The future of Asia Asian flows and networks are defining the next phase of globalization Discussion paper September 2019 Authors: Oliver Tonby Jonathan Woetzel Wonsik Choi Karel Eloot Rajat Dhawan Jeongmin Seong Patti Wang McKinsey Global Institute Since its founding in 1990, the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) has sought to develop a deeper understanding of the evolving global economy. As the business and economics research arm of McKinsey & Company, MGI aims to provide leaders in the commercial, public, and social sectors with the facts and insights on which to base management and policy decisions. MGI research combines the disciplines of economics and management, employing the analytical tools of economics with the insights of business leaders. Our “micro-to-macro” methodology examines microeconomic industry trends to better understand the broad macroeconomic forces affecting business strategy and public policy. MGI’s in-depth reports have covered more than 20 countries and 30 industries. Current research focuses on six themes: productivity and growth, natural resources, labor markets, the evolution of global financial markets, the economic impact of technology and innovation, and urbanization. Recent reports have assessed the changing relationship between China and the world, the digital economy in India, the impact of AI and automation on employment, income inequality, the productivity puzzle, the economic benefits of tackling gender inequality, a new era of global competition, Chinese innovation, and digital and financial globalization. MGI is led by four McKinsey & Company senior partners: Jacques Bughin and Jonathan Woetzel, as well as James Manyika and Sven Smit, who also serve as co-chairs of MGI. Michael Chui, Susan Lund, Anu Madgavkar, Jan Mischke, Sree Ramaswamy, and Jaana Remes are MGI partners, and Mekala Krishnan and Jeongmin Seong are MGI senior fellows. Project teams are led by the MGI partners and a group of senior fellows and include consultants from McKinsey offices around the world. These teams draw on McKinsey’s global network of partners and industry and management experts. The MGI Council, which includes leaders from McKinsey offices around the world and the firm’s sector practices, includes Michael Birshan, Andrés Cadena, Sandrine Devillard, André Dua, Kweilin Ellingrud, Tarek Elmasry, Katy George, Rajat Gupta, Eric Hazan, Acha Leke, Scott Nyquist, Gary Pinkus, Sven Smit, Oliver Tonby, and Eckart Windhagen. In addition, leading economists, including Nobel laureates, advise MGI research. The partners of McKinsey fund MGI’s research; it is not commissioned by any business, government, or other institution. For further information about MGI and to download reports, please visit www.mckinsey.com/mgi. ii McKinsey Global Institute Preface The Asian Century has begun. Already the world’s largest regional economy, Asia is set to continue to grow in scale and influence. This region is at the forefront of shifting patterns of globalization, and is indeed shifting faster than the rest of the world, suggesting that it is Asia more than any other region of the world that will shape the next phase of globalization. In this paper, we build on the January 2019 McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) report Globalization in transition: The future of trade and value chains by examining Asia’s rise on eight dimensions incorporating 16 types of flow, looking at the increasing integration of the economies of the region, and highlighting the development of three powerful new Asian networks: industrialization, innovation, and culture and mobility, and the rising cities that are pivotal components of those networks. This paper is one of a series on the future of Asia, prepared in collaboration with the Asia offices of McKinsey & Company, which will all be available at https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/future-of-asia. The research was led by Oliver Tonby, McKinsey senior partner in Singapore, and chairman, McKinsey Asia; Jonathan Woetzel, McKinsey senior partner and a director of MGI in Shanghai; Wonsik Choi, McKinsey senior partner, and managing partner, Korea; Karel Eloot, McKinsey senior partner in Shanghai; Rajat Dhawan, McKinsey senior partner in Gurgaon; and Jeongmin Seong, MGI senior fellow in Shanghai. Patti Wang, a consultant in Shanghai, led the project team that comprised Takakazu Doi, Gahwan Kim, Lily Ma, Erik Rong, and Raye Qin. We are grateful to a number of MGI colleagues who were closely involved in the project, namely Jacques Bughin, Michael Chui, Shishir Gupta, Mekala Krishnan, Susan Lund, Anu Madgavkar, and James Manyika. We thank key members of MGI’s operations team including Janet Bush, MGI senior editor, who helped write and edited this report; Julie Philpot, editorial production manager; Laura Brown, Marisa Carder, and Patrick White, MGI design specialists; Lauren Meling, MGI digital editor; Cathy Gui, head of MGI external relations in Asia; and Tim Beacom, MGI knowledge specialist. We are also indebted to Kathryn Hanes, Samantha Hayden, and Kate Hegarty of Asia’s external communications team, and Meng Liu and Ziad Haider, McKinsey risk specialists in China and Asia, respectively. We are deeply grateful to our academic advisers who challenged our thinking and provided valuable guidance. We thank Martin Baily, Bernard L. Schwartz Chair in Economic Policy Development and senior fellow and director of the Business and Public Policy Initiative at the Brookings Institution; Dr. Parag Khanna, managing partner of FutureMap; Rakesh Mohan, a senior fellow at the Jackson Institute for Global Affairs at Yale University and distinguished fellow at Brookings, India; Gordon Orr, director emeritus and senior adviser to McKinsey; and Dr. Andrew Sheng, distinguished fellow of the Asia Global Institute. We thank many McKinsey and MGI colleagues who gave us the benefit of their expertise, namely Andre Andonian, Asilah Azil, Angus Dawson, Alex Dichter, David Dyer, Jose Pablo Garcia, Godart van Gendt, Dhiraj Kumar, Gautam Kumra, Glenn Leibowitz, Nick Leung, Cheryl SH Lim, Jay Lim, Diaan-Yi Lin, Jordi Lokanata, Duy Mai, Nimal Manuel, Carlos Mendes, Detlev Mohr, Xin Mok, Rohan Moorthy, Gauri Nagraj, Joe Ngai, Suchita Prasad, Kristine Romano, Sohum Sachathamakul, Cristoph Sandler, Steve Saxon, Theerachai Singhnarang, Shatetha Terdprisant, Ankit Upadhyay, Phillia Wibowo, Jackey Yu, and Lucas Zhu. The future of Asia: Asian flows and networks are defining the next phase of globalization iii This report contributes to MGI’s mission to help business and policy leaders understand the forces transforming the global economy, identify strategic locations, and prepare for the next wave of growth. As with all MGI research, this work is independent and has not been commissioned or sponsored in any way by any business, government, or other institution. While we are grateful for all the input we have received, the report and views expressed here are ours alone. We welcome your comments on this research at [email protected]. Jacques Bughin Director, McKinsey Global Institute Senior Partner, McKinsey & Company Brussels James Manyika Director and Co-chair, McKinsey Global Institute Senior Partner, McKinsey & Company San Francisco Sven Smit Director and Co-chair, McKinsey Global Institute Senior Partner, McKinsey & Company Amsterdam Jonathan Woetzel Director, McKinsey Global Institute Senior Partner, McKinsey & Company Shanghai September 2019 iv McKinsey Global Institute Contents 1. Asia—the world’s largest regional economy—matters 4 2. Asia is diverse, but also complementary 29 3. Industrialization: Asia-for-Asia supply-chain networks are emerging 37 4. Innovation: Asia is leapfrogging through multilocal networks 49 5. Culture and mobility: Asia is a growing hub for people flows and a rising cultural force 56 6. Thriving in the Asian Century 66 Technical appendix 72 The future of Asia: Asian flows and networks are defining the next phase of globalization 1 McKinsey Global Institute In brief The future of Asia: Asian flows and networks are defining the next phase of globalization Asia is the world’s largest regional economy, and and distinct enough to stand on its own, acts its power is expected to grow as its constituent as a regional anchor and a connectivity and economies integrate more deeply with one another innovation platform; (3) Emerging Asia provides in trade, innovation, and culture and people labor and long-term market growth potential, flows. Asia will fuel and shape the next phase of and is culturally diverse; and (4) Frontier Asia globalization in what can justifiably be called the and India accesses a broad base of trade Asian Century. partners and investors, and provides growth opportunities. The complementary nature of — Asia is increasingly becoming the world’s these groups can make Asia more prosperous center. Between 2000 and 2017, its share of and resilient. global real GDP in purchasing-power-parity terms rose from 32 to 42 percent; its share of — The integration and intraregional flows across global consumption from 23 to 28 percent; different Asias are creating powerful networks, and its share of the world’s middle classes with new urban hubs and spokes emerging from 23 to 40 percent. By 2040, those rapidly. We highlight three major networks. three measures of scale are expected to First, an “industrialization” network is increase further to 52, 39, and 54 percent, developing with rising consumption, maturing respectively. Although Asia faces challenges domestic value chains, and uncertainties such as growing risks