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Nigeria at a Glance: 2001-02

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COUNTRY REPORT Nigeria At a glance: 2001-02 OVERVIEW Nigeria’s fragile new democracy will be strained by a series of unrelenting problems, including corruption and deep-rooted ethnic and religious tension. The government faces a difficult challenge in promoting national unity among a people disenchanted with the slow pace of national progress. The economy will continue to be driven by the oil sector, with the real economy still weighed down by corruption, poor infrastructure, low productivity and insufficient investment. The EIU forecasts that the rate of real GDP growth will rise gradually from 3.8% in 2000 to 4.8% in 2002. Strong oil prices should lead to large current-account surpluses in 2000 and 2001, but rising imports and lower oil prices will result in a deficit in 2002. Inflation will remain low, but gradually increase from 5% in 2000 to 9% in 2002. Key changes from last month Political outlook • There have been new outbreaks of ethnic and religious unrest. • The government has banned the Oodua People’s Congress (OPC) and other militant ethnic groups. Economic policy outlook • The government has launched a handbook entitled Obasanjo’s Economic Direction, 1999-2003. • The government has outlined its 2001 budget, based on higher oil revenue. Economic forecast • The naira is expected to slip towards the end of the year as a premium opens up between the official and parallel markets. November 2000 The Economist Intelligence Unit 15 Regent St, London SW1Y 4LR United Kingdom The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit is a specialist publisher serving companies establishing and managing operations across national borders. For over 50 years it has been a source of information on business developments, economic and political trends, government regulations and corporate practice worldwide. The EIU delivers its information in four ways: through our digital portfolio, where our latest analysis is updated daily; through printed subscription products ranging from newsletters to annual reference works; through research reports; and by organising conferences and roundtables. The firm is a member of The Economist Group. London New York Hong Kong The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit 15 Regent St The Economist Building 25/F, Dah Sing Financial Centre London 111 West 57th Street 108 Gloucester Road SW1Y 4LR New York Wanchai United Kingdom NY 10019, US Hong Kong Tel: (44.20) 7830 1000 Tel: (1.212) 554 0600 Tel: (852) 2802 7288 Fax: (44.20) 7499 9767 Fax: (1.212) 586 1181/2 Fax: (852) 2802 7638 E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] Website: http://www.eiu.com Electronic delivery This publication can be viewed by subscribing online at http://store.eiu.com/brdes.html Reports are also available in various other electronic formats, such as CD-ROM, Lotus Notes, online databases and as direct feeds to corporate intranets. For further information, please contact your nearest Economist Intelligence Unit office London: Jan Frost Tel: (44.20) 7830 1183 Fax: (44.20) 7830 1023 New York: Dante Cantu Tel: (1.212) 554 0643 Fax: (1.212) 586 1181 Hong Kong: Amy Ha Tel: (852) 2802 7288/2585 3888 Fax: (852) 2802 7720/7638 Copyright © 2000 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited. All rights reserved. Neither this publication nor any part of it may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited. All information in this report is verified to the best of the author’s and the publisher’s ability. However, the EIU does not accept responsibility for any loss arising from reliance on it. ISSN 0269-4204 Symbols in tables “n/a” means not available; “–” means not applicable Printed and distributed by Redhouse Press Ltd, Unit 151, Dartford Trade Park, Dartford, Kent DA1 1QB, UK Nigeria 1 Contents 3 Summary 4 Political structure 5 Economic structure 5 Annual indicators 6 Quarterly indicators 7 Outlook for 2001-02 7 Political outlook 8 Economic policy outlook 9 Economic forecast 12 The political scene 19 Economic policy 23 The domestic economy 23 Economic trends 27 Oil and gas 30 Industry 31 Agriculture 32 Financial services 33 Infrastructure and other services 33 Foreign trade and payments List of tables 9 International assumptions summary 10 Forecast summary 25 Nigerian interbank offer rate, 2000 25 Foreign direct investment List of figures 11 Gross domestic product 11 Naira real exchange rates 24 Interbank & parallel exchange rates, 2000 27 Nigeria’s OPEC quota 29 NNPC costs & revenue 32 Nigerian Stock Exchange, 2000 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2000 EIU Country Report November 2000 . Nigeria 3 Summary November 2000 Outlook for 2001-02 Nigeria’s fragile new democracy will be strained by a series of unrelenting problems, including corruption and deep-rooted ethnic and religious tensions. The government faces a difficult challenge in promoting national unity among a people disenchanted with the slow pace of national progress. The economy will continue to be driven by the oil sector, with the real economy still weighed down by corruption, poor infrastructure, low productivity and insufficient investment. The EIU forecasts that the rate of real GDP growth will rise gradually from 3.8% in 2000 to 4.8% in 2002. Strong oil prices should lead to large current-account surpluses in 2000 and 2001, but rising imports and lower oil prices will result in a deficit in 2002. Inflation will remain low, but gradually increase from 5% in 2000 to 9% in 2002. The political scene More than 100 people have been killed in renewed ethnic fighting between Nigeria’s two largest ethnic groups. The introduction of sharia (Islamic law) in some northern states continues to fuel religious tension in the country, with political leaders in the predominantly Christian southern states demanding greater regional autonomy and control of economic resources. The House of Representatives has begun investigations into corruption within government agencies, but has resisted popular demand for it to investigate itself. Economic policy The government has reiterated its commitment to economic reforms, with the reduction of poverty its top priority. It has also outlined plans to stimulate economic growth outside the energy sector, although these have not been well received. The wide-ranging privatisation programme is behind schedule, but the government is committed to pushing ahead with it. The domestic economy Inflation has continued to fall. The naira has been relatively stable, although there has been worrying growth in the gap between exchange rates in the interbank and parallel markets. The Central Bank cut its minimum rediscount rate to lower bank lending rates. Despite an increase in its OPEC quota, Nigeria is struggling to raise oil output, partly because of continuing community unrest in the Niger Delta and underfunding of the oil sector, although the government plans to boost the budget allocation to joint-venture oil companies to US$3.5bn in 2001 from US$2.5bn in 2000. Foreign trade and President Obasanjo has continued to press for substantial external debt relief. payments Foreign reserves are reported to have risen to US$7.27bn in June. Editors: David Cowan (editor); Pratibha Thaker (consulting editor) Editorial closing date: November 1st 2000 All queries: Tel: (44.20) 7830 1007 E-mail: [email protected] Next report: Full schedule on www.eiu.com/schedule © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2000 EIU Country Report November 2000 4 Nigeria Political structure Official name Federal Republic of Nigeria Form of state Federal republic, comprising 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT, Abuja) Legal system Based on English common law National legislature National Assembly, comprising the 109-seat Senate and the 360-seat House of Representatives, both elected by universal suffrage to serve a four-year term National elections February 1999 (legislative and presidential); next elections (legislative and presidential) due in February 2003; municipal elections due in 2002 Head of state President, elected by universal suffrage to serve a four-year term State government State governors and state houses of assembly National government The Federal Executive Council, which is chaired by the president; appointed June 30th 1999 Main political parties People’s Democratic Party (PDP); All People’s Party (APP); Alliance for Democracy (AD) President & commander-in-chief of the armed forces Olusegun Obasanjo Vice-president Atiku Abubakar Agriculture & rural development Hassan Adamu Aviation Kema Chikwe Commerce in Africa Mustapha Bello Communications Mohammed Arzika Culture & tourism Tonye Graham-Douglas Defence Lieutenant-General (rtd) Theophilus Yakubu Danjuma Education Tunde Adeniran Environment Sani Zango Daura FCT administration Ibrahim Bunu Finance Adamu Ciroma Foreign affairs Sule Lamido Health Tim Menakaya Industries Steven Akiga Information Jerry Gana Internal affairs Sunday Afolabi Attorney general of the federation & justice Bola Ige Labour & productivity Musa Gwadabe Police affairs Major-General (rtd) David Jemibewon Power & steel Segun Agagu Science & technology Ebitimi Banigo Solid minerals Kanu Godwin Agabi Sports Damishi Sango Transport Ojo Maduekwe Water resources Mohammadu Bello Kaliel Works & housing Tony Anenih Central Bank governor Joseph Sanusi EIU Country Report November 2000 © The Economist
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