.' '. . ..'" fOf/"~ • 't.<. I ~"1'\ ~: . . ~ '. . . " ,', . . ':" . .. "... ''1:~~ . ~~t~{ ". ", ,I ....' ....~'". " .::-< .

, ,~ " ':..',.. , :. :' . ,., . . .'" .

:~ . . . ' ,

I

FEDERAL ENERGY ADMINISTRATION W,ASHINGTON, D. C. 20461

OFFlCE OF TH E AO;)'ITNiS",ATOR

December 26, 1974

MEHORANDUM FOR THE PRESIDENT

THROUGH: ROGERS C.B. MORTON FROM:;.:'" FRANK G. ZARB p\

SUBJECT: ENERGY MEETING FRIDAY, DECE~rnER 27

Attached is a preliminary briefing paper for our third energy po~icy~meeting.

We now have a wide agreement among the Energy Resources Council Members concerning the total size':and shape of the recommended energy package.

During our last meeting you raised a number of questions and you will recall there were disagreements on a limited number of issues. At our meeting on Friday, we will out­ line a proposed National Energy Policy, answer the questions you raised, and request a decision on the eight remaining , issues.

Attachment (~1t,~ ~«.4 a... d tJl a.:rr:::,) b