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White Paper on International P Economy and Trade 2010 Summary Provisional Translation White Paper on International Economy and Trade 2010 Summary July 2010 Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry White Paper on International Economy and Trade 2010 Table of Contents Chapter 1 Global Economy at a Turning Point —Current Situation and Future Prospects 1. 1 World Economic Power has become more diffuse with the Increased Presence of Emerging Countries 1.2 Current Situation and Future Prospects of the Economies of Major Countries/Regions Chapter 2 Japan Growing with Asia's Development —Asia-Pacific Framework Toward Sustainable Growth 2.1 Asia Establishing Status as the "World's Factory" 2.2 Asia Expected to Become the "World's Major Consumer Market" 2.3 Infrastructure Development to Promote Growth in Asia 2.4 Common Agendas to be Solved by Asia (aging society, resource constraints) Chapter 3 Japan's Post-Crisis Situation and Future Direction: Demonstrate Japan‘ s Fundamental Strengths and Making Further Efforts for Globalization 3.1 Japan to Respond to the World‘s New Demand 3.2 Create a Favorable New Balance of "Domestic and Foreign Demand" 3.3 Contribute to Development of Global Economic Foundation (EPA/FTA, Investment agreements, WTO, APEC, etc.) 2 Chapter 1 Global Economy at a Turning Point —Current Situation and Future Prospects 1111.1.1 World economy recovering from financial/economic crises with economic measures ○Advanced countries are expected to achieve positive but moderate growth in 2010. ○On the other hand, emerging countries such as China and India are estimated to achieve hig h growt h. World GDP Shares in 2009 and World Economic Outlook for 2010 （GDP 20% 40% 60% 80% growth, %） 10.0% 10 8.8% Vertical axis：Growth outlook for 2010（black） Horizontal axis：World GDP shares in 2009 (red） 5.5% 5.4% 5 4.6% World 4.0% 4.0% 4.3% Avgerage 4.2% 3.1% 3.1% 1.9% 1.3% World GDP 1.0% share in2009 3.8% 2.1% 2.2% 0 24.6% 21.6% 8.7% 2.3% 8.1% 8.5% 2.1% 2.7% 4.9% 8.3% 5 frica es tries razil tries om ussia ea na ada ndia EAN AA an tt nn I nn BB rr nn RR dd AS A Ca cou and Cou Sta Chi Jap King East Euro Advanced United developng Middle United ‐5 Other ging / rr eme Note: Data for "Other advanced countries " and "Other emerging /developing countries" are estimated by METI based on IMF data. 69.1% 30.9% Other Advanced countries Emerging countries Source ：Compiled by METI from IMF "World Economic Outlook," April 2010. 3 1.1.2 China leading Asia's economic recovery ○As a result of large-scale stimulus measures, China took an early lead in recovering from the world economic crisis. ○Asia achieved economic recovery ahead of the other economies, led by increased exports to China. China's imports recovering sharply Increased exports to China substantially contributing to Asia's export recovery Imports Under General Trade and China's Economic Growth EtbMjAiCti/RitChithExports by Major Asian Countries/Regions to China, the ((YoY, %) United States, and the EU (Year（2006 2006年=100) = 100) (前年同月比、%) 250 16 ($ billion) ASEAN10 ($ billion) South Korea ($ billion) Japan 14.0 14.0 18 12 18 14 13. 0 200 16 16 12.0 To China/Hong Kong 10 To China/Hong Kong 12 To China/Hong Kong 11.3 14 14 11.9 12 8 12 10 To the EU 150 10.7 10 10 To the 10.1 United 9.0 9.1 6 8 8 8 States 7.9 To the United States To the EU To the EU 100 6 4 6 6.8 6 6.2 4 4 2 To the United States 4 一般貿易（左軸） 2 2 50 Imports under general trade (left axis) 0 2 0 0 成長率（右軸） GDPGDP growth (right axis) 1234567891011121234567891011121 1234567891011121234567891011121 1234567891011121234567891011121 0 0 2008 2009 2010 2008 2009 2010 2008 2009 2010 13579111357911135791113 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: Compiled from the export/import statistics on China, Hong Kong, and the United States in Source: Compiled using data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China and the World Trade Atlas. the CEIC Database. 資料：中国国家統計局、CEIC Databaseから作成。 Note: “Imports under general trade” denotes imports (excluding raw materials) that are assumed to be consumed in the Chinese domestic market. 4 第１章 転換期にあるグローバル経済の現状と今後 1.1.3 Asian and other emerging countries driving the world’s economic growth ○In the medium to long term, Asian and other emerging countries are greatly contributing to the world’s economic growth. ○Emerging countries' share of contribution to the world GDP growth is expected to reverse with that of advanced countries, rising from about 40% before the world economic crisis to about 60% after the crisis . Asia and other emerging countries greatly contributing to world’s economic growth （％） IMF's World Economic Outlook 6 Economic Growth Outlook 5.1 5.2 for 2010 4.9 5 4.5 4.6 4.6 EU 1.0% 4.5 4.3 4.5 4.2 United States 3.1% 3.6 4 Japan 1.9% 3.0 Other advanced countries 3.7% 3 China 10.0% Asian emerging countries － (excluding China) 2 Russia 40%4.0% Brazil 5.5% 1 Middle East and North 4.5% Africa Sub‐Saharan Africa 4.7% 0 Other emerging countries － World 4.2% ‐1 Emerging countries' contribution to ‐0.6 Emerging countries' contribution to world GDP growth : 43% world GDP growth : 58% ‐2 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source： Compiled from IMF "World Economic Outlook," April 2010 5 Source： Compiled from IMF "World Economic Outlook, April 2010" 1.1.4 World economy at a turnaround: World economy to be more diffuse ○ Presence of New frameworks such as G20 are on the rise. ○Economies of emerging countries are expected to further increase their shares in the world economy. The world economy is shifting toward to be more diffuse. EifitiEconomy size of emerging countries Toward a more diffuse world economy expanded over the past 10 years. Shares of Major Countries/Regions in the Economy size of G20 countries not in the G8 has World’s Nominal GDP almost tripled over the past 10 years. 2009 2005 (partly 2015 1999 estimated) (estimated) そのOthers他 World total value 9% $31.2 trillion * EU G20 other than G8 G8G20以外の other 30.3% 28.4% 23.8% $7.3 trillion thanG20 G8 24% G8 United States 27.8% 24.6% 22.3% 67% Japan 10.0% 8.7% 7.6% 2.6 times 2009 Emerggging 23.7% 30.9% 38.8% World total value countries その他Others $57.9 trillion* 12% China 4.9% 8.5% 11.5% G20 other than G8 Other Asian $18.7 trillion G8G20以外の other than G8 G8 countries 3.9% 5.0% 6.3% G20 56% 32% Brazil 1.9% 2.7% 3.2% * Nominal dollar basis Russia Notes: G8 denotes the United States, Japan, the United Kingdom, Canada, Germany, France, Italy, 1.7% 2.1% 3.7% and Russia. G20 denotes G8 members plus Argentina, Australia, Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, South Korea, Note: Converted into real GDP based on Year 2000. Mexico, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Turkey, and the EU. Source: Compiled from IMF "World Economic Outlook," April 2010. Source: Compiled from IMF "World Economic Outlook," April 2010. 6 第１章 転換期にあるグローバル経済の現状と今後 1.2.1 US and European economies are recovering modestly but face various risks (1) ○ The US economy is on a recovery trend due to fiscal/financial policies. The number of employees is currently showing signs of recovery, but the unemployment rate remains high. ○ The reco v er y pace o f the Eu ropea n econo my is s lo w with ve r y littl e econ omi c gr owth. US economy on a recovery trend, and European Unemployment rates in the United States economy recovering slowly and Europe remaining high. GDP Growth of the United States and Europe Unemployment Rates in the United States and Europe (%,（%、前期比年率） QoQ annualized) 5.6 (MoM,（前月比、% ）%) 6 米国 11 Euro Area, United States ユーロ圏, March: Euroユーロ Area圏 3月10.0,10.0 4 United 10 United英国 Kingdom States,米国, 3.2 米国, Euro United United United States,月 3.2 9 ユーロ圏 米国 英国 4 , 9.9 2 Area States Kingdom April: 9.9 0.4 United 英国United, Kingdom,英国, 0.2 8 Kingdom, 月 0 0.2 2February:, 8.0 8.0 EAEユロユuroー Aロrea,圏 000.0 , 000.0 7 ‐2 6 ‐4 5 ‐6 4 ‐8 3 007 007 007 007 007 007 008 008 008 008 008 008 009 009 009 009 009 009 010 010 0月 2月 0月 2月 0月 2月 2月 4月 6月 8月 2月 4月 6月 8月 2月 4月 6月 8月 2月 4月 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 （年月） ‐10 年年 年年 年年 年年 年年 年年 年年 年年 年年 年年 年年 年年 年年 年年 Apr. Apr. Apr. Apr. Oct. Oct. Oct. Jun. Jun. Jun. Feb. Feb. Feb. Feb. 4Q2007 2007年4Q 1Q 2008 2008年1Q 2Q 2008 2008年2Q 3Q 2008 2008年3Q 4Q 2008 2008年4Q 1Q 2009 2009年1Q 2Q 2009 2009年2Q 3Q 2009 2009年3Q 4Q 2009 2009年4Q 1Q 2010 2010年1Q Aug. Dec. Aug. Dec. Aug. Dec. 2007 2007 2007 2007 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2010 2008 2009 2010 2007年1 2007年1 2008年1 2008年1 2009年1 2009年1 Source:資料： Bloomberg Compiledから作成。 using data from Bloomberg. Source:資料：Bloomberg Compiledから作成。 using data from Bloomberg. 7 1.2.2 US and European economies are recovering modestly but face various risks (2) ○ Nonperforming assets disposal to proceed, but only halfway through.
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