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Aegon N.V. Aegon N.V Insurance Life Insurance Netherlands Ratings Aegon N.V. Aegon N.V. Long-Term IDR A- And Core Subsidiaries Short-Term IDR F2 Scottish Equitable Plc Insurer Financial Strength Rating A+ Transamerica Financial Life Insurance Company Key Rating Drivers Insurer Financial Strength Rating A+ Short-Term Insurer Financial WD Very Strong Business Profile: Fitch Ratings ranks Aegon N.V.’s business profile as ‘favourable’ Strength Rating compared to other Dutch insurance companies. Geographic diversification is broad; non- Transamerica Life Insurance Company Dutch assets account for about 80% of the group’s assets. Aegon has a substantial life Insurer Financial Strength Rating A+ insurance franchise in the Netherlands focusing on retirement services and savings, where it Short-Term Insurer Financial F1+ has top three market positions. It also has significant life and pension operations in the US and Strength Rating the UK. Transamerica Premier Life Insurance ‘Very Strong’ Capitalisation and Leverage: Aegon’s end-2019 Prism Factor-Based Capital Company Model (Prism FBM) score was unchanged at ‘Very Strong’ and the group’s Solvency II (S2) ratio Insurer Financial Strength Rating A+ was 201%. The S2 ratio improved to 208% in 1Q20 due to the increase of the S2 volatility Short-Term Insurer Financial WD adjuster (VA), although this was partly offset by adverse market movements in the US. The Strength Rating financial leverage ratio (FLR) decreased to 25% in 2019 on the successful issuance of Note: See additional ratings on page 8. restricted Tier 1 (RT1) notes during the year. Good Financial Performance: Aegon’s underlying earnings could weaken in 2020 due to the Outlooks impact of the coronavirus pandemic on US operations, while earnings in Europe are expected Negative to remain more resilient. Aegon’s underlying operating earnings are fairly stable but its net result has been volatile due to the frequent recurrence of significant non-operating items. Net income return on equity (ROE) increased to 7% in 2019 on smaller negative non-operating Financial Data items. Aegon N.V. Strong Debt Service Capabilities: Aegon’s fixed-charge coverage (FCC) is ‘Strong’ (five-year (EURm) 2018 2019 average: 5x; 2019: 8x) but has been volatile due to earnings fluctuations. Fitch assesses Aegon’s refinancing risk as low given its very strong regulatory capitalisation, robust cash Total assets 393,031 441,123 position, and its proven and stable market access at reasonable funding costs. Net income 744 1,528 Net income ROE (%) 4 7 Investment Risk Is Low: At end-1Q20 credit impairments in Aegon’s fixed-income portfolio Solvency II ratio (%) 211 201 remained below the long-term average but could increase due to the effects of the pandemic. Financial leverage (%) 27 25 However, Fitch believes credit deterioration will not be material enough to undermine the group's investment risk metrics. Aegon’s non-investment-grade exposure is limited and mainly Note: Reported on an IFRS basis Source: Fitch Ratings; Aegon includes corporate debt and residential mortgage-backed securities issued before 2007. Rating Sensitivities Applicable Criteria Higher FLR, Weaker Capitalisation, ROE: Should the FLR increase above 30% on a sustained Insurance Rating Criteria (March 2020) basis, or if the Prism FBM score falls below 'Very Strong', or if net income ROE drops below 3%, a negative rating action could occur. Related Research Improved Financial Performance: An upgrade is unlikely over the near-term, but longer-term it could result from a net income ROE in excess of 7% for a sustained period, with a Prism FBM Aegon Bank N.V. (June 2020) score of at least 'Very Strong'. A positive rating action is prefaced by Fitch's ability to reliably Aegon Americas (And North American forecast the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the financial profiles of both the Dutch Subsidiaries of Aegon N.V.) (October 2019) and US insurance industries and Aegon. Netherlands (May 2020) Pandemic Assumptions: A material adverse change in Fitch's rating assumptions with respect to the impact of the pandemic could lead to a negative rating change or downgrade. Conversely, a material positive change in Fitch's rating assumptions with respect to the impact Analysts of the pandemic could lead to a positive rating change or upgrade. Andras Sasdi +49 69 768076 162 Outlook Revision: Aegon maintaining its balance-sheet strength and capitalisation in line with its targets and without material declines in profitability could lead to a revision of the Outlook [email protected] to Stable from Negative. Federico Faccio +44 20 3530 1394 [email protected] Rating Report │ 31 July 2020 fitchratings.com 1 Insurance Life Insurance Netherlands Key Credit Factors – Scoring Summary Bar Chart Legend Vertical Bars = Range of Rating Factor Bar Colors = Relative Importance Higher Influence Moderate Influence Lower Influence Bar Arrows = Rating Factor Outlook Positive Negative Evolving Stable Latest Developments Peer Comparison On 14 May 2020, Fitch revised the Outlook for Aegon N.V., its primary North American Click here for a report that shows a life insurance subsidiaries, Transamerica Financial Life Insurance Company, comparative peer analysis of key Transamerica Life Insurance Company and Transamerica Premier Life Insurance credit factor scoring. Company, known collectively as Aegon Americas, and Edinburgh-based Scottish Equitable Plc to Negative from Stable. The Outlook revision reflects the disruption to Industry Profile and economic activity and financial markets caused by the coronavirus pandemic. Operating Environment (IPOE) Click here for a link to a report that summarises the main factors driving the above IPOE score. Aegon N.V. Rating Report │ 31 July 2020 fitchratings.com 2 Insurance Life Insurance Netherlands Business Profile Very Strong Business Profile Fitch ranks Aegon’s business profile as ‘favourable’ compared to other Dutch insurance companies, due to its favourable competitive positioning, moderate business risk profile and most favourable diversification. Given this ranking, Fitch scores Aegon’s business profile at ‘aa’ under its credit factor scoring guidelines. Although the majority of Aegon’s operations are in the US, we assess its competitive positioning in a European context and relative to other insurers in the Netherlands. This is due to significant operations in its home country, the Netherlands. However the size and market position of the US and UK operations also inform our assessment. Aegon maintains a substantial life insurance franchise in the Netherlands, focusing on retirement services and savings where it typically has a market position in the top three. Non- life operations, however, remain small. Aegon also has a market-leading position as a savings platform provider in the UK, with a market share of around 23% based on assets under administration. In the US, Aegon is one of the top 10 entities in the not-for-profit defined contribution retirement market, as well as in the sale of individual life products. It is also one of the top five insurers in the US indexed universal life insurance market. The business risk profile assessment reflects the impact of Aegon America’s exposure to legacy long-term care insurance (LTC) and above-average exposure to variable annuities. Fitch views LTC insurance as one of the riskiest products sold by US life insurers due to above- average underwriting and pricing risk, high reserve and capital requirements, and exposure to low interest rates. In the Netherlands, Aegon has continued its strategy of transforming into a capital -light organisation with a predominant focus on pension servicing and banking. Aegon’s diversification ranking reflects its broad geographic diversification compared with other large Dutch insurers, with non-Dutch assets accounting for about 80% of the group’s total assets. Aegon has substantial operations in the US and also in the UK. Ownership Aegon is publicly listed, and therefore ownership is neutral to its ratings. Aegon’s common shares are listed on two stock exchanges: Amsterdam and New York. It has an international shareholder base, with the majority in the US and Europe (including the UK). Aegon N.V. Aegon Asset Aegon Europe Aegon International Management Holding B.V. B.V. Holding B.V. The Aegon Trust Asset European Asian joint US business management business business ventures Source: Fitch Ratings, Aegon Aegon N.V. Rating Report │ 31 July 2020 fitchratings.com 3 Insurance Life Insurance Netherlands Capitalisation and Leverage Financial Highlights ‘Very Strong’ Capitalisation and Leverage (EURm) 2018 2019 Aegon’s Prism FBM score was unchanged at ‘Very Strong’, while its group S2 ratio weakened Shareholders’ equity 19,450 22,477 by 10bp to 201% at end-2019. TFC ratio (x) 1.4 1.4 Aegon is subject to S2 regulations in Europe and risk-based capital (RBC) in the US. Fitch Financial leverage (%) 27 25 primarily assesses Aegon’s regulatory capital adequacy on a group basis under S2. Aegon Group solvency II ratio (%) 211 201 entered the coronavirus pandemic with a solid capital position. The group S2 ratio (208%) US RBC ratio (%) 465 470 benefited from the increase of the S2 VA mechanism in 1Q20 (208%; 171% excluding VA)1, TFC: Total financing and commitments and was partly offset by adverse market movements in the US. The 1Q20 US RBC ratio fell to Note: Reported on a IFRS basis 376% but remained above the bottom-end of the management’s target range. Source: Fitch Ratings; Aegon Financial leverage decreased
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