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CEE Insurance M&A Outlook Download CEE insurance M&A outlook Momentum is picking up October 2019 Brochure / report title goes here | Section title goes here Contents #1 M&A Advisor by deal count Foreword 05 CEE | Europe | Global Number of M&A deals in the CEE Region 07 Mergermarket, 2018, 2019H1 CEE macroeconomic overview 08 Insurance trends in CEE 09 ADVI Key regional insurance groups 14 A SO & EAL COU and market concentration D N R Y T M B M&A activity in the CEE region 17 Current regulatory matters with 20 #1 potential impact on Insurance M&A M C 1 E E L R E A H Poland 22 | B 9 G E O 1 E ME | GL 0 R A 2 M , The Czech Republic 30 A IV R IT KE IN T AND REF Slovakia 38 Hungary 44 #1 M&A advisor in Central Europe #1 Accounting / Due Diligence Firm Romania 52 pursuant to the number of transactions at the International M&A Awards (Mergermarket, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2010, 2018, 2019H1) by M&A Advisor, 2011 Slovenia 58 #1 M&A advisor Professional Services Firm of the Year in terms of the 4 biggest advisory firms - Big 4 (April 2011) Private Equity Awards 2011 Croatia 66 (Mergermarket, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2010, 2018, 2019H1) Ranked #1 in global consulting Bulgaria 74 Global M&A Advisor Award of the year 2009 by Gartner for the third consecutive year, 2013 by M&A Advisor Serbia 82 Baltic region (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania) 88 Global team of professionals 108 Contacts 110 02 03 CEE Insurance M&A Outlook | Foreword Foreword Leveraging on the success of the 1st (lower economies of scale) to reconsider The CEE region’s market growth potential, release of the CEE insurance M&A study, their strategy in CEE. The continued exit of the increasing capital intensity of the sector we decided to continue our research, large international groups from non-core driven by IFRS17 and SII, together with the provide intelligence on insurance market CEE markets and the acquisitive growth strategic moves of large insurance groups trends and present the recent M&A activity of major regional market players are provide motivating factors to consider in the CEE region. additional key factors boosting momentum trading on both the sell and buy side. There for transactions and market consolidation. are a high number of potential players, who Despite the slight decrease of total gross are ready to move up a gear and engage in written premiums (GWP) of the Polish Although the consolidation has started executing deals. 2018 could be considered market last year, the total CEE market GWP in some of the markets, most of them as one of the most active years in terms of managed to grow by 2.0% year over year are still fragmented in both, life and transaction volume, and the forthcoming in 2018. The growth was driven by the non-life segments. There are a relatively years could have the potential to even continuing expansion of non-life insurance, high number of insurance companies exceed that level of activity. while the life-segment continued to decline with less than 5% market share in many in line with the trend of previous years. The countries, which signals a need for further We hope the second release of CEE M&A regional economies continued to record consolidation. Insurance study will support potential healthy economic growth accompanied investors to navigate the restless sea of the by further improving labour market Besides market dynamics, the new CEE insurance markets in the upcoming conditions. regulatory requirements such as Solvency year. II and the introduction of IFRS 17 are When assessing general insurance market likely to make insurance business more maturity, the average GWP penetration capital extensive thus requiring robust (GWP compared to GDP) remained stable profitability. The market is heavily working over the examined period. 2018 was the towards the implementation of IFRS 17, first time since 2012 when the total CEE which is expected to bring substantially market loss ratio (paid claims to GWP) enhanced transparency via standardization Balázs Mérth increased above 60%. Increasing loss of financial statements and consequently Partner, ratios translates into lower profitability that reducing costs of M&A. Regional Insurance Industry Leader, could put further pressure on insurance Financial Advisory companies with lower market shares Number of M&A deals in the CEE Region (2015 – 2019 August) 2 Poland 14 Czech Republic 10 2 Hungary 6 3 Romania 6 Bulgaria 6 Slovakia 5 14 Croatia 4 10 Slovenia 3 5 Lithuania 3 Serbia 2 6 3 Estonia 2 4 6 Latvia 2 2 6 CEE Insurance M&A Outlook | CEE macroeconomic overview CEE Insurance M&A Outlook| Insurance trends in CEE CEE macroeconomic overview Insurance market trends in CEE Economic progress in the CEE region has potentially weaker global trade. The highest The CEE insurance industry is increasingly the expansion of the non-life insurance The life segment of Poland fell by EUR been remarkable over the past decade. growth rates were achieved in Poland dominated by the non-life sector, segment (6.4%). Meanwhile, the life- 884m (32.4%) mainly due to the unit-linked After the cyclical peak of 4.2% average (5.2%), Hungary (5.0%) and Latvia (5.0%) in specifically the motor segment. Life segment recorded a 5.5% decline in 2018 segment, which was partly compensated GDP growth rate experienced by the 12 2018. Growth was driven by an increasing insurance plays a less significant role and from the previous year. by the increase experienced in the non-life CEE-based countries analysed in 2017, domestic demand fueled by improving suffers from a general lack of awareness segment (property and motor insurance). the region recorded a healthy 4.0% labour market conditions and favorable and shrinking of the unit-linked segment. Almost every country recorded rising GWP growth rate in 2018. This pace of growth, consumer prices across Europe. In 2019, the total gross written premium figures in 2018, except for Poland, which The regional average GWP growth rate was however, might slow down in 2019 due to a (GWP) of the CEE region recorded its experienced a 3.3% decline. Since Poland 8.6% in 2018, which was outperformed highest value since 2010. The region accounted for 40.1% of the total GWP in the by Bulgaria, Croatia, Estonia, Latvia and showed a 2.0% increase of total GWP CEE region in 2018, this decline resulted Lithuania. from 2017 to 2018, which was driven by in the loss of EUR 492m of regional GWP. Figure 1. Changes in real GDP, 2015-2019 9% Figure 3. Gross Written Premiums in CEE, 2010 - 2018 (EUR m) 7% 5% 25 000 4,2% 23 795 4,0% 22 367 3% 19 351 20 000 18 721 1% 18 121 17 340 17 501 16 698 17 074 PL CZ SK HU RO SL HR BG SRB EE LV LT -1% 15 331 14 513 14 934 14 654 15 000 2016 2017 2018 2019 forecast Average - 2017 Average - 2018 13 866 13 353 12 957 12 169 12 251 Source: EIU 10 000 On average the unemployment rate year. Croatia recorded the most significant decreased by 1.1% point from 7.6% to 6.5% improvement: a reduction by 2.6% points. 5 000 in 2018 considering all the twelve countries. Most countries saw a significant increase Serbia reserved the highest unemployment of real wages together with a falling rate (12.7%), which nevertheless indicates a unemployment rate, which resulted in a - 2.3% point improvement from the previous climbing inflation. 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Life Non-life Figure 2. Unemployment rate, 2015 - 2018 Source: Xprimm 20% With results of EUR 12,251m and EUR The Estonian and Latvian market 23,795m, the life and non-life segments experienced the highest annual growth 15% accounted for 34.0% and 66.0% of total rate (19.3% and 19.0% respectively) in the GWP in 2018, respectively. examined period. Nominally, the increase 10% of the whole CEE market was driven by 7,6% 6,5% the Polish market, which could increase 5% with a CAGR of 6.8% or by EUR 896m annually. 0% PL CZ SK HU RO SL HR BG SRB EE LV LT 2016 2017 2018 Average - 2017 Average - 2018 Source: EIU 08 09 CEE Insurance M&A Outlook| Insurance trends in CEE CEE Insurance M&A Outlook| Insurance trends in CEE Figure 4. Average annual GWP volume growth and GWP CAGR (2016-2018, EUR m, %) Figure 5. Insurance market GWP penetration and GWP/capita, 2018 25,0% 1 200 2.5% : S g v E a 20,0% 1 000 L -2018) 6 1 0 2 800 ( 15,0% ) L % C ( R a G B t i A PL; 896; 6.8% p 600 C a 10,0% c P / S SR P W W G H S G 400 5,0% C avg: 387 S H 200 R 0,0% (300) (100) 100 300 500 700 900 1 100 S 0 Average annual GWP volume growth EURm (2016-2018) 0,5% 1,5% 2,5% 3,5% 4,5% 5,5% -5,0% GWP penetration Source: Xprimm, Intelligence Research Source: Xprimm, Deloitte Intelligence Note: Size of the bubbles represents the number of transactions The CEE countries fall into three categories Countries with average GWP/capita and Due to its very special health insurance Total paid claims in the region increased slightly, by 2.7% in 2018 sharpest decline (EUR 202m or 5.3%).
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