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THE CITY and COUNTY of SAN FRANCISCO City and County of San Francisco Hazards and Climate Resilience Plan Public Review Draft December 5, 2019

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THE CITY and COUNTY of SAN FRANCISCO City and County of San Francisco Hazards and Climate Resilience Plan Public Review Draft December 5, 2019 THE CITY AND COUNTY OF SAN FRANCISCO City and County of San Francisco Hazards and Climate Resilience Plan Public Review Draft December 5, 2019 Copies of this document can be found at http://onesanfrancisco.org or through the Office of Resilience and Capital Planning City Hall, Room 347 1 Dr. Carlton B. Goodlett Pl. San Francisco, CA 94102 Table of Contents Chapter 01 Introduction ............................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Purpose and Scope ........................................................................................................................ 2 1.2 Key Changes Since 2014 Hazard Mitigation Plan .......................................................................... 6 1.3 Scope ............................................................................................................................................. 9 1.4 Key Concepts and Terms ............................................................................................................. 11 1.5 Document Overview ................................................................................................................... 13 Chapter 02 Planning Process ...................................................................................................................... 15 2.1 Planning Process Overview ......................................................................................................... 16 2.2 City Agency Engagement ............................................................................................................ 18 2.3 Stakeholder and Public Engagement .......................................................................................... 20 2.4 Existing Reports, Plans, and Other Resources ............................................................................ 29 Chapter 03 San Francisco Risk Landscape .................................................................................................. 33 3.1 Geography ................................................................................................................................... 34 3.2 Demographics ............................................................................................................................. 36 3.3 Economy ...................................................................................................................................... 39 3.4 Assets .......................................................................................................................................... 42 Chapter 04 Hazards Analysis ....................................................................................................................... 51 4.1 Climate Change and Implications for Hazards ............................................................................ 52 4.2 Earthquake .................................................................................................................................. 66 4.3 Landslide ..................................................................................................................................... 89 4.4 Tsunami ....................................................................................................................................... 98 4.5 Flooding ..................................................................................................................................... 107 4.6 Dam or Reservoir Failure .......................................................................................................... 128 4.7 Extreme Heat ............................................................................................................................ 137 4.8 Drought ..................................................................................................................................... 144 4.9 Wildfire...................................................................................................................................... 150 4.10 Large Urban Fire ........................................................................................................................ 159 4.11 High Wind .................................................................................................................................. 170 4.12 Poor Air Quality ......................................................................................................................... 175 4.13 Pandemic ................................................................................................................................... 182 4.14 Hazardous Materials Release .................................................................................................... 187 Chapter 05 Vulnerability and Consequences Assessment ........................................................................ 192 5.1 Assessment Overview ............................................................................................................... 193 5.2 Multi-Hazard Exposure Assessment ......................................................................................... 194 5.3 Key Planning Issues ................................................................................................................... 199 Chapter 06 Capabilities Assessment ......................................................................................................... 216 6.1 SF Government Activities .......................................................................................................... 217 6.2 Status of 2014 HMP Actions ..................................................................................................... 223 Chapter 07 Strategy .................................................................................................................................. 226 7.1 Hazards and Climate Resilience Goals ...................................................................................... 227 7.2 Identifying New and Updated Strategies .................................................................................. 227 7.3 Strategies .................................................................................................................................. 228 7.4 Strategy Descriptions ................................................................................................................ 236 7.5 Additional Strategies for Consideration .................................................................................... 289 7.6 Evaluation Criteria ..................................................................................................................... 290 Chapter 08 Plan Maintenance .................................................................................................................. 294 8.1 Monitoring, Evaluation, and Updates ....................................................................................... 294 8.2 Integration into Other Planning Mechanisms ........................................................................... 295 8.3 Continued Public Participation in Plan Maintenance ............................................................... 296 Appendix A: Vulnerability and Consequences Profiles Appendix B: Out-of-County Major Assets Appendix C: Materials from Stakeholder Engagement Appendix D: Plan Maintenance Documents Appendix E: Local Plan Adoption Appendix F: Capabilities and Existing Actions Appendix G: Acronym Index Chapter 01 Introduction One day if I go to heaven…I’ll look around and say ”It ain’t bad, but it ain’t San Francisco” -Herb Caen Anyone who spends time in San Francisco quickly recognizes its incredible beauty. Dramatic landscapes and vistas, proximity to water, wonderful hills, mild weather, and rolling fog are all part of what make San Francisco such a great place to live. However, the same geologic and climate forces that create this setting also make us susceptibly to natural disasters. Coping with, recovering from, and in many cases thriving after disasters are not new to San Franciscans. The Great Earthquake of 1906 when a magnitude 7.9 earthquake and subsequent fires destroyed 80% as well as smaller earthquakes such as the Loma Prieta Earthquake of 1989 are present in people’s minds. In recent years, new and unprecedented hazards have challenged San Francisco, from extreme heat in 2017 to unhealthy air quality in 2018. Climate science tell us that these and other climate-related hazards, such as coastal flooding and drought, will be on the rise as greenhouse gas emissions drive higher temperatures, higher sea levels, and unpredictable precipitations patterns. The Hazards and Climate Resilience Plan (HCR) captures our latest understanding of how these hazards are changing what we can expect in the years to come. It presents a strategy for how San Francisco will mitigate and adapt buildings, infrastructure, and communities to reduce the impacts of earthquakes, climate change, and other hazards, and become a safer and more resilient city. This chapter describes the purpose, scope, and drivers of San Francisco’s first Hazards and Mitigation Plan. 1.1 Purpose and Scope Purpose The City and County of San Francisco’s Hazards and Climate Resilience Plan (HCR) is a combined hazard mitigation and climate adaptation plan. It serves as the City’s action plan for reducing the impacts of hazards that have long been a part of life in San Francisco, such as
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