Cooperative Mexican-U.S. Antinarcotics Efforts CENTER FOR STRATEGIC & CSIS INTERNATIONAL STUDIES A Report of the CSIS Simon Chair in Political Economy 1800 K Street, NW | Washington, DC 20006 Tel: (202) 887-0200 | Fax: (202) 775-3199 authors E-mail: [email protected] | Web: www.csis.org Sidney Weintraub Duncan Wood August 2010 CENTER FOR STRATEGIC & CSIS INTERNATIONAL STUDIES Cooperative Mexican-U.S. Antinarcotics Efforts A Report of the CSIS Simon Chair in Political Economy authors Sidney Weintraub Duncan Wood August 2010 About CSIS In an era of ever-changing global opportunities and challenges, the Center for Strategic and Inter- national Studies (CSIS) provides strategic insights and practical policy solutions to decisionmak- ers. CSIS conducts research and analysis and develops policy initiatives that look into the future and anticipate change. Founded by David M. Abshire and Admiral Arleigh Burke at the height of the Cold War, CSIS was dedicated to the simple but urgent goal of finding ways for America to survive as a nation and prosper as a people. Since 1962, CSIS has grown to become one of the world’s preeminent public policy institutions. Today, CSIS is a bipartisan, nonprofit organization headquartered in Washington, D.C. More than 220 full-time staff and a large network of affiliated scholars focus their expertise on defense and security; on the world’s regions and the unique challenges inherent to them; and on the issues that know no boundary in an increasingly connected world. Former U.S. senator Sam Nunn became chairman of the CSIS Board of Trustees in 1999, and John J. Hamre has led CSIS as its president and chief executive officer since 2000. CSIS does not take specific policy positions; accordingly, all views expressed in this publica- tion should be understood to be solely those of the author(s). © 2010 by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. All rights reserved. Center for Strategic and Internatonal Studies 1800 K Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20006 Tel: (202) 775-3119 Fax: (202) 775-3199 Web: www.csis.org 2 contents Acknowledgments iv 1. Introduction 1 2. Narcotics Consumption 6 3. The Structure of the Mexican Cartels 10 4. Guns and Drugs 15 5. Violence among Mexican Drug-Trafficking Organizations 18 6. Mexican Public Opinion on Antinarcotics Efforts 24 7. Corruption 31 8. Effects of Drug Trafficking on Central American and Caribbean Countries 34 9. The Mérida Initiative 37 10. Alternatives to Current Antinarcotics Policies 40 11. Consumption Effects of Legalization: Marijuana, Alcohol, Cigarettes 44 12. The Socioeconomic Situation in Mexico 47 13. Summary Facts 50 | iii acknowledgments The reparationp and writing of this report took place in spring and summer 2010. Alaina Dyne, the William E. Simon Chair’s research assistant, handled much of the logistics and guided the research for the various chapters in the report. Following Ms. Dyne, Michael Graybeal joined the office of the Simon Chair in May 2010 as research associate and assisted in compiling and editing the chapters. Both were very helpful in the preparation of this report. Simon Chair interns also wrote several chapters for the report. Chapter 7, on Mexican public opinion on antinarcotics efforts, was written by interns David Angel, Asmeret Asghedom, and Michael Graybeal, who was then an intern. The discussion of murder rates in Mexico in chapter 5 was prepared by David Angel. All three provided much research assistance for the numerous top- ics discussed in this report. Funding for the report was provided by the Open Society Institute (OSI) with the support of Kasia Malinowska-Sempruch, director of the Global Drug Policy Program at OSI. We also re- ceived support from Tamas Varga, program officer for the Global Drug Policy Program, and David Holiday, program officer for the Latin America Program at OSI. Their recognition of the need to address current antinarcotics efforts between Mexico and the United States proved instrumental in producing the report. We also wish to thank the various authors whose background papers provided valuable in- sights and helped shape our thinking on antinarcotics efforts. Six background papers were pre- pared to help with the report: Armand Peschard-Sverdrup on the Mérida Initiative; George Gray- son on cartel structure; Raul Benitez on organized crime and security in Central America; Samuel Logan on drug-trafficking routes and methods; Johanna Mendelson Forman on arms trafficking; and Aaron Houston on the possibility of decriminalization and legalization in the United States. Three additional papers that helped shape this report will be forthcoming: Jonathan Caulkins and Eric Sevigny on imprisonment rates in the United States; Jon Winer on money laundering of nar- cotics profits; and Nathan Jones on the various arms used by the cartels. At CSIS, the editing and publications office provided much help with shaping the report into its final form. iv | 1 introduction Background Because of high U.S. narcotics consumption and Mexico´s role as the main transit country for cocaine from Colombia, the dominant narcotics activity in the Western Hemisphere takes place between the United States and Mexico. Competition among the large Mexican drug-trafficking organizations (DTOs) to maximize their share of sales in the United States has led to terrible vio- lence in Mexico, and that country’s “war” against the drug-trafficking organizations has amplified that violence. Mexico was a small player in the movement of cocaine to the United States before the 1980s, when the main route was from Colombia through the Caribbean to Florida. After that route was largely abandoned because of heavy U.S. sea and land interdiction, Colombian cocaine began to enter the United States through Central America and Mexico. This report will focus on four drugs: cocaine, heroin, methamphetamine, and marijuana. Mexico produces the last three of these drugs, which are shipped directly to the United States. If reliance on Mexico as the final transit country for cocaine sales to the United States were to become too costly for the drug-trafficking organizations, the route could change again. And while the violence in Mexico might then diminish, cocaine would still come into the United States be- cause of the demand for the drug. For many years, the United States and Mexico were at odds over which country bore the greater responsibility for the drug trafficking. The United States, which argued that Mexico was not doing enough to interdict drugs before they crossed the border, actually closed the border several times for days on end to “send a message” to the Mexicans to do better. The Americans were themselves unable to interdict the drugs once they moved into the United States. The Mexi- cans, in turn, insisted that the United States was not doing enough to reduce consumption. In fact, even as the United States was spending vast amounts on imprisoning drug dealers and users, many believed the country was wasting resources on enforcing the wrong policies. As the two countries moved closer toward each other in political and economic relations un- der the North American Free Trade Agreement after it went into effect in early 1994, their cooper- ation in other areas also increased. In March 2007, the two presidents, George W. Bush and Felipe Calderón, agreed in Mérida, Yucatán, to have a cooperative program under which the United States would support Mexico’s antinarcotics efforts. The Mérida Initiative, although modest, is now the main joint antinarcotics program between the two countries—and it will be discussed in this report. For many years the U.S. government was unwilling to admit explicitly that U.S. narcotics consumption bore some responsibility for the violence in Mexico. During a visit to Mexico in March 2009, however, Hillary Clinton, the U.S. secretary of state, finally stated the obvious: that U.S. narcotics demand was fueling drug violence in Mexico. This report thus comes at a time of | 1 antinarcotics cooperation between the two countries. This cooperation does not mean that the problems related to drug trafficking and consumption are on their way to solution, only that issues not discussed earlier can now be put on the table. The purpose of this report is to provide a full discussion of such issues. Current Issues The major issues are how to best deal with the large consumption of narcotics in the United States and the violence in those Mexican states where the drug-trafficking organizations, frequently re- ferred to as drug cartels, operate.1 To get at these issues, one must first examine how each country deals with its narcotics problems. The United States Drug sales and use are criminal offenses in the United States, and policy until recently was to imprison these criminal offenders. According to one informed estimate, that by Caulkins and Sevigny (see appendix A), slightly more than 335,000 drug offenders were in federal and state pris- ons in 1994, as well as another 150,000 in local jails. That total conforms to an Economist article of March 7, 2009, that reports that the United States arrests 1.5 million people a year for drug offens- es and imprisons up to 500,000 of them. The Economist article also notes that arrests for drug of- fenses explain why one in five black Americans spends some time in jails. Incarceration has been a particularly pronounced component of U.S. drug policy in comparison with imprisonment policy in other countries. Imprisoning so many people is costly, even without taking into account the effect on the lives of those incarcerated. A Zogby International poll carried out in September 2008 found that large majorities of U.S. voters believed that the U.S. “war on drugs” was a failure.2 This view held true for all regions of the country and when broken down by race, age, and education.