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Management of the Economic Capacity of the Region on the Basis of Foresight (On the Example of Adygea, Russia)

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Management of the Economic Capacity of the Region on the Basis of Foresight (On the Example of Adygea, Russia) Zakharova E.N., Kardava E.E., Avanesova R.R., Avramenko E.P., Regional Science Inquiry, Vol. VIII, (2), Special Issue 2016, pp. 45-53 45 article_4_start_page_bookmark MANAGEMENT OF THE ECONOMIC CAPACITY OF THE REGION ON THE BASIS OF FORESIGHT (ON THE EXAMPLE OF ADYGEA, RUSSIA) Elena Nikolaevna ZAKHAROVA Adyghe State University, Maikop Elena Evgenyevna KARDAVA Branch Adygeya State University in Belorechensk 352630, Krasnodar region, Belorechensk Street. March 8 57/1 [email protected] Rita Rafaelovna AVANESOVA Branch Adygeya State University in Belorechensk 352630, Belorechensk, Belorechensk Street. March 8 57/1 Elena Petrovna AVRAMENKO Branch Adygeya State University in Belorechensk 352630, Belorechensk, Belorechensk Street. March 8 57/1 Abstract In connection with the aggravation of crisis phenomena in the economy of Russia caused by the events in Ukraine, the sanctions of the West, oil prices reduction and a decline in the ruble, a new approach to strategic planning is required. Foresight technology is the most appropriate one. The purpose of this article is to give a brief description of the foresight as a technology of foreseeing and identifying the most promising points of regional capacity, aimed at improving the competitiveness on the example of a particular region of the Russian Federation – the Republic of Adygea. The authors note that conducting the regional foresight project must be preceded by an analysis of economic, natural, innovative, and information- technological capacity of the region. The article reviews the methods for foresight, gives the characteristics of natural, economic, innovation and information- technological capacity of the Republic of Adygea. In the article the development problems of the region, uncertainty factors and trends of socio-economic changes in the republic have been identified. The implementation of the foresight project will allow to form the basis for social partnership of government, business and social community in order to better exploit opportunities and the implementation of the economic capacity of the region. Keywords: foresight, forecasting, anticipation, socio-economic development, regional capacity, long-term strategy, uncertainty. JEL classification: Introduction Expanding opportunities of the strategic development of Russian regions is a prerequisite for the formation of a competitive economy of the country. Leadership position of the subjects of the Russian Federation are determined by their ability to actively integrate in the development processes, corresponding to the phase of formation of post-industrial society, as well as by the ability to produce new promising activities, consumption formats and lifestyles. In today's economy the strategic decision-making takes place in an uncertain and challenging macroeconomic conditions and, therefore, requires new practical approaches to the assessment of the current regions capacity and identification of breakthrough areas in which a real socio-economic impact can be achieved [1, 16]. Regional policy should be based on understanding of long-term trends in development of social, economic and technological capacity of the territory. The foresight technology is one 46 Zakharova E.N., Kardava E.E., Avanesova R.R., Avramenko E.P., Regional Science Inquiry, Vol. VIII, (2), Special Issue 2016, pp. 45-53 of the most effective technologies with such opportunities, that allows to anticipate the possible development processes in the long term [2, 18]. International companies use foresight studies in order to identify the future corporate strategy. The foresight methodology is used in the regional development in order to prepare long-term regional concepts and identify promising directions of the region development. In addition, the foresight studies are recommended by the European Commission as a tool for promoting long-term thinking [3]. An overall goal of the regional foresight is to make a valuable contribution to the strategy and development plans of the regions, municipalities, communities, as well as mobilize collective strategic actions [4, 273; 17]. The systematic use of the regional foresight and related approaches in the public and private sector is becoming increasingly important, as the regions play a critical role in creating a unified research environment in Russia. Theoretical and methodological aspects and problems of practical application of the foresight technology in the development of long-term development strategies of Russian regions were considered in the works of Sokolov A.V., Tretyak V.P., Kalyuzhnaya N.Y., Ageev A.I., Voronov Y.P, Kovalchuk M.V., and other authors. At the same time, it should be stated that when carrying out foresight studies more or less standard sequence of actions is not sufficiently reflected in the literature [5]. In this regard, the analysis of the practice and methodology of foresight, determination of possibilities of applying the foresight technology for development of long-term strategies of the region development acquire a particular relevance. The purpose of this article is to give a brief description to the foresight as a technology of anticipation and identification of the most promising points in the regional capacity development aimed at improving the competitiveness on the example of a particular region of the Russian Federation – the Republic of Adygea. Methodology Foresight as a special practice of the future planning has been developing since 60-ies of XX century, constantly expanding the scope of application: firstly, a technological foresight for large companies and branch ministries; then a social, regional, national foresight used for professional communities, authorities and governments. Foresight is a specially organized process of systematic assessment of long-term development prospects of the region with the participation of business, academia, public authorities and civil society institutions. Foresight allows to estimate the possible specialization of a particular region and coordinate the projects development with key stakeholders as an inevitable part of the goal achievement [6]. The foresight methodology allows to predict, and, in some cases, form the future, taking into account all possible changes in such spheres as: science and technology, economics, public administration, social and public relations and culture. Specifics of the foresight is that it contains three complementary areas of activity [7]: • Anticipation of the future. Identification of the underlying trends in socio-economic development of the region. The foresight is aimed at identifying different long-term scenarios for the future, including zones of inevitable, possible and impossible future. • Management of the future. The harmonization of views of key stakeholders on possible options for the future, selection of the most promising scenario, combination of strategic objectives and co-organization of the efforts of all stakeholders, the formation of a broad coalition for the future. • Routing of the future. Development of the "road map" of the future, which presents future targets of the desired future, "points" of changes in the public discourse, priorities and tasks that need to be solved, the necessary administrative decisions, targeted research and developments. The road map allows making key changes providing the possibility for movement into the desired future. The totality of foresight methods can be structured around three categories. The first category includes qualitative methods. They are often used to represent the meaning of events and observations. Such interpretations are usually based on certain attitudes, beliefs and knowledge that are quite difficult to track, because the methods give a great scope for creative and subjective thinking. This category also includes such methods as Zakharova E.N., Kardava E.E., Avanesova R.R., Avramenko E.P., Regional Science Inquiry, Vol. VIII, (2), Special Issue 2016, pp. 45-53 47 retrospective analysis, brainstorming, expert panels, futures workshops, simulation games, interviews, literature review, morphological analysis; questionnaires and surveys; SWOT analysis [8]. The second category consists of semi-quantitative methods based on the use of mathematical calculations, for example, for a quantitative assessment of expert opinion. The database of the foresight study includes several methods: structural analysis, Delphi-survey; key/critical technologies; multi-criteria analysis; quantitative scenarios (statutory minimum wage index), mapping technologies for road mapping. The third category of foresight methods involves quantitative methods. They are often used for monitoring measurable variables, and the statistical methods are used for processing and analysis of "fixed parameters". These methods include modeling and simulation, bibliometrics and extrapolation of trends. A variety of methods, the multiplicity and diversity of expert knowledge allow to "look beyond the horizon" and/or find the "gaps" – essentially new (lying outside the permitted existing ontologies of forecasts and models) possibilities of the future. The set of methods used in foresight studies is chosen taking into account possible resource and time restrictions, the availability of experts of the required qualification, an access to information sources, etc. The foresight process is considered as the interaction of four forces, which can be represented in the form of a quadrangle ("foresight diamond"): cooperation, creativity, expertise, conclusiveness. These attributes
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