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55Th ANNUAL REPORT 2015 k Central Bank of Sudan 55th ANNUAL REPORT 2015 P. O. Box: 313. Tel. (+249) 18705 6689 Website: http://www.cbos.gov.sd E-mail: [email protected] In the Name of Allah The Most Gracious, the Most Merciful The Central Bank of Sudan is pleased to present the year 2015 annual report for researchers, academician and those who concerned with the economic, banking and financial issues. We hope that the report can meet all the requirements of the users. Abdelrahman Hassan Abdelrahman Governor and Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Central Bank of Sudan BOARD OF DIRECTORS OF THE CENTRAL BANK OF SUDAN Mr. Abdelrahman Hassan Abdelrahman Governor and Chairman of the Board of Directors Mr. ELgaili Mohamed Elbashir Deputy Governor and Member of the Board Mr. Mustafa Yousif Holi Under Secretary-Ministry of Finance, Member of the Board Prof. Mohamed El-Fatih Hamid Member of the Board Mr. Gindeel Ibrahim Gindeel Member of the Board Dr. Ibrahim Abdel Moneim Sobahi Member of the Board Prof. Awatif Yousif Mohamed Member of the Board ------------------------------------------------ Mr. Hazim Abdelgadir Ahmed Secretary of the Board CONTENTS Subject Page Introduction 1 Chapter One: Major International Economic Developments During 2015 9 Chapter Two: Central Bank of Sudan (CBOS) Policies for 2015 27 Chapter Three: Money Supply 39 Chapter Four: Banks and Non-Bank Financial Institutions 51 Chapter Five: Central Bank of Sudan Accounts for 2015 89 Chapter Six: General Government Budget Performance 97 Chapter Seven: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) 117 Chapter Eight: Production 135 Chapter Nine: Foreign Trade 163 Chapter Ten: Balance of Payments 181 Appendices 191 INTRODUCTION The annual report of the Central bank of Sudan for the year 2015 was issued under severe conditions at the global, regional and national levels. These conditions were led to a variation in the performance of most economic groups. The report includes ten chapters; the first presents the global and regional economic developments, while the rest of the reviewed the performance of the national economy, namely: monetary and financial sector, public finance sector, real sector, and foreign trade and balance of payments sector. At the global level, the world growth rate decreased from 3.4% in 2014 to 3.1% in 2015, where the advanced economies recorded slight recovery specially the USA, due to its accommodative absorption policies to recent crises, which contributed in accelerating the growth and reducing unemployment in general. The world economy still faces the challenges of the drop in oil prices and its implications on both oil-exporting and oil-importing countries, and the rapid increase in political tensions and changes in most economic groups, beside the fragility of the financial sector and rising financial risks in emerging markets. Nevertheless, the growth rate rose in the group of industrial countries from 1.8% in 2014 to 2.0% in 2015, while the growth rate for the developing countries decreased from 4.6% in 2014 to 4.0% in 2015, due to the decline in growth rate in Middle East, East Asia and Latin America. The average inflation rate of industrial countries decreased from 1.4% in 2014 to 0.3% in 2015, while the average inflation rate of developing countries increased from 5.1% in 2014 to 5.6% in 2015, as a result of the pressures faced by most of oil exporting countries, in addition to the fluctuations in exchange rate and the fragility of the financial sector. The Current Account (C/A) balance as a percentage of GDP in industrial countries managed to contain at the same level of 2014 at 0.4%, where the C/A position as a percentage of GDP ratio in developing countries deteriorated from a surplus of 0.5% in 2014 to deficit of 0.1% in 2015, as a result of decreasing capital inflows from industrial and advanced countries. At the regional level, the growth rate of Middle East and North Africa (MENA) group decreased from 2.6% in 2014 to 2.3% in 2015, while the growth rate of Great Arab Free Trade Area (GAFTA) group decreased from 1.1% in 2014 to 0.7% in 55th ANNUAL REPORT 2015 1 2015, also the COMESA countries growth rate decreased from 3.5% in 2014 to 3.2% in 2015. The average inflation rate for Middle East and North Africa (MENA) group remained at 12.3% as in 2014, and the average inflation rate of Great Arab Free Trade Area (GAFTA) group increased a little bit from 5.4% in 2014 to 5.6% in 2015, while the COMESA group average inflation rate decreased from 7.6% in 2014 to 7.2% in 2015. Moreover, the C/A balance as a percentage of GDP in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) group shifted from a surplus of 6.1% in 2014 to a deficit of 0.4% in 2015, also the deficit in COMESA group increased from 9.4% in 2014 to 11.1% in 2015, while the Great Arab Free Trade Area (GAFTA) group recorded sharp deterioration from 2.1% in 2014 to 10.2% in 2015. At the national level, the Central Bank of Sudan policies in collaboration with public finance policies aimed at achieving real growth rate of 6.3% and average inflation rate of 25.9% through targeting the nominal money supply growth rate in the range of 15.3% besides achieving some sort of external and internal balance. The actual performance indicates that the growth rate in money supply was 20.5% at the end of 2015, this was attributed to the finance of some strategic goods by the Central Bank to stabilize their prices, beside purchasing of gold, and allocating its proceeds to the essential products. In addition to other policies which contributed to reduce the average inflation rate from 25.7% in 2014 to 17.6% 2015. The total assets of banking system increased from SDG 92.3 billion at the end of the year 2014 to SDG 108.9 billion at the end of the year 2015 by 18%, and the total stock of finance increased from SDG 44.3 billion at the end of year 2014 to SDG 53.4 billion at the end of year 2015 by 20.6%, where the year 2015 showed an improvement in the banking soundness indicators, where the capital adequacy ratio increased from 18% in 2014 to 20% in 2015, while the non-performance loans ratio of the banks decreased from 7.1% in 2014 to 5.1% in 2015. In government finance sector, the general budget aimed at achieving macroeconomic objectives by increase the public revenues and rationing the public expenditure, where the public revenues reached SDG 54.5 billion, while the public expenditure SDG 61.5 billion at the end of 2015. the budget deficit registered SDG 6.9 billion at the end of the year 2015. In the real sector, the estimates indicate that the real GDP growth rate increased from 2.7% in the year 2014 to 4.9% in 2015. 2 55th ANNUAL REPORT 2015 In the external sector, the overall balance of payments shifted from deficit of US$ 3.3 million in 2014 to a surplus of US$ 38.4 million in 2015, while the current account deficit has increased from US$ 3545.5 million in 2014 to US$ 5933.5 million in 2015. The foreign trade data indicates an increase in the deficit of trade balance from US$ 3.65 billion in 2014 to US$ 5.2 billion in 2015 by 42%, where the volume of exports decreased from US$ 4.45 billion in 2014 to US$ 3.2 billion in 2015 by 29%, and the volume of imports increased slightly from US$ 8.1 billion to US$ 8.36 billion by 3.2%. Sudan’s external debt rose from US$ 43.7 billion at the end of 2014 to US$ 45.0 billion at the end of 2015, due to the accumulated interest rate of contracted loans and penalties. 55th ANNUAL REPORT 2015 3 Most important, global, Regional and Domestic Economic Indicators for 2014 and 2015 2014* 2015** Global Economic Indicators - Global economy growth rate (%) 3.4 3.1 - Industrial economies growth rate (%) 1.8 2.0 - Industrial economies inflation rate (%) 1.4 0.3 - Industrial economies unemployment rate (%) 7.3 6.8 - Industrial economies current A/C position as percent of GDP (%) 0.4 0.5 Regional Economic Indicators - Africa growth rate (%) 5.0 3.8 - Asia growth rate (%) 6.8 6.5 - Middle-East growth rate (%) 2.6 2.3 - Latin America growth rate (%) 1.3 (0.3) - Africa inflation rate (%) 6.4 6.9 - Asia inflation rate (%) 3.5 3.0 - Middle-east inflation rate (%) 6.5 6.5 - Latin America inflation rate (%) 7.9 11.2 - Africa current A/C position as percent of GDP (%) (4.1) (5.7) - Asia current A/C position as percent of GDP (%) 1.4 2.0 - Middle-East current A/C position as percent of GDP (%) 6.1 (4.0) - Latin America current A/C position as percent of GDP (%) (3.0) (3.0) - Greater Arab Free Trade Area Countries economic growth rate (%) 1.1 0.7 - Greater Arab Free Trade Area Countries inflation rate (%) 5.4 5.8 - Greater Arab Free Trade Area Countries current A/C position as ratio of GDP (%) (2.1) (10.2) - COMESA Countries economic growth rate (%) 3 2.9 - COMESA Countries inflation rate (%) 7.6 7.2 4 55th ANNUAL REPORT 2015 2014* 2015** - COMESA Countries current A/C position as ration of GDP (%) (9.4) (11.1) Domestic Economic Indicators - GDP in current prices - (SDG million) 471,295.45 582,936.71 - Real GDP growth rate (%) 2.7 4.9 - Annual average inflation rate (%) 25.7 17.6 - End year inflation rate (%) 25.4 12.6 - Over-all fiscal deficit (-) - (SDG million) 4.4 6.9 - Fiscal deficit (-) (including grants) as percent of GDP (%) 0.93 1.19 - Fiscal deficit (-) (excluding grants) as percent of GDP (%) 0.93 1.19 - Financing fiscal deficit (-) from internal sources (%) 80 106 - Financing fiscal deficit (-) from external sources (%) 20 (6) - Total revenues - (SDG million) 51.2 54.5 - Oil revenues as total revenues (%) 26.2 0.00 - Tax revenues as total revenues (%) 68.7 77.0 - Total expenditure - (SDG million)
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