Using Hurricane Ivan As a Modern Analog In
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Wind Speed-Damage Correlation in Hurricane Katrina
JP 1.36 WIND SPEED-DAMAGE CORRELATION IN HURRICANE KATRINA Timothy P. Marshall* Haag Engineering Co. Dallas, Texas 1. INTRODUCTION According to Knabb et al. (2006), Hurricane Katrina Mehta et al. (1983) and Kareem (1984) utilized the was the costliest hurricane disaster in the United States to concept of wind speed-damage correlation after date. The hurricane caused widespread devastation from Hurricanes Frederic and Alicia, respectively. In essence, Florida to Louisiana to Mississippi making a total of three each building acts like an anemometer that records the landfalls before dissipating over the Ohio River Valley. wind speed. A range of failure wind speeds can be The storm damaged or destroyed many properties, determined by analyzing building damage whereas especially near the coasts. undamaged buildings can provide upper bounds to the Since the hurricane, various agencies have conducted wind speeds. In 2006, WSEC developed a wind speed- building damage assessments to estimate the wind fields damage scale entitled the EF-scale, named after the late that occurred during the storm. The National Oceanic Dr. Ted Fujita. The author served on this committee. and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA, 2005a) Wind speed-damage correlation is useful especially conducted aerial and ground surveys and published a when few ground-based wind speed measurements are wind speed map. Likewise, the Federal Emergency available. Such was the case in Hurricane Katrina when Management Agency (FEMA, 2006) conducted a similar most of the automated stations failed before the eye study and produced another wind speed map. Both reached the coast. However, mobile towers were studies used a combination of wind speed-damage deployed by Texas Tech University (TTU) at Slidell, LA correlation, actual wind measurements, as well as and Bay St. -
Multi-Scale, Multi-Proxy Investigation of Late Holocene Tropical Cyclone Activity in the Western North Atlantic Basin
Multi-Scale, Multi-Proxy Investigation of Late Holocene Tropical Cyclone Activity in the Western North Atlantic Basin François Oliva Thesis submitted to the Faculty of Graduate and Postdoctoral Studies in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Doctorate of Philosophy in Geography Department of Geography, Environment and Geomatics Faculty of Arts University of Ottawa Supervisors: Dr. André E. Viau Dr. Matthew C. Peros Thesis Committee: Dr. Luke Copland Dr. Denis Lacelle Dr. Michael Sawada Dr. Francine McCarthy © François Oliva, Ottawa, Canada, 2017 Abstract Paleotempestology, the study of past tropical cyclones (TCs) using geological proxy techniques, is a growing discipline that utilizes data from a broad range of sources. Most paleotempestological studies have been conducted using “established proxies”, such as grain-size analysis, loss-on-ignition, and micropaleontological indicators. More recently researchers have been applying more advanced geochemical analyses, such as X-ray fluorescence (XRF) core scanning and stable isotopic geochemistry to generate new paleotempestological records. This is presented as a four article-type thesis that investigates how changing climate conditions have impacted the frequency and paths of tropical cyclones in the western North Atlantic basin on different spatial and temporal scales. The first article (Chapter 2; Oliva et al., 2017, Prog Phys Geog) provides an in-depth and up-to- date literature review of the current state of paleotempestological studies in the western North Atlantic basin. The assumptions, strengths and limitations of paleotempestological studies are discussed. Moreover, this article discusses innovative venues for paleotempestological research that will lead to a better understanding of TC dynamics under future climate change scenarios. -
Significant Loss Report
NATIONAL FLOOD INSURANCE PROGRAM Bureau and Statistical Agent W-01049 3019-01 MEMORANDUM TO: Write Your Own (WYO) Principal Coordinators and NFIP Servicing Agent FROM: WYO Clearinghouse DATE: July 18, 2001 SUBJECT: Significant Loss Report Enclosed is a listing of significant flooding events that occurred between February 1978 and October 2000. Only those events that had more than 1500 losses are included on the list. These data were compiled for WYO Companies and others to use to remind their customers of the impact of past flooding events. Please use this information in your marketing efforts as you feel it is appropriate. If you have any questions, please contact your WYO Program Coordinator. Enclosure cc: Vendors, IBHS, FIPNC, WYO Standards Committee, WYO Marketing Committee, ARCHIVEDGovernment Technical Representative APRIL 2018 Suggested Routing: Claims, Marketing, Underwriting 7700 HUBBLE DRIVE • LANHAM, MD 20706 • (301) 731-5300 COMPUTER SCIENCES CORPORATION, under contract to the FEDERAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY, is the Bureau and Statistical Agent for the National Flood Insurance Program NATIONAL FLOOD INSURANCE PROGRAM SIGNIFICANT FLOOD EVENTS REPORT EVENT YEAR # PD LOSSES AMOUNT PD ($) AVG PD LOSS Massachusetts Flood Feb. 1978 Feb-78 2,195 $20,081,479 $9,149 Louisiana Flood May 1978 May-78 7,284 $43,288,709 $5,943 WV, IN, KY, OH Floods Dec 1978 Dec-78 1,879 $11,934,512 $6,352 PA, CT, MA, NJ, NY, RI Floods Jan-79 8,826 $31,487,015 $3,568 Texas Flood April 1979 Apr-79 1,897 $19,817,668 $10,447 Florida Flood April 1979 Apr-79 -
Tropical Cyclone Report for Hurricane Ivan
Tropical Cyclone Report Hurricane Ivan 2-24 September 2004 Stacy R. Stewart National Hurricane Center 16 December 2004 Updated 27 May 2005 to revise damage estimate Updated 11 August 2011 to revise damage estimate Ivan was a classical, long-lived Cape Verde hurricane that reached Category 5 strength three times on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale (SSHS). It was also the strongest hurricane on record that far south east of the Lesser Antilles. Ivan caused considerable damage and loss of life as it passed through the Caribbean Sea. a. Synoptic History Ivan developed from a large tropical wave that moved off the west coast of Africa on 31 August. Although the wave was accompanied by a surface pressure system and an impressive upper-level outflow pattern, associated convection was limited and not well organized. However, by early on 1 September, convective banding began to develop around the low-level center and Dvorak satellite classifications were initiated later that day. Favorable upper-level outflow and low shear environment was conducive for the formation of vigorous deep convection to develop and persist near the center, and it is estimated that a tropical depression formed around 1800 UTC 2 September. Figure 1 depicts the “best track” of the tropical cyclone’s path. The wind and pressure histories are shown in Figs. 2a and 3a, respectively. Table 1 is a listing of the best track positions and intensities. Despite a relatively low latitude (9.7o N), development continued and it is estimated that the cyclone became Tropical Storm Ivan just 12 h later at 0600 UTC 3 September. -
Puerto Rico Post-2017 Hurricane Season: Initial Insights & Outlook November 2017
Puerto Rico Post-2017 Hurricane Season: Initial Insights & Outlook November 2017 First Thoughts April 2006 to August 2017, representing a loss of roughly 300,000 private and public-sector jobs, the unemployment rate has remained in double-digits for decades, and the labor force participation rate is In the aftermath of a catastrophic natural disaster like the one below 40%.3 A largely obsolete economic model, an underperforming experienced in Puerto Rico during September 2017, an acute public sector with weak public institutions, loss of competitiveness sense of uncertainty often takes hold of the affected people and in an increasingly globalized marketplace, burdensome costs of organizations. Households, business firms, nonprofit entities, and doing business, and poor regulatory quality that hamper growth and the public sector need timely, objective, accurate and reliable productivity, are some of the main factors that explain Puerto Rico’s information and insights to better inform their strategic planning economic stagnation.4 and other decision-making processes. This special V2A issue, the first of a series of issues, seeks to narrow this information gap Further intensifying Puerto Rico’s economic and humanitarian by providing a preliminary assessment and outlook under this woes is the government’s poor fiscal health and liquidity risks, new Post-Hurricane María reality. It also serves as a succinct, yet which limit the implementation of traditional countercyclical fiscal comprehensive one-stop read containing up-to-date and relevant measures. Overburdened by an over $70 billion debt load and an information from a variety of sources. additional $50 billion in unfunded pension liabilities, Puerto Rico filed for bankruptcy protection on May 1, 2017 under Title III of While the challenges ahead for Puerto Rico cannot be overstated the Puerto Rico Oversight, Management and Economic Stability and the post-disaster recovery and reconstruction process will likely Act (PROMESA) enacted on June 30, 2016. -
Reconstruction of Prehistoric Landfall Frequencies of Catastrophic Hurricanes in Northwestern Florida from Lake Sediment Records
Quaternary Research 54, 238–245 (2000) doi:10.1006/qres.2000.2166, available online at http://www.idealibrary.com on Reconstruction of Prehistoric Landfall Frequencies of Catastrophic Hurricanes in Northwestern Florida from Lake Sediment Records Kam-biu Liu Department of Geography and Anthropology, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, Louisiana 70803 and Miriam L. Fearn Department of Earth Sciences, University of South Alabama, Mobile, Alabama 36688 Received December 10, 1998 proxy record of catastrophic hurricane strikes during the late Sediment cores from Western Lake provide a 7000-yr record of Holocene (Liu and Fearn, 1993). Lake Shelby is the only coastal environmental changes and catastrophic hurricane land- available millennial record of catastrophic hurricane landfalls falls along the Gulf Coast of the Florida Panhandle. Using Hur- for the Gulf of Mexico coast. Here we present a new, high- ricane Opal as a modern analog, we infer that overwash sand resolution record that spans the past 7000 yr from the Gulf layers occurring near the center of the lake were caused by cata- Coast of northwestern Florida. strophic hurricanes of category 4 or 5 intensity. Few catastrophic hurricanes struck the Western Lake area during two quiescent periods 3400–5000 and 0–1000 14C yr B.P. The landfall probabil- THE STUDY SITE ities increased dramatically to ca. 0.5% per yr during an “hyper- active” period from 1000–3400 14C yr B.P., especially in the first Western Lake (30° 19Ј 31Љ N, 86° 09Ј 12Љ W) is separated millennium A.D. The millennial-scale variability in catastrophic from the Gulf of Mexico by a 150- to 200-m-wide barrier hurricane landfalls along the Gulf Coast is probably controlled by beach (Fig. -
Hurricane and Tropical Storm
State of New Jersey 2014 Hazard Mitigation Plan Section 5. Risk Assessment 5.8 Hurricane and Tropical Storm 2014 Plan Update Changes The 2014 Plan Update includes tropical storms, hurricanes and storm surge in this hazard profile. In the 2011 HMP, storm surge was included in the flood hazard. The hazard profile has been significantly enhanced to include a detailed hazard description, location, extent, previous occurrences, probability of future occurrence, severity, warning time and secondary impacts. New and updated data and figures from ONJSC are incorporated. New and updated figures from other federal and state agencies are incorporated. Potential change in climate and its impacts on the flood hazard are discussed. The vulnerability assessment now directly follows the hazard profile. An exposure analysis of the population, general building stock, State-owned and leased buildings, critical facilities and infrastructure was conducted using best available SLOSH and storm surge data. Environmental impacts is a new subsection. 5.8.1 Profile Hazard Description A tropical cyclone is a rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or sub-tropical waters and has a closed low-level circulation. Tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes are all considered tropical cyclones. These storms rotate counterclockwise in the northern hemisphere around the center and are accompanied by heavy rain and strong winds (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration [NOAA] 2013a). Almost all tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic basin (which includes the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea) form between June 1 and November 30 (hurricane season). August and September are peak months for hurricane development. -
10R.3 the Tornado Outbreak Across the North Florida Panhandle in Association with Hurricane Ivan
10R.3 The Tornado Outbreak across the North Florida Panhandle in association with Hurricane Ivan Andrew I. Watson* Michael A. Jamski T.J. Turnage NOAA/National Weather Service Tallahassee, Florida Joshua R.Bowen Meteorology Department Florida State University Tallahassee, Florida Jason C. Kelley WJHG-TV Panama City, Florida 1. INTRODUCTION their mobile homes were destroyed near Blountstown, Florida. Hurricane Ivan made landfall early on the morning of 16 September 2004, just west of Overall, there were 24 tornadoes reported Gulf Shores, Alabama as a category 3 across the National Weather Service (NWS) hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Tallahassee forecast area. The office issued Scale. Approximately 117 tornadoes were 130 tornado warnings from the afternoon of 15 reported associated with Ivan across the September until just after daybreak on 16 southeast United States. Eight people were September. killed and 17 were injured by tornadoes (Storm Data 2004; Stewart 2004). The most The paper examines the convective cells significant tornadoes occurred as hurricane within the rain bands of hurricane Ivan, which Ivan approached the Florida Gulf coast on the produced these tornadoes across the Florida afternoon and evening of 15 September. Panhandle, Big Bend, and southwest Georgia. The structure of the tornadic and non-tornadic The intense outer rain bands of Ivan supercells is examined for clues on how to produced numerous supercells over portions better warn for these types of storms. This of the Florida Panhandle, Big Bend, southwest study will focus on the short-term predictability Georgia, and Gulf coastal waters. In turn, of these dangerous storms, and will these supercells spawned dozens of investigate the problem of how to reduce the tornadoes. -
Aerial Rapid Assessment of Hurricane Damages to Northern Gulf Coastal Habitats
8786 ReportScience Title and the Storms: the USGS Response to the Hurricanes of 2005 Chapter Five: Landscape5 Changes The hurricanes of 2005 greatly changed the landscape of the Gulf Coast. The following articles document the initial damage assessment from coastal Alabama to Texas; the change of 217 mi2 of coastal Louisiana to water after Katrina and Rita; estuarine damage to barrier islands of the central Gulf Coast, especially Dauphin Island, Ala., and the Chandeleur Islands, La.; erosion of beaches of western Louisiana after Rita; and the damages and loss of floodplain forest of the Pearl River Basin. Aerial Rapid Assessment of Hurricane Damages to Northern Gulf Coastal Habitats By Thomas C. Michot, Christopher J. Wells, and Paul C. Chadwick Hurricane Katrina made landfall in southeast Louisiana on August 29, 2005, and Hurricane Rita made landfall in southwest Louisiana on September 24, 2005. Scientists from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) flew aerial surveys to assess damages to natural resources and to lands owned and managed by the U.S. Department of the Interior and other agencies. Flights were made on eight dates from August Introduction 27 through October 4, including one pre-Katrina, three post-Katrina, The USGS National Wetlands and four post-Rita surveys. The Research Center (NWRC) has a geographic area surveyed history of conducting aerial rapid- extended from Galveston, response surveys to assess Tex., to Gulf Shores, hurricane damages along the Ala., and from the Gulf coastal areas of the Gulf of of Mexico shoreline Mexico and Caribbean inland 5–75 mi Sea. Posthurricane (8–121 km). -
Hurricane Waves in the Ocean
WAVE-INDUCED SURGES DURING HURRICANE OPAL Chung-Sheng Wu*, Arthur A. Taylor, Jye Chen and Wilson A. Shaffer Meteorological Development Laboratory National Weather Service/NOAA, Silver Spring, Maryland 1. INTRODUCTION Hurricanes storm surges and waves at the coastline Holliday (1977) developed a simple formula relating the have been the cause of damages in the coastal zone. cyclone’s pressure drop to maximum sustained wind for On the U.S. Gulf Coast, for example, Hurricane Opal the Western Pacific. A more general form was (1995) made landfall near the time of low tide and proposed by Holland (1980). The merit of these models resulted in severe flooding by storm surges and waves. is that they are analytical models for the surface wind Storm surge can penetrate miles inland from the coast. profile in a hurricane. A similar formulation was applied Waves ride above the surge levels, causing wave runup to the wave model in the present work. The framework and mean water level set-up. These wave effects are of the hurricane wave model is described below. significant near the landfall area and are affected by the process that hurricane approaches the coastline. 2.1 HURRICANE WIND AND STORM SURGES During 1950-1977, hurricane wave models based on Holland (1980) employed a standard pressure profile for significant wave height and period were developed (e.g. a tropical cyclone and obtained the popular gradient Bretschneider, 1957; Ross, 1976) for marine weather wind profile. Jelesnianski and Taylor (1976) assumed a prediction and offshore oil industry design. Cardone surface wind profile in the pressure equation. -
Background Hurricane Katrina
PARTPART 33 IMPACTIMPACT OFOF HURRICANESHURRICANES ONON NEWNEW ORLEANSORLEANS ANDAND THETHE GULFGULF COASTCOAST 19001900--19981998 HURRICANEHURRICANE--CAUSEDCAUSED FLOODINGFLOODING OFOF NEWNEW ORLEANSORLEANS •• SinceSince 1559,1559, 172172 hurricaneshurricanes havehave struckstruck southernsouthern LouisianaLouisiana ((ShallatShallat,, 2000).2000). •• OfOf these,these, 3838 havehave causedcaused floodingflooding inin NewNew thethe OrleansOrleans area,area, usuallyusually viavia LakeLake PonchartrainPonchartrain.. •• SomeSome ofof thethe moremore notablenotable eventsevents havehave included:included: SomeSome ofof thethe moremore notablenotable eventsevents havehave included:included: 1812,1812, 1831,1831, 1860,1860, 1915,1915, 1947,1947, 1965,1965, 1969,1969, andand 20052005.. IsaacIsaac MonroeMonroe ClineCline USWS meteorologist Isaac Monroe Cline pioneered the study of tropical cyclones and hurricanes in the early 20th Century, by recording barometric pressures, storm surges, and wind velocities. •• Cline charted barometric gradients (right) and tracked the eyes of hurricanes as they approached landfall. This shows the event of Sept 29, 1915 hitting the New Orleans area. • Storm or tidal surges are caused by lifting of the oceanic surface by abnormal low atmospheric pressure beneath the eye of a hurricane. The faster the winds, the lower the pressure; and the greater the storm surge. At its peak, Hurricane Katrina caused a surge 53 feet high under its eye as it approached the Louisiana coast, triggering a storm surge advisory of 18 to 28 feet in New Orleans (image from USA Today). StormStorm SurgeSurge •• The surge effect is minimal in the open ocean, because the water falls back on itself •• As the storm makes landfall, water is lifted onto the continent, locally elevating the sea level, much like a tsunami, but with much higher winds Images from USA Today •• Cline showed that it was then northeast quadrant of a cyclonic event that produced the greatest storm surge, in accordance with the drop in barometric pressure. -
A FAILURE of INITIATIVE Final Report of the Select Bipartisan Committee to Investigate the Preparation for and Response to Hurricane Katrina
A FAILURE OF INITIATIVE Final Report of the Select Bipartisan Committee to Investigate the Preparation for and Response to Hurricane Katrina U.S. House of Representatives 4 A FAILURE OF INITIATIVE A FAILURE OF INITIATIVE Final Report of the Select Bipartisan Committee to Investigate the Preparation for and Response to Hurricane Katrina Union Calendar No. 00 109th Congress Report 2nd Session 000-000 A FAILURE OF INITIATIVE Final Report of the Select Bipartisan Committee to Investigate the Preparation for and Response to Hurricane Katrina Report by the Select Bipartisan Committee to Investigate the Preparation for and Response to Hurricane Katrina Available via the World Wide Web: http://www.gpoacess.gov/congress/index.html February 15, 2006. — Committed to the Committee of the Whole House on the State of the Union and ordered to be printed U. S. GOVERNMEN T PRINTING OFFICE Keeping America Informed I www.gpo.gov WASHINGTON 2 0 0 6 23950 PDF For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office Internet: bookstore.gpo.gov Phone: toll free (866) 512-1800; DC area (202) 512-1800 Fax: (202) 512-2250 Mail: Stop SSOP, Washington, DC 20402-0001 COVER PHOTO: FEMA, BACKGROUND PHOTO: NASA SELECT BIPARTISAN COMMITTEE TO INVESTIGATE THE PREPARATION FOR AND RESPONSE TO HURRICANE KATRINA TOM DAVIS, (VA) Chairman HAROLD ROGERS (KY) CHRISTOPHER SHAYS (CT) HENRY BONILLA (TX) STEVE BUYER (IN) SUE MYRICK (NC) MAC THORNBERRY (TX) KAY GRANGER (TX) CHARLES W. “CHIP” PICKERING (MS) BILL SHUSTER (PA) JEFF MILLER (FL) Members who participated at the invitation of the Select Committee CHARLIE MELANCON (LA) GENE TAYLOR (MS) WILLIAM J.