Handelsbanken
January – September 2020 21 October 2020
1 Summary Q3 2020 (Q2 2020)
. Operating profit, adjusted for foreign exchange movements and items affecting comparability, increased by 14%. Profit was impacted by a provision for a restructuring reserve of SEK -1,470m. Including this item, operating profit decreased by 16% to SEK 4,227m (5,054).
. Return on equity, adjusted for non-recurring items, was 11.6%. Including these items, the return on equity was 8.4% (10.2).
. Earnings per share amounted to SEK 1.68 (2.00).
. Adjusted for foreign exchange effects, income grew by 5%. Including these effects, income increased by 4% to SEK 11,014m (10,625).
. Adjusted for items affecting comparability and foreign exchange, expenses fell by 3%. Including these effects, expenses rose by 23% to SEK -6,738m (-5,474).
. The C/I ratio, adjusted for non-recurring items, decreased to 47.7% (51.5). Including these items, the C/I ratio increased to 61.2% (51.5).
. The credit loss ratio was 0.00% (0.00). Expected credit losses in Stage 3 totalled SEK -28m (-11).
2 Summary January – September 2020 (2019)
. Adjusted for foreign exchange effects and items affecting comparability, operating profit was virtually unchanged. Including these effects, profit decreased by 10% to SEK 14,423m (16,101).
. Return on equity, adjusted for non-recurring items, was 10.6% (12.6); including these items, it was 9.7% (11.9).
. Earnings per share decreased to SEK 5.66 (6.43).
. The common equity tier 1 ratio increased to 19.4% (17.4). The previously proposed dividend for 2019 is still deducted in own funds.
. The credit loss ratio was 0.03% (0.05).
. Income, adjusted for foreign exchange effects, was essentially unchanged. Including foreign exchange effects, income decreased by 1% to SEK 32,817m (33,188).
. The underlying cost increase, adjusted for foreign exchange effects and items affecting comparability, was 1.7%. Including these effects, expenses increased by 9% to SEK -17,718m (-16,189).
. Adjusted for non-recurring items, the C/I ratio was 49.3% (48.5). Including these items, the C/I ratio was 54.0% (48.8).
. In all its home markets, Handelsbanken has more satisfied customers – both private and corporate – than the average, according to SKI/EPSI 2020.
3 Income statement Compared to the previous quarter
Q3 Q2 Volume effect: SEK -10m SEK m 2020 2020 Change Net effect of changed margins in the home markets and Net interest income 7,893 7,622 4% funding costs: SEK +312m Government fees: SEK +67m Net fee and commission income 2,672 2,530 6% Foreign exchange effects: SEK -91m Day count effects: SEK +33m Net gains/losses on financial transactions 358 409 -12% Risk result - insurance 52 23 126% Other income 39 41 -5% Total income 11,014 10,625 4% +5% adjusted for foreign exchange effects Staff costs -4,731 -3,464 37% Other expenses -2,007 -2,010 0% Total expenses -6,738 -5,474 23% -3% adjusted for foreign exchange effects and restructuring costs Profit before credit losses 4,276 5,151 -17% Net credit losses -49 -97 -49% Gains/losses on disposal of property, 0 0 0% equipment and intangible assets Operating profit 4,227 5,054 -16% +14% adjusted for foreign exchange effects and restructuring costs Taxes -905 -1,095 -17% Profit for the period 3,322 3,959 -16%
4 Operating profit*
SEK m 5,800 5,735
5,600
5,400 +14% 14% increase compared to
5,200 the previous quarter
5,000
4,800
4,600 Q2 Q3 2020 2020
* Adjusted for foreign exchange effects and restructuring costs (SEK 1,508m Q3 2020) 5 Net interest income*
SEK m 8,000 7,893
7,800 +5% 7,600 5% increase compared to 7,400 previous quarter
7,200
7,000
6,800 Q2 Q3 2020 2020
* Adjusted for foreign exchange effects 6 Net interest income Q3 compared to previous quarter
SEK m 8,100
8,000 67 -58
7,900 -40
7,800 312
7,700 7,893 -10 7,600
7,500 7,622
7,400 NII Q220 Volumes Margins and Mandatory Foreign exchange Other NII Q320 home funding in government and markets home markets fees day count effects
7 Increased lending to the public*
Household lending Corporate lending SEK bn SEK bn 1,240 1,100
1,090 1,230
1,080
1,220 1,070
1,210 1,060
1,050 1,200 SEK +44bn SEK +0bn (+4%) 1,040 (+0%)
1,190 1,030
1,180 1,020
Jul-20 Jul-20
Oct-19 Oct-19 Apr-20 Apr-20
Jun-20 Jan-20 Jun-20 Jan-20
Feb-20 Mar-20 Feb-20 Mar-20
Nov-19 Sep-20 Nov-19 Sep-20 Sep-19 Dec-19 Aug-20 Sep-19 Dec-19 Aug-20
May-20 May-20
* End of month, adjusted for foreign exchange effects 8 Increased deposits from the public*
Household deposits Deposits and borrowing from corporates SEK bn SEK bn 570 850
560 800
550 750
540 700
530 650
520 SEK +41bn 600 SEK +141bn (+8%) (+23%) 510 550
500 500
Jul-20
Oct-19
Apr-20
Jun-20
Jan-20
Mar-20
Feb-20
Sep-20
Aug-20
Dec-19
Nov-19
Sep-19
Jul-20
May-20
Apr-20
Oct-19
Jun-20
Jan-20
Mar-20
Feb-20
Sep-20
Aug-20
Dec-19
Nov-19
Sep-19 May-20
* End of month, adjusted for foreign exchange effects 9 Expenses*
SEK m -5,500
-5,450
-5,400
-5,350 -3% 3% decline of underlying -5,300 expenses compared to the -5,250 -5,230 previous quarter
-5,200
-5,150
-5,100
-5,050 Q2 Q3 2020 2020
* Adjusted for foreign exchange effects and restructuring costs (SEK 1,508m Q3 2020) 10 Regained cost control (1)
Expenses* per quarter SEK m -5,800 12%
-5,600 10%
-5,400 8%
-5,200 6%
-5,000 4% -4,800
-5,353 2% -4,600 -5,230
0% -4,400
-4,200 -2%
-4,000 -4% Q117 Q217 Q317 Q417 Q118 Q218 Q318 Q418 Q119 Q219 Q319 Q419 Q120 Q220 Q320
Expenses, adjusted Change from previous year
* Adjusted for Oktogonen, restructuring costs and effects from changed pension plans 11 Regained cost control (2)
Expenses*, 12-month rolling SEK m -23,000 10%
9% -22,000 8%
7% -21,000 6%
-20,000 5%
-21,889 -21,764 4% -19,000 3%
2% -18,000 1%
-17,000 0% Q117 Q217 Q317 Q417 Q118 Q218 Q318 Q418 Q119 Q219 Q319 Q419 Q120 Q220 Q320
Expenses, adjusted Change from previous year
* Adjusted for Oktogonen, restructuring costs and effects from changed pension plans 12 Ongoing initiatives
. Unchanged outlook: All else equal, SEK -1.5bn annualised cost savings by end of 2021 . Agreed/addressed: SEK 690m since Q4 2019 (SEK 140m in Q3 2020) . Restructuring reserve: SEK 315m utilised (SEK 93m in Q3 2020) of SEK 930m . Materialised: SEK ~400m lower annualised costs from Q3 2020 as a result of initiatives
690
310
500
SEK Xbn X SEK -1bn X SEK -1.5bn
Annual cost base Agreed/ Annual cost base Annual cost base Q3 2019 addressed December 2020 December 2021
13 Net fee and commission income*
SEK m 2,700 2,672 2,650
2,600 +6%
2,550
2,500 6% increase compared to
2,450 the previous quarter
2,400
2,350
2,300
2,250
2,200 Q2 Q3 2020 2020
* Adjusted for foreign exchange effects 14 Long-term growth in fee and commission income in the Group
Net fee and commission income
SEK m 2,800 CAGR: 4%
2,700
2,600
2,500
2,400
2,672 2,300
2,200
2,259 2,100
2,000 Q316 Q416 Q117 Q217 Q317 Q417 Q118 Q218 Q318 Q418 Q119 Q219 Q319 Q419 Q120 Q220 Q320
15 Highest quarterly level so far in the savings business
Net fee and commissions from savings business*
SEK m 1,600 CAGR: 10%
1,500
1,400
1,300
1,557 1,200
1,100
1,000 1,083
900 Q316 Q416 Q117 Q217 Q317 Q417 Q118 Q218 Q318 Q418 Q119 Q219 Q319 Q419 Q120 Q220 Q320
* Mutual funds, custody accounts and other asset management and insurance 16 Continued strong mutual fund flows
Accumulated net inflows in the Market share of net inflows in the Swedish market: Swedish mutual fund market . 2010 – September 2020: 24.4% SEK bn 250 Market share in Sweden of total outstanding mutual fund 210 volume: 11.7% 200 Handelsbanken Net inflows 2020 in Sweden: 150 Bank 2 . Handelsbanken: SEK +15.6bn . The market: SEK -7.8bn 115 100 Bank 3 Net inflows into mutual funds since Q3 2019: Bank 4 50 . Sweden: SEK +30.5bn 36 . UK: SEK +0.3bn 28 Bank 5 . Other countries: SEK +3.9bn 0 39% larger mutual fund net inflows in the Group Jan-Sep 2020 compared to Jan-Sep 2019 -50 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Jan-Sep (SEK 17.9bn compared to SEK 12.9bn) 2020
Source: Swedish Investment Fund Association. Mutual fund volumes include equity, mixed, hedge and fixed income funds. 17 Competitor banks included are Danske Bank, Nordea, SEB and Swedbank Handelsbanken asset management
Assets in Swedish Strong growth in mutual fund portfolio* Mutual fund fees’ share of total Private Banking driven by strong net inflows income almost doubled in 8 years
SEK bn SEK bn SEK m 800 4,500 10% 160 141 9% 140 700 4,000 3,500 8% 120 600 7% 3,000 100 500 6% 2,500 80 400 5% 2,000 60 49 300 4% 1,500 3% 40 200 1,000 2% 20 100 500 1% 0 0 0 0%
Accumulated net fund flows Market value excluding net fund flows Mutual fund fees % of total income
#1 30% 90% In Morningstar’s sustainability ranking … of mutual fund volumes Market share net inflows in managed according to enhanced Q3 2020 sustainability criteria
* Group mutual fund volumes, excluding Heartwood 18 ** September 2020, 12-month rolling Strengthened capitalisation
CET1 ratio Q3 2020 SEK bn 22% 150 . Stable capital position with CET1 ratio 5.4 percentage points above 21% 19.4% the regulatory minimum, with the previous proposed dividend for 20% 140 19% 130 2019 earnings still deducted from the capital base 18% 120 17% Target range: . The Swedish FSA indicated 0.5 percentage points lower capital 16% 110 15.0 – 17.0 15% 14.0% requirement with introduction of the banking package in Sweden – 100 14% including new risk weight floors on Swedish commercial real estate 13% 90 exposures 12% 80 11% 10% 135 70 . Increase of REA in the UK by SEK 65bn from 2021, but unclear 9% 60 8% impact on the FSA’s capital requirement 7% 98 50 6% 40 5% 4% 30 30 Sep 3% 20 Liquidity, % 2020 2% 10 LCR 149 1% NSFR 117 0% 0 Regulatory minimum* Common equity tier 1 capital
* Estimated requirement of the Swedish FSA at the end of Q3 2020 19 Credit losses
Q3 January - September
mkr mkr -120 -1,000 -915 -900 -100 -97 -800
-700 -684 -80
-600
-60 -500 -49 0.00% -400 0.05% -40 -300
-20 0.00% -200 0.03%
-100 0 Q2 Q3 0 2020 2020 Jan-Sep 2019 Jan-Sep 2020
20 Lowest share of “problem loans”
EBA Transparency exercise 2020: Non-performing exposures and performing exposures with forbearance measures as % of lending
Comparable European banks Comparable Nordic banks
2.5% 60% 2.3% 2.1%
50% 2.0% 1.8%
40% 1.5%
1.1% 30% 1.0% 1.0% 20% 0.5% 0.5% 10%
0% 0.0%
European banks
Bank 5 Bank 4
Bank 6 Bank 3 Non-performing % of loans Bank 2
Performing but forborne loans / loans
Handelsbanken Handelsbanken
Source: EBA 2020 Transparency exercise (based on data per Q4 2019) 21 Lowest share of unsecured lending
Distribution of lending to the public by comparable Nordic banks*
100% 13% 90% 22% 35% 33% 80% 47% 48% Other lending 70% 22% 39%
60% 15% 17%
50% Housing associations and property lending 20% 20% 40%
30% 57% 48% 52% 48% 20% Mortgage and collateralised lending, private 33% 32% 10%
0% Bank 6 Bank 5 Bank 4 Bank 3 Bank 2 HandelsbankenHandelsbanken
* Danske Bank, DNB, Nordea, SEB and Swedbank Q2 2020 22 Credit quality Q3
Expected credit losses Credit losses Credit losses Stage 3, net Q3
SEK m SEK m -500 -600
-450 Changed 40 macro assumptions -500 -400
-350 -400 Other effects -300 -92 Stage 1 and Stage 2 -250 -300 -49 mkr -200 Write-offs and 31 -200 -150 recoveries
-100 -100 -49 -28 Expected credit -50 -28 losses in Stage 3, net 0 0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2019 2019 2019 2019 2020 2020 2020 50 0 -50 -100 2019 2019 2019 2019 2020 2020 2020 SEK m
23 Stable credit portfolio over business cycles
Credit loss ratio Credit loss ratio 1990 – 1996 1997 – 2020
% % 11 1.1 Handelsbanken Handelsbanken 10 1.0 Comparable Swedish banks* Comparable Nordic banks** 9 0.9
8 0.8
7 0.7
6 0.6
5 0.5
4 0.4
3 0.3
2 0.2
1 0.1
0 0.0
-1 -0.1
1997 2001 2002 2003 2004 2008 2009 2010 2015 2016 2017 1998 1999 2000 2005 2006 2007 2011 2012 2013 2014 2018 2019
1995 1996 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 2020***
* Gota bank (nationalised 1992), Nordea (Nordbanken [nationalised 1992]) and SEB. Swedbank included from 1995 24 ** Danske Bank, DNB, Nordea, SEB, and Swedbank *** January - June Swedish branch operations
Norrbotten Centralort: Luleå Customer service: . Available advisory services
Västerbotten . Granting of mortgages Centralort: Umeå Jämtland Centralort: Östersund . Assistance in transactions
Västernorrland Centralort: Sundsvall Dalarna Centralort: Falun Gävleborg Centralort: Gävle
Uppsala Centralort: Uppsala
Värmland Centralort: Karlstad Västmanland Centralort: Västerås Örebro Stockholm Centralort: Örebro Centralort: Stockholm Södermanland Centralort: Nyköping
Västra Götaland Östergötland Centralort: Göteborg Jönköping Centralort: Linköping Centralort: Jönköping Gotland Centralort: Visby Halland Centralort: Halmstad Kronoberg Centralort: Växjö Kalmar Centralort: Kalmar Skåne Blekinge Centralort: Malmö Centralort: Kalskrona
25 Merging and strengthening of branches
Handelsbanken Kung Magnus väg
500 metres, 6 min walking distance
Handelsbanken Adelsgatan
26 Branch mergers in Sweden in line with changed customer behaviour Quote from SKI 2020 (Swedish arm of EPSI): . Handelsbanken is the bank with the highest rated bank app among private customers Customer satisfaction, Customer satisfaction, Number of branches Lending to the public private corporates Numer of branches SEK bn Index Index 500 1,500 71 70
450 70 69 1,400 +1.8 400 68 69 1,300 350 +3.8 67 68 300 +4.3 1,200 66 250 67 473 +1.6 1,433 70.4 65 69.4 1,100 68.7 200 376 66 67.6 64 150 1,0001,203 67.6 65 100 66.6 63 66 64.4 900 64 50 62
0 800 63 61 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 2016 2020 2016 2020 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Handelsbanken Handelsbanken Highest of SEB, Nordea and Swedbank Highest of SEB, Nordea and Swedbank
27 The environment constantly changes, we do it in step with the customers
Local presence with local … and available … are appreciated by … digital solutions… advice in branches… customer support… our customers 1:a
SKI (EPSI) 2020: . Sweden’s best bank app
. Best internet bank among comparable peers*
. Best telephone bank among comparable peers*
. Highest customer satisfaction among private and corporate customers among comparable peers*
* Comparable banks: Nordea, SEB and Swedbank. Source: SKI (EPSI) 28 The way to grow profitably
CB
Net fee and Lending NII Expenses commissions
Historical credit Other losses Lending to family- owned corporates, non-property
Property lending in ~27% the bank
Property lending in ~60% Other Stadshypotek Cards
Asset Management
29 The path to a more cost efficient bank
SEK 0.7bn: cost caps
Reduction of underlying cost SEK 1.5bn: announced Sep 2020 base by SEK 3.3bn
SEK 1.1bn: announced Oct 2019
SEK 22bn SEK 20bn
Period with SEK 1bn in total of increased IT investments
Expenses 31 Dec 2022** Q3 2019 – Q2 2020* Sustainable level
* Adjusted for non-recurring items 30 ** Annualised cost base Appendix
31 Q3 2020 compared to Q2 2020
Net fee and Net interest income* Operating profit** commission income* SEK m SEK m SEK m 7,000 8,000 2,700 2,650 7,800 2,600 +6% +5% 2,550 7,600 6,000 2,500 7,400 2,450 7,893 2,672 +14% 2,400 7,200 2,350 2,300 5,000 7,000 2,250 6,800 2,200 Q2 Q3 Q2 Q3 2020 2020 2020 2020 4,000
Expenses** Credit loss ratio CET1 ratio 3,000 5,735 SEK m -5,700 0.10% 19.6% -3% 19.4% -5,200 0.08% 2,000 19.2% -4,700 0.06% 19.0% +0.7% -points -4,200 -5,230 0.04% 18.8% 19.4% 1,000 -3,700 18.6% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 18.4% -3,200 -points -points0.00% 0.00% 18.2% 0 Q2 Q3 Q2 Q3 Q2 Q3 Q2 Q3 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020
* Adjusted for foreign exchange effects 32 ** Adjusted for foreign exchange effects and restructuring costs (SEK 1,508m Q3 2020) High customer satisfaction
Customer satisfaction Customer satisfaction Private Corporate
Handelsbanken Industry average Handelsbanken Industry average Index Index 85 80 81.2 77 75.3 75.3 78.4 79 80 75 Higher customer satisfaction than 75.2 75.7 75 73.7 70.3 the average in the industry: 71.8 70 68.7 69.1 69 68.8 67.6 70.4 69.7 67.5 68.9 70 67.9 65 63 - In all home markets 65 62.5 60.7 60 60 - Among both private and corporates 55 55
50 50
Source: SKI/EPSI 2020. 33 * Nordea, SEB och Swedbank IFRS9 and changed assumptions and stress
… of which identified as Lending Updated assumptions Q3 2020 exposed to covid-19 1) Positive adjustments of macro estimates compared to Q2 affect provisions across the whole credit portfolio
2) Identification and update of exposures to sectors exposed by Large corporate 135 covid-19: Sovereigns and . Increase of included volumes mainly in sectors ”Retail institutions 631 SME-… premises”, ”Hotel and accommodation” and ”Service to extraction” Other 60 . Migration of exposures in risk class 5 and higher to Excluded Property exposures and housing Stage 2 cooperatives covid-19-exposed Other counterparties 794 14 sectors 99 113 3) Extensive stress on 1-year PD on sectors exposed to covid-19
4) Stress on SME and household exposures excluding Mortgages 1 114 mortgages 5) Extended stress on Hotel exposures: . Increased PD-targets in stress . Stress property collateral with -50%
6) Increased probability of stress: . Q3 2020: 90% for UK exposures, 100% for Hotels and 80% for others . Q2 2020: 80% for all
34 SEK 567m in total in portfolio reservation
Lending Stressed exposures
100% Sectors exposed by covid-19:
90% . Retail premises . Hotel and accommodation 3.4% 80% . Specialised building and construction . Restaurant, catering and bar
70% . Automotive and motorcycle trade and repair . Land transport & transport in piping systems
60% . Retail, excluding automotives and motorcycles 2.3% . Maritime transport SEK 567m 50% . Manufacture of bituminous coal products and refined Stress total reserve petroleum products Jan-Sep 2020 . Sport, leisure and entertainment 40% . Artistic and cultural operations, and entertainment 2.1% . Other consumer services 30% . Travel agency and arrangement, etc. . Air transport 20% . SME corporates
10% . Household exposures (incl. SME retail, excl. mortgages) 0%
35 Income statement Compared to the previous year
Jan-Sep Jan-Sep Volume effect: SEK +935m SEK m 2020 2019 Change Net effect of changed margins in the home markets and Net interest income 23,745 24,045 -1% funding costs: SEK -1,304m Government fees: SEK +511m Net fee and commission income 7,902 7,931 0% Foreign exchange and day count effects: SEK -241m Net gains/losses on financial transactions 897 886 1% Risk result - insurance 116 97 20% Other income 157 229 -31% Total income 32,817 33,188 -1% Staff costs -11,673 -10,144 15% Other expenses -6,045 -6,045 0% Total expenses -17,718 -16,189 9% +2% adjusted for foreign exchange effects, Oktogonen and restructuring costs Profit before credit losses 15,099 16,999 -11% Net credit losses -684 -915 -25% Gains/losses on disposal of property, 8 17 -53% equipment and intangible assets -1% adjusted for foreign exchange effects, Oktogonen, restructuring costs and non- Operating profit 14,423 16,101 -10% recurring items* Taxes -3,205 -3,557 -10% Profit for the period 11,218 12,544 -11%
* Dividend VISA Sweden Q2 2019 (SEK 55m) 36 Low loan-to-values in property portfolio
Commercial property exposures Housing property exposures
SEK m SEK m 100,000 33% 160,000 53% 90,000 28% 140,000 80,000 24% 120,000 70,000 100,000 60,000
50,000 80,000 25%
40,000 60,000 30,000 9% 40,000 20,000 5% 6% 20,000 6% 5% 10,000 2% 4% 0 0 Sweden Norway UK the Netherlands Finland Denmark Group Sweden UK Finland Norway the Netherlands Denmark Group
LTV 49% 52% 46% 49% 50% 56% 49% LTV 50% 48% 79% 56% 54% 64% 52% Share with Share with LTV <75% 99.2% 98.8% 99.8% 99.9% 96.5% 97.9% 99.2% LTV <75% 99.7% 99.9% 87.2% 98.2% 99.3% 97.2% 98.7%
37 Change in NII from previous quarter
NII Q220, SEK m 7,622 Deposit volume 11 Lending volume -1 Net effect margins and funding costs 7 Day count effect 9 Mandatory government fees 57 Other -8 Handelsbanken Sweden 75 1.0% Deposit volume 12 Net effect of changed Lending volume -32 Net effect margins and funding costs 98 margins in home markets Day count effect 29 and funding costs: Foreign exchange effects -91 SEK +312m Mandatory government fees 7 Other -10 Home markets outside Sweden 13 0.2% Capital Markets -6 -0.1%
Net of funding costs and allocation to business segments 207 Liquidity portfolio -12 Foreign exchange effects 4 Other -4 Group Treasury 195 2.6%
Other units -6 -0.1%
Change in NII 271 3.6%
Of which: Volumes in home markets -10 -0.1% Net effect margins and funding costs in home markets 312 4.1% Liquidity portfolio -12 -0.2% Day count effect 33 0.4% Mandatory government fees 67 0.9% Foreign exchange effects -91 -1.2% Other -28 -0.4% NII Q320, SEK m 7,893
38 Change in NII from previous year
NII Jan-Sep 2019, SEK m 24,045 Deposit volume 134 Lending volume 385 Net effect margins and funding costs -295 Day count effect 9 Mandatory government fees 196 Other 56 Handelsbanken Sweden 485 2.0% Deposit volume 170 Net effect of changed Lending volume 246 Net effect margins and funding costs -770 margins in home markets Day count effect 28 and funding costs: Foreign exchange effects -258 SEK -1,304m Mandatory government fees 182 Other 13 Home markets outside Sweden -389 -1.6% Capital Markets -49 -0.2%
Net of funding costs and allocation to business segments -239 Liquidity portfolio -121 Foreign exchange effects -8 Other 17 Group Treasury -351 -1.5%
Other units 4 0.0%
Change in NII -300 -1.2%
Of which: Volumes in home markets 935 3.9% Net effect margins and funding costs in home markets -1,304 -5.4% Liquidity portfolio -121 -0.5% Day count effect 26 0.1% Mandatory government fees 511 2.1% Foreign exchange effects -267 -1.1% Other -80 -0.3% NII Jan-Sep 2020, SEK m 23,745
39 NII growth January – September compared to previous year
SEK m 25,500
25,000
24,500 935
-1,304
-241 24,000 511 -201
23,500 24,045 23,745
23,000 NII Jan-Sep 2019 Volumes home Margins and Mandatory Foreign exchange Other NII Jan-Sep 2020 markets funding in government effects home markets fees and day count
40 NII growth driven by business volumes
Sequential NII growth Q1 2017 – Q3 2020
SEK m 400
312 300
200
100 67 33
0 -10 -12 -28 -100 -91
-200
-300
-400 Volumes in home Net effect margins and Strengthened liquidity Liquidity portfolio Day count effect Mandatory government Foreign exchange Other markets funding costs in home reserve fees effects markets
41 Macro forecasts Commercial property price Annual GDP growth, Unemployment, Central bank interest rates development, House price development, forecasts % % % % % Scenario 2020-2025 Swe UK Nor Den Fin Swe UK Nor Den Fin Swe UK Nor Den Fin Swe UK Nor Den Fin Swe UK Nor Den Fin Applied weights 2020 -5.5 -9.0 -4.8 -5.1 -4.5 9.1 6.5 5.6 7.0 7.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 -11.6 -11.7 -15.8 -10.2 -14.0 3.3 1.7 1.0 -1.2 -1.6 2021 -0.1 1.3 -0.2 -1.1 -1.8 11.3 8.6 5.6 9.1 9.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 -11.7 -8.7 -16.2 -11.8 -13.0 -4.8 -9.9 -1.5 -7.4 -0.2 2022 2.2 2.2 1.3 1.1 1.0 10.7 8.1 5.0 8.5 8.5 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.7 1.4 -4.2 -2.4 -0.6 -1.5 -0.5 3.1 -4.8 0.9 Downturn 2023 2.8 2.1 2.2 2.0 2.1 10.0 7.5 4.5 8.3 8.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.6 2.6 2.7 3.1 3.6 3.3 0.5 6.5 1.7 1.1 2024 2.3 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.9 9.5 7.2 4.3 8.0 8.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.6 4.9 4.4 4.5 4.8 6.1 1.4 4.1 4.3 1.4 30% 2025 2.1 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.6 9.1 6.6 4.1 7.7 7.7 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.6 4.8 6.3 1.5 3.6 4.8 1.7 2020 -4.6 -8.0 -4.0 -4.2 -3.5 8.8 6.0 5.2 6.3 6.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 -6.8 -8.7 -5.9 -4.0 -6.6 4.7 2.9 2.5 0.8 -1.1 2021 3.7 5.1 3.5 2.8 2.0 9.4 6.5 3.4 7.0 7.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 -2.8 -0.1 -2.8 -2.8 -2.6 1.2 -2.1 4.6 1.1 1.6 2022 2.7 2.7 1.8 1.5 1.5 8.4 5.5 3.1 6.3 6.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.0 3.0 -0.8 0.6 2.0 1.3 2.5 2.8 -1.6 1.9 Neutral Q3 2020 2023 2.3 1.6 1.7 1.5 1.6 7.8 5.0 2.9 6.0 6.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.7 2.5 2.5 3.1 3.4 3.2 0.8 4.9 1.0 1.7 55% 2024 2.0 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.6 7.2 4.7 2.8 5.7 5.7 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.3 4.3 4.3 3.8 4.0 4.3 3.6 1.9 3.1 2.4 1.6 2025 2.1 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.6 6.9 4.4 2.8 5.5 5.5 0.5 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.5 4.4 4.1 3.9 4.0 4.2 3.5 2.0 3.2 3.0 1.7 2020 -3.8 -7.2 -3.1 -3.4 -2.6 8.5 5.5 4.9 6.0 6.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 -3.3 -6.4 -3.5 -1.8 -3.6 6.0 3.8 2.5 2.4 -0.7 2021 6.1 7.5 5.9 5.2 4.3 8.2 5.3 2.9 5.9 5.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 6.4 6.6 4.2 3.0 5.1 5.5 1.0 4.6 6.6 2.9 2022 3.7 3.6 2.8 2.5 2.5 7.4 4.7 2.7 5.5 5.5 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 8.9 10.8 4.2 4.2 6.1 4.3 7.4 2.8 2.2 2.7 Upturn 2023 2.3 1.6 1.7 1.5 1.6 6.9 4.4 2.6 5.3 5.3 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.3 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.6 2.4 2.6 4.9 1.5 2.0 15% 2024 1.7 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.3 6.7 4.3 2.7 5.5 5.5 0.7 1.1 0.7 0.7 0.7 2.8 1.5 1.6 2.2 2.5 2.4 1.8 3.1 1.0 1.7 2025 2.1 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.6 6.7 4.3 2.8 5.5 5.5 0.7 1.2 0.7 0.7 0.7 3.1 3.0 3.4 3.1 3.2 2.7 2.8 3.2 1.7 1.8
Commercial property price Annual GDP growth, Unemployment, Central bank interest rates development, House price development, forecasts % % % % % Scenario 2020-2025 Swe UK Nor Den Fin Swe UK Nor Den Fin Swe UK Nor Den Fin Swe UK Nor Den Fin Swe UK Nor Den Fin Applied weights 2020 -8.6 -13.2 -10.1 -9.4 -10.3 11.5 10.0 7.5 8.7 8.7 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 -12.8 -20.5 -9.5 -12.3 -12.9 -6.5 -9.9 -6.2 -8.3 -5.9 2021 0.0 1.3 0.4 0.5 0.0 13.0 10.0 5.9 11.1 11.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 -23.7 -10.2 -27.5 -16.1 -24.8 -6.4 -4.2 1.7 -4.6 -2.4 2022 2.9 2.0 2.3 2.2 2.0 11.5 8.7 5.6 9.6 9.6 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 -5.6 6.6 -6.6 -6.9 -1.8 0.5 3.9 6.1 1.8 2.3 Downturn 30% 2023 2.8 2.1 2.2 2.0 2.1 10.5 8.0 5.2 8.8 8.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.5 8.8 4.7 -0.3 7.6 6.2 4.7 5.8 4.1 3.5 2024 2.3 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.9 9.5 7.5 4.9 8.3 8.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 5.9 6.7 7.9 2.1 8.0 7.8 4.5 4.9 4.6 2.5 2025 2.1 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.6 9.0 7.0 4.7 7.8 7.8 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.1 0.0 8.1 4.7 4.9 1.4 4.7 6.3 3.9 4.5 4.3 2.0 2020 -4.6 -8.0 -5.8 -5.2 -6.0 9.5 8.0 6.5 6.7 6.7 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 -7.5 -15.3 -4.4 -9.0 -7.8 -2.7 -6.6 -2.5 -6.0 -2.2 2021 3.2 4.5 3.6 3.3 3.0 9.5 6.5 4.1 7.6 7.6 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 -12.3 6.3 -14.3 -6.3 -11.1 3.6 2.1 5.0 2.8 0.4 2022 2.4 1.5 1.8 1.7 1.5 8.3 5.5 3.9 6.4 6.4 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.5 4.6 -1.2 -2.4 1.9 5.7 4.1 6.5 3.1 3.1 55% Neutral Q2 2020 2023 2.3 1.6 1.7 1.5 1.6 7.8 5.0 3.6 6.0 6.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.0 4.5 3.8 1.1 5.6 5.2 4.5 5.2 2.9 3.2 2024 2.0 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.6 7.2 4.7 3.3 5.7 5.7 0.3 1.0 0.3 0.3 0.3 3.3 3.2 4.4 2.0 4.8 5.6 4.2 3.3 3.0 2.2 2025 2.1 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.6 6.9 4.4 3.0 5.5 5.5 0.8 1.5 0.8 0.5 0.5 5.9 3.2 2.7 0.6 2.6 3.9 3.4 3.3 3.0 1.7 2020 -2.4 -6.0 -3.9 -3.2 -4.1 9.0 7.5 6.2 6.2 6.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 -4.6 -10.9 -1.3 -7.1 -4.9 -1.0 -3.8 -2.5 -2.9 -0.7 2021 4.6 5.9 5.0 5.1 4.4 8.2 5.2 3.5 6.3 6.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 -5.4 8.4 -8.2 -2.1 -5.7 7.9 4.0 5.0 6.5 2.0 2022 1.9 1.0 1.3 1.2 1.0 7.5 4.7 3.6 5.6 5.6 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.0 6.9 1.3 0.1 3.9 5.7 4.1 6.5 3.3 3.6 15% Upturn 2023 2.0 1.3 1.4 1.2 1.3 7.1 4.4 3.3 5.4 5.4 0.3 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.3 4.3 4.5 3.7 2.4 6.0 5.4 4.2 5.2 2.0 2.9 2024 1.7 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.3 6.9 4.4 3.2 5.4 5.4 0.7 1.4 0.7 0.7 0.7 2.2 0.3 2.4 1.8 3.9 5.0 3.4 3.3 1.7 1.9 2025 2.1 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.6 6.7 4.2 2.9 5.3 5.3 1.0 1.7 1.0 0.7 0.7 4.3 2.0 1.3 -0.1 1.7 4.2 3.8 3.3 2.4 1.7
Yellow cell = changed input from previous quarter 42 PD stress >4.5 times but collateralised lending leads to modest LGD levels
Exposure, on- balance* % of total in PD before PD with Increase in Sectors (SEK m) Group LGD stress stress reserve, SEK m Retail premises 37,179 1.3% 15% 0.2% 0.6% 17 Probability of default (PD): Hotel and accommodation 30,862 1.1% 26% 0.4% 3.0% 166 . Increase in 12-month PD in one year by more than 4.5 times for exposures to Specialised building and construction 6,122 0.2% 20% 0.8% 4.8% 45 Retail, excluding automotives and motorcycles 3,595 0.1% 18% 0.9% 5.2% 31 sectors exposed by covid-19 Manufacture of bituminous coal products and refined petroleum products 2,493 0.1% 20% 0.5% 3.4% 21 Automotive and motorcycle trade and repair 4,262 0.1% 19% 0.7% 4.0% 25 Restaurant, catering and bar 3,572 0.1% 17% 0.6% 3.5% 14 Land transport & transport in piping systems 3,668 0.1% 23% 0.7% 4.4% 24 Maritime transport 2,185 0.1% 30% 0.1% 0.8% 3 Sport, leisure and entertainment 2,081 0.1% 20% 1.2% 6.4% 16 Artistic, cultural, and entertainment 1,678 0.1% 15% 0.3% 1.3% 2 Service for extraction 1,041 0.0% 40% 0.4% 2.6% 6 Loss given default (LGD): Other consumer services 430 0.0% 18% 0.8% 3.7% 2 Travel agency and arrangements, etc. 138 0.0% 23% 1.4% 9.0% 3 . LGD below 20% for exposures to sectors Air transport 49 0.0% 20% 0.9% 5.3% 1 exposed by covid-19 Other 21 0.0% 10% 0.4% 2.6% 0
Sectors exposed by covid-19 99,373 3.4% 19.2% 0.4% 2.6% 425
SME corporates 67,889 2.3% 26% 0.5% 0.7% 28 Households (incl. SME-retail, excl. mortgages) 59,941 2.1% 22% 0.8% 2.2% 163 Total 227,203 7.8% 567
* Some individual exposures excluded in the assessment of exposed exposures 43 Credit losses
SEK m Q120 Q220 Q320 1) Expected credit losses Stage 3, on and off balance -84 -11 -28 . Continued low Stage 3 provisions, net
Change in model-based provision Stage 1 and Stage 2: Update of macroeconomic scenarios and risk factors -203 40 . Upward-adjusted macro estimates reduce need for reserves Transfer of exposures in exposed sectors from Stage 1 to Stage 2* -37 -7 Change in probablity of default in portfolio at beginning of quarter (net rating changes) -70 -6 Effects of changes in exposures (existing, new and terminated exposures) 154 44 . Reduced reserves due to change of net exposures Other in Stage 1 and Stage 2 30 25 Model-based credit losses in Stage 1 and Stage 2 -22 -126 96
Expert-based provision related to covid-19 (stress of ECL 12 months, in Stage 1 and Stage 2): Provision for stress in exposed sectors according to assumptions in Q1 -734 -562 -564 . Increased inclusions of exposures in exposed sectors than in Q2 Exclusion of mortgages 65 Exclusion of previously included counterparties 46 Extended list of identified exposed sectors (retail property) -48 Provision for stress of Group exposures towards SME corporates (excl. properties) -25 Extended stress on Group exposures to hotel companies -100 . Expanded stress on hotel company exposures compared to Q2 Reduction, based on 60% probablity for stress 294 Reduction, based on 80% probablity for stress 105 Reduction, based on 80% probablity for stress, 90% in the UK and 100% for hotels 97 . Higher weighting of probability of stress than in Q2 Expert-based calculation of provision -440 -419 -567 Expert-based credit losses in Stage 1 and Stage 2 (change in provision versus previous quarter) -440 21 -148
2) Expected credit losses in Stage 1 and Stage 2, on and off balance -462 -105 -52 . Additional reserve need after quarterly update
3) Write-offs -13 -22 -19 . Positive net of write-offs and recoveries 4) Recoveries 21 41 50
Net credit losses (1+2+3+4) -538 -97 -49
* Expert-based assessment of significant increase in credit risk 44 Change in CET1 from previous quarter
Change in CET1, % Change in REA, SEK bn
Capital REA % SEK bn
19.6 706
-0.1 -0.6 19.4 704
0.2 -3.3 19.2 0.0 0.0 702 0.1 0.0 0.8
19.0 -0.2 0.2 700 -2.3 0.4 18.8 698 705 -2.2 19.4 18.6 696
18.4 694 18.7 697
18.2 692
18.0 690 CET1 ratio Earnings Deducted IAS 19 Volume Net effect Credit risk Foreign Other CET1 ratio REA, Volume Foreign exchange Net effect Credit risk Other effects Other REA, Q2 2020, % for the dividends change different migration exchange effects, Q3 2020, % Q2 2020 change effects different migration credit risks effects, Q3 2020 period quality of effects net quality of net inflows and inflows and outflows in outflows in exposures exposures
45 Change in CET1 ratio from previous quarter, CRR/CRD IV
Common equity tier 1 ratio Q2 2020, % 18.7 Change, percentage points: Common equity tier 1 capital 0.5 Earnings for the period 0.4 Deducted dividends -0.2 Foreign exchange effects 0.0 IAS 19 0.2 Other and rounding 0.1 Exposure volume 0.0 Volume change 0.0 Foreign exchange effects 0.0 Net effect different quality of inflows and outflows in exposures 0.1 Credit risk migration in the lending portfolio 0.0 Other effects, net 0.1
Change in common equity tier 1 ratio 0.7 Common equity tier 1 ratio Q3 2020, % 19.4
46 Change in CET 1 ratio from previous year, CRR/CRD IV
Common equity tier 1 ratio Q3 2019, % 17.4 Change, percentage points: Common equity tier 1 capital 1.0 Earnings for the period 2.0 Deducted dividends -0.9 Conversions of staff convertibles 0.1 Foreign exchange effects -0.4 IAS 19 0.1 Other and rounding 0.1 Exposure volume -0.1 Volume change -0.5 Foreign exchange effects 0.4 Net effect different quality of inflows and outflows in exposures 0.4 Credit risk migration in the lending portfolio -0.3 SME supporting factor 0.5 Other effects, net 0.5
Change in common equity tier 1 ratio 2.0 Common equity tier 1 ratio Q3 2020, % 19.4
47 Non-encumbered assets, NEA 30 September 2020
Accumulated coverage ratio in % of unsecured SEK bn NEA funding*
Holdings with central banks and securities in the liquidity portfolio*** 718 78% Mortgage loans 729 157% Other household lending 172 176% Property company lending lowest risk class (1-3) 266 205% Other corporate lending lowest risk class (1-3) 131 219% Loans to credit institutions lowest risk class (1-3) 13 220% Other corporate lending 307 254% Other assets 36 258% Total non-encumbered assets (NEA) 2,372 258% Encumbered assets without underlying liabilities** 63 Encumbered assets with underlying liabilities 903 Total assets, Group 3,338
* Issued short-term and long-term non-secured funding and liabilities to credit institutions 48 ** Over-collateralisation in cover pool (OC) *** Value eligible as collateral in central banks Long-term bond funding
Jan-Sep Jan-Sep Long-term bond issuance, SEK bn 2020 2019 Change Senior bonds 36 28 8
Covered bonds 90 120 -30
Tier 2
AT1 9 5 4
Total 135 153 -18
International bond issuance 2020
Issue Date Issuer Currency Amount (m) Spread/coupon Maturity Deal Type Feb 11, 2020 Svenska Handelsbanken EUR 1,000 MS +58bp Feb 18, 2030 Senior non-preferred*
Apr 6, 2020 Svenska Handelsbanken EUR 1,250 MS +135bp Apr 15, 2025 Senior unsecured
Jun 16, 2020 Stadshypotek NOK 6,000 3M Nibor+35bp Jun 24, 2025 Covered bond Norwegian pool
Jun 23, 2020 Svenska Handelsbanken USD 1,250 T+53bp Jun 23, 2023 Senior unsecured
Sep 29, 2020 Svenska Handelsbanken USD 500 4.375% Mar 1, 2026 (1st call) Additional Tier1 PNC6.5
Sep 29, 2020 Svenska Handelsbanken USD 500 4.750% Mar 1, 2031 (1st call) Additional Tier1 PNC10.5
* Bond rating: A3/A/AA (Moody’s/S&P/Fitch) 49 Sweden
Income, expenses and C/I ratio*
SEK m C/I ratio 30,000 60% C/I ratio Q320, 12-month rolling Income, Expenses, = 36.8% CAGR = 3.7% CAGR = 3.3% Stable volume
25,000 50% growth
20,000 40% Income growing faster than expenses
15,000 30%
10,000 20% C/I ratio Q3 2020 35.0%
5,000 10%
0 0% Q409 Q411 Q413 Q415 Q417 Q419
* 12-month rolling. Adjusted for non-recurring items 50 Other Nordic home markets*
NOK m C/I ratio DKK m C/I ratio EUR m C/I ratio 5,000 100% 2,200 100% C/I ratio Q320, 12-month rolling C/I ratio Q320, 12-month rolling 250 C/I ratio Q320, 12-month rolling 100% = 38.9% = 58.6% = 56.1% 4,500 Income, CAGR = 4.6% 90% 2,000 Income, CAGR = 3.3% 90% Income, CAGR = 4.3% 90% Expenses, CAGR = 6.1% Expenses, CAGR = 2.4% Expenses, CAGR = 4.3% 1,800 4,000 80% 80% 200 80% 1,600 3,500 70% 70% 70% 1,400 3,000 60% 60% 150 60% 1,200 2,500 50% 50% 50% 1,000 2,000 40% 40% 100 40% 800 30% 30% 1,500 30% 600
20% 50 20% 1,000 20% 400
10% 500 10% 200 10%
0 0% 0 0% 0 0% Q409 Q411 Q413 Q415 Q417 Q419 Q409 Q411 Q413 Q415 Q417 Q419 Q409 Q411 Q413 Q415 Q417 Q419
C/I ratio Q3 2020 = 38.9% C/I ratio Q3 2020 = 61.2% C/I ratio Q3 2020 = 54.5%
* 12-month rolling. Adjusted for non-recurring items 51 UK and the Netherlands*
GBP m GBP m EUR m EUR m
700 250 120 35 Operating profit, CAGR = 26.1% Operating profit, CAGR = 19.8% Income, CAGR = 19% Income, CAGR = 20% Expenses, CAGR = 18% Expenses, CAGR = 21% 600 30 100 200
500 25 80
150 400 20 60
300 15 100 40 200 10
50 20 100 5
0 0 0 0 Q409 Q411 Q413 Q415 Q417 Q419 Q413 Q415 Q417 Q419
C/I ratio Q3 2020 = 62.9% C/I ratio Q3 2020 = 67.4%
* 12-month rolling. Adjusted for non-recurring items 52 Disclaimer
. Certain statements made in this presentation are forward looking statements. Such statements are based on current expectations and are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results and performance to differ materially from any expected future results or performance, express or implied, by the forward looking statements. Factors that might cause forward looking statements to differ materially from actual results include, among other things, regulatory and economic factors. Handelsbanken Group assumes no responsibility to update any of the forward looking statements contained herein.
. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made or given by or on behalf of Handelsbanken Group or its directors, officers or employees or any other person as to the accuracy, completeness or fairness of the information or opinions contained in this presentation. None of Handelsbanken Group or any of its directors, officers or employees nor any other person accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss howsoever arising from any use of this presentation or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith.
. This presentation does not constitute or form part of any offer or invitation to sell or issue, or any solicitation of any offer to purchase or subscribe for, any securities of Handelsbanken Group, nor shall it or any part of it nor the fact of its distribution form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract or investment decision.
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