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Resilience to Natural Hazards in the Lower Hunter Region

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Resilience to Natural Hazards in the Lower Hunter Region Department of Sustainability, Environment, Water, Population and Communities 26 June 2013 Resilience to Natural Hazards in the Lower Hunter Discussion Paper AECOM Resilience to Natural Hazards in the Lower Hunter This Discussion Paper was funded by the Department of Sustainability, Environment, Water, Population, and Communities through the Sustainable Regional Development Program Disclaimer The views and opinions expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the Australian Government or the Minister for Sustainability, Environment, Water, Population and Communities. While reasonable efforts have been made to ensure that the contents of this publication are factually correct, the Commonwealth does not accept responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of the contents, and shall not be liable for any loss or damage that may be occasioned directly or indirectly through the use of, or reliance on, the contents of this publication. Creative Commons This report is licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Australia licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/au/deed.en). AECOM Australia Pty Ltd Level 2, 60 Marcus Clarke Street, Canberra ACT 2600, Australia T +61 2 6201 3000 F +61 2 6201 3099 www.aecom.com ABN 20 093 846 925 26 June 2013 Prepared by Davina Thomas, Nicola Glendining and Marcus Sainsbury Reviewed by Jennifer McAllister and Guillaume Prudent Richard Revision History Authorised Revision Date Details Name/Position Signature Marcus Sainsbury Early Draft Discussion 1 1-Mar-2013 Principal Environmental Original Signed Paper Scientist Marcus Sainsbury Draft Discussion 2 19-Apr-2013 Principal Environmental Original Signed Paper Scientist Guillaume Prudent Richard Final Discussion 3 24-May-2013 Environment Group ACT, Original Signed Paper Team Leader Guillaume Prudent Richard Final Discussion 4 26-June-2013 Environment Group ACT, Paper Team Leader AECOM in Australia and New Zealand is certified to the latest version of ISO9001 and ISO14001. © AECOM Australia Pty Ltd (AECOM). All rights reserved. AECOM has prepared this document for the sole use of the Client and for a specific purpose, each as expressly stated in the document. No other party should rely on this document without the prior written consent of AECOM. AECOM undertakes no duty, nor accepts any responsibility, to any third party who may rely upon or use this document. This document has been prepared based on the Client’s description of its requirements and AECOM’s experience, having regard to assumptions that AECOM can reasonably be expected to make in accordance with sound professional principles. AECOM may also have relied upon information provided by the Client and other third parties to prepare this document, some of which may not have been verified. Subject to the above conditions, this document may be transmitted, reproduced or disseminated only in its entirety. AECOM has exercised reasonable care when completing this report. However, caution must be taken when considering our conclusions because significant uncertainty remains due to the inherent complexities involved in analysing the past climate and variables typically encountered when modelling future climate change. AECOM cannot guarantee the accuracy of the climate observations and projections described in this report and cannot be responsible for any third party’s reliance upon on this information. 26 June 2013 AECOM Resilience to Natural Hazards in the Lower Hunter Table of Contents Glossary i List of Acronyms ii Executive Summary iii 1.0 Introduction 1 1.1 Discussion Paper scope and research questions 2 2.0 Approach 3 2.1 Limitations of this study 6 3.0 Modelling community resilience 7 3.1 Definitions and the relationship between resilience and vulnerability 7 3.2 Principles 7 3.3 Building a community resilience model 8 3.4 Model elements/ indicator examples 9 3.5 Building a Lower Hunter Community Resilience Model 11 4.0 Lower Hunter Profile 12 4.1 Overview 12 4.2 Lower Hunter 12 5.0 Hazard Profile 17 5.1 Overview 17 5.2 Sea Level Rise 17 5.3 Coastal Recession 19 5.4 Fluvial Flooding 21 5.5 Storms 28 5.6 Extreme heat and human health effects 29 5.7 Bushfire 32 5.8 Earthquakes 38 6.0 Formal Risk Response 41 6.1 Overview 41 7.0 Discussion 53 7.1 Overview 53 7.2 Model or framework approach 53 7.3 Data and indicators 54 7.4 Governance 58 8.0 Recommendations 59 8.1 Stakeholder testing 59 8.2 Ranking options 60 8.3 Recommendations 62 9.0 References 66 Appendix A - Stakeholder Workshop A 26 June 2013 AECOM Resilience to Natural Hazards in the Lower Hunter i Glossary Term Definition The capacity to be flexible, both during and after a disaster as well as to change Adaptive Capacity preparation and response behaviours to disasters in non-crisis periods. Climate Change Change in climate over time due to natural variability or as a result of human activity. A group of people with a commonality of association and generally defined by location, Community shared experience or function. A result or effect of an action or condition. Risk can be understood and expressed as a Consequence combination of the consequence of an event (including changes in circumstances) and the associated likelihood of occurrence. A condition or situation of significant destruction, disruption and/ or distress to a Disaster community. An event, actual or imminent, which endangers or threatens to endanger life, property or Emergency the environment, and which requires a significant and coordinated response. A potentially damaging physical event, phenomenon or human activity that may cause Hazard loss of life or injury, property damage, social and economic disruption or environmental degradation. Hazard Consideration of the frequency, duration, intensity, magnitude and rate of the onset as Assessment well as .likelihood and consequence. The state or fact of something being possible or probable. Risk can be understood and Likelihood expressed as a combination of the consequence of an event (including changes in circumstances) and the associated likelihood of occurrence. The capacity of human behaviour, social and physical environments to withstand loss or Resilience to recover if loss or damage occurs due to an emergency or disaster. Risk The degree of exposure to a hazard where there is a potential for loss. A characteristic of human behaviour, social and physical environments, describing the Vulnerability broad measure to the susceptibility or propensity to suffer loss or damage. 26 June 2013 AECOM Resilience to Natural Hazards in the Lower Hunter ii List of Acronyms ABS Australian Bureau of Statistics AGSO Australian Geological Survey Organisation AHD Australian Height Datum AHP Analytical Hierarchy Process BoM Bureau of Meteorology CCF Community Capitals Framework CSIRO Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation DCC (Commonwealth) Department of Climate Change DCCEE (Commonwealth) Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency DCP Development Control Plans DISPLAN Hunter Central Coast Emergency Management District Disaster Plan DIT (Commonwealth) Department of Infrastructure and Transport DPI Department of Planning and Infrastructure DECCW (NSW) Department of Environment, Climate Change and Water DoP (NSW) Department of Planning ECL East Coast Low EMA Emergency Management Australia EMPLAN (NSW) State Emergency Management Plan EPBC Act (Commonwealth) Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act 1999 EPA Act (NSW) Environmental Planning and Assessment Act 1979 ERM Emergency Risk Management FDM Floodplain Development Manual FFDI Forest Fire Danger Index GA Geoscience Australia GFDI Grassland Fire Danger Index ICA Insurance Council of Australia IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change HCCREMS Hunter & Central Coast Regional Environmental Management Strategy LEP Local environmental plans LGA Local Government Area MAP Measure of Australia’s Progress MCA Multi-Criteria Analysis NSW New South Wales OEH Office of Environment and Heritage SEPP State environment planning policies RDA Regional Development Australia SEWPaC Department of Sustainability, Environment, Water, Population and Communities SLR Sea level rise 26 June 2013 AECOM Resilience to Natural Hazards in the Lower Hunter iii Executive Summary Project Background This Discussion Paper is funded under the Sustainable Regional Development Program being undertaken by the Department of Sustainability, Environment, Water, Population and Communities (SEWPaC) to help facilitate a strategic assessment under the Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act 1999 (EPBC Act). The Lower Hunter strategic assessment will assess broad environmental, social and economic sustainability aspects within the local government areas (LGAs) of Newcastle, Maitland, Cessnock, Lake Macquarie and Port Stephens. The strategic assessment incorporates urban development areas and associated infrastructure corridors, with a focus on matters of national environmental significance protected under national environmental law. In the context of strategically managing urban, industrial and agricultural expansion and the conservation of key environmental values, the constraints brought by natural hazards cannot be ignored. While natural hazards cannot be prevented, it is possible to reduce the economic, physical, social and environmental impacts on and vulnerability of communities through resilience. Resilient communities experience less damage and tend to recover more quickly from disaster. They absorb stress
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