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High Definition Television: Global Uptake and Assessment to 2010

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High Definition Television: Global Uptake and Assessment to 2010 High Definition Television: Global uptake and assessment to 2010 screendigest High Definition Television: Global uptake and assessment to 2010 screendigest Published March 2006 by Screen Digest Limited Screen Digest Limited Lymehouse Studios 30/31 Lyme Street London NW1 0EE telephone +44/20 7424 2820 fax +44/20 7424 2838 e-mail [email protected] Author: Vincent Letang Editor: Guy Bisson, Ben Keen, Allan Hardy Layout: Tom Humberstone, Leander Vanderbijl All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, transmitted, or stored in a retrieval system, in any form or by any means without the prior written permission of the publisher, nor be otherwise circulated in any form of cover or binding other than that in which is it published and without a similar condition (including this condition) being imposed on the subsequent publisher. Copyright © Screen Digest 2005 Printed by Screen Digest (A) 2 Contents High Definition Television: 35 Hardware market trends: ‘HD Global uptake and assessment to 2010 everywhere’ at IFA 2005 37 CES 2006: HD drives CE growth 3 Contents 37 All conditions are clear for a lift-off in 2006 7 List of tables and charts 40 The European launches 11 Key facts and forecasts 43 Chapter 3 HDTV Economics 43 Drivers and Obstacles 13 Executive summary 43 Interoperability of technical standards and formats 19 Chapter 1 Introducing HDTV 43 Industry co-ordination 19 Definitions, scope of the report 44 Bandwidth: the good news from 19 What is HDTV? advanced codecs 20 Technical concepts 45 Regulation 22 A brief history of high definition 46 Content availability 22 HD prehistory: the failure of analogue 47 Availability of HD displays in Europe HDTV 49 Copy protection 23 Widescreen TV 50 Consumer awareness 24 Europe leapfrogs SD widescreen to aim 51 Consumer appeal for HDTV 52 Audiovisual content: what HD changes 24 High definition DVD and other HD 52 Broadcaster business models for HDTV products 54 HD packages 54 HD PPV/VoD 29 Chapter 2 The take-off of digital 54 HD versions of existing premium HDTV channels 29 The USA: entering the third phase 54 Other HDTV business models 30 Europe 2004: the rebirth of the HDTV 55 Will there be an ‘HDTV switchover’? issue 55 Focus: HDTV and advertising 30 Encouragement from the EC 56 Focus: HDTV and sports 31 The FIFA 2006 milestone 57 HDTV and sports: the chronology 33 Next-generation displays show up flaws of SDTV 59 Chapter 4 Stakeholders facing 33 The HDTV issue re-introduced in France HDTV 34 2005-2006: Conditions ripe for take-off 59 A. TV technology and service providers 34 The HD ready label secures a European 59 Chipset vendors standard www.screendigest.com 3 High Definition Television: Global uptake and assessment to 2010 60 Set-top boxes manufacturers 101 Benelux 61 Broadcast electronics 101 Overview 61 Production equipment 101 Market context 61 Production and post-production services 101 Public Broadcasters 62 B. Transmission and platform service 102 Euro1080 providers 105 Cable 62 Satellite operators 106 Other HD initiatives 63 C. Consumer electronics players 106 IPTV 65 D. Content providers 106 DTH 65 Cinema production 106 DTT 65 Film catalogue owners 106 Belgian HD Forum 66 Television production 106 SES-Astra 67 Sports rights owners 108 Forecasts Belgium 67 E. Television operators 109 Forecasts Netherlands 67 Free-to-air broadcasters 68 International channel operators 111 China 68 HD ‘pure players’ 111 Overview 69 Pay TV operators 111 Market context 69 Summarising strategic impacts 111 DTT 70 Institutional players 112 The 2008 Olympic target 72 Digital Interoperability Forum (DIF) 112 CCTV HD 73 The business case across delivery 113 DTH: Shanghai Media Group platforms 113 Forecasts 73 Pay DTH 73 Free-to-air DTH 115 France 73 Digital Cable 115 Overview 74 IPTV 115 Market context 74 DTT 115 Free-to-air broadcasters 117 DTH 77 Chapter 5 Market Assessment to 120 DTT 2010 121 IPTV 77 HD supply 122 Cable 77 HD platforms 122 HD Forum 79 HD operators 123 Forecasts 79 HD channels 81 How many HD channels in Europe by 125 Germany 2010? 125 Overview 85 HD penetration 125 Market context 85 Methodology 125 Public Broadcasters 86 HD resolution and HD ready households 127 Free-to-air broadcasters 89 Worldwide consolidation 128 DTH 129 DTT 95 Chapter 6 Country profiles 130 Cable 130 IPTV 95 Australia 130 HD Forum 95 Overview 131 HDTV equipment trends 95 Market context 132 Forecasts 95 DTT 96 The HD quota 133 Hong Kong 97 HD technical requirements 133 Overview 97 HD implementation 133 Market context 97 HD content 133 DTT 98 Other platforms and pay TV 133 IPTV 99 Hardware trends 133 DTH 100 Forecasts Australia 133 Cable 134 HD content 134 Forecasts 4 screendigest © 2005 Contents 137 Italy 170 Hardware trends 137 Overview 170 Production services 137 Market context 171 Forecasts 137 RAI 137 Commercial broadcasters 173 United States 138 DTH: Sky Italia 173 Overview 139 IPTV 174 Market context 139 HD Forum 174 The introduction of HDTV with DTT 140 Forecasts 176 DTH – DirecTV 178 DTH – Echostar 141 Japan 179 Cable 141 Overview 180 IPTV 141 Market context 180 HD programme providers 141 Early analogue HDTV 181 Rainbow/Voom 142 DTH 182 Discovery 143 Cable 184 Equipment market 143 DTT 186 Consumer awareness 144 HD content – The NHK role 187 Focus on sports 144 Hardware and household penetration 187 Focus on Canada 146 Forecasts Japan 187 Forecasts US 147 Korea 191 Glossary 147 Overview 147 Market context 147 DTT 148 DTH 149 Cable 149 Hardware and consumer issues 150 Forecasts 151 Nordic Countries 151 Overview 151 Market context 151 Public broadcasters 153 DTH 154 Digital cable 154 IPTV 155 DTT 155 HD Forum 155 HD equipment trends 156 Forecasts 157 Portugal 157 Overview 157 Portuguese operators facing HDTV 158 Forecasts 161 United Kingdom 161 Overview 161 Market context 161 The BBC 164 ITV 164 DTH: Sky HD 168 Cable 168 IPTV 169 DTT 169 HD Forum www.screendigest.com 5 High Definition Television: Global uptake and assessment to 2010 6 screendigest © 2005 List of tables and charts High Definition Television: 38 Figure 8: The three key factors in the HD Global uptake and assessment to 2010 migration and the drivers to HD broadcasting in Europe 19 Chapter 1 Introducing HDTV 40 Figure 9: HD launches in 2005-2006 20 Figure 1: The improvement of resolution 41 Table 8: All HDTV services in display technologies 20 Table 1: HD across display and 43 Chapter 3 HDTV Economics broadcasting technologies 44 Table 9: Drivers and obstacles to HDTV 21 Figure 2: Picture areas for SD and HD at uptake same resolution 45 Table 10: Bandwidth required and costs 21 Table 2: Comparison of TV formats involved in HDTV broadcasting 22 Figure 3: The HD technical chain for a 47 Figure 10: Switch to HD production and fully HD experience availability of content for broadcasters 25 Figure 4: The high definition DVD 48 Figure 11: Dixons flat HD TVs by size formats and price (as of December 2005) 25 Figure 5: Broadcast TV vs. home video, a 49 Table 11: Dixons flat TVs — percentage race for higher quality of HD ready per price category 26 Table 3: Chronology of HDTV 49 Table 12: Dixons flat TVs — percentage 27 Chronology of HDTV (continued) of HD ready per size category 49 Table 13: Dixons flat TVs — average 29 Chapter 2 The take-off of digital price per size category and HD premium HDTV 49 Table 14: FNAC Flat TVs above 26-inch 29 Figure 6: Chronology of HD in Japan, — proportion of HD models by level of Europe and the US resolution 32 Table 4: Tariffs for the international feed 51 Table 15: Awareness of ‘HD ready’ in of the FIFA World Cup Europe in October 2005 33 Table 5: Rights holders and HD 52 Figure 12: Consumers criteria when broadcasts of the 2006 FIFA World Cup choosing a new TV set 34 Table 6: EICTA’s ‘HD ready’ minimum 53 Table 16: Added value and added costs in requirements for TV sets producing HD across main genres 35 Figure 7: Consumer drivers in the 54 Figure 13: Pay HD TV business models migration towards HD ready FTVs 55 Figure 14: Cost vs. quality in TV 37 Table 7: Cross promotion marketing transmission agreements between manufacturers and 58 Figure 15: The evolution of sports broadcasters on HDTV production www.screendigest.com 7 © 2005 High Definition Television: Global uptake and assessment to 2010 59 Chapter 4 Stakeholders facing 86 Table 32: High resolution TV households HDTV (Europe) 59 Figure 16: The value chain of television 86 Table 33: Proportion of high resolution 60 Table 17: Partnerships between TV TV households (Europe) operators and STB providers 87 Table 34: HD ready TV households 60 Table 18: Partnerships between STB (Europe) makers and chipset provider 87 Table 35: Proportion of HD ready TV 63 Table 19: Additional business for satellite households (Europe) operators: HD Channels already launched 88 Figure 25: Penetration of HD ready or announced on Astra households in Europe in 2010, by 63 Table 20: Bandwidth requirement and country transmission cost for HD feeds (average) 88 Table 36: High resolution TV households 63 Table 21: Theoretical bandwidth without HDMI/DVI (therefore not ‘HD requirement for SD and HD feeds ready’) 64 How much can satellite operator can 89 Figure 26: Number of HD ready make from the demand for HDTV? households in Europe (2010) 64 Table 22: Forecast of additional revenue 89 Figure 27: Number of HD ready for satellite operators in Europe households in Europe — Percentage of 66 Table 23: Threats and opportunities for total (2010) content providers 90 Table 37: HD resolution households 67 Focus on animation production (2004-2010) 71 Table 24: Summary of
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