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Alpine Resort Futures Vulnerability Assessment (Social and Economic) Final Report DELWP August 2017

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Alpine Resort Futures Vulnerability Assessment (Social and Economic) Final Report DELWP August 2017 Alpine Resorts Vulnerability Assessment FINAL_Report Aug 17.docx This report has been prepared for DELWP. SGS Economics and Planning has taken all due care in the preparation of this report. However, SGS and its associated consultants are not liable to any person or entity for any damage or loss that has occurred, or may occur, in relation to that person or entity taking or not taking action in respect of any representation, statement, opinion or advice referred to herein. SGS Economics and Planning Pty Ltd ACN 007 437 729 www.sgsep.com.au Offices in Canberra, Hobart, Melbourne and Sydney Alpine Resorts Vulnerability Assessment FINAL_Report Aug 17.docx TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY IV Summary of supporting documents iv Conceptual model iv Literature review iv Consultation report v System map v Executive summary of the Vulnerability Assessment vi 1 PROJECT OVERVIEW 1 1.1 Study background 1 1.2 Study objectives 2 1.3 Project approach 3 Methodology 3 Literature review 4 Data review and analysis 4 Engagement 4 Systems analysis and mapping 5 Vulnerabilities and capacities identification and assessment 5 Reporting and communications 5 1.4 Report structure 6 2 VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT 7 2.1 The Victorian alpine resorts sector 7 The story of the alpine resorts sector system 7 2.2 Assessing vulnerability 13 Dashboard spreadsheet logic 13 2.3 Mt Hotham 18 Development of snow related activities (white season) 18 Non‐snow related activities (green season) 19 Vulnerability assessment 20 2.4 Falls Creek 29 Development of snow related activities (white season) 29 Non‐snow related activities (green season) 30 Vulnerability assessment 31 2.5 Mt Buller and Mt Stirling 41 Development of snow related activities (white season) 41 Non‐snow related activities (green season) 44 Vulnerability assessment 44 2.6 Mt Baw Baw 54 Development of snow related activities (white season) 54 Non‐snow related activities (green season) 55 Alpine Resort Futures Vulnerability Assessment (Social and Economic) 1 Vulnerability assessment 56 2.7 Lake Mountain 65 Development of snow related activities (white season) 65 Non‐snow related activities (green season) 66 Vulnerability assessment 66 3 CONCLUDING REMARKS 75 4 APPENDIX A 78 5 BIBLIOGRAPHY 80 Alpine Resort Futures Vulnerability Assessment (Social and Economic) 2 LIST OF FIGURES FIGURE 1. SUMMARY OF VULNERABILITY RESULTS BY RESORT – MAXIMUM ADAPTATION EFFECTIVENESS VIII FIGURE 2. SUMMARY OF VULNERABILITY RESULTS BY RESORT – NO ADAPTATION EFFECTIVENESS VIII FIGURE 3. ALPINE RESORT FUTURES PROJECT DIAGRAM 2 FIGURE 4. PROJECT METHOD 3 FIGURE 5. MT HOTHAM WHITE SEASON VISITATION (2006‐ 2016) 19 FIGURE 6. AFFORDABLE SNOW VULNERABILITY, MT HOTHAM 22 FIGURE 7. SNOW RELATED VISITOR NUMBERS VULNERABILITY, MT HOTHAM 24 FIGURE 8. WHITE SEASON COMMUNITY VULNERABILITY, MT HOTHAM 25 FIGURE 9. ENVIRONMENT VULNERABILITY, MT HOTHAM 26 FIGURE 10. GREEN SEASON VULNERABILITY, MT HOTHAM 28 FIGURE 11. FALLS CREEK WHITE SEASON VISITATION (2006‐ 2016) 30 FIGURE 12. AFFORDABLE SNOW VULNERABILITY, FALLS CREEK 33 FIGURE 13. SNOW RELATED VISITOR NUMBERS VULNERABILITY, FALLS CREEK 35 FIGURE 14. WHITE SEASON COMMUNITY VULNERABILITY, FALLS CREEK 37 FIGURE 15. ENVIRONMENT VULNERABILITY, FALLS CREEK 38 FIGURE 16. GREEN SEASON VULNERABILITY, FALLS CREEK 39 FIGURE 17. MT BULLER WHITE SEASON VISITATION (2006‐ 2016) 42 FIGURE 18. MT STIRLING WHITE SEASON VISITATION (2006‐ 2016) 43 FIGURE 19. AFFORDABLE SNOW VULNERABILITY, MT BULLER AND MT STIRLING 47 FIGURE 20. SNOW RELATED VISITOR NUMBERS VULNERABILITY, MT BULLER AND MT STIRLING 49 FIGURE 21. WHITE SEASON COMMUNITY VULNERABILITY, MT BULLER AND MT STIRLING 50 FIGURE 22. ENVIRONMENT VULNERABILITY, MT BULLER AND MT STIRLING 51 FIGURE 23. GREEN SEASON VULNERABILITY, MT BULLER AND MT STIRLING 53 FIGURE 24. MT BAW BAW WHITE SEASON VISITATION (2006‐ 2016) 55 FIGURE 25. AFFORDABLE SNOW VULNERABILITY, MT BAW BAW 58 FIGURE 26. SNOW RELATED VISITOR NUMBERS VULNERABILITY, MT BAW BAW 60 FIGURE 27. WHITE SEASON COMMUNITY VULNERABILITY, MT BAW BAW 61 FIGURE 28. ENVIRONMENT VULNERABILITY, MT BAW BAW 62 FIGURE 29. GREEN SEASON VULNERABILITY, MT BAW BAW 64 FIGURE 30. LAKE MOUNTAIN WHITE SEASON VISITATION (2006‐ 2016) 66 FIGURE 31. AFFORDABLE SNOW VULNERABILITY, LAKE MOUNTAIN 69 FIGURE 32. SNOW RELATED VISITOR NUMBERS VULNERABILITY, LAKE MOUNTAIN 70 FIGURE 33. WHITE SEASON COMMUNITY VULNERABILITY, LAKE MOUNTAIN 71 FIGURE 34. ENVIRONMENT VULNERABILITY, LAKE MOUNTAIN 72 FIGURE 35. GREEN SEASON VULNERABILITY, LAKE MOUNTAIN 74 FIGURE 36. SUMMARY OF VULNERABILITY RESULTS BY RESORT – MAXIMUM ADAPTATION EFFECTIVENESS 76 FIGURE 37. SUMMARY OF VULNERABILITY RESULTS BY RESORT – NO ADAPTATION EFFECTIVENESS 76 Alpine Resort Futures Vulnerability Assessment (Social and Economic) 3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Victoria’s alpine region is a much loved part of the state. Climate change will likely mean that the alpine resorts’ current economic, social and cultural values will change. Whatever the change, the mountains will endure as an important part of Victoria’s shared natural wealth. This report assesses the vulnerability of the economic, social and cultural values of Victoria’s six alpine resorts – Mt Hotham, Falls Creek, Mt Buller, Mt Stirling, Mt Baw Baw and Lake Mountain – to climate change. Summary of supporting documents The vulnerability assessment is the culmination of a program of work that included technical analysis and consultation. Not all of this work reproduced in this report but is available in a series of supporting documents for further interrogation. By way of context, a brief description of each report is provided below. Conceptual model The Conceptual Model report details the key concepts, the approach used to understand the alpine resorts system and its vulnerabilities and how the vulnerability dashboard that describes this was developed. The framework describes how climate change impacts on the ecosystem goods and services of the alpine region (through exposure, sensitivity, thresholds and tipping points) and how this then affects the community and stakeholders economically, socially and culturally. The conceptual model informed the design of the project steps that followed, including the process of data review; consultation planning; stakeholder consultation; systems analysis; and identifying and assessing vulnerabilities and capacities. Literature review The literature review includes: An overview of the climate change research, focusing on changes anticipated to affect alpine regions Approaches to climate change adaptation, focusing on approaches for alpine regions. The literature review provided the climate change knowledge base required to undertake the project. The literature review found: The climate is changing, and in alpine regions the signs are already starting to show. In the Victorian Alps snow cover has diminished by about fifty percent since the 1960s. The impacts of climate change are expected to accelerate towards 2100. Over the next 10 to 80 years the changing climate will: impact the length and quality of snow seasons increase operating costs for resorts due to additional snowmaking possibly impact snow sport participation lead to social and cultural impacts as a result of reduced snow cover and snow sport activity limit green season tourism activities due to bushfires However, humans are adaptive and experience elsewhere shows that the resort sector can: Alpine Resort Futures Vulnerability Assessment (Social and Economic) 4 undertake adaptation planning and capacity building implement efficient snowmaking diversify to other tourism offerings and to other industries prepare for bushfire events These and other adaptive responses are already occurring in Victoria’s alpine resorts. Consultation report A Consultation Report is available which provides a detailed break down of the current values in the alpine resorts and their perceived vulnerability to climate change. It also details the participants’ perceptions of the sectors’ strengths and weaknesses in relation to adaptation. Engagement with key stakeholders in the alpine resorts sector was designed to inform the understanding of how the resorts currently operate, what their current values are, how vulnerable these values are when considered in the face of climate change, and what the strengths and weaknesses are in the sector for responding to the changing environment. The consultation established that the economic value of the alpine resorts sector is dominant in the minds of stakeholders. There is a shared recognition that the resorts’ contribution to the state economy, visitation, infrastructure and the white season are vital economic values, and that these values are vulnerable to climate change. Consultation also identified the key social and cultural values of the alpine resorts sector. Social values included: the strength of the alpine community, social value of activity and the wellbeing that comes from being in the alpine environment. Cultural values are a way of being in or experiencing a place that a group of people share. In the alpine resorts, the consultation showed nature based culture as the standout cultural value, with activities based culture, snow culture and community culture also rating highly. Social and cultural values are also vulnerable to climate change, although not as vulnerable as economic values. Social and cultural values are values that can be maintained – and are worth maintaining – in their
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