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Newsletter Media Sector Review October 2015

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Newsletter Media Sector Review October 2015 - - - - - - NOBLE of seethecomponents to partoftheNewsletter thesegmentanalysis to Refer STOCK MARKETPERFORMANCE STOCK benefit ofspectrumauctionsin2016. the from andintelevision bythepoliticaladvertisingcycle, fundamental outlook,spurred theimproving buttoward mirror, intherearview quarter lookatthesecond names. 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Member - SPIC (Securities Investor Protection Corporation). Protection Investor Member-SPIC(Securities broker/dealer. registered isaFINRA CapitalMarkets Aug-05-2015 Aug-07-2015 Aug-11-2015 Aug-13-2015 NOBLE Aug-17-2015 Aug-19-2015 Media Segment Indexes MediaSegment Aug-21-2015 Aug-25-2015 Aug-27-2015 Aug-31-2015 Sep-02-2015 Sep-04-2015 Sep-09-2015 Sep-11-2015 Sep-15-2015 NOBLE Overview Digital Media&Technology Publishing Radio TV Analysis Segment activity Industry Media Briefs Media Outlook INSIDE THISISSUE Sep-17-2015 Sep-21-2015 Sep-23-2015 Sep-25-2015 MEDIA SECTOR REVIEW| MEDIA SECTOR S&P 500 NOBLE NOBLE NOBLE Media &Technology NOBLE TV Radio Publishing Digital 14 12 10 6 4 3 2 1 8 VOLUME 2, ISSUE 4 | OCTOBER 2015 MEDIA OUTLOOK TELEVISION The air came out of the balloon on television stock valuations, likely started by the concern over ESPN’s weak subscriber count and the prospect of cord cutting. Subsequently, a number of Wall Street firms downgraded the broadly defined television sector, without highlighting the difference between cable networks and the broadcast networks. The subsequent sell-off in the television broadcast industry was much like “throwing the baby out with the bath water.” We find this issue somewhat laughable as it relates to the local broadcast television industry, which appears to have a large runway before retransmission fee rates or revenue run into a road block. We believe that investors will gain some footing to get back into television stocks given a favorable advertising environment through 2016 and the windfall prospects from spectrum auctions next year. Near current levels, the stocks appear to reflect the next recession, in our view, which does not appear to be on the intermediate term horizon. We look for a strong stock performance for the balance of the year. RADIO Radio stocks were battered by investor concerns of a slowing U.S. economy, fueled by the economic woes in China. The principal focus of investor wrath was on the more leveraged companies in the group, namely Cumulus Media. The CMLS shares dropped from $2.02 on July 1, 2015 to a low of $0.68 on September 29, 2015. Cumulus Media has a lot riding on the economy, with debt leverage currently at 8.9 times our estimated 2016 cash flow. Not surprisingly, the company recently made a number of management changes to address the choking debt levels. We believe that there is not a near term liquidity issue at the company and that the shares represent an option value that the company will be able to sell assets and use its free cash flow to pare down debt. Notably, the company does not need to refinance its debt for another two years. For investors that cannot stomach that level of risk, there are safer alternatives in the group that are recommended. PUBLISHING Much like the leveraged radio plays, the leveraged Publishing stocks took a drastic tumble, down 28% in the quarter, versus an 8.6% decline for the general market. We believe that investors drew a conclusion that the industry would not fare well in a possible economic slowdown, reminiscent of the past economic cycle. We believe that betting that an economic downturn is around the corner is a little premature. Furthermore, we believe that the industry is moving toward other revenue streams beyond print advertising that could offer some buffer in a downturn. While our current favorite in the industry, McClatchy is highly leveraged, it does have a hidden asset that it could sell should the fundamental prospects not improve. The company still owns a 15% stake in valuable CareerBuilder. As such, investors are encouraged to take note of recent weakness in the shares. DIGITAL The pace of the sell-off in Digital Media stocks accelerated in the third quarter, with the stocks down nearly 26.4% year-to-date versus a decline of 8.7% year-to-date in the second quarter 2015. We believe that the sell-off was related to fears of a slowdown in the global economy, fueled by the weakness in China. Although, on average, revenue contributions from Europe account for roughly 34% and Asia Pacific a modest 4% for our closely followed companies, there does not appear to be a slowdown to be of great concern. We view the very near term outlook as a hiccup in what is expected to be a long period of investment in new Digital Media technology, with the likelihood of above average M&A activity. As an example, Ericsson, on September 9, 2015, acquired Envivio (ENVI: Not Rated) for $125 million in cash, or roughly 3 times revenue. The purchase price supports the valuations of our current recommendations. VOLUME 2, ISSUE 4 | OCTOBER 2015 MEDIA SECTOR REVIEW | 2 MEDIA BRIEFS TELEVISION PUBLISHING 9/28/15 Comcast acquires majority stake in Universal Studios 10/07/15 Gannett to Acquire Journal Media Group for $12.00 Japan for $1.5 billion per share Lee Gannett Co., Inc. (“Gannett”) and Journal Media Comcast NBC Universal has agreed to purchase 51 per cent Group, Inc. (“JMG”) entered into a definitive merger agreement under ownership of Universal Studios Japan in a recapitalization which Gannett will acquire all of the outstanding common stock of transaction, partnering with the current owners including Goldman Journal Media Group for approximately $280 million, net of acquired Sachs, USJ’s CEO Glenn Gumpel, Asian private-equity firm MBK cash. Partners, and U.S. hedge fund Owl Creek Asset Management. 8/25/15 McClatchy Reduces Debt by $25 Million The McClatchy 9/28/15 Nexstar Broadcasting makes bid for Media General Company announced that it had repurchased $10.021 million in Nexstar Broadcasting Group Inc. offered to buy local-television aggregate principal amount of its 5.75% Notes due 2017 and $15.0 station owner Media General Inc. in a bold attempt to break up Media million of its 9.0% Secured Notes due 2022 for a total $22.9 million General’s recent agreement to buy Meredith Corp. plus accrued and unpaid interest in a privately negotiated transaction. 7/22/15 Scripps Acquires Podcast Industry Leader Midroll 8/18/15 Tribune Publishing Company announces $30 million E.W. Scripps Company has acquired podcast industry leader Midroll Stock Repurchase Program Tribune Publishing Company today Media, a five-year-old Los Angeles-based company that creates announced that its Board of Directors has authorized a stock original podcasts and operates a network that generates revenue for repurchase program, under which the Company may repurchase up to more than 200 shows, including “StartUp” and “Nerdist.” $30 million of outstanding Common Stock over the next 24 months. RADIO DIGITAL 9/29/15 Cumulus Media names new CEO as Dickey moves to 9/30/15 Comcast launches Youtube rival platform Watchable vice chair Atlanta radio giant Cumulus Media Inc. named Mary G. Comcast launched the beta version of its new Youtube rival video Berner CEO to succeed company founder and CEO Lew Dickey. platform Tuesday. After $200 million in investments in Buzzfeed and Vox Media, Comcast has been planning to launch Watchable for 9/11/15 Entravision inks three-year radio deal with the weeks. NFL Entravision Communications Corp. has signed a three-year agreement with the National Football League to bring Spanish- 9/29/15 Business Insider sold for $343 million in largest digital language radio broadcasts of NFL games to 13 U.S. markets. news deal ever German publisher Axel Springer announced that it bought 88 percent of Business Insider for $343 million. The deal 8/24/15 Cavendish KInetics raises $36M for radio chips that puts the value of New York City-based Business Insider, an online boost smartphone reception Cavendish makes radio frequency news powerhouse that has a reported 76 million readers and 325 micro-electro-mechanical systems (RF MEMS) — chips with devices employees around the world, at $442 million. The news site was co- on them. Some are used as tuners — which Cavendish is already founded by former Merrill Lynch Internet analyst Henry Blodget. shipping — and some as switches that it plans to ship next year. 9/25/15 NBCU’s Fandango Acquires Brazilian Ticketing Site Ingresso for $66.49 million Fandango has made its first international acquisition: NBCUniversal’s movie info and ticketing division is buying Brazilian entertainment-ticketing service Ingresso. VOLUME 2, ISSUE 4 | OCTOBER 2015 MEDIA SECTOR REVIEW | 3 INDUSTRY ACTIVITY RECENT EQUITY PUBLIC OFFERINGS SHARES OFFERING CURRENT OFFERING DATE ISSUER TICKER AMOUNT ($M) OFFERED PRICE PRICE TYPE 06/10/2015 CommScope Holding Company, Inc.
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