Negotiating Peace in Deeply Divided Societies Negotiating Peace in Deeply Divided Societies A Set of Simulations Edited by RADHA KUMAR Copyright © Delhi Policy Group, New Delhi, 2009 All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced or utilized in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including pho- tocopying, recording or by any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher. First published in 2009 by SAGE Publications India Pvt Ltd B1/I-1 Mohan Cooperative Industrial Area Mathura Road, New Delhi 110 044, India www.sagepub.in SAGE Publications Inc 2455 Teller Road Thousand Oaks, California 91320, USA SAGE Publications Ltd 1 Oliver’s Yard, 55 City Road London EC1Y 1SP, United Kingdom SAGE Publications Asia-Pacifi c Pte Ltd 33 Pekin Street #02-01 Far East Square Singapore 048763 Published by Vivek Mehra for SAGE Publications India Pvt Ltd, Photo- typeset in 10.5/12.5 Utopia by Diligent Typesetter, Delhi and printed at Chaman Enterprises, New Delhi. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Negotiating peace in deeply divided societies: a set of simulations/ edited by Radha Kumar. p. cm. Includes index. 1. Peace-building—Case studies. 2. Confl ict management—Case studies. I. Kumar, Radha. JZ5538.N44 303.6'6—dc22 2009 2008048187 ISBN: 978-81-7829-882-5 (HB) The SAGE Team: Elina Majumdar, Meena Chakravorty, Amrita Saha and Trinankur Banerjee Table of Contents Acknowledgements vii Introduction viii 1. Northern Ireland 1 The Belfast (Good Friday) Agreement: Final Round John Doyle and Adrian Guelke Simulation Focus 1 Simulation Exercise 2 Conflict Backgrounder 15 Timeline 30 Documents 34 2. Bosnia–Herzegovina 65 Renegotiating the Constitution: Dayton 2000 Radha Kumar and Anjali Puri Simulation Focus 65 Simulation Exercise 66 Conflict Backgrounder 74 Timeline 95 Documents 98 Maps 133 3. Abstract Simulation 136 Ending the Violence Radha Kumar Simulation Focus 136 Simulation Exercise 137 vi Negotiating Peace in Deeply Divided Societies 4. The Naga Conflict 148 Towards Resolution Udayon Mishra Simulation Focus 148 Simulation Exercise 149 Conflict Backgrounder 160 Timeline 174 Documents 189 5. Jammu and Kashmir 247 Frameworks for a Settlement Radha Kumar and Ellora Puri Simulation Focus 247 Simulation Exercise 248 Conflict Backgrounder 263 Timeline 283 Documents 299 6. Abstract Simulation 356 Humanitarian Intervention: The Role of the International Community Radha Kumar Simulation Focus 356 Simulation Exercise 357 Conflict Backgrounder 372 Maps 382 Appendix: Note for Simulation Setters 385 About the Editors and Contributors 386 Index 390 Acknowledgements ach of these simulations was tested and rewritten through Etrial runs in seven different Indian universities over a pe- riod of two years. There were 42 trial runs in all, conducted as part of a Delhi Policy Group project on ‘Developing Du- rable Peace Processes and Partners’, funded by the EU–India Economic Cross Cultural Programme (ECCP). Special thanks are owed to the University Coordinators who ran our simula- tions with their students, Professor Udayon Mishra and Rajib Handique of Dibrugarh University, Dr Tasneem Minai and Dr Kaushikee of Jamia Millia Islamia, Professor Siddiq Wahid and Professor Ranjit Kalra of Jammu University, Professor Sanjukta Bhattacharya and Professor Partha Prathim Basu of Jadavpur University, Professor Afzal Qadri of Kashmir Uni- versity, Professor Parthasarathy of IIT Mumbai and Professor Shahjehan of the Tata Institute of Social Studies. Special thanks are also due to Ellora Puri for her early work in assembling the simulations and to the Delhi Policy Group team that ensured the trial runs for the simulations took place: Rajneesh Verma, Anita Ganesan and Imran Nabi Dar. Finally, for the 400 students who participated in the simula- tions, thank you for making us believe in their worth. Introduction Radha Kumar p until the 19th century, simulation was generally seen Uas a deliberate or wicked act of deception in the Western Christian tradition, ‘as it is symylacion of holynes, be whiche is double wickidnes’ (Wyclif 1888: 302). It was distinguished from other forms of deception thus: ‘a Deceiving by Words is commonly called a Lye, and a Deceiving by Actions, Gestures, or Behaviour, is called Simulation’, said the theologian Rob- ert South in 1688 (South 1697: 525), and in 1711, the satirical writer Richard Steele clarified that ‘Simulation is a Pretence of what is not, and Dissimulation a Concealment of what is’(Steele 1953: 1). Eastern traditions had a more ambiguous view. They dis- tinguished between simulation as possession and simulation as deception. Possession by divine spirits was and continues to be treated as a sign of holiness rather than deception by most Hindus. At the secular level, simulation is also used as a means of sharing in an ordeal in some tribal regions of India, such as the Santhal Parganas, where men are encouraged to simulate childbirth as their wives undergo the actual process. On simulation as deception, both the 4th century Hindu text, Kautilya’s Arthashastra (laws of political economy) and the 5th century Chinese martial handbook, Sun Tzu’s Art of War, expound on the manifold uses of simulation and dissimulation against the enemy. Moreover, ancient Hindu literature debated whether and when deception was morally permissible in war. In both the Mahabharata and the Bhagavad Gita, deception was allowed only in ex- ceptional circumstances, such as response to treachery, even during war. Introduction ix Of course, when it came to war, simulation and dissimula- tion were considered essential tools in the Western Christian tradition too, and not only for war. Lies, said Machiavelli in the 17th century, were essential to diplomacy; a hundred years later, Clausewitz described war as merely the exten- sion of foreign policy. More often than not, states have gone to war because they misinterpreted simulation or dissimu- lation by another state, even though that state may have adopted tactics of pretence or concealment as a form of self- defence. Analytically, simulation began to be dissociated from decep- tion in the 19th century. According to the French philosopher Jean Baudrillard, simulation first began to be used as a tool for learning in the field of medicine—in particular, psycho- analysis—in the mid-19th century. Baudrillard is caustic in his criticism of alienation and regression as blurring the lines between reality and ‘irreality’. He similarly critiques military simulations as substituting virtual war for real war (Baudril- lard 1988: 166–84). Baudrillard’s criticism is pertinent at a time when the pop- ularity of war games using computer-based simulation is multiplying by leaps and bounds across cultures and nations, especially amongst school children. But not all simulations make the same claims to reality. In the social sciences, simulation crept in as a technique in the 1960s and it has generally been used to predict or frame the behaviour of groups and markets, though Axelrod and Riolo have both used computer-generated simulations to de- rive principles of cooperative behaviour (Axelrod 1997: 203– 26; Riolo 1997). In the policy field, an increasing number of strategic and defence planners use computer-based simula- tion for prediction and discovery. Humanitarian agencies like the UNHCR use mapping techniques of refugee movement that draw on simulation to prepare for protection. At the same time policy, diplomatic and humanitarian cir- cles have also begun to explore the uses of simulation as train- ing exercises. Simulations based on historic or current peace negotiations do not claim statistical accuracy or predictive capability, let alone virtual reality. If anything, they sharpen x Negotiating Peace in Deeply Divided Societies awareness of human fallibility because they help analysts, policy-makers and activists put themselves in the shoes of key actors in order to gain a more effective understanding of the costs and opportunities of making war or peace. The six simulation exercises published in this book are mostly based on actual or potential negotiations in ongoing peace processes, but they dispense with some of the rules of role-play. The overarching theme of the simulations is to learn from peace negotiations in societies that have been violently divided along ethnic or religious lines by compet- ing claims to self-determination. However, only two of the simulations replicate actual negotiations as they took place (Northern Ireland and Jammu and Kashmir). Two others envisage an imaginary stage in ongoing negotiations (Bosnia– Herzegovina and Nagaland), and two are abstract simula- tions that address critical contemporary debates on ending violence and humanitarian intervention. This combination permits participants to focus on the dif- ferent stages of peace-making and peace-building in deeply divided societies, the make or break issues that are involved, and the changing roles that key actors play. Each simulation deals with a specific aspect of self-determination conflicts and their resolution. Taken together, the six cover the follow- ing: the early stage of ending the violence to pave the way for a political settlement, the middle stage of trust-building through addressing the root causes, the next to last stage of negotiation and compromise to reach a formal agreement, and the post-agreement stage of reconstruction and recon- ciliation. The simulations do not, however, appear in that order in this book. Rather, they follow an order