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State of the Climate in 2002

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State of the Climate in 2002 STATE OF THE CLIMATE IN 2002 A. M. WAPLE AND J.H. LAWRIMORE, EDS. AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY JUNE 2003 | S1 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. Introduction ................................................................................................................................................................. 4 2. Global climate .............................................................................................................................................................. 5 a. Global surface temperature ............................................................................................................................. 5 b. Upper-air temperature ...................................................................................................................................... 5 I) Lower troposphere .................................................................................................................................... 6 II) Midtroposphere........................................................................................................................................... 6 III) Lower stratosphere ................................................................................................................................... 6 c. Global precipitation ........................................................................................................................................... 6 d. Northern Hemisphere snow cover ............................................................................................................... 8 3. Trends in trace gases ................................................................................................................................................. 9 a. Stratospheric water vapor ................................................................................................................................ 9 b. Decreases in ozone depleting halogens in the troposphere ............................................................... 10 c. Global carbon dioxide in 2002 ..................................................................................................................... 10 d. Global methane in 2002 ................................................................................................................................. 12 e. Global carbon monoxide in 2002 ................................................................................................................ 13 f. Mauna Loa solar transmission ...................................................................................................................... 14 4. The Tropics ............................................................................................................................................................... 16 a. ENSO and the tropical Pacific ....................................................................................................................... 16 I) Overview .................................................................................................................................................... 16 II) Equatorial Pacific Ocean sea surface and subsurface temperature evolution .......................... 16 III) Atmospheric circulation—Pacific basin .............................................................................................. 17 IV) The Madden–Julian oscillation and Kelvin wave activity ................................................................. 18 b. Tropical Storms ................................................................................................................................................... 19 I) Atlantic hurricane season ....................................................................................................................... 19 (i) Overview ............................................................................................................................................ 19 (ii) Seasonal activity ................................................................................................................................. 20 (iii) Landfalling U.S. tropical storms and hurricanes ........................................................................ 21 (iv) Dominant climate factors influencing the 2002 Atlantic hurricane season ....................... 22 (a) El Niño ......................................................................................................................................... 22 (b) The active multidecadal signal ................................................................................................ 23 (v) Intraseasonal hurricane variability associated with the Madden–Julian oscillation ......... 24 II) Pacific tropical storms ................................................................................................................................ 26 (i) Western North Pacific typhoon season ..................................................................................... 26 Affiliations (alphabetical by author) 8. KARIN GLEASON, JAY H. LAWRIMORE, MATTHEW MENNE, AND ANNE 1. LISA ALEXANDER AND BRIONY HORTON, Hadley Centre for Climate WAPLE (STG Inc.), NOAA, National Climatic Data Center, Prediction and Research, the Met Office, Bracknell, United Asheville, North Carolina Kingdom 9. DOUG HARDY, Climate System Research Center, University of 2. PETER AMBENJE AND OTHERS, Drought Monitoring Centre, Nairobi, Massachusetts, Amherst, Massachusetts Kenya 10. CHARLOTTE MCBRIDE, South African Weather Service, South 3. GERRY BELL AND MIKE HALPERT, NOAA/NWS/NCEP Climate Africa Prediction Center, Washington, D.C. 11. DAVID PHILLIPS, Environment Canada, Ottawa, Canada 4. O.N. BULYGINA, N.N. KORSHUNOVA, AND V.N. RAZUVAEV, All 12. ROGER PIELKE SR. AND CHRISTOPHER L. CASTRO, Colorado State Russian Research Institute of Hydrometeorological University, Fort Collins, Colorado Information, Obninsk, Russia 13. DAVID ROBINSON, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, New 5. SUZANA J. CAMARGO, BRAD LYON, AND ANJI SETH, International Jersey Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI), New York, 14. JIM SALINGER, National Institute of Water and Atmospheric New York Research, Newmarket, Auckland, New Zealand 6. JOHN CHRISTY, University of Alabama, Huntsville, Alabama 15. RUSSELL C. SCHNELL, NOAA/Climate Monitoring and 7. ARTHUR DOUGLAS, Creighton University, Nebraska Diagnostics Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado 16. ANDREW WATKINS, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia S2 | JUNE 2003 (ii) Eastern North Pacific hurricane season ...................................................................................... 29 5. The Poles ................................................................................................................................................................... 29 a. The Antarctic ..................................................................................................................................................... 29 I) South Pole ozonesondes and the ozone hole .................................................................................. 29 II) Temperature and sea ice ........................................................................................................................ 30 b. The Arctic ....................................................................................................................................................... 30 Advancing Barrow, Alaska, snow-melt date ............................................................................................. 31 6. Regional climate ....................................................................................................................................................... 32 a. North America .................................................................................................................................................. 32 I) Canada ....................................................................................................................................................... 32 (i) Winter and spring ............................................................................................................................ 33 (ii) Summer ................................................................................................................................................ 34 (a) Eastern Canada........................................................................................................................... 34 (b) Western Canada ....................................................................................................................... 34 (iii) Autumn ................................................................................................................................................ 34 II) United States .............................................................................................................................................. 35 (i) U.S. temperature ............................................................................................................................... 35 (ii) Precipitation, drought, and wildfires ...........................................................................................35 (a) The West and Texas ................................................................................................................ 37 (b) The East Coast ..........................................................................................................................
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