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Common Currency in East Asia: an Analysis of Currency Convergence
View metadata, citation and similar papers at core.ac.uk brought to you by CORE provided by Research Online @ ECU Edith Cowan University Research Online ECU Publications 2011 1-1-2011 Common Currency in East Asia: An Analysis of Currency Convergence Lee K. Lim Edith Cowan University Follow this and additional works at: https://ro.ecu.edu.au/ecuworks2011 Part of the Finance and Financial Management Commons This is an Author's Accepted Manuscript of: Lim, L. K. (2011). Common Currency in East Asia: An Analysis of Currency Convergence. International Journal of Business Studies, 19(1), 53-67. Available here This Journal Article is posted at Research Online. https://ro.ecu.edu.au/ecuworks2011/133 INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BUSINESS STUDIES – SPECIAL EDITION VOL 19 NO 1, JUNE 2011: pages 53 to 67 COMMON CURRENCY IN EAST ASIA: AN ANALYSIS OF CURRENCY CONVERGENCE Lee K Lim* The recent global financial crisis of 2007-2009 and fears of a sovereign debt crisis in some European countries have fuelled the debates among economic analysts and policy makers on the future directions of monetary and exchange rate arrangements in the East Asian region. This paper applies both the cluster analysis and time series tests to determine whether increased trade and financial integration has led to currency convergence in the region over the period January 1990 to June 2010. The countries included in this study are the high-performing East Asian economies, namely China, Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and the five founding ASEAN member countries. The Chinese yuan is found to be more suited than the Japanese yen as the anchor currency in East Asia. -
The Possible Use of Asian Monetary Unit (AMU) - Comment
A3 Conference : Monetary and Financial Cooperation in the Region May 24, 2012, RIETI, Tokyo Japan The Possible Use of Asian Monetary Unit (AMU) - Comment - Jung-Sik Kim Yonsei University, Seoul Korea [email protected] I. Summary of the Paper 1 1. AMU is different from euro and similar to ECU • Euro-zone has experienced some troubles and the creation and use of single common currency in East Asia might not be feasible in short run. • AMU is a composite currency of 13 East Asian currencies 2. AMU could be used as a surveillance indicator of misalignment of bilateral exchange rate or nominal bilateral equilibrium exchange rate (Ogawa and Shimizu(2010) Summary of the Paper 2 • Causes of misalignment : Fear of appreciation in East Asia and accumulation of foreign reserve by mercantilism and asymmetric intervention • AMU deviation index (AMUDI) is highly related to trade balance in the region • Because of the less convergence of fundamentals in East Asia, Asian currencies could not keep narrow margin • Large margin is needed for the countries which have large trade deficits Summary of the Paper 3 3. Create AMU-3 for trade settlement currency • CMIM’s weight : Japan, China, Korea : 32:32:16 • Create CLS bank for AMU-3 trade settlement • CLS bank could promote local currency settlement or invoicing II. Lessons from Euro-Zone Crisis • OCA criteria (fiscal transfer or factor movement etc.) does not work when there is asymmetric Shock • Difficult to make agreement for fiscal deficit criteria • Without monetary and exchange rate policies, countries -
How Does the Regional Monetary Unit Work As a Surveillance Tool in East Asia?
DPRIETI Discussion Paper Series 13-E-026 How Does the Regional Monetary Unit Work as a Surveillance Tool in East Asia? KAWASAKI Kentaro Toyo University The Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry http://www.rieti.go.jp/en/ RIETI Discussion Paper Series 13-E-026 April 2013 How Does the Regional Monetary Unit Work as a Surveillance Tool in East Asia? § ♣† KAWASAKI Kentaro Faculty of Business Administration, Toyo University Abstract To utilize the Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralization (CMIM) for crisis management, macroeconomic surveillance of the member economies should be ex-ante conditionality. Hence, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) plus Three Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) was established to detect possibilities of economic crises and to prompt the restructuring or reforming of a rigid structure or system. Although monitoring the exchange rates of the currencies of these countries vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar is essential for surveillance, the AMRO should have an original tool to consider region-specific factors and more efficient tools than the International Monetary Fund (IMF) surveillance. Therefore, this paper proposes utilizing a regional monetary unit (RMU) in monitoring exchange rates. Empirical analysis has confirmed that deviation indicators of RMUs such as the Asian Monetary Unit Deviation Indicators (AMU DI) are expected to be useful for macroeconomic surveillance. This paper also tries to define the country’s equilibrium exchange rate vis-à-vis a RMU to provide useful statistical information about exchange rate misalignments among East Asian currencies by employing the permanent-transitory decomposition proposed by Gonzalo and Granger (1995). Keywords: Equilibrium exchange rate, Regional monetary unit, Co-integration, Permanent-transitory decomposition JEL classification: F31, F33, F36 RIETI Discussion Papers Series aims at widely disseminating research results in the form of professional papers, thereby stimulating lively discussion. -
1. Integrated Domestic and Foreign Economic Measures (PDF: 2695KB)
Section 2 Four Priorities for Foreign Economic Policy Section 1 discussed three basic principles for Japan’s external economic policy: specifically, (i) developing new domestic and foreign markets (market expansion), (ii) building a strong, new social structure that can adapt to change (market maintenance), and (iii) striving to be a nation that solves global issues. Based on these three viewpoints, Section 2 presents the following four items regarding how to proceed with foreign economic policies: namely (i) integrated domestic and foreign economic measures, (ii) promotion of volume zone/innovation, (iii) global development of a low carbon revolution and (iv) multi-layered developments, including industrial cooperation with resource-rich countries. 1. Integrated domestic and foreign economic measures Facing population decline, it is difficult for Japan to achieve sustainable economic growth through expansion of domestic demand alone. Domestic financial and economic measures no longer have only domestic effects now that economic activities expand beyond national borders. The most effective economic measure for Japan, as a trading nation, is nationally and internationally integrated economic policies that would contribute to a further expansion of the growing world market and to the co-development of the Japanese and world economy. Integrated domestic and foreign economic measures introduced in this section include (i) promotion of the Growth Initiative toward Doubling the Size of Asia’s Economy, (ii) regulation of protectionism (promotion of the Doha Round and the Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA)), and (iii) promotion of global developments of infrastructure-related industries, such as electricity/transportation/water sectors, the services industry and the contents industry. (1) Growth Initiative toward Doubling the Size of Asia’s Economy In his speech delivered at the Japan National Press Club on April 9, 2009, Prime Minister Aso announced the Growth Initiative towards Doubling the Size of Asia’s Economy to be achieved by 2020. -
Asian Monetary Unit and Monetary Cooperation in Asia
A Service of Leibniz-Informationszentrum econstor Wirtschaft Leibniz Information Centre Make Your Publications Visible. zbw for Economics Ogawa, Eiji; Shimizu, Junko Working Paper Asian monetary unit and monetary cooperation in Asia ADBI Working Paper, No. 275 Provided in Cooperation with: Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI), Tokyo Suggested Citation: Ogawa, Eiji; Shimizu, Junko (2011) : Asian monetary unit and monetary cooperation in Asia, ADBI Working Paper, No. 275, Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI), Tokyo This Version is available at: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/53597 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Terms of use: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. personal and scholarly purposes. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle You are not to copy documents for public or commercial Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, If the documents have been made available under an Open gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort Content Licence (especially Creative Commons Licences), you genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. may exercise further usage rights as specified in the indicated licence. www.econstor.eu ADBI Working Paper Series Asian Monetary Unit and Monetary Cooperation in Asia Eiji Ogawa and Junko Shimizu No. 275 April 2011 Asian Development Bank Institute Eiji Ogawa is a professor at the Graduate School of Commerce and Management of Hitotsubashi University; Junko Simizu is an associate professor at the School of Commerce of Senshu University. -
Asean+3 Research Group
ASEAN+3 RESEARCH GROUP Toward Greater Financial Stability in the Asia Region: Exploring Steps to create Regional Monetary Units Research Team: Professor Dr. Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah, Professor Dr. Muzafar Shah Habibullah and Dr. Law Siong Hook Center for Economic Integration and Policy Studies and Department of Economics Faculty of Economics and Management Universiti Putra Malaysia 43400 UPM Serdang, Selangor Malaysia Correspondence: Dr. Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah (Project Leader) Professor Department of Economics Faculty of Economics and Management Universiti Putra Malaysia 43400 UPM Serdang, Selangor Malaysia Email: [email protected] Tel: 603 8946 7744 Fax: 603 8946 7665 TABLE OF CONTENT PAGE Executive Summary 2 1.0 Introduction 5 1.1 Motivation of issues 5 1.2 Description of project 5 1.3 Organization 6 2.0 ASEAN+3 Economic Co-operation and Integration 6 2.1 Rational for economic co-operation 8 2.2 Key economic indicators 9 2.3 Evaluating candidates for regional co-operation 21 3.0 Economic and Monetary Integration: ASEAN+3 Evaluated 22 3.1 Optimum currency areas (OCA) ad related studies 22 3.2 Economic co-operation 27 3.2.1 ASEAN co-operation arrangements 27 3.2.2 East Asia and Asia-Pacific co-operation 30 3.3 Real and monetary compatibility of ASEAN 5+3 economies: Some empirical tests 34 3.4 The Maastricht convergence criteria: Monetary policy convergence 36 4.0 Macroeconomic compatibility of ASEAN-5 Plus 3 40 4.1 Background 40 4.2 Estimation technique 42 4.3 Empirical Findings 44 4.4 Comparing the Composition of Asian Monetary -
ASCC 2011 Conference Brought Together Scholars from 19 of the 21 APEC Member Economies As Well As Scholars from Colombia and Brazil
APEC Study Center Consortium Conference 2011 Key Findings and Policy Recommendations: Green Growth, Trade Integration and Regulatory Convergence Co-Editors: Vinod K. Aggarwal, UC Berkeley and Richard Feinberg, UC San Diego, APEC Study Centers Consortium (ASCC) 2011 Co-Chairs. November 2011 APEC Study Center Consortium Conference 2011 Key Findings and Policy Recommendations: Green Growth, Trade Integration and Regulatory Convergence Disclaimer: This report was prepared by the APEC Study Center Consortium (ASCC). Its contents are the responsibility of the authors listed and do not necessarily reflect the views of APEC economies. Contents Introduction 1 Vinod K. Aggarwal, UC Berkeley and Richard Feinberg, UC San Diego 1. APEC’s Green Growth Strategy and the United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development 7 I-Chun Hsiao, United Nations Foundation and Jerry I-H Hsiao, Taylor's University 2. A New Geography of Innovation? Opportunities and Challenges Facing the Asia-Pacific Region 23 Yumiko Okamoto, Doshisha University 3. Racing to the Top: Chinese Taipei’s Achievements on the Ease of Doing Business 39 Yi-hung Chiou, Chinese Taipei APEC Study Center 4. Design of Chinese Taipei Governance Indicators and Implications for Effective Regulatory Policy 61 Ko-Hsin Yang, Yu-Chieh Lin, Ri Sharng Chiang, Yu Tai Hung, Chun Ming Chen, Taiwan Public Governance Research Center 5. Contributing to Financial Market Stability in APEC Economies 83 Sri Adiningsih et. al., Universitas Gadjah Mada 6. Russia and the Emerging Institutional Order in the Asia-Pacific 101 Artyom Lukin, Far Eastern Federal University 7. New IAP Peer Review Process toward FTAAP 119 Ippei Yamazawa, Hitotsubashi University 8. The Future of APEC and the Strategic Scenarios 131 Cai Penghong, Shanghai Institutes for International Studies 9. -
1 ACADEMIC/PROFESSIONAL ACHIEVEMENT 1. Major Papers and Publication (Written in English Only). (1) Published and Forthcoming
ACADEMIC/PROFESSIONAL ACHIEVEMENT 1. Major Papers and Publication (Written in English only). (1) Published and Forthcoming Research Papers and Books [Books] Asia & Europe: Beyond Competing Regionalism, Brighton: Sussex Academic Press, 1998 (edited with Kiichiro Fukasaku and Shujiro Urata). New East Asian Regionalism: Causes, Progress and Country Perspectives, Cheltenham: Edward Elgar, 2005 (edited with Charles Harvie and Hyun-Hoon Lee). Book review by Young-Han Kim in Journal of Regional Science, Vol. 47, No. 2: 400-402. Multinationals and Economic Growth in East Asia: Foreign Direct Investment, Corporate Strategies and National Economic Development, London: Routledge, 2006 (edited with Shujiro Urata and Chia Siow Yue). East Asia’s Economic Integration: Progress and Benefit, New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2008 (edited with Daisuke Hiratsuka). Comprehensive Asia Development Plan (as of 16 August 2010). ERIA Research Project 2009 No. 7-1 (with So Umezaki). In http://www.eria.org/. Joint Research Project for a New Era of Complex Networks in Korea-Japan Relations, A New Era of Complex Networks in Korea-Japan Relations, 2011 (with the Committee Members). [On price differentials and trade barriers] “Sectoral Price Movements under the Yen Appreciation.” Journal of the Japanese and International Economies 11, December 1997: 611-641 (with Yoko Sazanami and Hiroki Kawai). “The Competitive Impact of International Trade: The Case of Import Liberalization of the Japanese Oil Product Market.” Journal of the Japanese and International Economies 13, December 1999: 397-423 (with Sadao Nagaoka). [On foreign direct investment and firms’ behavior] “Japanese Multinationals and Regional Integration in Asia.” In Kiichiro Fukasaku, Fukunari Kimura, and Shujiro Urata, eds., Asia & Europe: Beyond Competing Regionalism, Brighton: Sussex Academic Press, 1998: 111-133. -
Japanese Election Marks “Evolutionary” Adjustment to Changing Global Environment
Japanese Election Marks “Evolutionary” Adjustment to Changing Global Environment IN THIS ISSUE: NOVEMBER 2009 • Japanese Election Marks “Evolutionary” Adjustment to In the wake of a historic global economic crisis, investors, Changing Global Environment analysts and political observers are closely watching • Japan’s Aging Population for transformations in power, institutions, alliances, and – Projected Demographic markets across the world. The August 2009 election in Trends Japan, which resulted in a landslide Democratic Party of • DPJ Government Provides Japan (DPJ) victory, has led to intense speculation as to Impetus for Change and Continuity with Past whether this will result in “revolutionary” change or simply maintenance of the status quo. • APEC Provides Forum to Develop East Asia as Driver of Global Growth Another area of special concern will be the ability of East • Renewable Energy and Asia to continue its development as an increasingly vibrant Conservation Vital to Reverse and important engine of world growth. Japan’s role as Climate Change and to Restore and Sustain Global Growth and host of the 2010 Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Development Summit in Yokohoma will provide a high-level forum in • And More! which the nation can demonstrate its ability to assist in this long-term transformation. Planning is now underway to develop a progressive agenda that can achieve the efficiencies of globalization while formulating solutions to problems related to domestic dislocation as well as global climate change. Resolving issues related to environmental protection, alternative energy and conservation, health and economic development of the world’s poorest countries are all essential to restore and sustain economic growth. -
Asia and Europe: Engaging for a Post- Crisis World
Asia Programme Paper ASP PP 2011/01 Asia and Europe: Engaging for a Post- Crisis World Gareth Price Head, Asia Programme, Chatham House January 2011 The views expressed in this document are the sole responsibility of the author and do not necessarily reflect the view of Chatham House, its staff, associates or Council. Chatham House is independent and owes no allegiance to any government or to any political body. It does not take institutional positions on policy issues. This document is issued on the understanding that if any extract is used, the author and Chatham House should be credited, preferably with the date of the publication. Programme Paper: Asia and Europe: Engaging for a Post-Crisis World Summary • The success of past Asia-Europe initiatives highlights the benefits of cooperation between Asia and the European Union, particularly as future challenges are as likely to be global as they are regional. • While many Europeans currently consider there to be a crisis of global leadership, many Asians perceive current trends as marking the end of Western domination and the emergence of a more representative global leadership structure. • Asia is enjoying sustained economic growth. However, this has not yet converted into a pan-Asian identity. The Asian approach to regionalism differs greatly from that espoused by the European Union. • Existing systems of global governance do not reflect emerging economic realities. This is problematic both for over-represented Europe and for under-represented Asia. www.chathamhouse.org.uk 2 Programme Paper: Asia and Europe: Engaging for a Post-Crisis World Introduction This paper draws on the 5th Asia-Europe Editors’ Roundtable, a flagship curtain- raiser event organized by the Asia-Europe Foundation (ASEF) and held in Brussels on the eve of the 8th Summit of Leaders of the Asia-Europe Meeting (ASEM). -
Beyond Bogor: Reflections on APEC's Future
COVER STORY • APEC Japan 2010 •2 eyond Bogor: Reflections on APEC’s Future BBy Vinod AGGARWAL & Peter VOLBERDING I. Introduction diverse nature of APEC’s members complicates the negotiation process. Differing interests and priorities, especially among the major The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum’s role in the Pacific economies of China, Japan and the United States, have led to Asia-Pacific has reflected the widespread trend toward efforts to competing visions of APEC’s role. Third, many have criticized APEC’s institutionalize economic and other relationships in the region. In its slow implementation of the Bogor Goals. With the 2010 deadline of free 20 years of existence, APEC has nearly doubled in size – from 12 trade and investment between the advanced economies of APEC likely members to 21 – with another dozen or so seeking membership. to pass unfulfilled, progress toward a member-wide trade liberalization APEC’s issue scope has similarly broadened to include social and agreement by 2020 is similarly stymied, and is unlikely to advance in environmental matters, and it has acquired a somewhat higher the near future. Finally, the global economic recession has dampened degree of institutionalization via a stronger secretariat in Singapore interest in free trade, forcing APEC to spend time combating protection- (Chart). But consistently central to APEC’s mission of liberalization ism rather than promoting liberalization. has been the pursuit of trade liberalization, most recently promulgat- Under these challenging circumstances, will APEC be unable to ed through the envisioned Free Trade Agreement of the Asia-Pacific meet its goals and relegated to the sidelines of trade fora in the Asia- (FTAAP). -
Apec Japan 2010
THE IMPORTANCE OF APEC APEC: e World’s Largest Open and Voluntary Economic Forum 1 The World’s Largest Forum for Regional Cooperation 2 Cooperative and Voluntary Action APEC accounts for about 40% of the world’s population and roughly APEC is an economic forum operating on the basis of nonbinding 53% of global GDP. It is the world’s largest forum for regional coopera- commitments, which are undertaken on a voluntary basis, meaning tion. that APEC has no treaty obligations required of its participants. APEC promotes economic and technical cooperation and the liberalization and facilitation of trade and investment through cooperative and voluntary actions by its member economies. 3 The APEC Business Advisory Council Pursuant to the decision made at the 1995 APEC Economic Leaders’ Meeting in Osaka, the APEC Business Advisory Council (ABAC) was established in 1996 to provide advice on the implementation of the Osaka Action Agenda and on other specic business sector priorities, and to respond when the various APEC fora request information about business-related issues or to provide the business perspective on specic areas of cooperation. ABAC consists of up to three members of the private sector from each APEC economy, who are appointed to serve on the Council by their respective Leaders. It meets face-to-face with APEC Leaders during the annual APEC summit to discuss issues of concern to the private sector. ABAC also presents its proposals to APEC Leaders prior to their annual summit in the autumn of each year. ABAC is unique in ensuring private-sector input into the APEC process.