EMBARGOED FROM PUBLIC RELEASE UNTIL AUGUST 7 Prepublication Copy – Subject to Further Editorial Correction Visions into Voyages for Planetary Sciences in the Decade 2013-2022: A Midterm Review ADVANCE COPY NOT FOR PUBLIC RELEASE BEFORE August 7, 2018 at 11:00 A.M. EST ___________________________________________________________________________________ PLEASE CITE AS A REPORT OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES OF SCIENCES, ENGINEERING, AND MEDICINE Committee on the Review of Progress Toward Implementing the Decadal Survey Vision and Voyages for Planetary Sciences Space Studies Board Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences A Consensus Study Report of PREPUBLICATION COPY – SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION EMBARGOED FROM PUBLIC RELEASE UNTIL AUGUST 7 THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 This project was supported by Contract NNH06CE15B with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and Grant AST-1050744 with the National Science Foundation. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the view of any organization or agency that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-XXXXX-X International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-XXXXX-X Digital Object Identifier: https://doi.org/10.17226/25186 Copies of this report are available free of charge from: Space Studies Board National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 Additional copies of this report are available for sale from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Keck 360, Washington, DC 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313; http://www.nap.edu. Copyright 2018 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America Suggested citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. Visions into Voyages for Planetary Sciences in the Decade 2013-2022: A Midterm Review. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: https://doi.org/10.17226/25186. PREPUBLICATION COPY – SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION EMBARGOED FROM PUBLIC RELEASE UNTIL AUGUST 7 The National Academy of Sciences was established in 1863 by an Act of Congress, signed by President Lincoln, as a private, nongovernmental institution to advise the nation on issues related to science and technology. Members are elected by their peers for outstanding contributions to research. Dr. Marcia McNutt is president. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to bring the practices of engineering to advising the nation. Members are elected by their peers for extraordinary contributions to engineering. Dr. C. D. Mote, Jr., is president. 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PREPUBLICATION COPY – SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION EMBARGOED FROM PUBLIC RELEASE UNTIL AUGUST 7 Consensus Study Reports published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine document the evidence-based consensus on the study’s statement of task by an authoring committee of experts. Reports typically include findings, conclusions, and recommendations based on information gathered by the committee and the committee’s deliberations. Each report has been subjected to a rigorous and independent peer-review process and it represents the position of the National Academies on the statement of task. Proceedings published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine chronicle the presentations and discussions at a workshop, symposium, or other event convened by the National Academies. The statements and opinions contained in proceedings are those of the participants and are not endorsed by other participants, the planning committee, or the National Academies. For information about other products and activities of the National Academies, please visit www.nationalacademies.org/about/whatwedo. PREPUBLICATION COPY – SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION EMBARGOED FROM PUBLIC RELEASE UNTIL AUGUST 7 COMMITTEE ON THE REVIEW OF PROGRESS TOWARD IMPLEMENTATING THE DECADAL SURVEY VISION AND VOYAGES FOR PLANETARY SCIENCES LOUISE M. PROCKTER, Lunar and Planetary Institute, Co-Chair JOSEPH H. ROTHENBERG, Former NASA Associate Administrator for Space Flight and Goddard Center Director, Co-Chair DAVID A. BEARDEN, The Aerospace Corporation SCOTT BOLTON, Southwest Research Institute BARBARA A. COHEN, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center ANDREW M. DAVIS, University of Chicago MELINDA DARBY DYAR, Mount Holyoke College ALAN W. HARRIS, MoreData! Inc. AMANDA R. HENDRIX, Planetary Science Institute BRUCE M. JAKOSKY, University of Colorado, Boulder MARGARET G. KIVELSON, NAS,1 University of California, Los Angeles SCOTT L. MURCHIE, Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory JUAN PEREZ-MERCADER, Harvard University MARK P. SAUNDERS, Independent Consultant SUZANNE SMREKAR, Jet Propulsion Laboratory DAVID J. STEVENSON, NAS, California Institute of Technology Staff DWAYNE DAY, Study Director MIA BROWN, Research Associate DIONNA WISE, Program Coordinator 1 Member, National Academy of Sciences. PREPUBLICATION COPY – SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION v EMBARGOED FROM PUBLIC RELEASE UNTIL AUGUST 7 SPACE STUDIES BOARD FIONA HARRISON, NAS,2 California Institute of Technology, Chair ROBERT D. BRAUN, NAE,3 University of Colorado, Boulder, Vice Chair DAVID N. SPERGEL, NAS, Princeton University and Center for Computational Astrophysics at the Simons Foundation, Vice Chair JAMES G. ANDERSON, NAS, Harvard University JEFF M. BINGHAM, Consultant JAY C. BUCKEY, Geisel School of Medicine at Dartmouth College MARY LYNNE DITTMAR, Dittmar Associates JOSEPH FULLER, JR., Futron Corporation THOMAS R. GAVIN, California Institute of Technology SARAH GIBSON, National Center for Atmospheric Research WESLEY T. HUNTRESS, Carnegie Institution of Washington ANTHONY C. JANETOS, Boston University CHRYSSA KOUVELIOTOU, NAS, George Washington University DENNIS P. LETTENMAIER, NAE, University of California, Los Angeles ROSALY M. LOPES, Jet Propulsion Laboratory DAVID J. MCCOMAS, Princeton University LARRY PAXTON, Johns Hopkins University, Applied Physics Laboratory SAUL PERLMUTTER, NAS, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory ELIOT QUATAERT, University of California, Berkeley BARBARA SHERWOOD LOLLAR, University of Toronto HARLAN E. SPENCE, University of New Hampshire MARK H. THIEMENS, NAS, University of California, San Diego MEENAKSHI WADHWA, Arizona State University Staff RICHARD ROWBERG, Acting Director MICHAEL H. MOLONEY, Director (until April 2018) CARMELA J. CHAMBERLAIN, Administrative Coordinator TANJA PILZAK, Manager, Program Operations CELESTE A. NAYLOR, Information Management Associate MARGARET KNEMEYER, Financial Officer ANTHONY BRYANT, Financial Assistant 2 Member, National Academy of Sciences. 3 Member, National Academy of Engineering. PREPUBLICATION COPY – SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION vi EMBARGOED FROM PUBLIC RELEASE UNTIL AUGUST 7 Preface In spring 2011 the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine produced a report outlining the next decade in planetary sciences. That report, titled Vision and Voyages for Planetary Science in the Decade 2013-2022, and popularly referred to as the “decadal survey,” has provided high- level prioritization and guidance for NASA’s Planetary Science Division. Other considerations, such as budget realities, congressional language in authorization and appropriations bills, administration requirements, and cross-division and cross-directorate requirements (notably in retiring risk or providing needed information for the human program) are also necessary inputs to how NASA develops its planetary science program. In 2016 NASA asked the National Academies to undertake a study assessing NASA’s progress at meeting the objectives of the decadal survey. After the study was underway, Congress passed the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Transition Authorization Act of 2017 which called for NASA to engage the National Academies in a review of NASA’s Mars Exploration Program. NASA and the Academies agreed to incorporate that review into the midterm study. That study has produced this report, which serves as a midterm assessment and provides guidance on achieving the goals in the remaining years covered by the decadal survey as well as preparing for the next decadal survey, currently scheduled to begin in 2020. PREPUBLICATION COPY – SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION vii EMBARGOED FROM PUBLIC RELEASE UNTIL AUGUST 7 Acknowledgment of Reviewers This Consensus Study Report was reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen