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Principles of Flood Management

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Principles of Flood Management CONFIDENTIAL Report No. 22040-CHA Product ID Code: P053602 Public Disclosure Authorized CHINA Public Disclosure Authorized AGENDA FOR WATER SECTOR STRATEGY FOR NORTH CHINA VOLUME 3: STATISTICAL ANNEXES Public Disclosure Authorized March 1, 2001 Project Sponsors: Ministry of Water Resources and the World Bank Public Disclosure Authorized Joint Report by the World Bank, Sinclair Knight Merz and Egis Consulting Australia (AusAID), General Institute for Water Resources Planning (MWR), Institute of Water and Hydropower Research ( Beijing), Institute of Water and Hydrology Research, (Nanjing), Chinese Research Academy for Environmental Sciences (Beijing). CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS (As of January 1, 2001) Currency Unit = Yuan (Y) US$1.00 = Y 8.3 Y 1.00 = US$ 0.12 FISCAL YEAR January 1 - December 31 WEIGHTS AND MEASURES Metric System ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS 3-H Hai, Huai and Yellow (Huang) River Basins NIHWR Nanjing Institute of Hydrology and Water AEP Annual Exceedance Probability Research (NIHWR) ARI Average Recurrence Interval O&M Operation and Maintenance Bcm Billion Cubic Meters P1 Program 1 BLM Basin Level Modeling P2 Program 2 BOD Biological Oxygen Demand P25 25 percent probability of flow (wet) COD Chemical Oxygen Demand P3 Program 3 CRAES Chinese Research Academy for Environment P50 50 percent probability of flow (normal) Systems P75 75 percent probability of flow (dry) DAF Dissolved Air Flotation P95 95 percent probability of flow (very dry) DDGS Dried Distillated Grain Solid PMP Probable Maximum Precipitation EIA Effective Irrigated Areas PPP Pollution Prevention Program EPB Environmental Protection Bureau RBC River Basin Commission FPF Fisheries, Pasture, Forestry SEPA State Environmental Protection Agency GAMS Generalized Algebraic Modeling Systems SIDD Self-Financing Irrigation and Drainage District GDP Gross Domestic Product S-N South-North (Transfer) GIWHP General Institute for Water and Hydropower SNT South North Transfer GW Groundwater SOCAD State Office for Comprehensive Agricultural HRC Huai River Committee Development IPPDI Irrigation and Power Planning Design Institute SOE State-Owned Enterprise IRI Irrigation Requirement Index SS Suspended Solids IWHR Institute of Water Research and Hydropower SW Surface Water Research TFP Total Factor Productivity km2 Square kilometers TN Total Nitrogen lcd Liters per capita per day TP Total Phosphorus LIS Large Irrigation Scheme TVE Township and Village Enterprise LP Linear Programming UASB Upflow Aerobic Sludge Blanket LW Local water (runoff from local mountains) WPM-DSS Water Pollution Management Decision Support M&I Municipal and Industry System m3 cubic meters WTP Water Treatment Plant m3/s Cubic Meters per Second WW Wastewater Mcm Million Cubic Meters WWEM Water and Waste Estimation Model MSG Monosodium Glutamate WWTP Wastewater Treatment Plant MWR Ministry of Water Resources Vice President : Jemal-ud-din Kassum, EAPVP Sector Director : Mark D. Wilson, EASRD Country Director : Yukon Huang, EACCF Task Manager : Daniel Gunaratnam, EACCF CONTENTS CONTENTS .......................................................................................................................................i Annex 1: Statistics Related to Chapter 1...............................................................................................1 Table A1-1: Percent of National Crop Production Grown in the 3-H Basins................................1 Figure A1-1: Spatial and Temporal Variation of Rainfall in 3-H basins ......................................1 Figure A1-2: Water per Capita in Different Basins in China ......................................................2 Figure A1-3: Economic Loss Resulting From Floods in Plains and Nonplains Areas Within the 3- H Basins Compared with China ...................................................................................2 Figure A1-4: Gross Industrial Output Value in 1999 for the 3-H Basins .....................................2 Annex 2: Statistics Related to Chapter 2...............................................................................................4 Figure A2-1: Rural per Capita Annual 1999 Income Components for Provinces in 3-H Basins ....4 Figure A2-2: Urban versus Rural Income by Provinces with Percentage of Each Province in the 3-H Basins .................................................................................................................4 Figure A2-3: Changing Structure of Employment in China for 1990 to 2056...............................5 Figure A2-4: Water Demand Projections Based on Different Economic and Social Scenarios ......6 Annex 3.1: The 3-H Modeling System .................................................................................................7 Table A3.1-1: Nodes in the Basin Models.................................................................................8 Table A3.1-2: Study Regions—Size and Location................................................................... 10 Table A3.1-3: Model Regions: Characteristics and 1997 Consumption..................................... 11 Figure A3.1-1: the Relation of Nodes, Regions and Flows....................................................... 12 Table A3.1-4: Crop Choices in the Basin Models .................................................................... 13 Figure A3.1-2: The Solution Procedure.................................................................................. 15 Table A3.1-5: Model Validation Against 1997 Data................................................................ 23 Appendix 1.1: GAMS Statement of the Yellow Basin Model................................................... 25 Appendix 1.2: GAMS Statement of the Hai Basin Model........................................................ 26 Appendix 1.3 GAMS Statement of the Huai Basin Model........................................................ 27 Annex 3.2: Statistics Related to Chapter 3.......................................................................................... 28 Table A3-1: Percentage of Runoff Occurring in Flood Months (June-October) ......................... 28 Table A3.2-2: Estimated Relative Contributions from Rural and Urban Point Sources in the Hai and Huai Basins........................................................................................................ 28 Table A3.2-3: Groundwater Quolity Assessment for Some Provinces in the 3H Basins (%)....... 28 Table A3.2-4: Water Volume for Irrigation Compared to Other Uses in 1994-1998................... 29 Table A3.2-5: Summarized Changes of Crop and Income Patterns in 3-H Basin ....................... 30 Table A3.2-6: Feasibility of Artificial Recharge in Cities in 3-H Basins ................................... 31 Figure A3.2-1: Economic Losses........................................................................................... 33 Figure A3.2-2: Flood Deaths/Million Population in Each Province .......................................... 33 Figure A3.2-3: Percentage of Drained Land to Total Cultivated Land in China ......................... 33 Figure A3.2-4: Crop Irrigated Area in China from 1980 to 1998 .............................................. 34 Figure A3.2-5: Fertilizer Use in China from 1980 to 1995 ....................................................... 34 Figure A3.2-6: Effective, Actual and Stable Irrigation Areas in 3-H Basins and In China .......... 34 Figure A3.2-7: Composition of Irrigation Area in China .......................................................... 35 - ii - Figure A3.2-8: Percentage of Labor Force in Three Sectors According to Official Figures......... 35 Figure A3.2-9: Farmers’ Income Changes in Henan Province.................................................. 36 Figure A3.2-10: Farmers’ Income Changes in Shandong Province ........................................... 36 Figure A3.2-11: Farmers’ Income Changes in Jiangsu Province............................................... 37 Figure A3.2-12: China: Levels of Government........................................................................ 38 Figure A3-13: Water Management Chart ............................................................................... 39 Map A3.2-1: 2000 Pollution Loads for Priority Cities in Huai Basin under Base Case............... 40 Map A3.2-2: 2000 Toxic COD Pollution Loads for Priority Cities in the Huai Basin under Base Case ........................................................................................................................ 40 Map A3.2-3: 2000 Pollution Loads for Level II Hai Basin under Base Case ............................. 41 Map A3.2-4: 2000 Pollution Loads for Level II Huai Basin under Base Case ........................... 42 Annex 4.1: Statistics Related to Water Resources (Demand by Sectors, Supply by Source) ................... 43 Table A4.1-1: Base Case - Hai River Basin ............................................................................ 43 Table A4.1-2: Base Case - Huai River Basin........................................................................... 44 Table A4.1-3: Base Case - Yellow River Basin ....................................................................... 45 Table A4.1-4: Efficiency 10% Improvement - Hai River Basin ................................................ 47 Table A4.1-5: Efficiency 10% Improvement - Huai River Basin .............................................. 48 Table A4.1-6: Efficiency 10% Improvement - Yellow River Basin .......................................... 50 Table A4.1-7: Efficiency 10% + Reuse
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