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Policy Guidelines for Integrated Sustainable Transport Planning to Meet Greenhouse Gas Targets for Wellington, New Zealand An

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Policy Guidelines for Integrated Sustainable Transport Planning to Meet Greenhouse Gas Targets for Wellington, New Zealand An “Policy Guidelines for Integrated Sustainable Transport Planning to meet Greenhouse Gas Targets for Wellington, New Zealand and Possible Effects on the Built Environment” Rehan P. Shaikh School of Architecture Faculty of Architecture and Design Victoria University Wellington. POLICY GUIDELINES FOR INTEGRATED SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORT PLANNING TO MEET GREENHOUSE GAS TARGETS FOR WELLINGTON, NEW ZEALAND AND POSSIBLE EFFECTS ON THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT By Rehan Pervez Shaikh Primary Supervisor; Prof. Robert Vale Secondary Supervisor; Dr. Nigel Isaacs A thesis submitted to Victoria University of Wellington in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy School of Architecture Faculty of Architecture and Design Victoria University of Wellington New Zealand 2019 “We can’t solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them” Albert Einstein Abstract The increasing concentration of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the Earth's atmosphere is resulting in an increase in the temperature of the Earth. The accumulation of GHGs is due to emissions from burning of fossil fuels for energy generation and transportation, from industrial and manufacturing processes, as well as from agriculture and other activities. To meet the requirements of the Paris Climate Agreement, to which New Zealand is a signatory, will require emissions to be cut by at least 80% from current levels by or before 2050. The transport sector through its reliance on oil accounts for approximately 15% of overall greenhouse gas emissions. Global CO2 emissions from transport have grown by 45% from 1990 to 2007. At the same time the International Energy Agency (2013) state that by 2050 under a Business-as-Usual scenario global urban passenger mobility will more than double. Around half of the global population is now living in urban regions, i.e. where the environment is largely comprised of buildings and their connecting infrastructure, and this same half contributes 70% of global carbon emissions while more than 60% of the global gross domestic product is created by the revenue of only 600 cities. In order to see whether the demands for transport and the requirement of the Paris Agreement can be met simultaneously, the approach in this study is to establish goals for CO2 emissions reduction together with Business-as-Usual as a benchmark, and then to see how, and the extent to which, existing mobility services for the city of Wellington could be supplied within these targets. The forms of transport that might be needed for provision of these mobility services are also described. The bottom line of this study is that we are dealing with a long run problem and now is the time to think of what structure (in terms of built environment, technological improvement and behavioural changes) should be adopted for Wellington's transport at the earliest possible time since this structure will determine energy and emissions intensities for many years to come. While it may not be desirable or feasible to entirely remove motor vehicles for the sake of sustainability the baseline situation (Business-As-Usual) should not be permitted as much acceleration as it is currently showing. Improving vehicle efficiencies, substituting lower carbon fuels for existing fossil fuels, shifting and avoiding strategies, human behavioural improvements, and national, regional and local policy frameworks all need to work together i for mitigation of emissions. Coordinated policies within the transport portfolio, combining land use and transport agencies are needed which will produce outcomes perhaps only after 10 to 20 years to meet objectives of the sustainable transport journey towards a greener future. This research explores the possibility of significantly lower emission urban transport without significantly curtailing mobility services in terms of per capita distance travelled while meeting the overall level of emissions that will satisfy the requirements of the Paris Climate Agreement. It does this for a single city in a particular geographic location but its findings have implications for cities across the world. ii Acknowledgements First and foremost, I would like to praise Almighty God and His ways for the countless showers of blessings He has bestowed upon me. I would like to acknowledge the guidance, support, insights, and enthusiasm of my primary supervisor Professor Robert Vale and my secondary supervisor Dr Nigel Isaacs. Without their patient instruction, suggestions, valuable comments, corrections as well as many other inputs into this thesis, I could, perhaps, not have brought this ship to port. They not only gave many valuable comments and advice from their abundant experiences in research but also enlightened me and my future career with their rigorous academic and research approach. I would also like to acknowledge my sincere thanks to all those who helped me in the research for my PhD study and thesis writing. Without their kind help and suggestions I would not have been able to complete the task smoothly. We are lucky to have a dynamic and energetic dean Prof Marc Aurel Schnabel leading the faculty. In addition, I am grateful to Prof Regan Potangaroa, A.Prof Andrew Charleson and Dr Geoff Thomas with whom I have been engaged in tutoring and marking at the university besides doing my PhD and from whom I have had the opportunity to keep up to date with New Zealand trends of structural analysis and building codes of construction. Essentially, I have been enlightened by the generosity of Prof Dr Sarosh H. Lodi and Prof Dr Mir Shabbar Ali during my teaching and professional career. I am also beholden to Prof Dr Khalifa Q. Laghari who has been morally supporting and encouraging from my undergraduate days. At the end of this energetic adventure, I would like to particularly thank Victoria University of Wellington through Victoria Research Trust for awarding me the Victoria Doctoral Scholarship. Due to this financial support I have been able to concentrate solely on my study. Last but most importantly, I acknowledge the support I have been receiving from my loving and caring wife Shaista, elder son Ayan and younger son Shayan. To them I say thank you for the astonishing support you have rendered whilst I focused on finding solutions to sustainability research questions with the hope that my children and all other children and their children will have a more sustainable future. iii Dedication This thesis is dedicated to my (late) father Ramzan Shaikh and my (late) mother Zubaida Ramzan (May Allah rest their souls in eternal peace), who always had a giant vision in their lives and who taught me always to think above the sky’s limits. I have just attempted the first step. Without their sacrifices, financial and moral support from my cradle to getting to University I would be nothing. I would like to present this thesis as a gift to them. iv List of contents Abstract ........................................................................................................................................ i Acknowledgements..................................................................................................................... iii Dedication .................................................................................................................................. iv List of tables ............................................................................................................................... ix List of figures .............................................................................................................................. xi List of Abbreviations .................................................................................................................. xii Chapter 1 | Introduction .............................................................................................................. 1 1.1 Research aim ................................................................................................................................. 2 1.2 Research scope ............................................................................................................................. 3 1.3 Significance ................................................................................................................................... 5 1.4 Structure ....................................................................................................................................... 7 Chapter 2 |Greenhouse gases, CO2 emissions and emissions from transportation ........................ 11 2.1 Natural temperature phenomenon ............................................................................................ 12 2.2 Global warming ........................................................................................................................... 14 2.3 Greenhouse gases and CO2 emissions ........................................................................................ 16 2.4 Emissions from transportation ................................................................................................... 18 2.5 Why the focus on carbon emissions? ......................................................................................... 20 2.6 Transport and climate change .................................................................................................... 21 2.7 Stabilisation and its cost ............................................................................................................
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