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Uncertainty and Civil War Onset
Uncertainty and Civil War Onset Iris Malone∗ Abstract Why do some armed groups escalate their campaigns to civil war, while others do not? Only 25% of the 960 armed groups formed between 1970 and 2012 became violent enough to surpass the 25-battle death threshold, often used to demarcate \civil conflict.” I develop a new theory that argues this variation occurs because of an information problem. States decide how much counterinsurgency effort to allocate for repression on the basis of observable characteristics about an armed group's initial capabilities, but two scenarios make it harder to get this decision right, increasing the risk of civil war. I use fieldwork interviews with intelligence and defense officials to identify important group characteristics for civil war and apply machine learning methods to test the predictive ability of these indicators. The results show that less visible armed groups in strong states and strong armed groups in weak states are most likely to lead to civil war onset. These findings advance scholarly understanding about why civil wars begin and the effect of uncertainty on conflict. ∗Department of Political Science, 100 Encina Hall West, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305. ([email protected], web.stanford.edu/~imalone). 1 Introduction Why do some armed groups escalate their campaigns to civil war, while most do not? Using an original dataset, I show that only 25% of the 960 armed groups formed between 1970 and 2012 became violent enough to surpass the 25-battle death threshold, often used to demarcate \civil conflict.”1 Only 8% of armed groups surpassed the higher \civil war" threshold of 1000 fatalities per year. -
Civil War Generals Buried in Spring Grove Cemetery by James Barnett
Spring Grove Cemetery, once characterized as blending "the elegance of a park with the pensive beauty of a burial-place," is the final resting- place of forty Cincinnatians who were generals during the Civil War. Forty For the Union: Civil War Generals Buried in Spring Grove Cemetery by James Barnett f the forty Civil War generals who are buried in Spring Grove Cemetery, twenty-three had advanced from no military experience whatsoever to attain the highest rank in the Union Army. This remarkable feat underscores the nature of the Northern army that suppressed the rebellion of the Confed- erate states during the years 1861 to 1865. Initially, it was a force of "inspired volunteers" rather than a standing army in the European tradition. Only seven of these forty leaders were graduates of West Point: Jacob Ammen, Joshua H. Bates, Sidney Burbank, Kenner Garrard, Joseph Hooker, Alexander McCook, and Godfrey Weitzel. Four of these seven —Burbank, Garrard, Mc- Cook, and Weitzel —were in the regular army at the outbreak of the war; the other three volunteered when the war started. Only four of the forty generals had ever been in combat before: William H. Lytle, August Moor, and Joseph Hooker served in the Mexican War, and William H. Baldwin fought under Giuseppe Garibaldi in the Italian civil war. This lack of professional soldiers did not come about by chance. When the Constitutional Convention met in Philadelphia in 1787, its delegates, who possessed a vast knowledge of European history, were determined not to create a legal basis for a standing army. The founding fathers believed that the stand- ing armies belonging to royalty were responsible for the endless bloody wars that plagued Europe. -
Social-Property Relations, Class-Conflict and The
Historical Materialism 19.4 (2011) 129–168 brill.nl/hima Social-Property Relations, Class-Conflict and the Origins of the US Civil War: Towards a New Social Interpretation* Charles Post City University of New York [email protected] Abstract The origins of the US Civil War have long been a central topic of debate among historians, both Marxist and non-Marxist. John Ashworth’s Slavery, Capitalism, and Politics in the Antebellum Republic is a major Marxian contribution to a social interpretation of the US Civil War. However, Ashworth’s claim that the War was the result of sharpening political and ideological – but not social and economic – contradictions and conflicts between slavery and capitalism rests on problematic claims about the rôle of slave-resistance in the dynamics of plantation-slavery, the attitude of Northern manufacturers, artisans, professionals and farmers toward wage-labour, and economic restructuring in the 1840s and 1850s. An alternative social explanation of the US Civil War, rooted in an analysis of the specific path to capitalist social-property relations in the US, locates the War in the growing contradiction between the social requirements of the expanded reproduction of slavery and capitalism in the two decades before the War. Keywords origins of capitalism, US Civil War, bourgeois revolutions, plantation-slavery, agrarian petty- commodity production, independent-household production, merchant-capital, industrial capital The Civil War in the United States has been a major topic of historical debate for almost over 150 years. Three factors have fuelled scholarly fascination with the causes and consequences of the War. First, the Civil War ‘cuts a bloody gash across the whole record’ of ‘the American . -
Law of Armed Conflict
Lesson 1 THE LAW OF ARMED CONFLICT Basic knowledge International Committee of the Red Cross Unit for Relations with Armed and Security Forces 19 Avenue de la Paix 1202 Geneva, Switzerland T +41 22 734 60 01 F +41 22 733 20 57 E-mail: [email protected] www.icrc.org Original: English – June 2002 INTRODUCTION TO THE LAW OF ARMED CONFLICT BASIC KNOWLEDGE LESSON 1 [ Slide 2] AIM [ Slide 3] The aim of this lesson is to introduce the topic to the class, covering the following main points: 1. Background: setting the scene. 2. The need for compliance. 3. How the law evolved and its main components. 4. When does the law apply? 5. The basic principles of the law. INTRODUCTION TO THE LAW OF ARMED CONFLICT 1. BACKGROUND: SETTING THE SCENE Today we begin a series of lectures on the law of armed conflict, which is also known as the law of war, international humanitarian law, or simply IHL. To begin, I’d like to take a guess at what you’re thinking right now. Some of you are probably thinking that this is an ideal opportunity to catch up on some well-earned rest. “Thank goodness I’m not on the assault course or on manoeuvres. This is absolutely marvellous. I can switch off and let this instructor ramble on for 45 minutes. I know all about the Geneva Conventions anyway – the law is part of my culture and our military traditions. I really don't need to listen to all this legal ‘mumbo jumbo’.” The more sceptical and cynical among you might well be thinking along the lines of a very famous orator of ancient Rome – Cicero. -
LOVE Reusable Bags Line Is the CHILL SET
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“Never Was I So Depressed”
The Army of Northern Virginia in the Gettysburg Campaign “Never Was I So Depressed” James Longstreet and Pickett’s Charge Karlton D. Smith On July 24, 1863, Lt. Gen. James Longstreet wrote a private letter to his uncle, Augusts Baldwin Longstreet. In discussing his role in the Gettysburg Campaign, the general stated: General Lee chose the plan adopted, and he is the person appointed to chose and to order. I consider it a part of my duty to express my views to the commanding general. If he approves and adopts them it is well; if he does not, it is my duty to adopt his views, and to execute his orders as faithfully as if they were my own. While clearly not approving Lee’s plan of attack on July 3, Longstreet did everything he could, both before and during the attack, to ensure its success.1 Born in 1821, James Longstreet was an 1842 graduate of West Point. An “Old Army” regular, Longstreet saw extensive front line combat service in the Mexican War in both the northern and southern theaters of operations. Longstreet led detachments that helped to capture two of the Mexican forts guarding Monterey and was involved in the street fighting in the city. At Churubusco, Longstreet planted the regimental colors on the walls of the fort and saw action at Casa Marta, near Molino del Ray. On August 13, 1847, Longstreet was wounded during the assault on Chapaltepec while “in the act of discharging the piece of a wounded man." The same report noted that during the action, "He was always in front with the colors. -
Cyber War, Cybered Conflict, and the Maritime Domain Peter Dombrowski
Naval War College Review Volume 67 Article 7 Number 2 Spring 2014 Cyber War, Cybered Conflict, and the Maritime Domain Peter Dombrowski Chris C. Demchak Follow this and additional works at: https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/nwc-review Recommended Citation Dombrowski, Peter and Demchak, Chris C. (2014) "Cyber War, Cybered Conflict, and the Maritime Domain," Naval War College Review: Vol. 67 : No. 2 , Article 7. Available at: https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/nwc-review/vol67/iss2/7 This Article is brought to you for free and open access by the Journals at U.S. Naval War College Digital Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in Naval War College Review by an authorized editor of U.S. Naval War College Digital Commons. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Dombrowski and Demchak: Cyber War, Cybered Conflict, and the Maritime Domain CYBER WAR, CYBERED CONFLICT, AND THE MARITIME DOMAIN Peter Dombrowski and Chris C. Demchak t has been well over a decade since the first “prophets” of information warfare proclaimed a new age of conflict fought not just on air, sea, and land but with 1 Ielectrons in what came to be known as “cyberspace�” Since these early predic- tions, many incidents have confirmed that criminals, random hackers, and government-sanctioned specialists can wreak havoc on governments, military communications systems, and corporations� The Stuxnet worm alone helped delay—by months, perhaps years—the long-standing efforts of Iran to acquire sufficient nuclear material to build nuclear weapons�2 Recent -
SUMMIT Packing [Date] Everything You Need, Nothing You Don’T
SUMMIT Packing [Date] Everything you need, nothing you don’t. Let’s get started. Backpacking is an art; don’t let our stinky clothes fool you. There is a purpose behind the bandanas, the itchy socks, and almost every other little gadget we bring on the trail with us. A well-packed backpack is like a Swiss army knife – small, versatile, light, and fast. There is something amazing about putting on a backpack and realizing that everything that you need to SUMMIT survive is right there on your back. So if it is your first time out or you are well-seasoned trail crushin’ machine, below you’ll find some rules on what to bring on your SUMMIT experience. Appreciate the approach, Anticipate adversity Absorb the adventure. The Essentials. Clothing Options • 2 sweat-wicking t-shirts • wicking underwear • quick dry shorts • long sleeve shirt • rain jacket (mandatory) • rain pants (optional) Why No Cotton? • hat/sunglasses Cotton may feel?? comfortable for a Feet bit, however once the fabric gets wet, it is very difficult to dry. Another downside to cotton is • hiking boots, NO sneakers/ that once it becomes wet, it loses tennis shoes many of its insulating properties, rendering the fabric almost • socks (synthetic or wool) useless. • NO COTTON • closed-toe camp shoes • crocks, sanuks, other closed toe sandals. Utensils etc. On the trail, it is useful to have: -A mug (for morning tea/coffee, etc.) -Some bowl/spoon/mess kit combo. DON’T FORGET -tooth brush/ paste -other personal sanitary items 2 LET’S TALK GEAR. The Pack: Other Things: -no less than a 65 L Backpacking pack. -
The American Civil War: a War of Logistics
THE AMERICAN CIVIL WAR: A WAR OF LOGISTICS Franklin M. Welter A Thesis Submitted to the Graduate College of Bowling Green State University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF ARTS December 2015 Committee: Rebecca Mancuso, Advisor Dwayne Beggs © 2015 Franklin M. Welter All Rights Reserved iii ABSTRACT Rebecca Mancuso, Advisor The American Civil War was the first modern war. It was fought with weapons capable of dealing death on a scale never before seen. It was also the first war which saw the widespread use of the railroad. Across the country men, materials, and supplies were transported along the iron rails which industrial revolution swept in. Without the railroads, the Union would have been unable to win the war. All of the resources, men, and materials available to the North mean little when they cannot be shipped across the great expanse which was the North during the Civil War. The goals of this thesis are to examine the roles and issues faced by seemingly independent people in very different situations during the war, and to investigate how the problems which these people encountered were overcome. The first chapter, centered in Ohio, gives insight into the roles which noncombatants played in the process. Farmers, bakers, and others behind the lines. Chapter two covers the journey across the rails, the challenges faced, and how they were overcome. This chapter looks at how those in command handled the railroad, how it affected the battles, especially Gettysburg, and how the railroads were defended over the course of the war, something which had never before needed to be considered. -
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2019 OC Fair
Pies, Cheesecakes, Yeast & Quick Breads 2019 OC Fair 2019 IMPORTANT DATES to remember Online registration opens February 4 - OC Fair runs July 12- August 11, 2019 In-Person Entry Help Days ....................Monday & Tuesday, May 20 - 21, 11 a.m. - 5 p.m. Entry Deadline ............................Monday, July 15, by midnight Entry Delivery ..............................Tuesday, July 23, 7 - 9:30 a.m. Awards Ceremony .......................................Saturday, August 10, 11:30 a.m. - 1 p.m. CONTACT Pamela Wnuck, Culinary Arts Program Coordinator Office (714) 708-1621 [email protected] 88 Fair Drive, Costa Mesa, CA 92626 2019 Pies, Cheesecakes, Yeast & Quick Breads TABLE OF CONTENTS Rules ............................................................................................................................... 1 Eligibility / Entry Limit / Exhibitor Ticket ............................................2 How to Enter / Help with Entering ..........................................................3 Entry Delivery ...........................................................................................................4 Judging .........................................................................................................................5 Awards / Awards Ceremony ........................................................................6 Adult Divisions ...................................................................................................... 7-9 Division 1060 Quick Breads Division 1061 Muffins, Biscuits & Scones -
A Taste of Food in the Civil War
Ellie Schweiker Jolene Onorati Manning school A Taste of Food in the Civil War What’s the way to keep a soldier alive? Strategy? Weaponry? Medicine? Or is it something as basic as food? While many of us take our meals for granted, the Civil War was impacted by the distribution and intake of food. Contrary to popular belief, most Union soldiers had plenty of food. The restrictions experienced by both the Union and Confederate soldiers were the types of food available during the civil war. The army with the soldiers well nourished gained an advantage. Societal norms regarding who prepared the food was also a factor and differed between slave states and free states. Without kitchens with experienced chefs or slaves, soldiers had to cope with the unvaried and insufficient rations they received. As the war began, Union soldiers started to realize the bleak reality of the food they were given. The United States Sanitary Commission, also known as Sanitary, supported and supervised all food allocation in the North. Captain James Sanderson was a notable volunteer who worked for the Sanitary. He noticed the importance of food in a man’s body and how advantageous an ablebodied man can be. After authoring the first cookbook distributed to soldiers, Sanderson helped raise awareness about meals on the battlefield. In Sanderson’s cookbook it was evident he was passionate about soldiers’ nutrition on the battlefield. “Remember that beans, badly boiled, kill more than bullets; and fat is more fatal than powder. In cooking, more than in anything else in this world, always make haste slowly.