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Risk Assessment and Mitigation in Central Asia

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Risk assessment and mitigation in Central Asia: implications for foreign direct investment and the Belt and Road Initiative This document is an executive summary of research undertaken for the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) by independent academics Alessandro Arduino and Andrew Cainey. The contents of this summary reflect the opinions of the individual authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the EBRD. Hyperlinks to non-EBRD websites do not imply any official endorsement of or responsibility for the opinions, data or products presented at these locations, or guarantee the validity of the information provided. The sole purpose of links to non-EBRD sites is to indicate further information available on related topics. Terms and names used in this paper to refer to geographical or other territories, political and economic groupings and units, do not constitute and should not be construed as constituting an express or implied position, endorsement, acceptance or expression of opinion by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development or its members concerning the status of any country, territory, grouping and unit, or delimitation of its borders, or sovereignty. Risk assessment and mitigation in Central Asia: implications for foreign direct investment and the Belt and Road Initiative 1 Contents 1. Executive Summary ................................................................................................................................ 3 1.1. Introduction .................................................................................................................................... 3 1.2. Central Asia in transition ................................................................................................................ 3 1.3. The Belt and Road Initiative and Chinese investment in Central Asia ........................................... 3 1.4. Financial risks ................................................................................................................................ 4 1.5. Non-financial risks.......................................................................................................................... 4 1.6. Risks with Chinese characteristics ................................................................................................. 4 1.7. Mitigating risks ............................................................................................................................... 6 2. Investment risks in Central Asia ............................................................................................................. 9 2.1. Economies and foreign direct investment in Central Asia .............................................................. 9 2.2. Framework for assessment of risks ............................................................................................... 9 2.3. Comparison of risks across countries .......................................................................................... 11 2.4. Assessment of security challenges: From terrorism to criminal violence and cybersecurity ........ 12 2.5. Cybersecurity: a crisis in the making ............................................................................................ 13 3. China’s investments and approach to risk in Central Asia ................................................................... 14 3.1. China and the Belt and Road Initiative in Central Asia ................................................................. 14 3.2. Chinese FDI in Central Asia .......................................................................................................... 15 3.3. The experience of Chinese investment in Central Asia – country by country ............................... 16 3.4. Approach to risk management for Chinese SOEs in Central Asia ................................................. 18 3.5. A case study of Chinese SOEs in Central Asia .............................................................................. 21 3.6. China’s perspective on security risk assessment and management ........................................... 22 3.7. China’s approach to Central Asia risk guarantee: the role of Sinosure ........................................ 24 3.8. The evolving role of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation....................................................... 25 4. Approaches to mitigating risk ............................................................................................................... 27 4.1. Potential routes to improving risk mitigation................................................................................ 27 4.2. The role of public-private partnerships......................................................................................... 28 5. Conclusion and implications................................................................................................................. 29 Annex 1. Country profiles .............................................................................................................................. 32 Kazakhstan .............................................................................................................................................. 32 Kyrgyz Republic ........................................................................................................................................ 35 Mongolia................................................................................................................................................... 37 Tajikistan .................................................................................................................................................. 40 Turkmenistan ........................................................................................................................................... 43 Uzbekistan................................................................................................................................................ 46 Annex 2. Data ............................................................................................................................................... 48 Risk assessment and mitigation in Central Asia: implications for foreign direct investment and the Belt and Road Initiative 2 1. Executive Summary 1.1. Introduction Central Asia has many attributes as a destination for foreign direct investment (FDI), but it has long had a reputation as a difficult environment for foreign investors. Although the region’s extensive natural resources and markets do offer an attractive rationale for investment, and have led to significant capital investment, some companies have faced challenges with regard to the business environment. Gaps in infrastructure have also been problematic. Indeed, the predominant theme for many foreign investors in Central Asia has been one of risk, rather than reward. However, two factors suggest that there is potential for positive change. First, important advances in Central Asian regional cooperation and economic growth have attracted the interest of a new wave of international investors. Second, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and the associated growth of Chinese investment in Central Asia, have opened up new opportunities, as well as risks. Central Asian countries, foreign investors and international development partners share common interests in understanding and mitigating risks in order to maximise their opportunities for successful investment and economic development. 1.2. Central Asia in transition There are significant opportunities within the economies of Central Asia. The region faces changes in the international geopolitical order and its own socioeconomic transitions, as well as in energy and security relationships. Yet regional growth, at 4.6 per cent in 2018, is strong. While Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Mongolia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan each pursue their own individual development paths, they share similar challenges with regard to national identity, close proximity to major powers, cross-border resource management, relatively high levels of poverty, underinvestment in sustainable infrastructure, and the challenges of economic diversification, job creation and growth. Russia remained for a long time the largest trading partner for the region. Over the past decade, however, ties with China have been strengthening. 1.3. The Belt and Road Initiative and Chinese investment in Central Asia China’s Belt and Road Initiative is now in its fifth year of implementation. The land corridor of the BRI aims to link Asia and Europe through a network of railways, roads, pipelines and power grids. Central Asia is at the heart of the overland route, flowing through Xinjiang and including Mongolia, Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, thereby linking China with the European Union (EU) and with the Arabian Peninsula via South Asia. Central Asian rail links are positioning themselves as alternatives to sea lanes and air transport, mainly for high-value, low-volume goods. The project’s scale is poised to create commercial opportunities in the region for a wide range of companies and service providers from around the world. During the past fifteen years, the pace of economic cooperation – including trade – between China and Central Asian countries has increased exponentially in volume and scope, now involving financial, technical and cultural cooperation. At the regional
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