Macedonia: Ten Years After the Conflict
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MACEDONIA: TEN YEARS AFTER THE CONFLICT Europe Report N°212 – 11 August 2011 TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS ................................................. i I. INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................. 1 II. THE 2011 ELECTIONS ................................................................................................... 4 A. THE CAMPAIGN AND ELECTION DAY ........................................................................................... 4 B. GOVERNMENT FORMATION .......................................................................................................... 6 III. DOMESTIC POLITICS ................................................................................................... 8 A. GOVERNMENT INSTITUTIONS AND PARLIAMENT .......................................................................... 8 B. PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION .......................................................................................................... 10 C. THE JUDICIARY .......................................................................................................................... 11 D. THE MEDIA ................................................................................................................................ 12 IV. INTER-ETHNIC RELATIONS ..................................................................................... 14 A. EQUITABLE REPRESENTATION ................................................................................................... 15 B. LANGUAGE RIGHTS .................................................................................................................... 15 C. EDUCATION ............................................................................................................................... 17 D. DECENTRALISATION .................................................................................................................. 18 E. REMAINING ALBANIAN ASPIRATIONS AND OHRID II .................................................................. 20 V. MOVING FORWARD ON THE NAME ISSUE ......................................................... 21 A. THE INTERNATIONAL COURT OF JUSTICE CASE .......................................................................... 22 B. THE EU CANDIDACY PROCESS .................................................................................................. 22 VI. CONCLUSION: MACEDONIA 2014? ......................................................................... 23 APPENDICES A. MAP OF MACEDONIA ....................................................................................................................... 24 B. ABOUT THE INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP .................................................................................... 25 C. CRISIS GROUP REPORTS AND BRIEFINGS ON EUROPE SINCE 2008 .................................................... 26 D. CRISIS GROUP BOARD OF TRUSTEES ................................................................................................ 27 Europe Report N°212 11 August 2011 MACEDONIA: TEN YEARS AFTER THE CONFLICT EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS Ten years after signature of the Ohrid Framework Agree- Greece alike. The failures to secure NATO membership ment (OFA) that ended fighting between the country’s in April 2008 and to begin negotiations over membership ethnic Albanians and Macedonians, much of the agree- with the EU in 2009, four years after obtaining candidate ment has been implemented, and a resumption of armed status, helped Gruevski secure support for his “national conflict is unlikely. Macedonia is justified in celebrating renaissance” policy line. The resulting increased emphasis its success in integrating minorities into political life, but on nationalism, however, is dividing Macedonians unhealth- inter-party and inter-ethnic tensions have been growing fully between “patriots’ and “traitors”, irritating Albani- for five years. While this part of the Balkans looks to ans and discouraging Macedonia’s friends in the EU. eventual EU membership to secure stability, it remains fragile, and worrying trends – rising ethnic Macedonian The previous government coalition captured many state nationalism, state capture by the prime minister and his institutions, especially the parliament that it dominated. party, decline in media and judicial independence, in- Political dialogue broke down, and Gruevski and the SDSM creased segregation in schools and slow decentralisation leader attacked each other in highly personal terms. Leg- – risk undermining the multi-ethnic civil state Macedonia islative boycotts and laws passed under emergency pro- can become. Prime Minister Nikola Gruevski, who has cedures undermined democratic debate. VMRO-DPMNE just formed a new government, should work closely with and DUI party members were favoured for public jobs, his Albanian coalition partners and opposition parties to without regard for merit. The government reduced criticism pass and implement the measures needed for more democ- in parts of the highly politicised media by buying favours ratisation, inter-ethnic reconciliation and a solution to the through advertising. Selective fiscal investigation into and name dispute with Greece. subsequent forced bankruptcy of the opposition-leaning television station A1 and detention of its owner were viewed On 5 June Macedonia held elections that international ob- at home and abroad as silencing criticism. As under past servers assessed as generally positive and whose results administrations, the judiciary lacked independence. political parties accepted quickly. The opposition Alliance of Social Democrats in Macedonia (SDSM) coalition in- Relations between ethnic Macedonians and Albanians creased its presence in parliament from 27 to 42 seats. also suffered. The government was criticised for not doing Re-elected to lead the government, but with ten less seats, enough to ensure equitable representation, implement the Gruevski and his Internal Macedonian Revolutionary law on languages and oppose cultural exclusion. At the Organisation – Democratic Party of Macedonian National same time, segregation in the education system was be- Unity (VMRO-DPMNE) will now have to cooperate more coming more entrenched. Although a good institutional closely with their Albanian coalition partner, the Democ- framework exists to promote and encourage inter-ethnic ratic Union for Integration (DUI). Albanian parties should dialogue, relations suffered from weak central government strengthen their loyalty to the state and engage more sub- support. The prevalent view among much of the Albanian stantially in policy and decision-making. The new more political elite is that the DUI must be more forceful in pluralistic and balanced 123-seat parliament should foster articulating the needs of ethnic Albanians than it was in greater cooperation among political elites and help over- the previous coalition. come the highly polarised environment that was exacerbated during the SDSM’s four-month parliamentary boycott. Albanians are especially frustrated at successive govern- ments’ inability to resolve the name issue. As Crisis Group A more balanced legislature should also temper the prime has repeatedly argued, the dispute risks derailing the strate- minister’s state-sponsored nationalism, most evident in gies of the EU and NATO to stabilise Macedonia and the the hugely expensive and divisive urban renewal program wider region through integration and enlargement. Years in Skopje, built around a nationalist vision of ancient Ma- of UN-mediated negotiations have made little progress, cedonia that is offensive to the country’s minorities and and further talks have not been scheduled. Macedonia in particular appears to be waiting for an International Court Macedonia: Ten Years after the Conflict Crisis Group Europe Report N°212, 11 August 2011 Page ii of Justice (ICJ) verdict in the case it brought for alleged 5. The government should make EU reforms a priority, violations of the 1995 Interim Agreement that regulates and the EU should work with Macedonia and start bilateral relations in the absence of a name agreement. screening its legislation to quicken harmonisation The financial crisis in Greece and popular resentment of with the EU body of law (acquis communitaire). austerity measures there do not make it easy for the Greek leadership to focus on resolving the dispute. Neverthe- To Further Improve Inter-ethnic Relations less, Macedonia should seek decisive progress so as not to miss the opportunity to get the go-ahead for member- 6. All political parties should celebrate the ten-year an- ship negotiations when the EU makes new enlargement niversary of the Ohrid Framework Agreement, ac- decisions in December. knowledging that many of its provisions have been implemented, but continuous dialogue and additional Citizens of all ethnic backgrounds and political persua- financial resources are needed to implement the law sion have reason to celebrate Ohrid’s tenth anniversary. on languages and to achieve the decentralisation, The OFA has done much to reduce discrimination and equal treatment and equitable representation neces- inequality and maintain unity. It is still needed to forge a sary to ensure that Macedonia is a multi-ethnic civic common understanding of the civic state. During his im- state where no group feels discriminated against. mediately preceding term as prime minister,