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Documentof The World Bank Public Disclosure Authorized Report No. T-7233-CHA

TECHNICAL ANNEX Public Disclosure Authorized THE PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF

HEBEI EARTHQUAKE REHABILITATION PROJECT Public Disclosure Authorized

May 4, 1998 Public Disclosure Authorized

Urban Development Sector Unit East Asia and Pacific Regional Office CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS (As of March 1, 1998)

Currency = Renminbi Currency Unit = Yuan (Y) Y 1.00 = $0.12 $1.00 Y 8.3

FISCAL YEAR

January 1 - December 31

UNITS OF MEASURES

1 meter (m) = 39.37 inches 1 kilometer (km) = 0.62 miles 1 hectare (ha) = 2.47 acres

ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS

HP Province HPG Hebei Provincial Government MOF Ministry of Finance PMO Project Management Office ZM Municipality ZMG Zhangjiakou Municipal Government

Vice President: jean-Michel Severino,EAP CountryDirector: Yukon Huang, EACCF Sector Manager: Keshav Varma, EASUR | Aask Manager: Wiebe Moes, MunicipalEngineer, EASUR CHINA

HEBEI EARTHQUAKE REHABILITATION PROJECT

TECHNICAL ANNEX

Annex 1: Background and Damage Assessment...... 1

Annex 2: Project Description and Organization ...... 6

Annex 3: Housing and Public Building Practices, Model Designs and Construction Aspects ...... 11

Annex 4: Water C'onservancy Facilities...... 25

Annex 5: Regeneration of Agricultural Productivity...... 35 - 1 - ANNEX 1

ANNEX 1: BACKGROUND AND DAMAGE ASSESSMENT

Introduction

1. At 11.50 am on January 10, 1998 an earthquake of magnitude 6.2 on the Richter scale occurred on impoverished rural areas on Bashang plateau in Zhangjiakou Municipality. The epicenter was at the border of Zhangbei and Shangyi counties at latitude 41.100 andLlongitude 114.300. The earthquake was followed by a large number of aftershocks, with a total of 481 being recorded in the week following the earthquake. Fifteen of these measured over 4.0 on the Richter scale.

2. Zhangjiakou Municipality consists of the Bashang plateau in the north, bordering on , and the Baxia plain to the south. The total area of the municipality is 36,873 square kilometers (km2), containing a total population of 4.4 million. There are four counties located on the Bashang plateau-Zhangbei, Guyuan, Kangbao and Shangyi, with a total area of 12,480 km2. The altitude of the plateau varies from 1,300 to 1,600 meters (m) above sea level. The average annual temperature on the plateau is 2.6°C, and the lowest recorded temperature is -34.8°C. The average length of the frost-free period is 110 days, with a minimum of 70 days. Water resources are scarce, with most of the supply coming from wells. The area supports dryland agriculture, with limited areas of irrigation using groundwater. Soil conditions are poor and the economic base is weak, with per capita incomes of the order of Y 1,000 per year.

Damage Assessment

3. There were 49 recorded deaths and 11,439 injuries. The earthquake caused extensive damage over an area of some 2,600 km2 covering Zhangbei, Shangyi and Kangbao counties on the plateau, and Wanquan county adjacent to the plateau. The affected area includes 37 townships, 585 administrative villages and 1,824 other villages with a population of 471,000. Of the above, 15 townships, 281 administrative villages and 696 other villages, containing a total population of 241,000, were seriously affected. Within these areas, the intensity of the earthquake was VIII measured on the modified New China Intensity Scale (NCIS). A total of 136,000 rooms collapsed and a further 264,000 rooms were damaged, leaving a total population of 44,000 homeless.

4. As was the case in the North China earthquake of October 1989 (North China Earthquake Project-Credit 2091-CHA), which struck parts of Shaanxi and Hebei Provinces, village housing suffered the most damage in the earthquake. Housing and other village infrastructure in the affected areas are mainly local timber post and mud- brick and stone construction that is vulnerable to earthquake shocks. Basic building construction techniques have not always been incorporated into traditional building practices. Bonding of corners, securing of gable walls, provision of lintels over openings, -2- ANNEX 1 securing of roof structures, and the construction of the roof itself all too frequently have structural weaknesses built into them.

5. The earthquake has damaged the water supply to some 60,000 villagers in the Zhangbei, Shangyi and Kangbao counties. Some 130 wells need rehabilitation (20 percent repair, 80 percent replacement), and pipelines will be extended to some 90 percent of the households with the remaining villagers relying on standpost supply. The damage to water conservancy works in Zhangbei and Wanquan counties include irrigation canals, office buildings and dormitories. Also, some 730 motor wells for irrigation need repair/ reconstruction, mainly in Zhangbei and Shangyi counties. The Friendship Reservoir, constructed in 1958, is the largest water storage facility in northern Hebei Province. The dam, an earthfill structure of 40 m high and 290 m long, shows a total of 27 cracks on the dam crest and slope failures occurred on both the upstream and downstream dam faces. Additionally, the outlet tunnel and water intake tower were damaged as well as part of the spillway channel and office buildings/dormitories.

6. The total direct economic loss is estimated at Y 2.4 billion, of which rural housing losses are estimated at Y 1.7 billion. The loss of economic and social facilities in the severely affected townships and villages has wrecked the fragile local economy. Although there is some local industry and mining, the local economy is primarily agriculture-dependent. The villagers' barns, stables and grain storage facilities were destroyed or damaged, resulting in stored winter food and animal feed being lost or exposed to the elements. Schools, health centers, wells, irrigation channels, power lines, and other infrastructure were also destroyed or damaged.

7. China has recorded some of the most severe recorded earthquakes in the world. Since 1900, there have been 664 earthquakes with magnitude over 6 on the Richter Scale (RS), of which 107 registered over magnitude 7, or around 30 percent of world earthquakes of that size. The most severe recent earthquake occurred in 1976, registering 7.8 on the Richter Scale, killing over 400,000 people, and substantially destroying the city of in Hebei Province, about five hours' journey by rail east of Beijing. The death toll from earthquakes in China in the twentieth century exceeds 600,000, accounting for over 50 percent of the world total. Chinese earthquake specialists have predicted that, after a decade of relative calm, China is entering a period of high seismic activity that is likely to last for 12 to 15 years.

Relief Operations

8. Given that it was mid-winter and extremely cold in the earthquake area, the central and local governments' immediate concerns were to provide adequate temporary shelter, fuel, warm clothing and food supplies to the affected people. Governments, supported by the People's Liberation Army (PLA), responded immediately by putting up thermal tents, constructing temporary shelter, and treating, and evacuating where necessary, the injured. Emergency relief supplies and donations were also received from elsewhere in China and abroad. The relief effort was coordinated by a Leading Group -3 - ANNEX 1 established at the level of Zhangjiakou Municipality (ZM), supported by the affected counties' administration. Within one week of the earthquake a preliminary assessment of the damage was made-a feat, given the widespread area that was affected and the bitter cold of the plateau. The technical resources of the local governments were supplemented by a provincial task force drawn from the architectural, engineering and town planning institutes, and supported by experts from the Ministry of Communications (MOC) and State Seismological Bureau (SSB).

Damage Mitigation

9. The Tangshan earthquake resulted in a sweeping review of earthquake design codes in China and in 1978 a revised antiseismic Building Design Code for Industrial and Public Buildings was adopted. This code was followed by similar codes for water supply and drainage works, gas and power/heating plants, hydraulic structures, railways, highways and bridges. The effect of the new codes was evident in Zhangjiakou and in the recent Inner Mongolia and Yunnan earthquakes as most of the recently constructed buildings suffered only light damage or none at all. The Hebei Provincial Government (HPG) confirmed that (a) all project-financed reconstructed works (except housing) would be carried out to the latest antiseismic design codes; (b) designs would be to level VIII on the modified New China Intensity Scale; and (c) in line with current practice, the implementing agencies would be required to comply with the earthquake-expert team's recommendations on whether buildings, or parts of buildings, would be demolished for reconstruction or repaired.

10. The Zhangjiakou Municipal and county governments will require the adoption and use of cost-effective earthquake-resistant design and construction methods for housing and other village infrastructure. Planning and design work will take place through March, alfter which the ground conditions would be suitable for starting reconstruction during the six months' construction window (April to September).

11. China has a standardized procedure for classifying damage caused by earthquakes. A team of experts is assembled by MOC and sent to investigate and classify the damage.

12. The expert team categorizes structures as follows, taking into account the structure's age, the type of structure, its suitability for repair, its depreciated value and other factors such as its strategic importance (see Figure Al.1).

Level 1 No damage; Level 2 Light damage-repairable; Level 3 Medium damage-repairable depending on age and type of structure; Level 4 Severe damage-irreparable, structure to be demolished; and Level 5 Collapsed structure. -4- ANNEX 1

TABLE A1.1: DAMAGE ASSESSMENT DATA

Item Zhangbei Shangyi Wanquan Kangbao Total

Total Population: 184,389 124,000 16,000 36,786 361,175 - lightly injured 9,252 1,840 2 - 11,094 - heavily injured 339 6 - - 345 - deaths 49 - - - 49

Housing - number of rooms destroyed 135,666 32,855 2,475 4,151 175,147 - number of rooms damaged 92,598 91,157 12,411 26,574 222,740 - total damage in million Yuan 1,209.4 619.0 94.2 59.9 1,982.5

Hospitals - m2 ofroomsdamaged 10,145 5,325 1,855 4,010 21,335 - medical appliance damaged 66 15 - 15 96 - total damage in million Yuan 41.4 22.2 8.8 12.0 84.3

Education facilities - ni2 of schools damaged 131,184 77,822 32,776 2,000 243,782 - furniture damaged 6,961 15,836 2,207 - 25,004 - books lost 66,587 212,970 21,624 - 301,181 - total damage in million Yuan 63.5 48.9 15.2 2.4 130.0

Water Conservancy facilities 2 - m office/dormitory damaged 3,924 286 - 1,450 5,660 - no. of wells damaged 236 506 6 113 861 - meters of irrigation canal damaged 52,485 119,290 8,400 82,000 262,175 - no. of reservoir damaged 7 4 - 1 12 - total damage inmillion Yuan 9.8 15.5 8.0 5.7 39.0

Grain Depots - m2 of depot space 48,389 15,706 - 8,571 72,626 - total damage in million Yuan 26.4 6.3 - 3.0 35.7

Power supply in million Yuan 9.3 1.7 - - 11.0 Road infrastructure in million Yuan 7.1 2.4 - - 9.5 Telecommunications damage in million Yuan 7.8 3.8 - - 11.6 Animal husbandry in million Yuan 60.9 1.9 - - 62.8 Agriculture damage in million Yuan - 1.4 - - 1.4 Municipal infrastructure damage million Yuan 3.1 - - - 3.1

Total Damage - in million Yuan 1,438.7 723.1 126.2 83.0 2,370.0 - in % of total 61 30 5 4 100 - 5 - ANNEX 1

FIGURE A 1.1: LOCATIONAND EXTENT OF DAMAGE

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,*RI2,ENT@it!!AA/a1\/DSFIIi 1988 t 5 ,E, -6- ANNEX2

ANNEX 2: PROJECT DESCRIPTION AND ORGANIZATION

Project Scope

1. The project would support emergency reconstruction, repair and rehabilitation programs to be carried out in HP from about March 1998 through about December 2000. The components and their investment costs, including engineering and management costs, are in

* Housing-$12.6 million: reconstruction and/or repair of about 15-20,000 houses, of which 50 percent require substantial repairs before reoccupation; * Health Care-$1.6 million: (a) reconstruction and/or repair of about 26 healthcare facilities; and (b) purchase of equipment; * Grain Storage-$2.8 million: reconstruction of, and/or repairs to, about 25,600m2 of grain storage facilities; * Water Conservancy-$5.4 million: (a) reconstruction of, and/or repairs to, drinking water facilities; (b) reconstruction of, and/or repairs to, water conservancy facilities, e.g., wells, buildings, canals, bridges, aqueducts, and the drilling of about 861 new wells; and (c) repairs to the dam and outlet structures of the Friendship reservoir; * Education-$10.4 million: (a) reconstruction of some 600 schools; and (b) purchase of school equipment; * Irrigation-$7.7 million: (a) installation of some 430 large dug wells and 370 deep tube wells; and (b) installation of some 800 small (15 ha each) sprinkler irrigation systems; and * Institutional Development-$0.1 million: technical assistance, training and support to Provincial, Municipal, County and Township level agencies, particularly for building standard development, project management coordination, and monitoring.

Project Organization

2. The Hebei Provincial Government (HPG) has established a Leading Group chaired by the Deputy Party Secretary, whose members include directors from the Planning Commission, the Finance Bureau and the Construction Commission. The Group gives policy guidance on all matters relating to the earthquake emergency relief and reconstruction effort, and will coordinate agency investments in the affected areas.

3. The Provincial Government's existing Provincial Project Management Office (PMO), which is responsible for all World Bank Group-financed projects in the Province, would also be responsible for this emergency project. The PMO is chaired by the Vice Director of the Hebei Provincial Finance Bureau (HFB). The functions of the PMO are the coordination and monitoring of project preparation and implementation, collection -7- ANNEX2 and analysis of project expenditures, and consolidation of information for the purposes of reporting progress to HPG, and to the Bank Group. It will perform the same functions for this project. The PMO also has the responsibility of managing the Special Account of this IDA credit. The PMO has the responsibility to review the statements of expenditure (SOEs) submitted by the Zhangjiakou Leading Group Project Office and submit the withdrawal application to the IDA for replenishment.

4. The Zhangjiakou Municipal Government (ZMG) has established a Municipal Leading Group (MLG) chaired by the Vice Mayor. The members of the MLG include directors or vice directors of Finance, Planning, Construction, Water Conservation, Health, Education, Earthquake, Grain, and Audit Bureaus. The main functions of the MLG are to coordinate the different government agencies involved, to approve major policies related to the earthquake reconstruction activities, and to make sure the counterpart fund for the project is available and future repayment is on time.

5. ZMG has established a Municipal Leading Group Project Office (MPO), to be headed by an vice director of the Zhangjiakou Finance Bureau (ZFB), staff of all concerned government agencies are the members of the MPO. The project area includes 4 counties, 32 townships and 217 villages. The 4 counties and 32 townships will set up project offices to monitor the project, and 217 village representatives will manage the construction. The organization structure chart of this project is indicated in Figure A2. 1.

6. Under the MPO, there are four divisions, credit management, project management, materials and procurement, and technical advice. The staff of credit management division are mainly from the municipal finance division, which will be responsible for onlending the credit, withdrawal application, use of credit, delivery of funds, and audit. The project management division is based on the municipal planning bureau with the main functions of planning, design, and contract approval. Key persons of materials/procurement and technical advice divisions are from the municipal construction division, which will look after procurement, construction, quality supervision and project completion review. The MPO will provide training and has the authority to review the works in the county and township levels. The MPO has the authority to release the responsibilities to a county or township if a lower-level office has the ability and personnel to take over the works, and has the authority to take back the works to a higher level if an office does not follow the government regulation and the World Bank Group procurement and disbursement policies.

Project Management

7. Since the project management involves so many levels, a proper contract monitoring system has been set up that provides good monitoring of project progress. Contracts incurred at a lower level should be reviewed and agreed by a higher level. A system of responsibility and signature authorization has been established at each level (see Table A2. 1). Disbursement staff will record the dates SOEs are received and dispatched to trace financial performance. The time for reviewing the contracts and -8 - ANNEX2 preparing the SOE documents should be very short; a proper working time at each level should be established. The contract monitoring system and the disbursement system should be set up and be agreed at each level before the disbursement begins.

8. Quarterly progress reports would be submitted to the Bank Group by HPG, or its designee, in a format acceptable to HPG and the Bank Group. The project quarterly reports, together with contract awards, disbursement documents, and Bank Group supervision missions would form the basis for routine monitoring of physical and financial progress. The performance of the project will be measured against its objectives by the MMPO and included in the Quarterly Progress Reports for IDA review. Performance monitoring indicators have been defined for each project (sub)component.

9. The provincial, municipal, county and township PMOs, through their well- established finance bureaus/units, would maintain separate accounts and records for the project and for all SOE-related expenditures. This arrangement provides clear allocation of financial authority, responsibility and accountability with well-defined systems and procedures. The financial documentation would be subject to audit by the Foreign Investment Audit Bureau of the China National Audit Office (CNAO), established in 1983 under the name of State Audit Administration. The actual auditing work would be conducted by the Hebei Provincial Audit Department under CNAO's supervision. -9- ANNEX2

FIGURE A2.1: ORGANIZATION STRUCTURE OF ZHANGJIAKOU EARTHQUAKE RECONSTRUCTION PROJECT

Hebei Earthquake Reconstruction Leading Group l

Hebei Project Management Office

I Zhangjiakou Earthquake Reconstruction Leading Group

.______I Credit ManagementDivision LeadingGroup Project Office Project Management Division ____ Materials & Procurement Division Technical Advice Division

' 41 1 Shangyi County Wanquan County Project Office Project Office Project Office Project Office

5 Townships 14 Townships 3 Townships_ 10 Townships

7 Villages 91 Villages 43 Villages 26 Villages -10- ANNEX2

TABLE A2.1: RESPONSIBILITIES WITHIN THE FOUR PROJECT MANAGEMENT LEVELS

Item MunicipalProject Office CountyProject Offices TownshipProject Offices VillageRepresentatives (MPO)

AgenciesInvolved Membersof Finance, CountyLeaders, and TownshipLeaders and VillageLeader and one Planning,Construction, membersof Finance, staff staff frommunicipality Water Conservation, Planning,Construction, and each county Health,Education, Earth- Water Conservation, quake, Grain,Audit Health,Education, Earth- Bureaus quake, Grain,Audit Bureaus

Main Tasks Contact withIDA, credit Prepareor approveplan, Check and summarythe Contact with local onlending,repayment, policy,design, procure- needs, prepareand submit people,count and check review and approve plan, ment,file management, plan, policy, design,pro- the needsand submit, policy, design,procure- summarySOE & submit, curement,summary construction,supervision ment, monitory,quality qualitycontrol, supervi- invoiceand submit, control, arrangetraining, sion,arrange counterpart supervision,report to the disburse,progress report funds,report to MPO county to IDA & HPMO

Procurement Reviewand approvepro- Arrangeor reviewpro- Arrangeprocurement, Receivematerials, curementin lower level, curement,prepare civil evaluate,arrange deliver, construction approvefirst set of pro- workand materialsshop- assistantcontract curementdocuments, pingdocuments, evalu- arrange training,monitor ate, arrangedeliver and procurementin county, contract and checkprocurement in township,arrange pro- curementif needed

Disbursement Spot check procurement Reviewprocurement and Submitinvoice and and invoice,summary summarySOEs and quotations SOEsand submitwith- submit drawalapplication

Implementation Approveplan, send staff Summarizeneeds and Summarizeneeds and Submitneeds and plan, Plan and Quality to work site, random plans,supervision, plans,onsite supervision onsite supervision Control checking,completion frequentlychecking, review -11- ANNEX3

ANNEX 3: HOUSING AND PUBLIC BUILDING PRACTICES, MODEL DESIGNS AND CONSTRUCTION ASPECTS

Existing Building Practices

1. All houses and schools are similar in their essentials. They are single-story, one room deep and two or more long. Dwelling rooms vary from 12 to 1l5square meters (mi) in area. The shape on plan is rectangular, with a south-facing elevation containing large timber-framed windows (in order to capture solar gain) and an entirely blank north elevation. Most walls are mud-brick or semicoursed random-rubble stonework, often without mortar, and there are no foundations. Internal walls are rendered. Some houses have clay brick leaves externally, untied and unbonded. The roofs are pitched at 30 degrees, with gables. Pine pole rafters (purlins) are nailed to larger poles spanning between cross-walls and gable walls. Reed woven mats are wired to the purlins, and they support a layer of mud into which interlocking clay tiles are bedded. The roof timbers (corbels) are not tied to the walls, but in most cases rest within stepped projecting courses of masonry. Hospitals and grain stores are larger, more complex and diverse in design.

Building Failures Observed

2. Separation of Wall Leaves. Commonly, the outer leaf of a wall had peeled away from the inner leaf and usually collapsed, leaving the inner leaf statnding in most cases. The two leaves were of different materials with no bonding or ties laterally. The outer leaf functioned as a separate structural element and had too large a height-to-width ratio and length-to-height ratio to be stable in earthquake conditions. In some cases, the inner leaf may have collapsed progressively as a result of the loss of the outer leaf. Lateral bonding is vitally important to establish the structural integrity of the wall. This will require the materials of both leaves to have compatible dimensions and similar structural characteristics. This can be most readily achieved if they are the same material, sound mortar is used and joints well filled.

3. Separation of Adjacent Walls. Gable walls, side walls, and internal cross-walls had often separated at the corners, with one or both leaning or collapsed. One could see in most cases that there was no bonding, but even where bonded, the force of the earthquake had sometimes separated the walls. It appeared that rafters were built into corbels at eaves level, but not actually fixed to the wall and therefore incapable of restraining it. mid on -cro5swallt rst cLa i lcs 2reedt raf e beddedon mud [I purlns brfck leaf nottied to stone ormu.d

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"GCUTAWAY"

TK,ADITIONAL CON6~TKUQTIOH *Otto5cL -13- ANNEX3

4. There was no evidence that movement of the roof had pushed over walls, but rather that movement of the wall had led the rafters to collapse progressively. It is important that the long front and rear walls are fully stabilized by the cross-walls and gable walls, since otherwise their length-to-height ratio will render them unstable. Probably bonding, though necessary, is not sufficient. The basic aim should be to establish structural continuity, so that forces are shared by all walls together while the roof has a similar role to play.

5. Careful bonding is vital, but also steel mesh or steel bars bent at 90 degrees, should be inserted every five courses in the horizontal joints, which should be made deeper for the purpose. Furthermore, the cross-walls should be strong enough to perform the task of stabilizing the front and rear walls, which requires minimal openings. Lastly, but most importantly, a structurally continuous ring beam should run around the entire building at a level between the eaves and the window heads. Typically this is reinforced concrete or timber. It must be adequate to resist force from any direction, and should be rigid at the corners. This will bind the walls together and prevent distortion. Turning now to the roof, the rafters could be bolted to the ring beam, or strapped into the brickwork, or cross-nailed to a timber wallplate, which should in turn be bolted to the ring beam. This would certainly establish continuity laterally. But cross-bracing, perhaps by means of diagonal members between purlins, might be advisable.

6. Collapse of Piers and Beams on Front Elevation. In a few cases, the front elevation had collapsed. There are exceptionally big windows to all rooms, but none at all on the north-facing facades. The greenhouse effect heats up the walls from the inside, which then radiate during the night. This creates a very soft wall on the south side and a very hard one on the north. Conventional wisdom says that this extreme structural asymmetry would cause destructive torsion effects during an earthquake. Surprisingly, we saw relatively little clear evidence of this, but further study of this puzzling point would be worthwhile. The narrow piers between windows had sometimes fallen forward and were not tied effectively to the cross-walls behind them. The beams above, normally precast concrete, were spanning only one bay. The rafters collapsed progressively, although in a few cases the purlins had collapsed. Always they were seated on gable and cross-walls, which usually remained standing. This probably saved a lot of people from injury or worse.

7. The piers were too narrow. In the case of the Hebei earthquake, that may not be the main problem. The root cause of this failure was probably the discontinuity of the beam. Each beam was resting on half a pier width, which might be as little as 300 mm. This is inadequate. As the slender piers vibrated laterally, they caused the beams to fall, but if the beam had been structurally continuous, this would not have occurred. Furthermore, the piers were not tied to the cross-walls behind them, and so they were free to move. -14- ANNEX3

FIGURE A3.2: FAILURE MODES

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8. So far as possible, the piers should be made thicker, or otherwise strengthened, for example, by vertical reinforcement. The beam should be structurally continuous. The piers should be firmly tied to the gable, by bonding and reinforcement consisting of steel mesh or bars.

9. Foundations. Traditionally foundations were not provided although there was little evidence of failure arising from this. Nonetheless, it is recommended that stone-strip foundations (or, still better, reinforced concrete ones) be provided. Frost in Hebei can reach 2 m deep, but there was no clear evidence of frost heave and, reportedly, it does not occur. This suggests that the footings need not be especially deep, although this must always be subject to ground being suitable at the bottom of the trench. A depth of 700 mm may be generally acceptable. Even so, mud brick (or even poor clay brick) could be damaged by groundwater or frost, and should not be used below the damp-proof course.

10. Complex Plan Forms. Complex plan forms-for example, E, L, X or similar layouts-normally perform badly in earthquakes, as do long, thin rectangles. While the mission saw little evidence of damage due to the L-shaped plan of some schools and the hospital, we would still recommend that such forms be avoided.

11. Proximity of Pit Latrines and Domestic Wells. It was noticed that drinking water wells are located close to pit latrines. Particularly after an earthquake, this can cause the water supply to be infiltrated by fecal matter, causing the spread of disease.

Standard Dwelling Designs

12. The Zhangjiakou authorities had prepared model designs for a two-room house and a three-room house, including specification notes and outline quantities and costs. On the basis of the observed building failures and previous studies, the following design recommendations were agreed upon.

13. The Two-Room House. The design is fundamentally sound but consideration should be given to the following points: Walls. It is proposed that all walls should be clay brickwork, with external walls three bricks wide and internal walls two bricks wide. One gable is two bricks wide, since a provision is made for a room to be added later. Recommended as follows:

* A detail of the method of bonding should be prepared, since not all bonds are of equal strength. * The habit of building one wall completely before building the next one should be abandoned. It is easier to achieve good bonding if all walls rise simultaneously, at least at the corners. * More information should be given to builders on mortar mixes, and they should be told to reject all bags of cement affected by moisture. All joints should be properly filled. -16- ANNEX3

FIGURE A3.3: WALLS

YpeisteeL mesk (wired toseaieev) LA-T5 RA L evefru 5 co rw5e5 -jNDINC-1

/;37C~~-T l4lCT lAFALLY CONTINV40l.5 RINC(3EAm1- /ith ri5id coners,

Oondrtion 1; Not more tc 40 of distctnce betweevi lateraw vI5ls. conr&tion Z. one me'tre& POsS; b Ie, I- these two Conitio4xs are nAotMet, tUer\ orisider vertjcaU ainjorc6Ment G: per s .ANTI-EAKTHq1AAKE M-EA4AAPR-S-WALL5 E5sLJ4C-Ecrl0 F(ARJ Hf-K uTM DD'y2 Y') -17- ANNEX3

* Both gables should be three bricks deep, since the slenderness ratio is otherwise too high * All corners should be reinforced in the manner described in the previous section, including junctions with internal walls. 14. The piers should be wider and the openings narrower. Reversing the position of front door and adjoining window would add strength to the end pier, which is particularly narrow. The spandrel brickwork below this window should be restrained at the end next to the door. Finally, if the piers cannot be adequately thickened, then consideration may be given to vertical reinforcement, which could be tied to the horizontal reinforcement previously mentioned.

15. Ring BeaEn. A ring beam is proposed, with a continuous reinforced concrete beam on the south elevation and reinforced brickwork elsewhere, but reinforcing bars are overlapped at corners by 300 mm. The overlap is insufficient and should be a minimum of 600 mm or more. Also parallel bars should be wired together with stirrups. Otherwise, the proposal is probably adequate, although a reinforced concrete beam all the way round would be even better. This would be more costly, of course. Recommended as follows:

* Proper guidance should be given on quality and quantities of constituent components, as well as thoroughness of mixing and careful curing. If cast in situ, the concrete form work should be of adequate quality and not distort, and nor should it be prematurely struck; * It is important to create continuity between bars. Stirrups should connect bars at frequent intervals.

16. Roof. The roof design follows the traditional principles. Improvements are recommended as follows:

* Purlins and joists should be secured to the walls either by steel straps or by cross- nailing to a wallplate bolted to the Ring Beam. * The jointing of timbers should be described in more detail, as bad jointing can weaken the overall structural integrity. Judging from the site inspection, it is not done well at the moment. * Diagonal bracing should perhaps be included to ensure that no distortion can occur. * It may be advisable to put a timber spreader plate under the purlins where they sit on the gable or cross-walls, in order to reduce the pressure at that point.

17. Foundations. The foundations proposed are in coursed stone bedded in mortar to a depth of 1.3 m and with a width at the base of 700 mm. This does seem adequate, and some reduction in depth may be acceptable. Recommendations: -18 - ANNEX3

FIGUREA3.4: RoOF

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j-~~ MEAKE3RKOOFc5: £ C 11JECT CS TC AFFOKIDAL17Yj T--AI --f'H' \ -19- ANNEX3

* Particular attention should be paid to the ground quality at the bottom of the trench, and if an expert inspector believes it to be too soft, then remedial action should be taken. It is an error to build on bad ground for economy reasons. * Internal cross-walls should have similar foundations.

18. The Three-Room House: Additional Points. The design for this house is similar to that for the two-room house, and the same comments apply. Again, the design is fundamentally sound but one internal cross-wall contains a window as well as a door. The masonry is mud brick, and the wall is stabilized by timber columns connecting to the purlins. Recommendations:

* The internal walls should be double-leafed brickwork, and the window should be eliminated. * The previously mentioned design features should be incorporated here also, which is to say: wall junctions should be bonded and reinforced, and there should foundations similar to those elsewhere.

19. Additional House Designs. Another six house designs were under preparation, all with three bays and similar in dimensions to the previously mentioned three-room house. The recommendations made above applied here too, but the following recommendations can be added:

- The design with the re-entrant corner should be changed so that it is rectangular on plan, since the proposed form is vulnerable. 3 The design with an open porch has a corner column freestanding. This should be changed so that the corner of the building is solid masonry. 3 The variety of materials from which walls are composed creates doubt about their performance and the lack of lateral bonding or ties between leaves should be questioned. * The flat roof design has the advantage of lightness, but may be vulnerable to high winds and to snow load as well as condensation via cold bridges. Checks should be made. Its appearance is a departure from tradition and some people may find it aesthetically objectionable.

20. Most of these designs are relatively expensive, and this arises in part from needless complexity, which is not offering value for money. Overall, however, they are sound in earthquake engineering terms.

Review of Designs for Public Building Types

21. Schools. Three designs (for primary, middle and secondary school classrooms) were prepared with alternative pitched and flat roofs. Generally they resembled the dwelling designs, and appeared satisfactory, with the following recommendations: * As with the dwellings, the piers on the south elevation should be wider and the windows smaller if possible, in order to reduce the torsion caused by asymmetry. If -20 - ANNEX3

this is not acceptable, due to solar heat requirements, then the piers should be strengthened, perhaps by vertical reinforcement and buttresses. * Ring beams are drawn at 240 mm x 120 mm deep. The depth is insufficient and the design should be checked. * The front and rear walls are in some cases very long and likely to flex dangerously if not restrained by internal buttresses and a strong fixing to the roof trusses. * The roof needs diagonal bracing. * The flat roof option has the advantage of lightness but will be more vulnerable to suction in windstorms and to snow loads. . If a flat roof is used, then it is recommended to build it with a minimal gradient to allow for rainwater runoff.

22. Hospitals. Design preparations for the hospitals were less advanced. Only sketches were prepared for a large and small hospital and for a clinic or ambulatory but no construction drawings were available. It was noted that complex plan forms, namely an H and an L shape, are being considered. However, such forms are particularly vulnerable during earthquakes. Therefore, it is recommended to avoid complex plan forms, and desegregated into separate rectangular blocks. If this is not feasible, then movement joints should be provided at the interface of component rectangles.

23. Grain Stores. The standard grain store is a reinforced concrete frame, with brick infill panels and a steel-trussed roof. It measures some 60 m by 15 m by 6 m high, and is a relatively complex structure. The following recommendations have been made: * The form is long enough to merit at least one movement joint. . The eaves detail incorporates a large overhang of excessive depth and weight. Lightweight eaves should be provided instead, since such a heavy feature, eccentric to the columns, presents a risk. * The upper ring beam, at eaves level, is not deep enough.

Review of Building Materials

24. The roofs are too massive to be safe, and in principle they should be lighter. It would require lightweight insulation as a substitute for mud; and also sawed and stress- graded timber for purlins and joists. Without the mud, tiles would have to be pegged to battens, or some type of roof sheeting used. It appeared that this would be prohibitively expensive.

25. The need for economy compelled the use of mud brick in places. This is too brittle a material and far from suitable for use in earthquake areas. The scope for concrete block as an affordable but superior alternative is being considered. The Zhangjiakou Light Concrete Enterprise makes concrete blocks utilizing volcanic rock, which is quarried in the general earthquake area. They use small quasi-mobile plant, and it would be possible to establish local production at several places in the earthquake zone. The material test certificate shows that it has adequate structural and thermal qualities, and -21- ANNEX3 reportedly slightly cheaper than mud brick. It will allow sounder building and will also enhance the livelihood of local people in the earthquake area.

Construction Costs and Review of Possible Economy Measures

26. Two Room House. The total labor value is Y 2,170 and the total material value is Y 10,080. The labor element is divided into self-help, valued at two thirds or Y 1,450 and paid skilled labor, valued at one third or Y 725. The material element is divided into new material (Y 7,970) and recycled material (Y 2,120). The new material will be paid for, but the recycled material will be prepared at no charge. The self-help labor will be done at no charge, but the skilled labor may be either paid cash or by labor onsite or by recycled material. There are two scenarios: only the new material cost is repaid or the skilled labor plus materials.

27. Scope for 'Economy Measures. While the total value of Y 12,253 and the cost rate of Y 385 per m do appear reasonable and realistic, there are nonetheless fears that in so poverty-stricken an area, they may not be generally affordable. Consideration was given to economy measures. Below is scheduled the possible items of saving. 1. Substitute mud brick or concrete block in all walls. Y 450 2. Reduce foundation depth from 1.3 m to 700 mm. 592 3. Omit ground concrete surface next to foundations. 52 4. Omit ceiling 405 5. Omit internal wall plastering 175 6. Omit concrete skirting. 30 7. Omit whitewashing of internal walls. 36 Total Saving: Y 1,740

28. The omitted items could be easily completed later at the expense of the householder. The other items are deemed essential regardless of the earthquake resistance issue. The use of mud brick walls is feasible, although it is important that the quality of work is good and the techniques sound. Few houses currently have any foundations and yet there was little evidence that clearly indicated failure for this reason. Therefore, one would contemplate some economy on the foundations. There is no scope for economizing on the ring beam.

29. Alternative Scenarios. Below is illustrated several options regarding the loan principal for the two-room house mentioned above. It is suggested that the provincial government consider whether some such economies would allow the inevitably scarce resources to secure more widespread good. Obviously, the motive concerns resource allocation and not architectural or technical questions. Full design plus skilled labor Y 8,690 Full design without skilled labor 7,970 Reduced design in clay brick plus skilled labor 7,400 -22- ANNEX3

Reduced design in clay brick without skilled labor 6,680 Reduced design in mud brick/concrete block plus skilled labor 6,950 Reduced design in mud brick/concrete block without skilled labor 6,230

30. It is noted that the above figures do not include the cost of the recommended design improvements above. It is estimated that these costs would be between Y 200 and Y 400. Such extra expense is justified in the interests of earthquake resistance while the amenity measures can be feasibly accomplished at a later time.

31. Public Buildings. In the schools sector, the total program comprises 2,707 rooms in 127 schools, at a total cost of Y 28.2 million. The cost rate is Y 520 per m2 . In the health sector, there will be 26 projects at a total cost of Y 8.0 million. The cost rate is Y 527 per m2 . In the grain sector, there will be 18 projects at a total cost of Y 20.6 million. The cost rate is Y 1,270 per m2.

32. The cost rate for schools and hospitals is reasonable. The far higher cost rate of the grain store design is due to the more sophisticated construction, as well as much greater span and height. However, there may be scope for refinement and simplification of the design, leading to economies.

Other Factors

33. Geotechnical and Site Conditions. While general geological data are available, there appears to have been no assessment of localized conditions, or the impact they would have on construction technique or choice of site. It can be dangerous to build close to fault lines or on sloping ground, unless it is terraced and stabilized. Similarly, building on outwash fans or alluvial soil in narrow valleys imposes very important conditions on the design and should be avoided if possible.

34. Availability of Construction Materials. The total quantities of materials required for all the reconstruction was estimated as well as the total production capacity in the area. For example, the project will require 134 million bricks, and local production capacity is said to be 1.2 billion. As for tiles, 6.9 million will be needed against a capacity of 10 million. Cement capacity is 1.5 million tons, and the need here is for 27,000. Only in the case of timber will imports (Heilongjiang) be needed.

35. Manpower. The total manpower requirements has been calculated in person-days based on standard norms, and assumed that the unskilled labor-about two thirds-will be provided by self-help, while the remainder, that is the skilled element comprising two thirds, will be provided by labor gangs. It is estimated that 418 teams of 18 workers each -a total of 7,524 workers for the target time of 150 days-will be required. It was reported that the construction sector labor force in the city region is over 100,000 persons.

36. Skill Dissemination and Quality Control. The implementing agencies responsible for construction management have properly equipped materials testing laboratory available. They will appoint between one and three Quality Control Inspectors -23 - ANNEX3 to each village, and after a training course, they will perform tests and random inspections on site. They will be independent in status and report their findings to the Project Office.

37. The matter of knowledge dissemination is of fundamental importance for the successful implementation of the project. The local project leadership understands this and have proposed an extensive training program of a formal type, and also a type of onsite organization that would facilitate skill transfer between craftsmen and local farmers engaged in construction. It is suggested that booklets and posters, as well as a video of a demonstration project and large-scale models, would facilitate understanding of technical points. The drawings so far produced have two defects in this respect: they are too technical to be understood by ordinary people and also they lack detail of the precise mode and sequence of work. In short, they presuppose a level of prior training and knowledge thaltmany do not possess. Perspective drawings at a level of detail should be prepared, and strip cartoons could be used to explain the sequence of operations. Posters and booklets should also explain in simple terms the underlying reasons for things, and not only the things themselves. The funds for assistance by local consultants has been included in the credit to help the local authorities to produce the materials as well as to assist in the dissemination effort.

38. Community Participation. More attention needs to be given to community involvement in the design and implementation of the reconstruction effort, particularly the housing reconstruction. A lack of grassroots commitment will doom the project to failure, and it is vital that the professionals and government officers take the feelings of the local villagers fully into account, particularly as regards the financial and labor arrangements. Project staff should meet the villagers soon in order to explain fully all bottomline matters and check out their views so as to incorporate them into the project before it starts. Technical assistance by local consultants for this purpose has been incorporated in the project design.

Technical Assistance Component

39. The general ability and expertise of technicians and administrators working on the project is relatively high, but they will benefit from advice prior to and during project execution in several fields. Their basic knowledge, leaming capacity, organizing ability and energy is such, that a major program will not be needed. The following areas for assistance have been identified:

* Geotechnical Assessment. The aim is to transmit knowledge and understanding of the significance of microzoning and the need to link this to choice of both sites and techniques of construction; . Building Design and Quality Control. The aim is to reinforce and deepen knowledge of the relevant research, design principles, and detailed design and construction techniques, and also to check current design and execution, and advise in a concrete, practical and detailed way on feasible improvement. Additionally, advice on all aspects of Quality Control should be given; -24 - ANNEX3

Dissemination Techniques and Community Participation. The aim is to advise on the best techniques for communicating relevant knowledge to (and obtaining and reacting to feedback from) construction workers, quality control inspectors , the local community and others. Assistance with the preparation of communication material should be provided; and * Project Organization and Management. The aim is to examine and suggest feasible improvements to technical organization both overall and in specific component parts, and likewise to suggest improvements to the management of construction, procurement, supply chain operation, liaison, financial planning and control and other relevant matters, including the transfer of general principles as well as project-specific issues.

40. The manpower input has been estimated at 10 person-months of local consultants and will occur in three stages: at the inception, early stages of execution, and the conclusion of the first construction season. The first report should be submitted in April and the final report in October. The following expertise has been identified:

* Geotechnics one person, one month 1 person-month * Building three persons, seven weeks 5 person-months 3 Community one person, one month 1 person-month * Management two persons, seven weeks 2 person-months -25 - ANNEX4

ANNEX 4: WATER CONSERVANCY FACILITIES

Drinking Water Reinstatement

1. This component of the project is designed to reinstate potable water supplies to villages in three counties (Zhangbei, Shangyi, Kangbao). The proposed works include 130 wells repaired or replaced (approximately 20 percent repaired, 80 percent replaced); pumps; pipelines; storage tanks; house connections; and standpipes.

2. The total population to be served by this component of the project is 66,000, made up of 20,000 in Zhangbei, 30,000 in Shangyi and 16,000 in Kangbao. Of this total, about 90 percent will have household connections and the remainder will rely on standpipe supplies. The proportion of those having household connections will be considerably higher than existed prior to the earthquake.

3. The proposed expenditure on this component is as follows (in Y):

County Loan funds Domestic Funds Total

Zhangbei 1,772,000 954,000 2,726,000 Shangyi 3,061,000 1,648,000 4,709,000 Kangbao 1,556,000 838,000 2,394,000

Total 6,389,000 3,440,000 9,829,000

4. The details of the works to be undertaken are as follows: * Zhangbei County

Description Location Cost (Y)

2 no. 190m deep wells, pump & pipework Da Jing He district 584,000 1 no. 80m deep well & pipework Han Tou Ying district 170,000 3 no. 300m deep wells & pipework Da He district 465,000 2 no. 220m deep wells & pipework Hai Liu Tu district 444,000 2 no. 210m deep wells & pipework Huang Shi Ya district 496,000 3 no. 250m deep wells & pipework Tai Lu Gou district 567,000

Total 2,726,000 -26 - ANNEX4

The breakdown of the Zhangbei County expenditure by items is as follows:

Well drilling 600,000 Well lining 600,000 Pump stations 225,000 Electrical works 300,000 Pipelines 1,001,000 Total Y 2,726,000 Shangyi County

Location Description Total Cost (Y)

Keng Leng district Drilled well, pump and pipelines 379,000 Hou Shi Zhuang Jing district Drilled well, pump and pipelines 320,000 Tao Li Xiang district Drilled well, pump and pipelines 340,000 Da Yeng Pan district Drilled well, pump and pipelines 219,000 Da Qing Guo town Drilled well, pump and pipelines 136,000 Da Su Ji district Drilled well, pump and pipelines 320,000 Hong Tu Liang town Drilled well, pump and pipelines 360,000 Jia Shi He district Drilled well, pump and pipelines 94,000 Xi Suan Gou town Drilled well, pump and pipelines 320,000 Xia Ma Juan district Drilled well, pump and pipelines 150,000 Qi Jia district Drilled well, pump and pipelines 130,000 Ha La Guo district Drilled well, pump and pipelines 200,000 Nan Hao Jian town Drilled well, pump and pipelines 130,000 Ba Dao Gou town Drilled well, pump and pipelines 760,000 Shangyi city Laying cast iron pipeline 851,000

Total 4,709,000

The breakdown of the Shangyi County expenditure by items is as follows:

Well drilling 3,069,000 Well lining 300,000 Pump stations 420,000 Electrical works 320,000 Pipelines 600,000 Total Y 4,709,000 -27 - ANNEX4

Kangbao County

Location Description Total Cost (Y) Beneficiaries

Tu Cheng Zi FPipelines& House Connections 494,000 999 households in 5 villages Er Hao Bo Pipelines & House Connections 600,000 1104 households in 6 villages Ha Bi Ga Pipelines & House Connections 400,000 392 households in 4 villages Deng You Fang Pipelines & House Connections 900,000 1405 households in 9 villages

Total 2,394,000 3,900 households in 24 villages

The breakdown of the Kangbao County expenditure by items is as follows:

Well drilling 1,636,000 Well lining 192,000 Pump stations 146,000 Electrical works 120,000 Pipelines 300,000 Total Y 2,394,000

5. The wells are either drilled or dug by hand, depending on the local hydrogeological conditions and other factors. Drilled wells are typically 400-500 mm in diameter and 200 m or more in depth. They are lined with a concrete sleeve. Hand-dug wells are typically 1.2 m diameter at the surface, and up to 3 or 4 m diameter at their base. The depth of the hand-dug wells is usually 15-20 m, and they are normally lined with stone.

6. Each well is equipped with a pump, mostly driven by an electric motor although a few in remote areas are driven by a diesel engine. The pump and wellhead are enclosed in a small brick building. Storage is provided by a concrete tank. The pipeline carrying the water from the well to the village is buried, and the materials used depend on the size of the pipeline and whether it is under pressure or under gravity flow. Small-diameter pipelines (50-100 mm) are made of plastic (probably PVC), medium-diameter pipelines (150-250 mm) are earthenware, and large diameter pipelines (> 300 mm) are made of concrete. There is normally further storage provided within the village and small- diameter plastic pipe is used to connect the supply to each household. No treatment is to be provided as the quality of the well water is generally very good, and in any event the population in this region follows the traditional practice of boiling water before drinking.

Water Conservancy Facilities

7. This component of the project is designed to repair or rebuild water conservancy facilities in two counties (Zhangbei, Wanquan). The works to be repaired or rebuilt are principally canals and offices/dormitories owned by the water conservancy authority, and include expenditures for the repair of collapsed canal lining, repairs to inlet and outlet -28 - ANNEX4 structures, repairs to gates, and repairs to bridges crossing the canals. Details of the works to be undertaken are as follows:

ZHANGBEI COUNTY

Location Description Total Cost(Y)

Hai Liu Tu 10channels 300,000 2 bridges 50,000 1 water drop 15,000 5,100 meters of canal lining 863,500

Da Ying Tai 11 channels 92,300 3 aqueducts 150,000 3 bridges 60,000

Total 1,530,800

WANQUANCOUNTY

Location Description Total Cost (Y)

Yang He River I sedimentdischarge gate 28,600 No. 1 Canal 2 channels 137,500 5 aqueducts 737,500 1 dredgeddischarge dike 402,400 2 bridges 101,000 8,997meters of canal lining 3,462,000

Yang He River I intakestructure 80,000 No. 2 Canal 6 sedimentdischarge gates 220,000 1 dredgeddischarge dike 100,000

Yang He River 1 intakestructure 140,000 No. 3 Canal 51 sedimentdischarge gates 689,200 1 dredgeddischarge dike 100,000

Total 6,198,200

Youyi (Friendship) Reservoir Rehabilitation 8. The epicenter of the earthquake was located 40 km from the reservoir. As a result of the earthquake a total of 27 cracks with a maximum width of 5 cm appeared on the -29 - ANNEX4 dam crest and slope failures occurred on both the upstream and downstream dam faces. Additionally, the outlet tunnel and the water intake tower were damaged, a rockslide occurred on one side of the spillway channel and a large number of buildings belonging to the water conservancy authority were damaged.

9. The Friendship Reservoir is the largest water storage facility in northern Hebei province and is a vital element in the water supply system of this region. The reservoir is on the Dongyanghe River and sits at the border of Hebei Province and Inner Mongolia in Shangyi County. The dam forming this reservoir was constructed in 1958 and underwent some modifications in 1970. The reservoir is a multipurpose facility used for water supply (mainly irrigation), flood control and hydroelectricity. The original storage capacity was 116 million mi3 ; however, much of this has been lost due to siltation and it is understood the capacity is now only 60 million m3.3

10. The dam is an earthfill structure, 40 m high, approximately 290 m long. The crest is at an elevation of RL1200 m, is 4.0 m wide and has a 1.2 m high wave wall along the upstream edge. Both the upstream and downstream faces of the dam have a rock rip-rap protective layer. The slopes of the dam faces vary from 1:2.5 to 1:3.5. The downstream toe has a rock filter. The dam is designed to operate normally in a flood of up to 100-year return period, and is rated as safe in a flood event of up to 1,000-year return period. This falls short of the national standard safety rating for dams in China of a minimum 2,000- year return period, and this is one reason why upgrading works are being proposed (see below).

11. The intake structure is located to the right of the dam wall, between the dam and the spillway. It is an inclined structure about 25 m deep, containing an inclined steel gate operated by a cable winch. The outlet tunnel is 2.2 m diameter, reducing downstream to 1.8 m diameter. Maximum discharge capacity is 39 cubic meters per second (m3 /sec).

12. The spillvvay is cut through rock on the right side of the dam. The spillway is at RL 1193 m, 7 m below the dam crest. It is a chute spillway about 200 m long with energy dissipaters at the downstream end. Maximum discharge capacity is 1,030 m3 /sec.

13. The power station is located below the dam and is equipped with three 400 kW turbine generators. Power is delivered to Shangyi County via a 35 kV transmission line. Irrigation water is delivered to three counties (Wanquan, Huaian and Shangyi) and the reservoir currently supports 200,000 mu of irrigated land.

14. The work proposed to be carried out on the reservoir and dam falls under two categories, repairs to the damage caused by the earthquake, and a general upgrading and refurbishment to make it function more safely and efficiently. The cracks in the dam are to be investigated further. It is proposed that cracks of less than 3 m depth will be filled with compacted soil. Cracks deeper than 3 m will be filled with cement grout. The proposed works are summarized below: - 30 - ANNEX4

Earthquake Damage Repairs Upgrading

Repair cracks in dam Increase safety rating to 2,000-year return period Repair slips on dam faces Construct a new vertical intake tower* Repair or replace the wave wall. Increase reservoir capacity Repair the intake structure Reduce seepage Repair slips at the side of the spillway Repair pore pressure measuring devices* Repair or replace damaged offices/dormitories * These are also related to earthquake damage

15. During a site visit on March 6, cracks and slope failures were observed. On questioning the local staff it was apparent that the extent of seepage through the dam had increased following the earthquake. The color of the seepage water had not changed however, indicating that there was not a noticeable increase in transport of fine material from the body of the dam. At the time of the site visit the reservoir water level was at RL1 190.8 m, approximately 9 m below the dam crest. During the flood season (summer) the water level could be expected to rise several meters above this level. It was apparent from the site visit that the dam was potentially dangerous and was in need of urgent remedial works.

16. Cost estimates have been made of cost of the proposed works. The extent of repairs needed to remedy the earthquake damage is still under investigation and because of the nature of the work it is unlikely that this can be accurately costed at this point in time. Estimates are as follows:

Earthquake Damage Repairs Upgrading Item Cost estimate (Y) Item Cost estimate (Y)

Reconstruct intake tower 1,495,000 Civil works on dam 3,700,000 Repair cracks in dam 5,017,000 Civil works on spillway 10,400,000 Repair slips on dam faces 1,502,000 Radial gates on spillway 160,000 Reconstruct wave wall 20,000 Intake equipment 360,000 Repair spillway slips 2,000,000 Temporary works 2,100,000 Repair pore pressure tubes 300,000 Design and reports 590,000 Building repairs/replacements 800,000 Project management 700,000 Temporary embankment 238,000 Other 1,100,000 Steel gate 120,000 Physical contingencies 2,800,000 Roadworks 56,000 Price contingencies 810,000 Temporary accommodation 549,000 Miscellaneous 371,000 Contingencies 179,000 Design & survey 1,025,000 Project management 372,000

Total 14,044,000 Total 22,720,000 -31- ANNEX4

17. The darnage to the dam has been investigated by the Hebei Investigation and Design Institute of Water Conservancy and Hydropower of the Ministry of Water resources and the plans prepared to date for repairing the dam are based on these findings. There is clearly some urgency in completing the repairs to the dam before the next flood season commences around June/July and the following issues are to be considered. The exact extent of repairs will not be known until after all investigations are complete, and even then there is a possibility that the need for further repairs may be discovered after the repair work commences. 4 4 97 {' 41.25 4 -1_2- * - -b 1 245 -|--+ 46.0 . - - 3zf ii~~~~~~~~~~~t^, 4. f.25 a J-0~~ ~

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LOCATIONS OF CRACKS IN DAM AND FRONT/BACK SLOPE COLLAPSES

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DRAWING OF RECONSTRUCTION OF OUTLET TUNNEL ANDINLET TOWER

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ANNEX 5: REGENERATION OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY

Background

1. Location. The three counties affected by the earthquake are Zhangbei, Shangyi and Kangbao. The three counties are located at the southern edge of the Mongolia plateau with the elevation from 1,200 to 1,500 m. The three counties share the border with Inner Mongolia in the north and Zhangjiakou City in the south and southeast. It is about 250 km from Beijing to the area. The total area of the three counties is 10,170 km2, of 2 ~~~~~~~~~~~2 which 1,017 km2 is urban area and 9,153 km is rural area. The total farmland is 320,000 ha (4.8 million mu).

2. Climate. With an inland monsoon climate and average annual precipitation of 389.7 mm, drought occurs 9 years out of 10 in this area. The frost-free period is only 90 to 110 days. The natural conditions are unfavorable for agricultural production.

3. Demographics. There are 47 townships and 836 villages in the three counties. The total population of the three counties is 849,000, of which 76,000 is urban population and 773,000 is rural population.

4. Socioeconomics. The urban economy is based on a processing industry of agricultural products, winery, sugar mill and leather industry, as well as small business. The total farmland of the three counties is 4.8 million mu, of which 4.3 million mu is rainfed area and 0.5 million mu is irrigated area. Due to unfavorable natural conditions, agriculture productivity is very low in this area. The average holding of farmland is 6.2 mu per capita or some 25 mu per household. The average annual income in urban areas in Y 2,000 per capita while in the rural areas this is only Y 1,200 per capita. The three counties are on the national poverty list.

5. Damage by Earthquake. In the three counties, 336 villages with 470,000 persons are affected by the earthquake. About 861 tube wells and 983 small stone wells were damaged by the earthquake, which affected the water supply to some 75,000 people and the irrigation to some 380,000 mu of farmland.

Dryland Agriculture

6. Present Agriculture. The present crop pattern and yields are listed in Table A5. 1. - 36 - ANNEX5

TABLE A5.1: PRESENT CROP PATTERN AND YIELD

Item Wheat Bean Potato Oil crop Sugar beet Vegetable Others

Area('OOOmu) 2,120 723 530 774 120 310 190 Yield(kg/mu) 50 55 1000 50 2000 1500 60 Total (Tons) 106,000 39,765 530,000 38,700 240,000 465,000 11,400

7. Markets. Most of the grain grown in the area is consumed by the farmers themselves. About half of the vegetable and bean crop is sold to Beijing and Tianjin. The prices of the local crops is listed in Table A5.2.

TABLE A5.2: PRICES OF CROPS

Crops Wheat Bean Potato Oil crop Vegetable

Price (Yuan/kg) 1.6 2.2 0.5 6.0 0.4

8. Crops. The proposed crop pattern and water requirement are listed in Table A5.3.

TABLE AS.3: CROP PATTERN AND WATER REQUIREMENTS

Crop Wheat Bean Potato Vegetable Total

Area ('000 mu) 61.25 12.25 24.5 24.5 122.5 Proportion(%) 50 10 20 20 100 Annual crop water 180 180 150 200 requirement(m 3/mu)

9. Salt and Water Balance. Groundwater is the major source for irrigation in the area. The extent of pumping of groundwater for the scheme will not raise the groundwater level. Also, the existing irrigation experience indicates no soil salination problems. Therefore, soil salination is not expected in the new irrigation areas. Water Resources

10. The results of water resources analysis in Zhangbei, Shangyi and Kangbao counties are listed in Table A5.4. -37- ANNEX5

TABLE A5.4: WATER RESOURCES IN ZHANGBEI, SHANGYI AND KANGBAO COUNTIES

Surface Overlapped Total water County Area Rainfall Groundwater water water resources 2 3 3 3 3 (kin ) (mm) (millionm') (millionm ) (millionm ) (millionm ) (millionin )

Zhangbei 4,185 395.2 1,653.9 177.1 77.4 46.4 208.1 Shangyi 2,649 404.1 1,070.5 74.3 87.4 26.6 135.1 Kangbao 3,336 369.9 1,234.0 92.4 35.7 15.1 113.0

Total 10,170 3,958.4 343.8 200.5 88.1 456.2

Source: Groundwateranalysis for each county in HebeiProvince, by ComprehensiveWater Resources ManagementOffice, October 1991.

11. Groundwater is the major water resource in the three counties. In order to maintain sustainable development of the groundwater resources, the exploitable groundwater resources has been determined carefully. Table A5.5 lists the results of water resources analysis for the plain areas in Zhangbei, Shangyi and Kangbao.

TABLE A5.5: GROUNDWATERRESOURCES ANALYSIS IN THE THREE COUNTIES

County Unit Zhangbei Shangyi Kangbao Total

Plain Area km2 1,922.00 596.70 1,094.30 3,613.00 Rainfall mm 395.20 404.10 369.90 mnillionm3 759.57 241.13 404.78 1,405.48 Rainfallinfiltration millionm 3 99.58 28.61 51.60 179.79 Rainfallinfiltration /Rainfall % 13.11 11.86 12.75 12.79 Lateralinflow fromhill area millionm 3 16.17 2.16 3.73 22.05 Canal seepageinfiltration millionm 3 8.04 2.83 10.87 Total feed to Groundwater millionm 3 123.79 33.60 55.33 212.71 Exploitablegroundwater resources millionm 3 86.65 23.52 38.73 148.90

Source: Groundwateranalysis for eachcounty in HebeiProvince, by ComprehensiveWater Resources ManagementOffice, October1991.

12. The sustainable exploitable groundwater resource is the result of the total inflow to the groundwater times a factor of 0.7. The total exploitable groundwater resources in the three counties is calculated at some 150 million m3 per year. The existing surface water resources projects can supply 90 million m3 per year. Therefore, the total sustainable water supply quantity is 240 million m 3 per year in Zhangbei, Shangyi and Kangbao Counties. The present water application statues are listed in Table A5.6. - 38 - ANNEX5

TABLE A5.6: THE PRESENT WATER APPLICATION STATUES (million m3 )

Surface Ground Agricultural use Industrial use Domestic use County Total water water Quantity % Quantity % Quantity %

Zhangbei 28.39 8.00 20.39 25.64 90.31 2.35 8.28 0.40 1.41 Shangyi 24.30 19.77 4.53 19.12 78.68 3.11 12.80 2.07 8.52 Kangbao 14.37 0.66 13.71 13.45 93.60 0.79 5.50 0.13 0.90

Total 67.06 28.43 38.63 58.21 86.80 6.25 9.32 2.60 3.88

13. The present water application is about 70 million m3 per year, accounting for less than 30 percent of the total sustainable water supply quantity. Therefore, the remaining potential water supply quantity is over 170 million mi3. The present surface water application volume is 28.4 million m3 per year, accounting for 31 percent of the existing surface water supply capacity, and the present groundwater application volume is 38.4 million m3 , accounting for 26 percent of exploitable groundwater resources. The remaining exploitable groundwater resources is 110 million m3n

Outline Irrigation Project

14. Location. The irrigation scheme will benefit 29 townships and 228 villages in the three counties. The extent of present irrigation and proposed irrigation areas in Zhangbei, Shangyi and Kangbao counties is listed in Tables A5.7, A5.8 and A5.9. The new irrigation areas were selected through a consultation process with the villages and townships.

15. Scope. The scheme includes the development of 50 deep tube wells, 150 shallow tube wells, 300 large dug wells with associated sprinkler and drainage systems, as well as road infrastructure. In addition, the project will provide some 4,500 small stone wells to the farmers. The farm road system is in need of upgrading while small-scale drainage work should be constructed. All the new irrigation areas have access to 1OkV power supply. - 39 - ANNEX5

TABLE A5.7: LOCATION OF PRESENT IRRIGATION AREA AND PROPOSED IRRIGATION AREA IN ZHANGBEICOUNTY

Existing wells Prop. Proposed wells Sprinkler No. oF Exist. Deep Shallow Large irrig. Deep Shallow Large Small irrigation Township villages irrig. area Sub- tube tube dug area Sub- tube tube dug stone pipe (mu) total well well well (mu) total well well well well ('000 m)

Zhangbeizheng 22 16,300 201 38 36 127 5,400 22 3 10 9 200 17.6 Tailugou 22 1,100 21 0 0 21 6,700 27 3 6 18 250 21.6 Youlougou 31 6,400 104 9 27 68 5,800 24 0 7 17 200 19.2 Gonghui 20 6,100 80 4 7 69 9,600 40 3 12 25 326 32.0 Mantouying 21 15,100 155 1 56 98 5,500 22 3 7 12 219 17.6 Erquanjing 28 8,500 114 3 9 102 5,500 19 2 7 10 335 15.2 Danjinhe 14 400 13 0 0 13 9,000 40 3 7 30 200 32.0 Dahe 20 5,500 26 1 0 25 8,800 39 3 6 30 200 31.2 Hailiutu 20 1,000 38 1 0 37 8,200 35 4 10 21 25 28.0 Liangmianjing 23 11,300 130 7 58 65 3,200 9 2 6 1 285 7.2 Huangshiya 18 4,000 39 1 2 38 6,800 27 4 13 10 280 21.6 Ertai 29 19,000 304 46 214 42 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Haojiaying 17 2,400 51 3 37 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Baimiaotan 15 1,200 29 2 16 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Xiaoertai 21 2,200 59 1 14 44 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Dahulun 22 11,300 154 0 115 38 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Zhanhai 13 500 19 0 0 19 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sanhao 10 700 162 5 110 47 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Total 366 113,000 1,699 122 701 875 74,500 304 30 91 183 2,745 243.2

TABLE A5.8: LOCATION OF PRESENT IRRIGATION AREA AND PROPOSED IRRIGATION AREA IN SHANGYI COUNTY

Existing wells Prop. Proposed wells Sprinkler No. of Exist. Deep Shallow Large irrig. Deep Shallow Large Small irrigation Township villages irrig. area Sub- tube tube dug area Sub- tube tube dug stone pipe (mu) total well well well (mu) total well well well well ('000 m)

Nanhaodian 20 3,400 75 11 44 20 8,000 36 1 5 30 150 28.8 Daqinggou 14 3,200 106 27 79 0 5,700 25 3 12 10 150 20.0 Qijia 8 6,500 89 9 80 0 700 2 0 2 0 58 1.6 Dayingpan 15 4,400 50 29 11 10 6,600 23 3 10 10 400 18.4 Dabanji 13 5,400 56 31 19 6 400 1 1 0 0 30 0.8 Halagou 10 1,400 19 3 10 6 5,500 20 3 9 8 300 16.0 Houshizhuang 13 700 22 4 10 8 900 3 0 0 3 70 2.4 Badaogou 14 2,900 75 0 75 0 1,600 8 4 4 0 0 6.4 Kangleng 11 1,700 35 1 28 6 1,300 5 0 0 5 60 4.0 Taolizhuang 10 500 10 0 10 0 2,100 10 0 0 10 20 8.0 Hongtuliang 16 1,500 38 0 6 32 100 0 0 0 0 20 0 Xiaosuangou 17 1,800 44 0 8 36 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 Jiashihe 13 1,300 29 0 19 10 400 2 0 0 2 0 0 Xiamaquan 7 400 14 0 14 0 1,200 6 0 0 6 0 0

Total 181 34,800 662 115 413 134 34,500 141 15 42 84 1260 106.4 -40 - ANNEX5

TABLE A5.9: LOCATIONOF PRESENTIRRIGATION AREA AND PROPOSEDIRRIGATION AREA IN KANGBAOCOUNTY

Existingwells Prop. Proposedwells Sprinkler No. of Exist. Deep Shallow Large irrig. Deep Shallow Large Small irrigation Township villages irrig. area Sub- tube tube dug area Sub- tube tube dug stone pipe (mu) total well well well (mu) total well well well well ('000 m)

Kangbaozheng 35 5,900 92 0 92 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Yanyoufang 22 7,000 147 0 147 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Zhangji 22 6,200 78 0 78 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Habiga 18 1,600 25 0 25 3,200 13 0 4 9 123 10.4 Tuchengzi 21 3,200 32 0 32 3,400 14 0 4 10 124 11.2 Dengyoufang 17 5,900 64 0 64 3,300 13 2 4 7 125 10.4 Erhaopuzi 26 16,200 170 1 169 3,600 15 3 5 7 123 12.0 Lijiadi 21 14.6 173 0 173 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Lujiaying 15 3,000 7 0 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Zhongyi 14 6,100 86 0 86 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Chuchangdi 17 7,000 105 0 105 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Mandetang 22 1,600 16 0 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Zhaoyanghe 22 9,600 187 1 186 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Tunkeng 24 4,400 73 1 72 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Danqinghe 23 6,400 97 0 97 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Total 319 98,700 1,352 3 1,349 13,500 55 5 17 33 495 44.0

Cost Analysis

16. The total cost for the new irrigation project is Y 64.7 million (US$7.7 million). Details of costs by component are presented in Table A5. 10.

TABLEA5.10: COST SUMMARY

Zhangbei Shangyi Kangbao Total

Total Costs Y million 64.72

Deeptube well Number 30 15 5 50 Unitcost (Y'000) 132.80 132.80 132.80 Subtotal(Y million) 3.98 1.99 0.66 6.64

Shallow tube well Number 91 42 17 150 Unitcost (Y'000) 81.90 81.90 81.90 Subtotal(Y million) 7.45 3.44 1.39 12.29

Large dug well Number 183 84 33 300 Unit cost (Y'000) 21.00 21.00 21.00 Subtotal (Y million) 3.84 1.76 0.69 6.30

Small stone well Number 2745 1260 495 4500 Unit cost(Y'000) 3.00 3.00 3.00 Subtotal (Y million) 8.24 3.78 1.49 13.50 -41- ANNEX5

Zhangbei Shangyi Kangbao Total

Sprinkler system Set 304 141 55 500 Unit cost(Y'000) 33.96 33.96 33.96 Subtotal (Y million) 10.32 4.79 1.87 16.98

Road Area ('000 mu) 74.53 34.50 13.48 122.50 Unit cost(Y/mu) 20 20 20 Subtotal (Y million) 1.49 0.69 0.27 2.45

Drainage Area ('000 mu) 74.53 34.50 13.48 122.50 Unit cost (Y/mu) 10 10 10 Subtotal (Y million) 0.75 0.35 0.13 1.23

Consultation Y million 1.08 0.50 0.20 1.78 Supervision Y million 1.08 0.50 0.20 1.78 Administration Y million 1.08 0.50 0.20 1.78

17. Well Construction. The total cost for developing the wells is estimated at Y 38.8 million. Costs details are given in Tables A5.11 and A5.12.

TABLEA5.11: THE UNIT COST FORDEVELOPING NEW WELLS (Y'000)

Survey & Pumping Power Well Category design Drilling Casing system system housing Labor Total

Tube well >70 m 5.00 40.80 41.00 15.00 25.0 4.0 2.0 132.80 <70 m 2.90 24.00 24.00 6.00 20.0 3.5 1.5 81.90

Large dug well 0.58 1.00 1.52 2.52 0 2.0 1.0 8.62 Small stone well 0.80 1.01 0.65 0.45 0.09 3.00 -42 - ANNEX5

TABLE A5.12: TOTAL COST FOR DEVELOPING NEW WELLS (Y'000)

County Type Quantity Unit cost Total

Zhangbei Tube well >70 m 30 132.80 3,984.00 Tube well <70 m 91 81.90 7,452.90 Large dug well 183 21.10 3,861.30 Small stone well 2,745 3.00 8,235.00

Shangyi Tube well >70 m 15 132.80 1,992.00 Tube well <70 m 42 81.90 3,439.80 Large dug well 84 21.10 1,772.40 Small stone well 1,260 3.00 3,780.00

Kangbao Tube well >70 m 5 132.80 664.00 Tube well <70 m 17 81.90 1,392.30 Large dug well 33 21.10 696.30 Small stone well 495 3.00 1,485.00

Total Tube well >70 m 50 132.80 6,640.00 Tube well <70 m 150 81.90 12,285.00 Large dug well 300 21.10 6,330.00 Small stone well 4,500 3.00 13,500.00

Total Cost 38,755.00

18. Sprinkler System. It is proposed to install a sprinkler irrigation system for each of the 500 tube wells and large dug wells. The total cost of the sprinkler systems is estimated at Y 17.0 million, based on a unit cost for one set sprinkler system of Y 34,000. Cost details are presented in Table A5.13.

19. Other Costs. The unit cost for the farm road is Y 20 per mu; the total farm road cost for 122,500 mu of new irrigation area is Y 2.45 million. The unit cost for drainage work is Y 10 per mu with a total drainage cost of Y 1.2 million. The consultation fee will be Y 1.78 million, i.e., 3 percent of the total construction cost of Y 59.4 million. The supervision fee and administration fee will each be Y 1.8 million, i.e., 3 percent of the total construction cost. - 43 - ANNEX5

TABLE A5.13: THE COSTOF ONESET SPRINKLERSYSTEM

Item Unit Quantity Price (Y'000) Total (Y'000)

Pipe 26.40 4" Aluminumpipe m 400 40 16.00 3" Aluminumpipe m 400 26 10.40

Fittings 6.160 Flange 1 150 0.150 Soft pipe m 3 26 0.078 4" PE pipe m 24 30 0.720 Support 24 23 0.552 Valve ()76 22 76 1.672 Plug '1)76 24 17 0.408 Plug (1D100 2 26 0.052 Sprinkler 24 82 1.968 Pressure gauge 1 200 0.200 Valve (1D100 1 360 0.360

Others 1.400

Financing Arrangement

20. The total cost of the irrigation scheme is estimated at Y 64.7 million, of which 70 percent will be financed by the IDA credit. The balance will be raised from project counterpart funds (Y 15.1 million) and Y 4.3 million will be raised by farmers, mainly through labor contribution (average 5 days per capita). The sources of the project counterpart funds are listed in Table A5.14. IDA funds will be applied to: (a) civil works for well drilling by specialized firms, and (b) materials and equipment for wells and sprinkler systems. The remainder will be funded by local financing.

TABLE A5.14: THE SOURCE OF LOCAL FUNDS (Y million)

Item 1994 1995 1996 1997

Smallirrigation project funds 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.3 Povertyrelief funds 3.7 5.0 5.2 6.9 Agriculturedevelopment fund 7.4 6.0 6.3 4.5

Total 12.6 12.4 12.7 12.6 -44- ANNEX5

Implementation Arrangements

21. The proposed irrigation project will be implemented in a three-year period: the first year 20 percent, the second year 50 percent, the third year 30 percent. Tube wells will be constructed by specialized well-drilling teams, of which there are 17 specialized firms in the Zhangjiakou area. The construction of large dug wells will be organized by the townships through labor contributions by the farmers under skilled supervision. The construction of small stone wells will be organized by villages and constructed by farmers.

22. The Project Management Office (PMO) for the irrigation scheme will be established under Zhangjiakou Earthquake Reconstruction Leading Group and the three counties. The responsibility of the PMO is to supervise the implementation of the scheme as well as quality control. The design will be carried out by the Zhangjiakou Design Office of Water Resources Engineering under the guidance of the Hebei Design Institute of Water Resources Engineering. The PMO will technically be supported by the Bureau of Water Resources of Zhangjiakou and the Bureau of Water Resources at the county level.

Operation and Maintenance

23. Water Management. The water resources engineering station has been established at the township level. The station will supervise the operation and maintenance (O&M) of the irrigation. A special team for the O&M of tube wells, large dug wells and irrigation has also existed at each village. Under the leadership of village committee, the team will operate and maintain the wells and sprinkler irrigation system, will record data and will collect the water fee. The irrigation fee has been estimated at Y 90/mu (total O&M cost of scheme divided by 120,000 mu).

24. O&M Costs. The costs of O&M include labor, power, repair and depreciation. The total O&M cost is Y 10.9 million and the details are as follows: (a) labor costs: the annual cost for O&M staff is Y 2,000 per person. With one person managing a 100 mu sprinkler irrigation area, to develop a 100,000 mu sprinkler irrigation area 1,000 staff are required. Therefore, the total labor cost for O&M is Y 2.0 million; (b) electricity costs: each tube well and large dug well can irrigate a 200 mu area; each small stone well can irrigate 5 mu. To irrigate the total area, the annual power consumption of each deep tube well, shallow tube well, large dug well and small stone well are 9,000, 8,400, 4,200 and 2,100 kWh, respectively. The unit cost of power is Y 0.45/kWh. Therefore, the annual power cost is Y 5.6 million to operate 50 deep tube wells, 150 shallow tube wells, 300 large dug wells and 4,500 small stone wells; (c) repair cost: the annual repair cost is Y 0.6 million, i.e., 1 percent of the construction cost; and (d) depreciation: the annual depreciation cost is Y 2.7 million, i.e., 4.5 percent of the total construction cost. -45 - ANNEX5

Financial Analysis

25. Revenues. The average annual gross incremental revenue is Y 379.0/mu with a crop pattern of 50 percent wheat, 20 percent potato, 10 percent bean and 20 percent vegetable. The details are listed in Table A5.15.

TABLE A5.15: INCREMENTALREVENUES FROM IRRIGATION (Yuan/mu)

Crops Proportion(%) Rainfed Irrigated Gross increment

Wheat 50 27.6 235.4 207.8 Potato 20 345.4 844.5 499.1 Bean 10 58.6 363.9 305.3 Vegetable 20 356.4 1,080.5 724.1

Total 100 379.0

26. The total gross incremental revenue from the 122,500 mu irrigated area is Y 46.43 million per year. The marginal value of water is Y 2.13/m3 . The crop budgets are listed in Tables 1 to 8 in the attachment to this Annex.

27. Expenditures. The total investment for the development of new irrigation scheme is Y 64.7 million and the annual O&M cost for the 120,000 mu irrigation area is estimated at Y 10.9 million. The depreciation and O&M costs will be entirely recovered from the farmers through a water charge of Y 0.5/m3.

28. Rate of Return. The cash flow of the irrigation project is listed in Table A5.16. With the prevailing interest rate at 8 percent, the repayment period is calculated at a little over two years. If 15 percent of the net revenue (Y 290/mu) from the irrigation area is used to service the IDA credit, it will take about eight years. -46- ANNEX5

TABLE A5.16: CASH FLOW AND IRR ANALYSIS

Year Investment 0 & M cost IncrementalRevenue Net Revenue

1 16.18 0.00 0.00 -16.18 2 24.27 2.71 -26.98 3 24.27 6.78 7.43 -23.62 4 10.85 20.89 10.04 5 10.85 37.14 26.29 6 10.85 37.14 26.29 7 10.85 37.14 26.29 8 10.85 37.14 26.29 9 10.85 37.14 26.29 10 10.85 37.14 26.29 11 10.85 37.14 26.29 12 10.85 37.14 26.29 13 10.85 37.14 26.29 14 10.85 37.14 26.29 15 10.85 37.14 26.29 16 10.85 37.14 26.29 17 10.85 37.14 26.29 18 10.85 37.14 26.29 19 10.85 37.14 26.29 20 10.85 37.14 26.29 21 10.85 37.14 26.29 22 10.85 37.14 26.29 23 10.85 37.14 26.29 24 10.85 37.14 26.29 25 10.85 37.14 26.29

Total 64.72 248.19 808.35 495.44

.. ,:-.::, -.. ::.iCost, +5%2% Benefits -30%. ~~~~12%o - 47 - ANNEX5

ATTACHMENT: TABLES FOR THE CROp BUDGET

TABLE 1: WHEAT WITHOUT IRRIGATION

Item Unit Quantity Price (Y/kg) Total

1. Output Yield kg/mu 50 1.6 80

2. Input 52.4 Seed kg/mu 10 2 20 Fertilizer kg/mu 4 0.7 2.8 Pesticide kg/mu 0.05 90 4.5 Land preparation Yuan/mu 20 Tax Yuan/mu 5.1 Labor person-day/mu 5

3. Net revenue Yuan/mu 27.6 4. Return to labor Yuan/person-day 5.52

TABLE 2: WHEAT WITH IRRIGATION

Item Unit Quantity Price (Y/kg) Total

1. Output Yield kg/mu 200 1.6 320

2. Input 173.2 Seed kg/mu 20 2 40 Fertilizer kg/mu 15 0.7 10.5 Pesticide kg/mu 0.1 90 9 Land preparation Yuan/mu 20 Irrigation fee Yuan/mu 88.6 Tax 5.1 Labor person-day/mu 8

3. Gross revenue Yuan/mu 235.4 4. Net revenue Yuan/mu 146.8 5. Return to labor Yuan/person-day 18.35 - 48 - ANNEX 5

TABLE 3: POTATO WITHOUT IRRIGATION

Item Unit Quantity Price (Y/kg) Total

1. Output Yield kg/mu 1,000 0.5 500

2. Input 154.6 Seed kg/mu 100 0.5 50 Manure kg/mu 1,500 0.05 75 Pesticide kg/mu 0.05 90 4.5 Land preparation Yuan/mu 20 Tax Yuan/mu 5.1 Labor person-day/mu 8

3. Net revenue Yuan/mu 345.4 4. Return to labor Yuan/person-day 43.18

TABLE 4: POTATO WITH IRRIGATION

Item Unit Quantity Price (Y/kg) Total

1. Output Yield kg/mu 2,000 0.5 1,000

2. Input 244.1 Seed kg/mu 100 0.5 50 Manure kg/mu 1,500 0.05 75 Pesticide kg/mu 0.06 90 5.4 Land preparation Yuan/mu 20 Tax Yuan/mu 5.1 Irrigationfee Yuan/mu 88.6 Labor person-day/mu 10

3. Gross revenue Yuan/mu 844.5 4. Net revenue Yuan/mu 755.9 5. Return to labor Yuan/person-day 75.59 -49 - ANNEX5

TABLE 5: BEAN WITHOUT IRRIGATION

Item Unit Quantity Price (Y/kg) Total

1. Output Yield kg/mu 55 2.2 121

2. Input 62.4 Seed kg/mu 15 2 30 Fertilizer kg/mu 4 0.7 2.8 Pesticide kg/mu 0.05 90 4.5 Land preparation Yuan/mu 20 Tax Yuan/mu 5.1 Labor person-day/mu 6

3. Net revenue Yuan/mu 58.6 4. Return to labor Yuan/person-day 9.77

TABLE 6: BEAN WITH IRRIGATION

Item Unit Quantity Price (Y/kg) Total

1. Output Yield kg/mu 200 2.2 440

2. Input 164.7 Seed kg/mu 20 2 40 Fertilizer kg/mu 8 0.7 5.6 Pesticide kg/mu 0.06 90 5.4 Land preparation Yuan/mu 20 Tax Yuan/mu 5.1 Irrigation fee Yuan/mu 88.6 Labor person-day/mu 8

3. Gross revenue Yuan/mu 363.9 4. Net revenue Yuan/mu 275.3 5. Returnto labor Yuan/person-day 34.4 -50- ANNEX5

TABLE 7: VEGETABLE WITHOUT IRRIGATION

Item Unit Quantity Price (Y/kg) Total

1. Output Yield kg/mu 1,500 0.4 600

2. Input 243.6 Seed kg/mu 0.1 440 44 Fertilizer kg/mu 50 3 150 Pesticide kg/mu 0.05 90 4.5 Land preparation Yuan/mu 40 Tax Yuan/mu 5.1 Labor person-day/mu 20

3. Net revenue Yuan/mu 356.4 4. Return to labor Yuan/person-day 17.82

TABLE 8: VEGETABLE WITH IRRIGATION

Item Unit Quantity Price (Y/kg) Total

1. Output Yield kg/mu 3500 0.4 1400

2. Input 496.7 Seed kg/mu 0.1 440 44 Fertilizer kg/mu 75 3 225 Pesticide kg/mu 0.06 90 5.4 Land preparation Yuan/mu 40 Tax Yuan/mu 5.1 Irrigationfee Yuan/mu 177.2 Labor person-day/mu 25

3. Gross revenue Yuan/mu 1080.5 4. Net revenue Yuan/mu 903.3 5. Return to labor Yuan/person-day 36.1