Fisheries and Ecological Responses to Abrupt Ocean Climate Changes (or did foreign markets do it?)

Jerry Norton, Jan Mason and Sam Herrick

Southwest Fisheries Science Center (NOAA) Question: How much of the variation in fisheries landings is due to economic and management factors and how much is due to measurable environmental variation?

First, illustrate controversy and confusion. (apparent responses to climate events)

Second, present progress in finding solutions. Dolphin (), or mahi mahi or dorado catch by southern California Commercial Passenger Fishing Vessels Dolphin (fish), or mahi mahi or dorado catch by southern California Commercial Passenger Fishing Vessels History of California Commercial Swordfish Landings Time and area closures, net (Imports limited) restrictions, limited entry Use composite to avoid particular problems

EOF analysis of 29 with landings reported through 75 years Table 1. Harvest habitat for the 29 ecosystem indicator species.

Demersal species code* scientific name cabezon cbzn Scorpaenichthys marmoratus California halibut chlb Paralicthys californicus California scorpionfish scor guttata California sheephead shpd Semicossyphus pulcher Dungeness (market) dcrb Cancer magister giant seabass gbas Stereolepis gigas lingcod lcod Ophiodon elongatus ocean whitefish owfs princeps Pacific hake (whiting) pwht Merluccius productus Pacific halibut phlb Hippoglossus stenolepis spiny lobster slbs Panulirus interruptus sablefish sabl Anoplopoma fimbria white croaker wcrk Genyonemus lineatus

Wide trophic Migratory species albacore albc Thunnus alalunga representation….. Pacific barracuda cuda Sphyraena argentea Pacific bluefin tuna btna Thunnus orientalis Pacific bonito pbnt Sarda chiliensis skipjack tuna stna Katsuwonus pelamis swordfish swrd Xiphias gladius white seabass wbas Atractoscion noblis yellowfin tuna ytna Thunnus albacares yellowtail yltl dorsalis

Pelagic species chub (Pacific) cmck Scomber japonicus jack mackerel jmck Trachurus symmetricus market msqd Loligo opalescens northern nanc Engraulis mordax Pacific herring phrg Clupea pallasii Pacific pompano (butterfish) pbtr Peprilus simillimus Pacific (pilchard) psdn Sardinops sagax

*Pacific States Marine Fisheries Commission code used in Figure 1

Hunboldt squid: a memorable character

La Jolla (SIO) SST Index

McGowan, Cayan and Dorman, 1998, Science 281: 210

Ending comments

1. Studies at the largest scales of combination suggest that changes in the physical environment affect the availability of fish, revenue earned by the total California catch and capital investment, but additional detail is needed.

2. Management is having increasing affects on landings.

3. Success of management plans in achieving stability in the fisheries will depend on consideration of environmental influence. 4. Ecological space developed in EOF analysis may have utility in organizing other ecosystem components.