Demographic Study Bedford Central School District January 2016
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Demographic Study for the Bedford Central School District January 2016 Prepared By: Richard S. Grip, Ed.D. 2 Table of Contents Page Executive Summary ................................................................................................ 3 Introduction ......................................................................................................... 7 Demographic Characteristics of the Geographical Area Served by the Bedford Central School District .................................................................. 7 District Overview ........................................................................................... 9 Explanation of the Cohort-Survival Ratio Method .................................................. 11 Historical Enrollment Trends ................................................................................... 12 Student Withdrawals and New Registrants ............................................................ 17 Non-Public School Enrollment .............................................................................. 18 Kindergarten Replacement ...................................................................................... 20 Birth Data ......................................................................................................... 22 New Residential Housing ........................................................................................ 27 1. Town of Bedford ..................................................................................... 27 2. Town of Mount Kisco ............................................................................. 28 3. Town of New Castle ................................................................................ 28 4. Town of North Castle .............................................................................. 29 5. Town of Pound Ridge ............................................................................. 30 Distribution of Homes by Year Built .................................................................. 31 Home Sales ........................................................................................... 32 Enrollment Projections ........................................................................................... 33 Projected Enrollments by Grade Configuration ....................................................... 37 Elementary School Projections .............................................................................. 38 Bedford Hills Elementary School ............................................................. 39 Bedford Village Elementary School ......................................................... 40 Mount Kisco Elementary School .............................................................. 41 Pound Ridge Elementary School ............................................................... 42 West Patent Elementary School ................................................................ 43 Subgroup Projections ............................................................................................. 44 Economically Disadvantaged Students ...................................................... 44 Special Education Students ....................................................................... 49 English Language Learners ....................................................................... 54 Geocoding and Mapping ......................................................................................... 59 Appendix ........................................................................................... 64 3 Executive Summary At the request of the Bedford Central School District (“Bedford Central”), Statistical Forecasting LLC completed a demographic study where the main objective was to compute grade-by-grade enrollment projections from 2016-17 through 2025-26, a ten-year period. In addition, the following tasks were completed: • Analyze community population trends and age structure, birth and fertility rates, and new housing starts. • Project enrollments for three separate subgroups: English Language Learners, special education students, and economically disadvantaged students. • Geocode, or electronically “pin-map,” student addresses from both the 2011-12 and 2015-16 school years to show the five-year changes in the relative concentrations of where students live in the five elementary attendance areas. Historical Enrollment Trends As of October 2015, PK-12 enrollment in Bedford Central was 4,370 students. Enrollment increased in the district through 2004-05 before remaining fairly stable through 2011-12. After peaking in 2012-13 at 4,412 students, enrollment has declined. At the PK-5 level, enrollments have declined in each of the last three years. For grades 6-8 at Fox Lane Middle School, enrollments have been stable for the last ten years, fluctuating from 966 to 1,016, a range of 50 students. Finally, at Fox Lane High School, which contains grades 9-12, enrollment has been increasing, in general, for the last decade. The overall decline in enrollment in the last three years may be partially due to negative kindergarten replacement, which occurs when the number of graduating 12 th grade students is larger than the number of kindergarten students replacing them in the next year. In 2015-16, the loss of students due to kindergarten replacement is 43 students, as 299 twelfth graders graduated in 2014-15 and were replaced by 256 kindergarten students in 2015-16. Approximately 15% of the Bedford Central resident population attends non-public schools. Nearly 70% of Bedford Central’s non-public school population attends one of three schools: The Rippowam Cisqua School, Yeshiva Farm Settlement School, or St. Patrick School. Birth Rates The number of births, which is used to project kindergarten enrollments, has been declining in Bedford Central. Births have declined from a high of 425 in 2002 to a low of 291 in 2013, which is a loss of 31.5%. While births have also declined in Westchester County from 12,807 in 2002 to 10,557 in 2013, the percentage decline is much smaller at 17.6%. Regarding fertility rates, Bedford Central’s rates are lower than those of both Westchester County and the State of New York. 4 The 2000 and 2010 age-sex diagrams for Bedford Central help to explain the decline in the birth rate. From 2000 to 2010, the greatest numerical losses for females occurred in the 30- 34 and 35-39 age groups, which correspond to the ages when most females have their children. The combination of low fertility rates and a low percentage of females in these age groups have likely led to the declining birth rate. Potential New Housing Planning and Building Departments were contacted in Bedford, Mount Kisco, New Castle, North Castle, and Pound Ridge regarding potential new housing units and historical building permits. Since the district’s last demographic study was conducted in February 2014, there has been little change in the status of the proposed residential developments. Many developments have a number of units that have been built and are occupied. The proposed residential construction in the five communities is not expected to have an impact on the forthcoming enrollment projections. Home Sales The number of homes sales in Bedford Central declined sharply in 2008 and 2009 during the banking and financial crises. After reaching a low of 130 home sales in 2009, the number of sales has been steadily increasing. As of mid-December 2015, there were 218 home sales in Bedford Central. This value is likely to increase after additional homes close at the end of the month. The number of home sales in 2014 and 2015 are similar to the number that occurred in 2006 and 2007 prior to the banking and financial crises, indicating a recovery in the housing market. Enrollment Projections Enrollments were computed for a ten-year period, 2016-17 through 2025-26. It should be noted that a five-year projection is much more reliable than a ten-year projection. Since birth data are used to project kindergarten students five years later, the ten-year projection in years 6- 10 relies on estimated birth counts in order to project the number of kindergarten students. For this reason, elementary projections are much more susceptible to higher error rates in a ten-year projection as compared to middle or high school projections, which rely on either children that have already been born or that are currently enrolled in the district. Therefore, the projections in years 6-10 should be used with caution, particularly the elementary projections, due to their lower reliability. Districtwide, enrollments are projected to decline throughout the ten-year period. In 2020-21, which is the end of the first five years of the projection period, enrollment is projected to be 3,963, which would be a decline of 407 students from the 2015-16 enrollment of 4,370 students. At the end of the ten-year projection period in 2025-26, enrollment is projected to be 3,622, which would be a decline of 748 students from the 2015-16 enrollment. For grades PK-5, enrollment is projected to decline through 2020-21 before stabilizing. The stabilization in enrollment is related to holding the projected number of births from 2014- 5 2020 nearly constant, which results in constant kindergarten counts five years later and subsequent elementary grades. Enrollment is projected to be 1,637 in 2020-21, which would represent a decline of 285 students from the 2015-16 enrollment of 1,922 students. Enrollment is projected to be fairly constant