The high climatic risk of European wild bees and bumblebees

by Pierre Rasmont

14.VI.2016 Brussels Honey bee 1 species

Wild bee Wild bees and bumblebees: 1965 species in Europe

Bumblebee Wild bee

Bumblebees are the only 8/19 pollinator in Boreal and Arctic biomes, e.g. in N. Scandinavia and in N. Russia

Silene acaulis Hedysarum alpinum Astragalus alpinus

Pedicularis lapponica Salix lapponum Bartsia alpina Arctostaphylos uva ursi 2010-2015 FP7 STEP project Status and Trends of European Pollinators 16 EC countries, 21 labs Thanks to this very important project, we gathered 3.2 millions data about European wild bee species 2010-2015 FP7 STEP project Status and Trends of European Pollinators This project allowed so to elaborate full mapping of more than 2000 European species, to produce the first IUCN Red List of European Bees. We have been able to assess the fate of the European wild bees and bumblebees.

2011 1 391 538 data 2013 2 232 396 data 2015 3 277 936 data Maps allow to assess the This is a species in good "health" of each species. health: more GREEN dots (recent observations), than RED dots (ancien ones) This is a species that is clearly threatened: much more RED dots than GREEN ones. Redlist of European bees 2015

1965 species

The most diversified groups assessed by IUCN in Europe !

Redlist of To summarize the bumblebees European bees situation as assessed in 2015 2015

Redlist European Bees, Genus Bombus (Bumblebees)

The surprise is the main role played by climatic factors in this regression process, while we expected factors as pesticides, resources availability or landscape changes We have now several evidence about climate impact: - follow-up of selected mountain areas - measures of heat-stress resistance in heat waves - indirect impact through wild fires - modelling of climatic envelope in climate warming - meta-analysis of data from Europe and N. America - ... 1999 : a cold and wet year, with a high abundance of bumblebees.

Iserbyt & Rasmont, 2012

Bumblebees are 4 times more abundant in cold and wet years

2005 : a hot and dry year, with a very low abundance of bumblebees. The IPCC estimation for the 20°century : +0.74°C (1906-2005). This deals with mean temperatures only. However, populations appears mostly impacted by extreme events, as heat waves.

Exemple:

Kevo, Finnish Arctic May 31 2013, early spring.

During one full week the temperature crossed 30°C reaching 34°C, instead of the normal 14°C maximum of the location.

Such event strongly affect vegetation, as in this heathland (Brora, Scotland, 2009) The very last populations of Bombus cullumanus have been extirpated from its last locations in Massif Central during the 2003 heat wave

Massif Central

Source: NASA image, Heat wave 2003 in Europe We measured the 20/40 Impact of heat stress on bumblee species

Martinet et al. 2015 WILD FIRES Temperature anomalies from July 20—27, 2010, Source: NASA image

Wild fires in Russia and Portugal, 2010

Source: NASA image

http://jotman.blogspot.be/2010/08/map-of-fire- situation-in-russia.html WILD FIRES Temperature anomalies from July 20—27, 2010, Source: NASA image

Wild fires in Russia and Portugal, 2010 Wild fires have been identified as a major risk for a bunch of southern wild bee species. It could also impact boreal ones

Nieto et al. 2015 Lazarina et al. 2016 http://jotman.blogspot.be/2010/08/map-of-fire- situation-in-russia.html Modelized frequency of heat waves 1948-2003

The future is worrying !

Modelized frequency of heat waves in the Future Rasmont et al. 2015 (Book, Pensoft, Sofia) and PDF Open access

Climate change impacts on bumblebees converge across continents J. T. Kerr, A. Pindar, P. Galpern, L. Packer, S. G. Potts, S. M. Roberts, P. Rasmont, O. Schweiger, S. R. Colla, L. L. Richardson, D. L. Wagner, L. F. Gall, D. S. Sikes, A. Pantoja.

Long-term observations across Europe and North America over 110 years.

Found cross-continentally consistent trends in : - range losses from southern range limits; - shifts to higher elevations among southern species.

Kerr et al. 2015, Science With climate change, most species distributions will shift toward the North….

Scenario GRAS 2100 GAIN STATUS QUO LOSS

Bombus terrestris

Rasmont et al. 2015 While most northern species will very likely vanish…

Scenario GRAS 2100 GAIN STATUS QUO LOSS

Bombus hyperboreus

Rasmont et al. 2015 A very small number of species will take advantage of climate change to expand their distribution….

Scenario GRAS 2100 GAIN STATUS QUO LOSS

Bombus argillaceus

Rasmont et al. 2015

To summarize the situation…

In any cases, the projection appears dramatic.

At best At worst Rasmont et al. 2015 B.

Projected fate of European bumblebee species in 2100

Climatic Risk Atlas of European Bumblebees

City surroundings

City Present 2100 Actual sp. Nb % remaining Best Worst Narvik 23 117.1 100.0 Stockholm 26 29.0 3.2 Berlin 16 37.9 17.2 London 25 39.1 17.4 Rasmont et al. 2015 Brussels 29 41.7 8.3 Paris 18 50.0 10.0 Bordeaux 5 37.5 0.0 Mont-Louis 35 104.8 73.8 Granada 9 25.0 2.5 ...... Median 23 46.23 10.3 2100 GRAS scenario GAIN STATUS QUO LOSS

Projected area shift of Bombus terrestris 2100 GRAS scenario 2014

The change is already on the move! Martinet et al., 2016

Projected area shift of Bombus terrestris 39/40 Competition between arctic wildlife and new southern species

Norvège, Narvik, 1000 m asl

B. polaris

Martinet et al., 2016 40/40 Competition between arctic wildlife and new southern species

Norvège, Narvik, 1000 m asl

B. polaris B. terrestris

Martinet et al., 2015 41/40 Competition between arctic wildlife and new southern species

Norvège, Narvik, 1000 m asl

B. polaris B. terrestris

Martinet et al., 2015

We should reassess our present "Nature Conservation paradigm", mainly based on sanctuarising Natural Areas.

It should be replaced by a dynamic paradigm, with two very different concerns:

- Trailing edge conservation

How to maximize the survival of non-moving species in their original areas ?

- Leading edge conservation

How to manage the move of species toward their new areas ? The trailing edge conservation is likey not very different from the present policy.

However, it should focuse on microclimatic areas.

Such areas could play a "Noah's Arch" role for recovering the species AFTER the climatic crisis. The leading edge conservation Should DEEPLY questions our present management of "invasive taxa". While most of our present bumblebee species will disappear from temperate countries they are projected to be replaced by species from Balkan or Near-Orient

Bombus argillaceus Bombus haematurus Bombus niveatus The leading edge conservation Should DEEPLY questions our present management of "invasive species". Southern species are already arriving !

Large Carpenter bee Xylocopa pubescens, arriving from Africa and presently invading .

Thanks for your attention References Garratt M.P.D., Breeze T.D., Jenner N., Polce C., Biesmeijer J.C., Potts S.G., 2014. Avoiding a bad apple: pollination enhances fruit quality and economic value. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 184 (2014) 34–40. Garratt M.P.D., Coston D.J., Truslove C.L., Lappage M.G., Polce C., Dean R., Biesmeijer J.C. & Potts S.G., 2014. The identity of crop pollinators helps target conservation for improved ecosystem services. Biological Conservation; 169(100): 128–135. GIEC, 2007 : Bilan 2007 des changements climatiques. Contribution des Groupes de travail I, II et III au quatrième Rapport d’évaluation du Groupe d’experts intergouvernemental sur l’évolution du climat [Équipe de rédaction principale, Pachauri, R.K. et Reisinger, A. (publié sous la direction de~)]. GIEC, Genève, Suisse, …, 103 pages. Iserbyt S., Rasmont P., 2012. Th e eff ect of climatic variation on abundance and diversity of bumblebees: A ten years survey in a mountain hotspot. Annales- Societe Entomologique de 12/2012; 48(3-4):261-273. DOI:10.1080/00379271.2012.10697775 Kerr J.T., Pindar A., Galpern P., Packer L., Potts S.G., Roberts S.P.M., Rasmont P., Schweiger O., Colla S.R., Richardson L.L., Wagner D.L., Gall L.W., Sikes D.S., Pantoja A., 2015. Relocation risky for bumblebee colonies—Response. Science; 350(6258):287. DOI:10.1126/science.350.6258.287 Martinet B., Lecocq T., Smet J., Rasmont P., 2015. A Protocol to Assess Insect Resistance to Heat Waves, Applied to Bumblebees (Bombus Latreille, 1802). PLoS ONE 03/2015; 10(3):e0118591. DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0118591 Martinet B., Rasmont P., Cederberg B., Evrard D., Ødegaard F., Paukkunen J., Lecocq T., 2015. Forward to the North: two Euro-Mediterranean bumblebee species now cross the Arctic Circle. Annales de la Societe Entomologique de France 11/2015; Accepted. DOI:10.1080/00379271.2015.1118357 Meehl G.A. & Tebaldi C. 2004. More Intense, More Frequent, and Longer Lasting Heat Waves in the 21st Century. Science 305: 994-997 (2004); Nieto A., Roberts S.P.M., Kemp J., Rasmont P., Kuhlmann M., García Criado M., Biesmeijer J.C., Bogusch P., Dathe H.H., De la Rúa P., De Meulemeester T., Dehon M., Dewulf A., Ortiz-Sánchez F.J., Lhomme P., Pauly A., Potts S.G., Praz C., Quaranta M., Radchenko V.G., Scheuchl E., Smit J., Straka J., Terzo M., Tomozii B., Window J., Michez M.:, 2015. European Red List of Bees. Edited by International Union for Conservation of Nature; Publication Office of the European Union, Luxembourg., ISBN: 978-92-79-44512-5 Polce C., Garratt M.P., Termansen M., Ramirez-Villegas J., Challinor A.., Lappage M.G., Boatman N.D., Crowe A. , Endalew A.M. , Potts S.G., Somerwill K.E. & Biesmeijer J.C., 2014. Climate-driven spatial mismatches between British orchards and their pollinators: increased risks of pollination deficits. Global Change Biology 20, 2815–2828, doi: 10.1111/gcb.12577 Potts S., Biesmeijer K., Bommarco R., Breeze T., Carvalheiro L., Franzén M., González-Varo J.P., Holzschuh A., Kleijn D., Klein A.-M, Kunin, Lecocq T., Lundin O., Michez D., Neumann P., Nieto A., Penev L., Rasmont P., Ratamäki O., Riedinger V., Roberts S.P.M., Rundlöf M., Scheper J., Sørensen P., Steffan-Dewenter I., Stoev P., Vilà M., Schweiger O.: Status and trends of European pollinators. Key findings of the STEP project. 02/2015; Pensoft Publishers., ISBN: 978-954-642-762-5 Potts S.G., Biesmeijer J.C., Bommarco R., Felicioli A., Fischer M., Jokinen P., Kleijn D., Klein A.M., Kunin W.E., Neumann P., Penev L.D., Petanidou T., Rasmont P., Roberts S.P.M., Smith H.G., Sorensen P.B., Steffan-Dewenter I., Vaissiere B.E., Vila M., Ante Vujic, Woyciechowski M., Zobel M., Settele J., Schweiger O. 2011. Developing European conservation and mitigation tools for pollination services: Approaches of the STEP (Status and Trends of European Pollinators) project. Journal of Apicultural Research 04/2011; 50(2- 2):152-164. DOI:10.3896/ibra.1.50.2.07 Rasmont P., Franzen M., Lecocq T., Harpke A., Roberts S.P.M., Biesmeijer K., Castro L., Cederberg B., Dvorak L., Fitzpatrick U., Gonseth Y., Haubruge E., Mahe G., Manino A., Michez D., Neumayer J., Odegaard F., Paukkunen J., Pawlikowski T., Potts S.G., Reemer M., Settele J., Straka J., Schweiger O., 2015. Climatic Risk and Distribution Atlas of European Bumblebees. Pensoft Publishers, Sofia,246 p., ISBN: 978-954-642-769-4 (e- book), 978-954-642-768-7 (hardback) Rasmont P., Iserbyt S., 2012 The Bumblebees Scarcity Syndrome: Are heat waves leading to local extinctions of bumblebees (: : Bombus)?. Annales- Societe Entomologique de France 12/2012; 48(3-4):275-280. DOI:10.1080/00379271.2012.10697776