0605-02 Bk.Pdf
Total Page:16
File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb
Load more
Recommended publications
-
London Plague Statistics in 1665
Journal of Of®cial Statistics, Vol. 14, No. 2, 1998, pp. 207±234 London Plague Statistics in 1665 D. R. Bellhouse1 Weekly Bills of Mortality for the City of London were published from the beginning of the seventeenth century. The impetus for the collection and publication of these data came from periodic outbreaks of the bubonic plague in the city. John Graunt, the father of statistical science, based his work Natural and Political Observations upon the Bills of Mortality on the published statistics. For the plague of 1593 in London, it is shown here that all published data, except for perhaps some yearly totals, have been constructed. Examination of the constructed data provides some insight into statistical thinking in the seventeenth century. Some aspects of the accuracy of the Bills of Mortality are also discussed as well as the statistical insights into the Bills of Mortality by some of Graunt's contemporaries. Key words: Data collection; history of statistics; reporting errors; scienti®c fraud; undercounting errors. 1. Introduction and Background John Graunt (1620±1674) is generally acknowledged as the father of statistical science for his Natural and Political Observations upon the Bills of Mortality. The book went through four editions in his lifetime (Graunt 1662a,b; 1665a,b), the last two published during an outbreak of the bubonic plague in London. Graunt based his ®ndings on the mortality statistics that had been regularly collected in London by the Company of Parish Clerks. The collection of mortality statistics, especially those relating to the plague, in the City of London date from the early sixteenth century. -
Introduction
Notes Introduction 1. Abraham Cowley, ‘To the Royal Society’, ll. 41–46, quoted in Francis Bacon, The Essays, or Counsels, Civil and Moral (London: Knapton, 1691), sig. A3v. Swift owned this edition (see LRJS, I, 125–26). On the Miltonic parallels, see Robert B. Hinman, Abraham Cowley’s World of Order (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1960), pp. 189–90. 2. See, for instance, Richard G. Olson, ‘Tory-High Church Opposition to Science and Scientism in the Eighteenth Century: The Works of John Arbuthnot, Jonathan Swift, and Samuel Johnson’, in The Uses of Science in the Age of Newton, ed. John G. Burke (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1983), pp. 171–204. 3. Cowley, ‘To the Royal Society’, l. 59. See Francis Bacon, Novum Organum (1620), ‘Plan of the Work’, sig. B4v, in The Instauratio magna Part II: Novum organum and Associated Texts, ed. and trans. Graham Rees with Maria Wakely (Oxford: Clarendon Press, 2004), p. 33. 4. See Charles Webster, The Great Instauration: Science, Medicine, and Reform, 1626–1660 (London: Duckworth, 1975), esp. p. 96. 5. See John R. R. Christie, ‘Laputa Revisited’, in Nature Transfigured: Science and Literature, 1700–1900, eds Christie and Sally Shuttleworth (Manchester: Manchester University Press, 1989), pp. 45–60, and Brian Vickers, ‘Swift and the Baconian Idol’, in The World of Jonathan Swift: Essays for the Tercentenary, ed. B. Vickers (Oxford: Basil Blackwell, 1968), pp. 87–128. There has been general disagreement, however, with Vickers’s argument that ‘Bacon stood for many things that Swift detested’, and that Swift’s allusions were intended to mock Bacon. -
Carolyn Merchant the WOMEN, ECOLOGY, and the SCIENTIFIC
Carolyn Merchant THE OF AT WOMEN, ECOLOGY, AND THE SCIENTIFIC REVOLUTION tfj 1817 Harper & Row, Publi$hers, San Francisco New York, Grand Rapids, Philadelphia, St. Louis London, Singapore, Sydney, Tokyo, Toronto Acknowledgment is made fur the permission of the Journal of the History of Phi losophy to include a revised version of the author's article "The Vitalism of Anne Conway" (July 1979) in Chapter 11; of Ambix to include parts of the author's article "The Vitalism of Francis Mercury Van Helmont" (November 1979) in Chapters 4 and 11; of Indiana University Press. to reprint from Metamorphoses by Publius Ovid, translated by Rolfe Humphries (Bloomington: Indiana University Press, 1955); and of Cornell University Press to reprint tables on p. 312 from William E. Monter, Witchcraft in France and Switzerland. Copyright © 1976 by Cornell University. THE DEATH OF NATURE: Women, Ecology, and the Scientific Revolution. Copyright © 1980 by Carolyn Merchant. PREFACE: 1990 copyright© 1989 by Carolyn Mer chant. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. No part of this book may be used or reproduced in any manner whatsoever without written per mission except in the case of brief quotations embodied in critical articles and reviews. For information address Haroer & Row, Publishers, Inc., 10 East 53rd Street, New York, NY 10022. FIRST HARPER & ROW PAPERBACK EDITION PUBLISHED IN 1983. Designed by Paul Quin Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Merchant, Carolyn. The death of nature. Originally published in 1980; with new preface. Includes bibliographical references. l . Women in science. 2. Philosophy of nature. 3. Human ecology. -
Early Insurance Mechanisms and Their Mathematical Foundations
The Mathematics Enthusiast Volume 5 Number 2 Numbers 2 & 3 Article 16 7-2008 Early Insurance Mechanisms and Their Mathematical Foundations Amy Minto Follow this and additional works at: https://scholarworks.umt.edu/tme Part of the Mathematics Commons Let us know how access to this document benefits ou.y Recommended Citation Minto, Amy (2008) "Early Insurance Mechanisms and Their Mathematical Foundations," The Mathematics Enthusiast: Vol. 5 : No. 2 , Article 16. Available at: https://scholarworks.umt.edu/tme/vol5/iss2/16 This Article is brought to you for free and open access by ScholarWorks at University of Montana. It has been accepted for inclusion in The Mathematics Enthusiast by an authorized editor of ScholarWorks at University of Montana. For more information, please contact [email protected]. TMME, vol5, nos.2&3, p.345 Early Insurance Mechanisms and Their Mathematical Foundations1 Amy Minto2 Missoula, Montana Abstract: This article gives a historical survey of early insurance mathematics and its development in relation to the maritime industry and the origins of the life insurance industry. The history of the probability and statistics and its intricate connection to the actuarial sciences and modern insurance can be traced to the time period described in this paper Keywords: Actuarial sciences; Anders Hald (1913-2007); Insurance mathematics; Life insurance; Logarithms; risk management; history of probability; history of mathematics Background Popular history tells the story of how insurance began at a coffeehouse in London called Lloyds, where merchant shipmen sat around the table drinking coffee and discussing their future voyages. One merchant explained that he was afraid that he would lose everything if his next ship was lost at sea, and another merchant offered to share in his risk – for a fee. -
1665: London's Last Great Plague Transcript
1665: London's Last Great Plague Transcript Date: Wednesday, 30 September 2015 - 6:00PM Location: Museum of London 30 September 2015 1665: London’s Last Great Plague Professor Vanessa Harding Plague in early modern London has been the focus of many studies, but there still remain inconsistencies and puzzling elements in an apparently widely-accepted narrative. London experienced at least six epidemics of plague between 1563 and 1665, but they occurred at quite irregular intervals and their severity varied from episode to episode and from area to area. Although the quality and healthfulness of London’s built environment almost certainly deteriorated over the period, plagues did not get successively more lethal: 1665 saw the highest death-toll, but not the highest mortality in relation to population size. After 1666, plague disappeared entirely even though the metropolis continued to grow. The identification of the disease, and its association with rats and fleas, which has held sway for the last century, has come under increasingly sceptical scrutiny. So, in the 350th anniversary of what proved to be London’s last great plague year, this lecture will consider whether we really understand the epidemic any better than those who lived through it. Introduction The 350th anniversary year of the last great plague of London has not seen commemorations like those for Waterloo or Agincourt, let alone Magna Carta, but it is still a worthwhile opportunity for reflection. The story of the plague is probably very familiar to many, and there is a small library of books on the topic. The question I would like to explore tonight is, do we really understand the London plague epidemics of the 16th and 17th centuries any better than those who experienced them at first hand. -
John Graun'ts Bills of Mortality
John Graun'ts Bills of Mortality Natural and Political OBSERVATIONS Mentioned in a following INDEX, and made upon the Bills of Mortality Title; epistle dedicatory: to John Lord Roberts, to Sir Robert Moray An Index of Positions, Observations, and Questions contained in this Discourse. The Preface Of the Bills of Mortality, their beginning, and 1 progress 2 General Observations upon the Casualties 3 Of Particular Casualties 4 Of the Plague 5 Other Observations upon the Plague, and Casualties Of the Sickliness, Healthfulness, and Fruitfulness of 6 Seasons 7 Of the difference between Burials, and Christnings Of the difference between the numbers of Males, and 8 Females 9 Of the growth of the City 10 Of the Inequality of Parishes 11 Of the number of Inhabitants 12 Of the Country Bills The Conclusion The Table of Casualties and other appended Tables Advertisements for the better understanding of the several Tables Stephan Dedication Graunt http://www.ac.wwu.edu/~stephan/Graunt/bills.html [05/28/2000 1:48:09 AM] John Graunt's "Bills of Mortality" The Epistle Dedicatory. TO THE RIGHT HONOURABLE JOHN Lord ROBERTS, Baron of Truro, Lord Privie-Seal, and one of His Majestie's most Honourable Privie Council. My Lord, Sthe favours I have received from your Lordship A oblige me to present you with some token of my gratitude: so the especial Honour I have for your Lordship hath made me sollicitous in the choice of the Present. For, if I could have given your Lordship any choice Excerptions out of the Greek, or Latine Learning, I should (according to our English Proverb) thereby but carry Coals to Newsastle, and but give your lordship Puddle-water, who, by your own eminent Knowledge in those learned Languages, can drink out of the very Fountains your self. -
John Graunt, the Law of Decline and the Origins of Urban Historical Demography Transcript
John Graunt, the law of decline and the origins of urban historical demography Transcript Date: Thursday, 29 November 2012 - 12:30PM Location: Barnard's Inn Hall 29 November 2012 John Graunt, The Law of Natural Decline and the Origins of Urban Historical Demography Professor Richard Smith As the late Nobel Prize-winning British economist Sir Richard Stone put it in his magisterial set of Mattioli lectures, delivered in 1986, but published posthumously as Some British Empiricists in the Social Sciences 1650-1900 (Stone,1997), John Graunt was virtually a one-book man. But his short book Observations on the Bills of Mortality published in 1662 many would argue marked a sea change in the use of statistics and in the derivation of a methodology that was recognisably demographic. In that sense Johan Peter Sussmilch’s (Süssmilch, 1741) reference to him in 1741 as a ’Columbus’ in the role he performed seems very apt. When giving his pioneering lecture series in the 1920s and early 1930s, not a great distance from where we are meeting today at University College London, on the History of Statistics in the 17th and 18th centuries (but published only in 1978 under the editorship of Egon Pearson) Karl Pearson (Pearson, 1978) was in no doubt that John Graunt had a very real claim to be regarded as the father of statistics. Be that as it may, the impact of the Observations was such that Graunt was very soon after its publication elected a Fellow of the Royal Society thereby bringing him within the famous Gresham College group. -
Theology and Natural Philosophy in Late Seventeenth and Early Eighteenth-Century Britain
i Theology and Natural Philosophy in Late Seventeenth and Early Eighteenth-Century Britain. By Christopher Joseph Kenny —2— Submitted in accordance with the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy. The University of Leeds Department of Philosophy Division of the History and Philosophy of Science September 1996. The candidate confirms that the work submitted is his own and that appropriate credit has been given where reference has been made to the work of others. Ii Abstract A number of historians of science have claimed that the early Boyle Sermons provided a platform for the promotion of a moderate-Anglican social and political ideology underpinned by Newtonian natural philosophy. However, by examining in detail the texts of Richard Bentley, John Harris and Samuel Clarke, this thesis argues that their Sermons should not be characterised as 'Newtonian'. These texts were highly complex literary productions constructed with the intention of achieving victory over the enemies of Christianity. An examination of their rhetorical strategies focuses attention on the use to which various cognitive materials - including natural philosophy - were put. Thus the presence of Newtonian concepts in the texts is explained by the aims and overall scholarly programmes of the Lecturers. It will also be argued that the term 'Boyle Lectureship' is problematic and that the main elements of the Lectureship - Robert Boyle's bequest, the Trustees, the Lecturers, and the Sermons - cannot be conflated into a single historical unit. Therefore, throughout this study, emphasis is placed on the contingent and singular behaviour of individuals located within an ecclesiastical and scholarly community, where career promotion and the notion of scholarly credit were important. -
Political Anatomy of Ireland
Petty to Aubrey, la July) 1681 (Aubrey MS. i_) fol. ioI', Bodleian Library)) referrin_ to his corrections of the Southwell MS. of the PoEtical Aritkmetick. C£ pp. 236--238. __._ _._. _ = ,_ ' . _.f _' . • -+., + ."_, .q. , _-d_ " ."-;"" ' 'rk"'.--,"":',!_':'_'"":-:" :-_'.'": One of Petty)s corrections of the Southwe]l MS. of the Political Aritl*mettJ_ (now Addl. MS. ahla8) British Museum, fol. a6"). Cf. pp. 292--293. ToS_e 7"u_ W_tI. I TO M. J. H. ! H.P. b PREFACE. HEdividedwritingsinto ofthreeSir classes.William ThePetty firstmayrelatesbe roughlyto his activities as surveyor of forfeited lands in Ireland under the Protectorate ; its present interest is chiefly biographical. The second includes his papers on medicine, and on certain mathe- matical, physical and mechanical subjects. These are now forgotten. The third class comprises his economic and statistical writings. The merit of these has been freely recognized. No writer on the history of political economy who touches the seventeenth century at all has failed to praise them; but the scarcity of the scattered pamphlets in which they were published has prevented them from be- coming as generally known as they deserve to be. The present edition of Petty's Economic Writings is designed to meet this difficulty. It has not been undertaken without warrant. Critics as diverse as McCulloch, Roscher and Ingrain have noted the need of a collected edition of Petty's economic pamphlets, and it appears that his descendants have twice considered its publication. But the project of the Earl of Kerry was interrupted by his untimely death 1, I al August, 1836. -
Public Health and Public Discourse: Contesting the London Bills of Mortality, C. 1603-1836 by Caroline Michaud Submitted in Part
Public Health and Public Discourse: Contesting the London Bills of Mortality, c. 1603-1836 by Caroline Michaud Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts at Dalhousie University Halifax, Nova Scotia August 2020 ©Copyright by Caroline Michaud, 2020 Dedication À mon père. Et toi tu es loin loin comme l’enfance Loin comme la rivière au nom de clapotis : l’Okliokma est loin de toi aujourd’hui... Yvon Michaud (1949-2006) ii TABLE OF CONTENTS List of Figures . vi Abstract . vii List of Abbreviations Used . viii Acknowledgements . ix Chapter 1: Introduction . 1 1.1: Historiographical Discussion . 7 1.1.1: John Graunt . 7 1.1.2: Early Commentary . 11 1.1.3: Historical Demography . 13 1.1.4: Early Historiography of Medicine . 15 1.1.5: Social History of Medicine . 17 1.1.6: Print Culture . 21 1.1.7: Scholarship on the Post-Plague Bills . 22 1.1.8: Public Health History . 27 1.2: Thesis Outline . 30 Chapter 2: Urban Growth and Public Health: The Bills of Mortality in the Era of Plague . 34 2.1: Plague in the London Suburbs . 37 2.2: The Plague Orders . 43 2.3: Consolidating the Bills of Mortality . 45 2.4: The City of London and the College of Physicians . 51 iii 2.5: Board of Health and Incorporation of the Suburbs . 57 2.6: The Interregnum and Medical Publishing . 64 2.7: The Restoration, Plague, and Fire . 66 2.8: John Graunt and the Birth of Political Arithmetic . 70 2.9: ‘Hidden’ Plague Deaths .