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Achieving a Domestic Consensus on Global Climate Change in the United States: Sine Qua Non to an Effective Global Response?

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Achieving a Domestic Consensus on Global Climate Change in the United States: Sine Qua Non to an Effective Global Response? Achieving a Domestic Consensus on Global Climate Change in the United States: Sine Qua Non to an Effective Global Response? A Thesis Presented to the Faculty of The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy by Daniel Alan Reifsnyder In partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy April 2014 Dissertation Committee: Dr. William R. Moomaw, Chair Dr. Andrew C. Hess Dr. William C. Martel Daniel A. Reifsnyder 2505 Valley Drive, Alexandria, VA 22302-2800 703-519-0815 [email protected] Professional Experience DEPARTMENT OF STATE, Washington, D.C. Deputy Assistant Secretary for Environment (2006-present) (Senior Executive Service since 1994) Manage three offices (65 staff) on global climate change, environmental protection (air, ozone layer, chemicals), and conservation/water (forests, biodiversity, coral reefs) -- key achievements: Leading global efforts under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change o Chaired Ad Hoc Working Group on Long Term Cooperative Action (AWG/LCA), delivering major decision on 20 issues (adopted by 195 Parties) at Durban Conference in December 2011 o As AWG/LCA Vice Chair, helped forge historic Cancun Agreement in December 2010 o Crafted a global approach as lead U.S. technology negotiator in Copenhagen, December 2009 Protecting the stratospheric ozone layer/addressing climate change o Designed/ led U.S. effort to accelerate global phase outs of HCFCs – received EPA Ozone Award o Conceived and built a North American alliance to phase down HFCs o Developed new approaches to destroying CFCs in banks (refrigerators/air-conditioners) Orchestrating the Major Economies Forum on Energy and Climate o Advised Special Envoy for Climate Change and Deputy National Security Adviser o Chaired ministerial sessions of the Forum and led drafting efforts for Leaders’ Statement Launching the Climate and Clean Air Coalition o Developed a strategy to forge a new coalition around methane, HFCs and black carbon o Negotiated details among six partner countries through Secretary Clinton’s launch in February 2012 Negotiating a new treaty on mercury o Won new administration’s support for negotiations within three weeks of Inauguration in 2009 o Persuaded UNEP Governing Council to launch intergovernmental negotiating process o Led U.S. Delegation at successful final negotiating session in Geneva in January 2013 Director, Office of Global Change (2001 – 2006) Spear-headed top administration climate and energy initiatives, forging international coalitions: o Asia-Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate o Methane to Markets Partnership (now the Global Methane Initiative) o International Partnership for the Hydrogen Economy o Group on Earth Observations and Global Earth Observation System of Systems o Carbon Sequestration Leadership Forum Served as principal negotiator under the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change Ensured strong U.S. support for Nobel Prize-winning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change FLETCHER SCHOOL OF LAW & DIPLOMACY, TUFTS UNIVERSITY, Medford, MA Research Fellow (2000 – 2001) Explored Constitutional issues on Congressional/Executive powers in foreign affairs Undertook major research project on carbon capture and storage DANIEL A. REIFSNYDER PAGE 2 WOODROW WILSON SCHOOL, PRINCETON UNIVERSITY, Princeton, NJ Visiting Lecturer in Public & International Affairs (1999 – 2000) Taught graduate course in international climate change policy Taught undergraduate courses on greenhouse gas emissions trading and air pollution in China and India DEPARTMENT OF STATE, Washington, D.C. Director, Office of Global Change (1989-2001) Deputy Head of U.S. Delegation in negotiating UN Framework Convention on Climate Change Played senior role in negotiating Kyoto Protocol – served on bureau of negotiating committee Won $3.5 million Global Environment Facility grant, enabling IPCC to finish its Second Assessment Deputy Director, Office of Cooperative Science & Technology Programs (1987-1989) Coordinated work under 25 umbrella S&T agreements and over 600 U.S. agency MOUs Managed second largest office in the bureau – 20 staff Atlantic Desk Officer, Office of Fisheries Affairs (1984-1987) Represented State on New England, Mid-Atlantic and South Atlantic Fishery Management Councils Negotiated multiple Governing International Fishery Agreements under Magnuson Act DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE, NOAA, Washington, D.C. Senior Foreign Affairs Policy Coordinator (1977-1984) Negotiated multiple treaties, including: Pacific Salmon Treaty with Canada, Convention on Salmon in the North Atlantic Ocean, Convention on Future Multilateral Cooperation in the Northwest Atlantic Fisheries, and U.S.-Canada Maritime Boundary and Fisheries Agreement Helped bring U.S. fisheries under coastal state management in wake of extended jurisdiction Assistant to Executive Secretary, U.S.-U.S.S.R Fisheries Claims Board (1974-1977) Reviewed claims of U.S. fishermen for lost vessels and gear and drafted settlement agreements Developed cases, including plotting positions and translating Russian ships’ logs and affidavits E DUCATION GEORGE WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY, National Law Center, Washington D.C., J.D ., 1981 GEORGETOWN UNIVERSITY, Washington, D.C., M.A. (Russian Area Studies), 1976 TRINITY COLLEGE, Hartford, CT, A.B. (Political Philosophy), 1972 L ANGUAGES French (fluent) Russian (working knowledge) A WARDS AND R ECOGNITION • Distinguished Leadership Award, Business Council for Sustainable Energy , December 2012 • Presidential Meritorious Executive Award , September 2011 & September 2005 • EPA Ozone Protection Award , April 2009 • Department of State Superior Honor Award , 1998, 1992, 1991, 1990 (Group), 1989, 1988, 2010 (Group), 2011 (Group), 2012 (Group), 2013 (Group) • Department of State Meritorious Honor Award , 1986 B A R MEMBERSHIPS Virginia State Bar, 1981 Court of Appeals for the 4th Circuit, 1982 District of Columbia Bar, 1982 U.S. Supreme Court, 1990 Abstract Many believe that solving global climate change has become mired in discord and controversy, and that the U.N. negotiations are hopelessly stuck. This study asks why that is and what can be done about it? It argues that the United States is an indispensable party but that the absence of a domestic consensus makes the United States reluctant to lead – and that this is a key reason for the impasse. The study then asks what does agenda setting theory tells us about the current debate over climate policy in the United States and what are the prospects for a major shift toward ‘ whole of country’ engagement? Finally, it asks what impact such a shift by the United States would have on the international negotiations and how quickly it might occur. To assess the current stalemate in the climate negotiations, this study surveys multiple suggestions in the literature about what is blocking progress, and how to move forward. Despite the merits of these ideas, it contends that there is a sine qua non without which little else matters but with which everything is possible. Interviews with senior climate negotiators from a broad cross section of developed and developing countries buttress this argument. The study explores the reasons for U.S. ambivalence through the lens of three theorists – John Kingdon, Frank Baumgartner and Bryan Jones, and Thomas Rochon – and considers how and when significant policy change may occur. Assuming it does, the study asks, “what then?” Returning to the interviews and the “impasse” literature, the dissertation considers the effect of U.S. domestic action on the negotiations. The study reaches six key findings: (1) the United States today can significantly shape the global response to climate change; (2) to play a lead role, significant and far-reaching U.S. domestic action is vital; (3) the United States has broad scope to decide what kind of action makes sense for it, but the impact will need to be viewed by others as significant, in line with the science and perceptions of the U.S. “fair share;” (4) a shift in American attitudes toward climate change is necessary and possible if leadership takes advantage of the next policy window , and creates an effective narrative that convinces the public and the Congress that action is essential; (5) U.S. domestic action is necessary but not sufficient to craft an effective global response that addresses some of the factors that have blocked an agreement thus far; and (6) even with U.S. action and engagement, the issue will be exceedingly difficult to resolve because of the widely varying circumstances and aspirations of the parties and the complexities of the current process. iv Dedication To Dr. Kathryn G. Clay Who agreed to follow my dream, and without whose love, brilliant ideas and unflagging support it would have remained forever ethereal. v Acknowledgments Many people helped me enormously in the course of this journey – my mother, Sally Ann Evans, a teacher now deceased, who began her own, never- ending quest for knowledge, a journey in which I participated and that inspired me; my father, C. Frank Reifsnyder, a jurist also now deceased, who was proud of the accomplishments of his sons but somehow especially proud of those academic; my spouse, Dr. Kathryn G. Clay, whose contributions have been vast and unending; my daughter, Claire E. Reifsnyder, and my son, Benjamin S. Reifsnyder, who lived through my time away and, while sometimes mystified, were always supportive; Dr. Amy F. Richardson, with whom I worked and who introduced me to Professor Daniel Kammen, who
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