InterdisciplinaryInterdisciplinary Vision:Vision: 2525 YearsYears ofof WorkWork inin ProgressProgress
KimberlyKimberly M.M. ThompsonThompson TopicsTopics
2525 yearsyears ofof SRA!SRA! LookingLooking backback See Thompson KM, Deisler PD, and Schwing D. “Interdisciplinary vision: The first 25 years of the Society for Risk Analysis (SRA), 1980-2005.” Risk Analysis 2005; 25(6):1333-1386. LookingLooking aheadahead
Note: All cartoons that I showed in my talk appear in Thompson, K Risk In Perspective: Insight and Humor in the Age of Risk Management (AORM, 2004). I showed them with the permission of the copyright holders. Please see the book if you are looking for these. SRASRA “The Society for Risk Analysis (SRA) provides an open forum for anyone interested in risk analysis”
“Risk analysis is broadly defined to include risk assessment, risk characterization, risk communication, risk management, and policy relating to risk. Our interests include risks to human health and the environment, both built and natural. We consider threats from physical, chemical, and biological agents and from a variety of human activities as wellwell asas natural events. We analyze risks of concern to individuals, to public and private sector organizations, and to society at various geographic scales. Our membership is multidisciplinary and international.”
From www.sra.org BirthBirth andand growthgrowth
RobertRobert B.B. CummingCumming identifiedidentified thethe needneed forfor riskrisk researchersresearchers andand practitionerspractitioners toto havehave aa placeplace toto publishpublish theirtheir workwork SeriesSeries ofof organizationalorganizational meetingsmeetings heldheld atat thethe NationalNational AcademyAcademy ofof SciencesSciences CertificateCertificate ofof IncorporationIncorporation dateddated AugustAugust 28,28, 19801980 FirstFirst issueissue ofof RiskRisk AnalysisAnalysis,, MarchMarch 19811981 FirstFirst businessbusiness meetingmeeting occurredoccurred atat NationalNational AcademyAcademy ofof SciencesSciences onon JuneJune 1,1, 19811981 MultipleMultiple firstsfirsts
FirstFirst issueissue ofof RISKRISK NewsletterNewsletter,, MarchMarch 19811981 FirstFirst picturepicture printedprinted inin newsletternewsletter 2(2)2(2) (1982)(1982) FirstFirst andand onlyonly logologo Growth in SRA Membership
2500
2000
1500
1000 Number of Individual Members ofIndividual Number
500
0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Year Countries represented by individual member, 1980-2005 Argentina El Salvador Luxembourg Senegal Australia Finland Macedonia Singapore Austria France Malaysia Slovenia Belgium Germany Mexico South Africa Bahamas Greece Netherlands South Korea Belarus Hong Kong New Zealand Spain Bolivia Hungary Nigeria Sweden Bulgaria India Norway Switzerland Brazil Ireland Pakistan Taiwan Canada Israel Peru Thailand Chile Italy Philippines Tunisia Columbia Jamaica Poland Turkey Costa Rica Japan Portugal Ukraine Croatia Korea Republic of China United Kingdom Czech Republic Kuwait Romania United States Denmark Latvia Russia Yugoslavia Dominican Republic Lithuania Saudi Arabia Zimbabwe OrganizationsOrganizations thatthat everever joinedjoined asas aa SustainingSustaining Member,Member, 19801980--20052005
American Chemistry Council Dupont Monsanto American Petroleum Institute EA Engineering Services MRC Inst. Amoco Corporation EG&G Idaho PLG, Inc. Arco Corp Electric Power Research Institute Procter and Gamble Arthur D. Little EPA Resources for the Future BP Oil Exxon BioMedical RiskFocus Canadian Aviation Safety Board Ford Motor Company RJ Reynolds Chemical Manufacturing Association General Motors Research Labs Rohm & Haas Chevron Gillette Company SAIC Clement Associates Hercules, Inc Sciences International Concurrent Technologies Corp Hershey Foods Shell Oil Corning Hazleton Inc Hoffman LaRoche Stauffer Chemical Company Covington & Burling Klemm Analysis The Coca-Cola Company Decision Focus Mobil Oil The Sapphire Group Dow Chemical Co StructuralStructural growthgrowth Sections:Sections: SRASRA--EuropeEurope (1987),(1987), SRASRA--JapanJapan (1988)(1988) ChaptersChapters Growth in Chapters
25
20
15
10 NumberChapters of
5
0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Year SpecialtySpecialty GroupsGroups
First “Topical Section” on Global Risk Analysis started in 1989 (now gone), Space Group also now gone Called “Interest Groups” in 1990, renamed “Specialty Groups” in 1991 by Council Initial leader (Chair, President, or Spokesperson) Group Title Year Founded Initial Leader Global Risk Analysis (now defunct) 1989 Rob Coppock Exposure Assessment 1990 Paul Price Risk Communication 1990 Ann Fisher Engineering 1990 Bill Gekler Space (now defunct) 1990 Hatice Cullingford Ecological Risk Assessment 1991 Larry Barnthouse Dose-Response 1994 Michael Dourson Food/Water Safety Risk 1996 Michael D. McElvaine Risk, Science and Law 1996 Wayne Roth-Nelson Economics & Benefits Analysis 2002 Robert Scharff Decision Analysis 2005 Igor Linkov RiskRisk AnalysisAnalysis
Total Number of Pages in Risk Analysis by Year
1800 4 issues per year 6 issues per year
1600
1400
1200
1000
800 Number of Pages Number
600
400
200
0 1980 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Year Types of Contributions Published in Risk Analysis by Year
160
140
120
100
Editorial* 80 Review
Number Article
60 *Editorial also includes commentaries 40 and letters
20
0 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Year Journal Articles in Risk Analysis by Scientific Discipline and Year
160
140
120
100
Social 80 Physical Life
60 Number of journal articles of journal Number
40
20
0 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Year Distribution of Journal Article Lengths
180
Average pages per article = 10.5 160
140
120
100
80 Number of Articles
60
40
20
0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 38 45 Number of Pages in Article MostMost prolificprolific:: 2525 SRASRA membersmembers withwith 1313 oror moremore contributionscontributions toto RiskRisk AnalysisAnalysis
– Paul Slovic (38) – Howard Kunreuther (19) – Curtis Travis (31) – Louis Anthony “Tony” Cox, Jr. (18) – RK White (29) – Stan Kaplan (18) – Yacov Haimes (28) – Daniel Krewski (17) – Paul Moskowitz (28) – Lester Lave (17) – David Gaylor (27) – M. Elisabeth Paté-Cornell (17) – David Burmaster (25) – Dale Hattis (16) – Baruch Fischhoff (24) – Tom McKone (16) – M. Granger Morgan (24) – Betty Anderson (15) – Branden Johnson (23) – Ralph Kodell (15) – Kenny Crump (21) – JJ Chen (14) – John D. Graham (19) – Kim Thompson (13) – James Hammitt (19) RISKRISK NewsletterNewsletter
90
80
70
60
50
40 Number of pages Number
30 Published 1 issue in 1984, 2 issues in 1981-1983 and 1985, 20 3 issues in 1987-1991 and 1999, and 4 issues in 1986, 10 1992-1998, and 2000-2005
0 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 Year LeadershipLeadership 2525 PresidentsPresidents 8181 SRASRA membersmembers servedserved onon SRASRA CouncilCouncil 7676 FellowsFellows AwardsAwards – 25 Distinguished Achievement Awardees – 28 Outstanding Service Awardees – 10 Outstanding Practitioner Awardees – 10 Chauncey Starr Awardees (Young Risk Analyst Award) – 3 Presidential Recognition Awardees ChallengesChallenges DefiningDefining termsterms DistinguishingDistinguishing riskrisk analysisanalysis asas anan academicacademic disciplinediscipline andand certificationcertification EstablishingEstablishing SRASRA policypolicy statementsstatements PerformingPerforming workwork supportedsupported byby grantsgrants SpinningSpinning offoff ofof clustersclusters MeasuringMeasuring impactimpact ThinkingThinking strategicallystrategically GlobalizingGlobalizing AcknowledgmentsAcknowledgments
PaulPaul F.F. DeislerDeisler,, Jr.Jr. andand RichardRichard C.C. SchwingSchwing JeanneJeanne KaspersonKasperson MaryMary WalchukWalchuk DickDick BurkBurk andand BurkBurk && AssociatesAssociates TheThe many,many, manymany membersmembers whowho contributedcontributed LookingLooking aheadahead Here I talked about why I believe that we live in what I call the “Age of Risk Management” using words and cartoons directly from the Risk in Perspective book I provided some recent examples of where risk analysts are needed and where we need to remember history For those interested in the historical details of the flooding of New Orleans, please read the excerpt called "Atchafalaya" from John McPhee's book called The Control of Nature, which appears in The New Yorker archive (http://www.newyorker.com/archive/content/?050912fr_archive01) Those interested in the FEMA chart I showed should see: http://www.fema.gov/about/what.shtm Finally, I presented Fischhoff’s “Developmental Stages of Risk Management” (Fischhoff, B. “Risk perceptions and communication unplugged: Twenty years of progress.” Risk Analysis 1995; 15(2):137-144.) SRASRA’’ss role?role?
Large and growing demand for risk analysts – Training, Education, Research, and Practice Need to think about the BIG picture “…[practitioners of quantitative uncertainty analysis] have risked making ourselves akin to mousetrap salesmen who beleaguer the consumer with engineering details before he even understands that if the gadget works, the result will be a house free of mice.” (Finkel, AM. From “Stepping out of your own shadow: a didactic example of how facing uncertainty can improve decision- making.” Risk Analysis, 1994; 14(5):751-61. Encourage better choices ThankThank you!you!