July August 2015

NEW STUDY CALCULATES THE COSTS OF CONFLICT RRRREVIEW PAGE 10 ISRAELIS AND PALESTINIANS The Price of Peace

HEALTHY EATING, CURBSIDE: Food trucks go on a diet

Bridging the CIVILIAN- MILITARY DIVIDE

Truth, terrorism, AND TELEVISION AUDIO 1 INFOGRAPHIC BLOG

VIDEO

TESTIMONY

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4 5 IMAGE CREDITS, 1–5: ERHUI1979/ISTOCK; PEPIFOTO/ISTOCK; MBORTOLINO/ISTOCK; XUANHUONGHO/ISTOCK; RONFROMYORK/ISTOCK XUANHUONGHO/ISTOCK; MBORTOLINO/ISTOCK; PEPIFOTO/ISTOCK; ERHUI1979/ISTOCK; 1–5: CREDITS, IMAGE

1. National Security 2. Heart Health 3. Weaving Science 4. RAND Center for 5. Police– and the Partisan Making physical into Government Asia Pacific Policy Community Divide activity part of your Decisions This video highlights Relations Mike Rogers, former daily routine now can As the City of Santa how RAND is helping Criminologist congressman and pay off with a lifetime Monica’s research communities in Jessica Saunders former chair of the of health benefits. partner on The China, Indonesia, presented testimony House Intelligence Sticking with one Wellbeing Project, Vietnam, and on performance Committee, spoke small change at a RAND is helping to elsewhere in the metrics to improve at RAND on how time for 4–6 weeks identify measurable region solve critical police-community today’s political helps it become part social, physical, and problems pertaining relations before a environment affects of your daily routine. economic conditions to environment, joint committee national security that cultivate education, and of the California MORE AT policy. www.rand.org/t/IG118 communities that mental health. State Assembly thrive and flourish. and California MORE AT MORE AT State Public Safety www.rand.org/a150421 MORE AT www.rand.org/capp www.rand.org/b150429 Committees earlier this year.

MORE AT www.rand.org/t/CT423 RAND Picks Five July–August 2015

RRRREVIEW

Putting Health to the (Taste) Test Fighting obesity 6 and poor nutrition, one food truck at a time Elba Ramirez added a turkey burger, healthy tacos, and other nutritious meals to the cheeseburgers and chili dogs on the menu of her Los Angeles–area food truck. The healthier options have sold well enough that she’s considering adding a veggie burger and rice bowls. “I like to cook, I like food. I thought it would be good business,” she explained.

The Price of Bridging the Civilian- Peace Military Divide Watch what The Israeli- happens when academics Palestinian and military officers put their 10 conflict has 16 heads together. become a $173 billion quandary.

Oratory POV Producer Howard Giving 2 RAND 5 Gordon on 9/11, 24, 20 Philanthropy VP Jack and responsible among early- Riley on entertainment and mid-career justice and professionals national security at RANDom 21 A visionary for the The Q&A partially blind 4 Research that helps the developing world COVER PHOTO ELDADCARIN/FOTOLIA BY

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On May 16, 2015, K. Jack Riley delivered a will be the probation officers, the corrections commencement speech to graduates of the officers, and the forensics experts in whose Department of Criminology at the University hands the liberty of many will reside. You will of Pennsylvania School of Arts and Sciences. Below are excerpts from his speech. be the legal scholars, judges, journalists, and academics who will debate and tip the ever- The line between criminal justice and national shifting balance between security and liberty. security is getting blurrier all the time. Many of So, although I don’t have the answers to the the same issues that burden our communities many tough questions we face, I do have three also burden our foreign policy and our conduct principles that I think can help your generation of international affairs. Consider these issues of practitioners and scholars take us where we that have been in the news lately: profiling, need to go. sexual assault, and apprehension and deten- tion practices. Principle No. 1: Commit yourselves to objective, dispassionate, scientific We are all familiar with profiling in the context analysis. Advocacy is laudable and necessary, of police stops of motor vehicles or in the but it must be grounded empirically before it context of TSA and Homeland Security officials can succeed. trying to spot terrorists at airports. But profiling is used in many other efforts to counter violent Back in the mid-2000s, [two colleagues and extremism. Most notably, the president has the I] became interested in drug sentencing. power, on the basis of behavioral and physical California and Arizona voters had passed ballot profiling of suspected terrorists, to authorize initiatives that were in large part motivated by Jack Riley is vice president and director “signature strikes” with drones, meaning that the perceived oversentencing of low-level drug of the RAND National Security Research the government can attack and potentially kill offenders, especially marijuana offenders. In Division. NSRD conducts research and someone based not on trial and conviction but both states, the initiatives were expected to analysis for the Office of the Secretary on behavior patterns alone. divert these offenders, thought to be low-level, of Defense, the Joint Staff, the Unified Commands, the defense agencies, the The issue of sexual assaults affects our security from prison to treatment. Department of the Navy, the U.S. Intelligence institutions greatly. For example, in the absence We secured the cooperation of prosecutors in Community, the U.S. Department of State, of analysis, the issue of sexual assault in the mil- both states and traced the paths of individuals allied foreign governments, and foundations. From 1995 to 1999, Riley was with the U.S. itary had become so heated that some members from arrest, through prosecution and plea- Department of Justice, where he conducted of Congress were proposing to overturn several bargaining, to their ultimate sentence. We research and managed programs addressing decades, if not centuries, of precedent and move coded the quantities of drugs each person had a wide variety of issues, including domestic sexual assault offenses out of the military chain been caught with, the absence or presence of a terrorism, immigration reform, substance of command and into the civilian system. firearm, and other factors. We also traced what abuse trends, violent crime, offender monitoring, and law enforcement reforms. We see the issue of police apprehension explod- happened during the plea-bargaining process. ing nationwide because of the use of force As the graduates here know, plea-bargaining against civilians in Ferguson and Staten Island is the widely accepted practice under which and Baltimore and beyond. Likewise, in military prosecutors and offenders negotiate, typically detention over the past decade, we have seen for shorter prison sentences in exchange for deplorable acts of abuse committed by our sure convictions. own people at Abu Ghraib prison in Iraq and What we found surprised many people. Namely, troubling methods of prisoner interrogation at the black boxes of prosecution and plea- Guantánamo Bay detention camp in Cuba. bargaining had been obscuring the ground These events could cause us to doubt the fair- truth: The offenders who had been imprisoned ness of our systems of justice. In all of these on low-level drug charges had often pled down cases, at home and abroad, personal security their cases from far more serious offenses, fre- is at stake, liberties are at stake, and lives are quently involving substantial quantities of drugs. at stake. How do we simultaneously ensure Our analysis supported what the district at- security, preserve liberty, and protect lives? torneys were claiming in both states: that they This is where I am looking to you for help. You would no longer have the incentive to plea-

2 RAND.ORG | JULY–AUGUST 2015 bargain, because any serious offender given analysis focused on the issue of potential racial ing that they would get a fair hearing under a low-level charge would automatically avoid bias in routine traffic stops. We helped design U.S. justice. conviction and be diverted to treatment. As a the data collection form. To make sure our data I commend to you a book called Guantánamo result, the initiatives had the potential to clog collection methods were widely credible, we Diary. It is a memoir by a Mauritanian detainee the courts with cases going to trial on higher- involved the police, civil rights leaders, and named Mohamedou Ould Slahi. He remains im- level drug charges. In the end, more people community groups in designing the methods. prisoned in Guantánamo to this day after more could go to prison for longer sentences than One result of the data analysis was coun- than 12 years without a trial or hearing. Accord- before, defeating the purposes of the ballot terintuitive to everyone: We found no overt ing to sources other than his autobiography, he initiatives. And all of this could happen because pattern of racism in the initial decision to stop is among those who have been physically and the drug offenders turned out to be more seri- a motorist. However, the results did point to psychologically abused. Tortured. ous offenders than the voters had assumed. two trouble spots. First, there were individual He wrote, in longhand, a 400-page manuscript officers whose patterns of traffic stops stood that is uplifting, humorous, and redemptive of out as outliers compared with their peers who the human spirit. Regardless of his actual in- We should never confuse the court had conducted traffic stops in very closely nocence or guilt—and to be clear, I don’t know of public opinion with the court of matched circumstances. Second, community which is true—Slahi’s journey is a reminder of members and civil rights leaders had urged due process. the perilous slope upon which our criminal and us to design data collection methods that in- national security systems are perched. It is too cluded post-stop activities. It was a great lead. easy for us to dehumanize the opposition, or The moral of the story? Don’t be afraid to use They strongly suspected, and our analysis later the people whom we imprison, or the people, your careers to look inside black boxes, to find confirmed, that there were racial disparities in such as our police, whose jobs may bring them out things that are counterintuitive, and to certain post-stop activities, with African- into conflict with the public. The Senate report help us get to the ground truth as a first step American drivers more likely to be detained provokes a sense of regret about how we re- in the prolonged process of creating lasting longer and to be pat searched for weapons sponded at a pivotal moment in history. I hope change. So gather your facts and illuminate than were their white counterparts. what is dark, because real contributions are in 2029 we do not look back on the events of made when people challenge the conventional The moral of the story is to incorporate the key Ferguson or Staten Island or Baltimore with a wisdom. Scientific rigor matters enormously in stakeholders into your work, to involve them in similar sense of regret. We should not betray the field of criminal justice, where freedom and rigorous stakeholder reviews, and to adapt your our principles of justice in the quest for justice. lives are at stake. Remain committed to scien- course based on that input. We should never confuse the court of public tific principles not in the interest of science, but opinion with the court of due process. Principle No. 3: Don’t let heinous events in the interest of justice. and inflammatory rhetoric lead you Principle No. 2: Hold your research astray from the principles our country and analysis up to the highest level of and legal system were founded upon. criticism you can. Virtually nothing you do Tone matters, and the tenor of a lot of public in a professional capacity is likely to remain discourse today ... is far too often undignified anonymous or undiscovered in the modern era. and irresponsible. Irresponsible discourse can Whether your work ends up on the front page spill over into irresponsible behavior. Irrespon- of the New York Times or on the homepage sible behavior and coarse discourse erode the of Gawker or BuzzFeed, your analytic and schol- foundations of what I would call a civil society. arly efforts—and your motives—are increas- Our legal system is founded upon the core ingly likely to be dissected through crowdsourc- notions of a right to fair trial and of being ing and searing public exposure. Rigorous peer innocent until proven guilty. As our chronologi- review will help ensure that your work is ready cal and psychological distance grows from for the harsh glare of public scrutiny. the 9/11 terrorist attacks, which occurred in

DEPARTMENT OF CRIMINOLOGY UNIVERSITY AT OF PENNSYLVANIA Pick your harshest critics and have them test 2001 when many of you were quite young, your assumptions and analysis. And don’t the heat of that era’s rhetoric recedes, but the So, that’s my advice and my plea to you: Pledge rely on the temptation to have just your final consequences linger. yourself to objective, dispassionate, scientific document reviewed. Invite criticism and new This past December, more than 13 years after analysis as the best means of exposing the perspectives at interim stages of your work to the 9/11 attacks, the U.S. Senate Intelligence truth. Subject your work to scrutiny with the big help ensure that you don’t go off on the wrong Committee released a long-awaited report stage in mind, and with your stakeholders and track. Every aspect of your work should be sub- that makes clear that we have tortured people critics as prized participants. And uphold the jected to extensive criticism and feedback, from and that torturing them did nothing to help us core principles of our legal system, especially in beginning to end, before it is released. Because gather intelligence from them. This is true of times of fear and frenzy. There is no shortage of it will be after. some detainees who were neither captured on tough questions to which you can apply these [For example, we] worked on the issue of racial a battlefield, nor even caught trying to evade principles. profiling in Oakland, California. The Oakland police, but who turned themselves in believ-

JULY–AUGUST 2015 | RAND.ORG 3 The Q & A

Mentorship runs two ways. I am learning as Krishna Kumar is the director of much as, if RAND Labor and Population and holds not more the distinguished chair in international economic policy at RAND. He also than, my leads the Gene and Maxine Rosenfeld students Program on Asian Development, which are. provides financial support for Pardee RAND Graduate School students and faculty to explore critical issues related to Asian economic, ​social, ​and political development. Reaching the 80 Percent

Q You just returned from They supplement the funding might not have a contract. We ects from start to finish—and a four-day trip to Jordan. that I get for research. want to know, Are they stuck beyond. Their dissertations Many of your projects are there? Are they choosing to be sometimes spin off from the international. What drives there? What is the path forward research projects. What are three projects your interest in these re- for them? that the Rosenfeld Pro- It’s a well-kept secret that search opportunities? gram has made possible? mentorship runs two ways. I am Forty percent of the world learning as much as, if not more A Well, we just finished a three- What positive outcomes lives on less than $2 a day. than, they are. I wear many year randomized trial in China have you seen as a result Eighty percent lives on less hats, but teaching and advising assessing whether a train- of your research? than $10 a day. I have always students is probably the most ing program to help farmers We found, for rice farmers in believed that, for RAND to enjoyable part of my work. use fertilizers more optimally China, those who were not have global impact, it needs to worked or not. The project was using fertilizer are now do- address the well-being of these funded by 3IE, an international ing so; and those who were Looking ahead, what issue people. The tough part is that foundation, but it didn’t cover overusing fertilizer have cut do you think is most impor- the people who need our help all of the costs. The Rosenfeld down—bringing both “poorer” tant, to our world and its the most are the people who Program bridged the gaps. and “richer” farmers closer to people, to explore? can afford us the least. Finding optimal usage levels. funding to work in these areas And with the Indian School In the developing world, most is pretty difficult. of Business, we got funding For our low-income housing people are very young. In from the Rockefeller Founda- project, the private sector in Bangladesh, India, and Jordan At RAND, I lead the Rosenfeld tion to evaluate a low-income India is now entering the market there is a burgeoning young Program, which provides finan- housing project in India. The to provide affordable solutions population. The question is, cial support for Pardee RAND Rosenfeld Program enabled the for the working poor, so that Will we reap the demographic Graduate School students and groundwork we had to do for they can buy their own homes. dividend, or will it become a faculty to explore issues related this project. demographic disaster? These to development in Asia. This people will be in the labor force role, along with my distin- Finally, we are looking at infor- What role do students play for another 40 to 50 years. guished chair, gives me the flex- mal labor markets in Bangla- in your research? desh. More than 85 percent of Some of the best things that ibility to explore new markets Part of the Rosenfeld Program the labor market in Bangladesh RAND could do, and I hope to and countries where we can be is clearly aimed at working with is informal, meaning workers be a part of, would be in the of assistance. Pardee RAND fellows. These might not have benefits, or area of youth employment. fellows are part of the proj-

4 RAND.ORG | JULY–AUGUST 2015 POV Terrorism and We were shooting Television the third A Conversation with Howard Gordon episode of 24 Howard Gordon is the newest member of the RAND Center for Middle East Public Policy Advisory Board. As the award-winning writer and producer behind when 9 /11 television’s 24 and Homeland, Gordon understands the need to tell a compelling happened. story that will engage viewers over several seasons—and how polemicizing could undermine that objective. He recently spoke at a RAND Policy Circle event on how terrorism is depicted in entertainment and how entertainment influences life. Here are excerpts from that conversation.

On 9/11 less well, the cast of 24 became a a certain responsibility that lot darker and more complex. We comes with it. I started talking We were shooting the third epi- became a Rorschach test, in many to groups and realizing I had sode of 24 when 9/11 happened. ways, for the so-called war on ter- this responsibility. After that, everyone thought ror and its conduct. the show would be canceled … On TV’s influence that the audience would want On avoiding the incendiary We’re perpetually in a dance comedies. As it turned out, the When we started 24, the show with reality. We were visited by opposite happened. People had a Muslim family living in a general, a 24 fan, who said a were acutely interested in this Agoura or wherever they were lot of interrogators in the field in story, and so was I. It changed living. The husband and wife Iraq and Afghanistan are taking everything. The show would have The RAND Policy Circle is a were terrorists; the kid was, too, a page from Jack Bauer. Media is been vastly different had 9/11 not community of p hilanthropic but had a change of heart. On the powerful. It is one of our greatest happened. It became the prism individuals committed to 405 freeway, unbeknownst to us, exports. And artists do have an through which the audience supporting objective research there was a giant lit-up billboard: opportunity to humanize each viewed the show, and the one and analysis that lead to smarter “They could be next door.” We other and each other’s stories through which we wrote it. decisions and better outcomes. were contacted by the Muslim in a world that is really building Members enjoy exclusive Public Affairs Council and by walls and creating fear. On how the arc of the wars opportunities to interact with the Council on American-Islamic affected 24 RAND’s leading experts and Relations, [who said], “We are On Friends Jack Bauer was an action connect with RAND affiliates. afraid. This has implications for There’s a book called Who hero—not unlike Bruce Willis, our lives here.” It was something Speaks for Islam? What a Billion For more, visit www.rand.org/ Sly Stallone, and Clint Eastwood, that really made us think ... it Muslims Really Think. Gallup giving/policy_circle who do whatever it takes to get began a conversation. I began conducted polls and said, “Do what they need to get. No one engaging, particularly with you like Americans?” “Yes.” The really took us to task for anything MPAC, on this very subject. follow-up question was, “Have in those first four years. No one you met any Americans?” The blinked. Jack did some pretty It’s just a very thorny thing. It answer was no. “Well, how come extreme things, and that was made us open our eyes and be you like Americans?” And the an- one of the delights that we had aware, anyway, that this show Hear the full swer was [the TV show] Friends. as writers, and that the audience has an impact. As a creator, your conversation at It’s not propaganda, Friends, it’s www.rand.org/ had as viewers. first job is to tell an exciting, a reflection of who we are. I think a150506-tv emotional, engaging story, a After Guantanamo and Abu Ghraib there’s no greater export in some compelling story. But there’s and two wars that were going ways [than entertainment].

JULY–AUGUST 2015 | RAND.ORG 5 AT THE LONCHERAS

RAND partnered with a dozen Los Angeles–area food trucks to test whether healthier menu options would sell. The trucks, known as loncheras in the local Putting Health Spanglish, have been a part of blue-collar Los Angeles for generations and often serve low-income neighborhoods where obesity rates are high. to the (Taste) Test

PHOTOS BY SARAH REINGEWIRTZ/PRO PHOTOGRAPHY NETWORK

6 RAND.ORG | JULY–AUGUST 2015 AT THE LONCHERAS Putting Health to the (Taste) Test

A FOCUS ON THE RESEARCH OF Deborah Cohen, Ben Colaiaco, and Mary Martinez-Wenzl

By Doug Irving, Staff Writer

dwin Noguera had a few options as he con- sidered lunch on a recent afternoon on a busy street corner near downtown Los Angeles. “Deep fried pork belly,” promised one nearby food truck; another offered a greasy vision of Emeat and white cheese oozing from a thick block of bread. But Noguera stopped instead at a truck decorated on its side with a ribbon of ripe-red tomatoes and dark-green broccoli spears. “I have to watch what I’m eating,” he explained. “I’m trying to get my abs.” He ordered a plate of watermelon, salad, and grilled meat—and became an unwitting participant in an unusual RAND experiment. In recent months, RAND researchers have teamed up with a dozen Los Angeles lunch trucks to test healthier menu items—chicken breasts and grilled fish alongside the usual tacos and hamburgers. The results have been modest but promising. The healthy meals were never best-sellers, but they did well enough that a majority of the truck owners plan to keep them on the menu. That’s important, because the trucks tend to serve working-class Latino communities, where obesity rates are high and healthy food can be scarce, lead researcher Deborah Cohen said. “It’s important that the providers are offering these meals,” she said. “I think what we showed is that it’s completely feasible.” ELBA RAMIREZ WORKS THE BUSY LUNCH CROWD FROM INSIDE HER FOOD TRUCK. SHE ADDED FOUR HEALTHY MENU ITEMS, AND HAS HAD ENOUGH SUCCESS WITH THE LUNCH- TIME CROWD THAT SHE’S CONSIDERING ADDING TWO MORE.

Cohen has spent years arguing that restaurants, grocery shrimp tostadas; and one “Crazy Good Quesadilla.” stores, and other food outlets should take more responsi- Longtime truck owner Elba Ramirez added four healthy bility for the nation’s obesity epidemic, and more action menu items, including a chicken salad and a “famous” to stop it. More than one-third of U.S. adults are obese, turkey burger. She parks her truck in the shadow of a high- according to federal statistics, adding billions of dollars to rise bank building not far from downtown Los Angeles the nation’s health care costs each year. and had enough success with the lunchtime crowd that A lunch truck may seem like an unlikely testing ground she’s considering adding a veggie burger and a chicken- for healthy menu items, the four-wheel equivalent of a and-rice bowl. fast-food joint. But most are mom-and-pop operations “It’s been a good idea,” she said. “The people who try it where cooks make food by hand, using fresh ingredients, keep buying it. The people are happy, then I’m happy.” and often for underserved communities. Cohen called them a “good lab.” The six-month pilot program didn’t yield big sales numbers at most trucks, but it did yield some valuable insight into These aren’t the trendy food trucks that have started to sell the challenges, big and small, of changing food habits, the fusion tacos and reimagined grilled cheese to hip, young researchers said. Truck operators had trouble swapping out urbanites. These have been part of blue-collar Los Angeles their corn tortillas for whole wheat, for example, and their for generations, where they’re known as loncheras, after Latino customers especially didn’t care for the brown rice the Spanglish word lonche, for lunch. that replaced their traditional Mexican rice. Working with a $275,000 grant from the National Insti- Nearly half of the truck customers were regulars, surveys tutes of Health, RAND researchers enlisted nearly 20 found, and most knew what they wanted without even loncheras for a six-month trial they named “La Comida looking at the menu. In poorer neighborhoods and blue- Perfecta,” or “The Perfect Meal.” About a third of the truck collar work sites, that was usually a couple of $1 tacos, not a owners later dropped out, leaving 12 who worked with a $7 plate with fruit and salad. nutritionist, created their own healthy meals, and then put them on the menu. In all, the healthy menu items accounted for around 3.5 percent of all entrees sold from the lunch trucks Their creations had to include a cup of vegetables, half a during the six-month trial. The number was closer to cup of fruit, two ounces of whole grains, three ounces of 10 percent at the top-performing truck, which served a meat, a cup of milk or its equivalent in cheese—and they had to come in under 700 calories. Within those guide- wealthier and more diverse business district; and closer to lines, truck operators came up with plates of ceviche 2 percent for the lowest-performing trucks. ringed with avocados; meaty tacos stuffed with cabbage “It may not seem like a lot, but the number of meals sold is and peppers and served with salads; chicken sandwiches; on par with sales of new items at more popular franchise

8 RAND.ORG | JULY–AUGUST 2015 A double cheeseburger, large fries, and a 20-ounce soda combo should not be thought of as a “value meal.” It should be considered negligence.

Holding food providers accountable: Do no harm

Commentary by Deborah Cohen

The study’s recipe for a veryone needs food, water, and shel- healthy meal: ter, yet society offers protective stan- 1 CUP VEGETABLE Edards and regulations for just two of ½ CUP FRUIT these three essentials. 2 OUNCES WHOLE GRAIN The EPA regulates 90 potential contaminants 3 OUNCES MEAT in drinking water. And there are hundreds— perhaps thousands—of regulations that con- 1 CUP EQUIVALENT MILK trol every aspect of home construction, from (OR 1½ OUNCES CHEESE) the size of nails and screws to the height of <700 CALORIES steps in stairwells. But laws regarding food come up short. Science has proven again and again that obesity puts people at increased risk for heart restaurants,” Cohen said. She Angeles. He also knows which disease, cancer, and other chronic diseases. pointed to another statistic ones are diabetic, like he is. He But nowhere in law or regulation are restau- as evidence that the program said he joined the RAND pro- rants held accountable. was at least a limited success: gram to offer them a healthier Food providers should be expected to refrain Two-thirds of the truck owners variety of food—grilled fish, from doing harm to consumers by serving plan to keep the healthy meals ceviche, Yolanda’s Famous portions that are larger than they are able to on their menus. “If we can do it Chicken Salad. And, he added, burn. Requiring standardized portions with with loncheras, nobody has an he wasn’t shy about redirect- reasonable calorie counts could make it easier for people to recognize and avoid meals that excuse,” she said. ing customers who needed it contribute to obesity. Her research partner at RAND, toward those healthier options. A double cheeseburger, large fries, and a Ben Colaiaco, stopped by one “We didn’t make much, but we of the food trucks on a recent 20-ounce soda combo should not be thought didn’t lose anything,” he told of as a “value meal.” It should be considered afternoon to deliver a $250 Colaiaco. “I think it was a good negligence. check for participating in the experience, really. Variety for program. He found Benja- the customers is a positive.” min Hernandez and his wife, Yolanda, closing out another “Are you going to continue to long day on the truck they have offer these dishes?” Colaiaco driven for 29 years. asked. Excerpted from The RAND Blog. Read the full commentary here: Hernandez knows many of his Hernandez seemed surprised www.rand.org/b150408food customers by name at the work at the question. “Yes,” he said.

BURGER AND FRIES: YVDAVYD/ISTOCK sites he frequents east of Los “Yes, of course.”

JULY–AUGUST 2015 | RAND.ORG 9 “WE HOPED RAND COULD PROVIDE, WITH ITS ANALYTICAL METHODS, SOME KIND OF NEW PERSPECTIVE.” C. Ross Anthony, a senior economist at RAND and coleader of The Costs-of-Conflict A FOCUS ON THE RESEARCH OF Study Team The Costs-of-Conflict Study Team The Price A groundbreaking analysis reveals what’s at stake for both Israelis and Palestinians of Peace By Doug Irving, Staff Writer

he cost of ten more years of stalemate in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict: $173 billion. Buildings destroyed and businesses ru- ined. Lost trade. Lost jobs. Lost lives. The economic deadweight of another decade Tof fear and uncertainty. One hundred and seventy-three billion dollars, forfeited. It took a team of RAND economists and policy experts more than two years to come up with and verify that number, the first time research- ers have managed to pin such a complete price tag on the conflict. Their aim was simple, even if their math was not: to show both sides how much they stand to lose from the enduring con- flict, and how much they could gain in peace.

GRAPHIC ADAPTED FROM: DUNCAN1890/ISTOCK (HAND), AND AYZEK/ISTOCK (FLAGS)

10 RAND.ORG | JULY–AUGUST 2015 JULY–AUGUST 2015 | RAND.ORG 11 THE TAKEAWAY What each side has to gain or lose

Israelis Palestinians PEACE +$123 billion +$50 billion (Two-state solution) to economy to economy

COORDINATED Negligible gain Eventual +$1.5 billion UNILATERAL annually following tough early WITHDRAWAL years. Comes mostly from opportunities in areas vacated by settlers.

UNCOORDINATED -$22 billion Negligible UNILATERAL WITHDRAWAL

NONVIOLENT -$80 billion to Israeli -$12 billion from Israeli RESISTANCE economy, in large part because restriction to movement of perceived instability in the region, as well as Palestinian- Waiting for change in the Palestinian territories led boycotts (Above) Two young men in Dheisheh refugee camp in the VIOLENT -$250 billion -$46 billion West Bank; Palestinian women UPRISING in lost opportunities and direct to the economy passing an Israeli checkpoint costs, including: in Al-Shuhada Street in Hebron in the West Bank. (Below) A -$800 million in Palestinian child sits in broken 2024 for health, education, and concrete near the Mediterranean Sea in the Gaza Strip. other basic services to West Bank

Note: Estimates over a 10-year period, unless otherwise noted; all costs are denoted in constant 2014 U.S. dollars BACKGROUND: MAJDI FATHI/NURPHOTO/AP IMAGES; INSETS: JUAN TEIXEIRA/NURPHOTO/AP IMAGES JUAN INSETS: IMAGES; MAJDI FATHI/NURPHOTO/AP BACKGROUND: “We hoped RAND could provide, with its analytical meth- $1,000 after ten years—and there, that’s the same as a ods, some kind of new perspective,” said C. Ross Anthony, 36 percent pay hike. a senior economist at RAND who helped lead the Costs- Those percentages underscore an economic fact of the of-Conflict Study Team that authored the report. “No one conflict: Palestinians have much more incentive to move had ever done that,” added Charles P. Ries, vice president toward peace. Israelis can better afford the status quo, at RAND and co-leader on the project. especially given what they see as the tradeoff, entrust- The team’s findings shed new light not only on the pos- ing more cross-border security to a fledgling Palestinian Israelis Palestinians sibilities of the future, but also on the knotted realities of state in a region garrisoned by terrorist groups like ISIS PEACE +$123 billion +$50 billion the present. and Hezbollah. (Two-state solution) to economy to economy As a recent headline in the Jerusalem Post put COORDINATED Negligible gain Eventual +$1.5 billion The Israeli economy gains it: “Will a peace deal UNILATERAL annually following tough early bring a huge economic WITHDRAWAL years. Comes mostly from the most from peace with a opportunities in areas vacated dividend, (or) will the by settlers. Palestinian state. only boom be that of For the Palestinians, the benefits of a new and inde- rockets bringing down UNCOORDINATED -$22 billion Negligible the economy?” UNILATERAL pendent Palestine, alongside but apart from Israel, are WITHDRAWAL obvious: self-governance, freedom of movement, inter- For the average Israeli, national trade, and an economic boom. But the RAND “the bottom line is, the NONVIOLENT -$80 billion to Israeli -$12 billion from Israeli analysis found that, strictly in terms of dollars and cents, economic benefits of RESISTANCE economy, in large part because restriction to movement Israel stands to gain the most. peace may not be fully appreciated or sufficient to over- of perceived instability in the come the perceived costs,” Anthony said. region, as well as Palestinian- Ten years of peace with a Palestinian state would be led boycotts worth $123 billion to the Israeli economy. Trade would But that overlooks some very real economic dividends surge in both areas as new markets opened to Israel that peace would pay even at the neighborhood level, VIOLENT -$250 billion -$46 billion across the Arab world; foreign investors would put their the RAND analysis concluded. All those billions of dol- UPRISING in lost opportunities and direct to the economy money into Israeli and Palestinian companies with- lars coursing through the economy could fund tens of costs, including: out fear of losing it to violence. Israel also would save thousands of new homes and schools, greatly easing the persistent lack of housing that Israelis and Palestinians -$800 million in hundreds of millions of dollars by withdrawing from its 2024 for health, education, and controversial West Bank settlements, a certain condition list as a top quality-of-life concern. other basic services to West Bank of any peace deal. The Palestinians, meanwhile, would need heavy interna- A Palestinian uprising carries tional private and public support to start growth in their new state. But the changes in their economy would be heavy costs for both sides. fundamental: $5 billion a year in new trade; $730 million A Palestinian uprising, a return to the violence of the in new agriculture made possible by unrestricted access past, spreading across Gaza and the West Bank, could to water. In all, ten years of peace would add $50 billion drain the Israeli economy of $250 billion over ten years. to the Palestinian economy, a transformative figure for But it also would shatter Palestinian society. an area with a struggling economy to start with. Israel’s expected response to such an uprising—such as A successful two-state solution “would be profoundly squeezing off the tax revenues it collects for the Palestin- positive, for both sides,” Ries said. “There are not so ians and impeding their trade—would likely bring down many macroeconomic policies that countries can sup- the limited Palestinian self-government, the Palestinian port that have that kind of impact.” Authority. Israel’s military would level buildings and destroy infrastructure; and its almost certain move to cut off work permits would cut off the economic lifeblood At the individual level, average of the Palestinians. Palestinians stand to gain more Total cost to the Palestinian economy: $46 billion over ten years. That translates into more than a 45 percent cut than average Israelis. to the already-meager income of an average Palestinian All those billions of dollars in new trade and investment in 2024. would add up to a per capita boost for the average Israeli Israel would lose five times as much—up to $45 billion of around $2,200—roughly equivalent to a 5 percent some years, and $250 billion over a decade—as foreign raise—after ten years. An average Palestinian in the West investment, trade, and tourists flee the conflict and Bank or Gaza Strip, meanwhile, would see an additional its own security costs soar. Israel also would have to ODED BALILTY/AP IMAGES BALILTY/AP ODED

JULY–AUGUST 2015 | RAND.ORG 13 shoulder much of the costs of health, education, and social welfare in Gaza and the West Bank after the collapse of the Palestinian RESEARCH IN THE PUBLIC INTEREST Authority, a direct annual expense approaching $1 billion. RAND’s analysis represents the first large-scale The RAND report sums up the outcome for both sides with two research effort to measure both the direct words: “Profoundly negative.” costs of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the opportunity costs, such as trade that never happens or businesses that never open. Neither economy gains much from a The researchers developed their calculations over more than two years of meetings with political unilateral Israeli withdrawal. leaders, policy experts, academics, and activists That has emerged as a possible solution to the continued deadlock from both sides and from the international in the peace talks. What if Israel just pulls back from some of the community. They also honed their initial findings West Bank, without waiting for the creation of a Palestinian state? during a workshop in Greece with more than The answer, according to RAND’s analysis: The economics don’t two-dozen Israeli, Palestinian, and European add up. leaders—an early “stress test” to ensure their analysis was sound, coauthor Charles P. Ries said. Israel could save a little by evacuating its West Bank settlements. But decoupling from the Palestinians would also cost Israel a The research was funded in large part by steady supply of cheap labor, nullifying any economic gains. donations from longtime RAND supporters David and Carol Richards. Their previous gifts to RAND Even that assumes an orderly and slow withdrawal, with a carefully enabled a project that envisioned how a future coordinated handover of territory to the Palestinians, and with Palestinian state could be structured. international support and approval. Anything less would drive up At its simplest, the effort to put a cost to the Israel’s security costs, leave it with the large expense of moving conflict started with a line graph of expected settlers, and likely damage its international image and trade. economic growth in Israel and the West Bank The Palestinians would eventually see an additional $1.5 billion and Gaza over ten years if nothing changes. The annually in expanded trade and economic opportunities if they researchers then plotted the economic outcomes went along with a coordinated Israeli withdrawal, as new oppor- of alternative futures against the benchmark of tunities open up in lands vacated by settlers. But the early years that status quo; the differences illustrated the would be tough, as they race to take over responsibility for security credits and debits of change to each side. from the departing Israelis. The researchers considered five possible futures, with no judgments about the relative likelihood of one over another: A peaceful two-state Palestinians can make Israelis pay solution; a coordinated Israeli withdrawal from the West Bank; an uncoordinated Israeli through nonviolent resistance, but withdrawal; nonviolent Palestinian resistance; at a cost. and a violent Palestinian uprising. Palestinian leaders have started to press the international com- They did not include another option that has munity for formal recognition, as well as criminal investigations been floated: a one-state solution that fully incorporates the West Bank, Gaza, and the and boycotts against Israel. Earlier this year, Israel responded by Palestinians into Israel. That’s because no formal freezing $127 million in tax revenue it collects for the Palestinians, and complete proposal for such a single state has putting the Palestinian Authority in an economic chokehold. been put forward, making it less viable within In an extended standoff, Palestinian-led boycotts could pare $80 the study’s ten-year timeframe. billion from the Israeli economy over ten years, the RAND analysis The research described in The Costs of the Israeli- concluded. In response, Israel might further freeze tax revenue, Palestinian Conflict was conducted within the restrict the movement of Palestinians, and cut off work permits— RAND Center for Middle East Public Policy. costing the Palestinians $12 billion over ten years, a proportionally harsh blow given the smaller size of their economy. That cycle of continued stalemate, resistance, action, and reaction appears to be the direction the conflict has taken in recent months. The decisions needed to break through the impasse will only con- tinue to get more difficult and expensive as the conflict drags on. But The Costs of the Israeli- with the economic benefits of peace so large, and the potential costs Palestinian Conflict of violence so deep, RAND researchers held out reason for hope. is available for free download at “Even gridlocked highways,” they noted, “have exit ramps.” www.rand.org/t/RR740

14 RAND.ORG | JULY–AUGUST 2015 JERUSALEM: MICHAL FATTAL; RAMALLAH: SHOROOQ SHALABI

Today, more than 90 percent of Israelis and Palestinians were born after 1948 and have known nothing other than some version of the impasse. share their findings. their share to London and Brussels in audiences convened also (top).researchers The Club Press Jerusalem the at and bottom) and (middle Ramallah in briefings press back-to-back at June in study RAND new the from findings presented Team Study Costs-of-Conflict the from Researchers RAND Experts Share Experts RAND Their Ramallah, and Europe Ramallah, and Findings in Jerusalem, Jerusalem, in Findings Taking It to “ the Streets the have costs.” real would generation another for impasse of the that prolongation and solution two-state astable with off better be analysis could sides that both shows Our impasse. of version the some than haveand nothing other known 1948 after Palestiniansand born were Today, of Israelis percent 90 than more dynamic. political complex in a factor one but are Economics makes likely most it the outcome. this hardly solution, two-state the for case make findings our While strong a originally appeared on newsweek.com newsweek.com on appeared originally excerpted from a commentary that that acommentary from excerpted Charles P. and Charles Ries C. Ross Anthony, Anthony, Ross C. on June 9, 2015 9, June on Voices

BY Paula Thornhill Bridging the Civilian--Military

16 RAND.ORG | JULY–AUGUST 2015 A funny thing happened when these military officers and academics got together. The officers were intimidated by the fancy degrees and four-star friends. The scholars were intimidated by the uniforms, medals, and deployments. Here’s how they learned Bridging the to trust each other. Civilian--Military Divide

ILLUSTRATIONS BY TANYA MAIBORODA

JULY–AUGUST 2015 | RAND.ORG 17 of defense, it it defense, of career. If this career. this If relationships relationships This exercise exercise This they are full full they are importance importance professors, professors, secretaries secretaries is left until until left is officers, or or officers, of building earlier in a in earlier is too late. too is 18 RAND.ORG 18 suggests, assistant first, the the first, personal personal general JULY–AUGUST 2015 |JULY–AUGUST had all the answers. all had group neither that ensured expertise, tary mili- and civilian both require to designed scenario, The levels. or postdoctoral sor profes- assistant at the experts policy and academic emerging and captains) Navy and colonels, colonels, (lieutenant officers military of field-grade group accomplished an together It brought solution. military a require might that problem geopolitical contemporary a presented exercise The leaders together. future brought that exercise a tabletop possibility: one modest explored recently RAND Foundation, Stanton the from support With abit more abundant? time and at stake is less their careers, when in earlier trust and respect build to away there is divided, themselves find academics officers and senior If civilian academics. and officers military other: each offer to much have should that communities influential of two opacity mutual the is problem of the facet Another control. civilian beyond are they though as act who officers military of senior stories myriad the and force, all-volunteer an sustaining of costs high the uniform, in serve who of Americans number dwindling the W often mention mention often they divide, civilian-military the about talk commentators hen of the best way to think about critical con- critical about think to way best of the understanding of their limitations the ized real- participants military The invaluable. equally proved insights civilian Similarly, military options. various of pursuing tions limita- logistics and personnel the about learned civilians Moreover, the academics. the impressed greatly This options. of the one of implementing details the into dive and them; address to options at different look pieces; manageable into problem big a disaggregate to ability the brought tary mili- The other. each needed they realized quickly players military and academic the problem, ageopolitical address to asked and assembled was group the When by reputation. only knew bers mem- military the whom world security national of the icons with closely worked had some Indeed, circles. policy defense national the in connections notable had and fellowships, impressive awarded been sessed prestigious advanced degrees, had pos- who academics, the by unsettled less no were counterparts military their But their uniforms. in intimidating, even aloof, appear they and ribbons; colored and als med- wear they experiences; life markable re- have might members military them, To uniform. in those by at times unsettled being to confessed academics Civilian be quieted. to need doubts personal bridged, be can divide civilian-military the Before human: very something revealed it days, two over unfolded scenario the As

PHOTOS BY PAULA THORNHILL cepts such as deterrence, escalation, and crisis This exercise suggests, first, the importance management, and how best to use military of building personal relationships earlier in a resources to prevent a conflict. career. If this is left until they are full profes- After the exercise, while the players’ actions sors, general officers, or assistant secretaries of were being evaluated, something simple yet defense, it is too late; they will have less time to powerful happened. Civilian participants asked learn and will tend to be more certain in their military players about their uniforms and as- views. Second, it highlighted the importance of sociated accouterments. Among other things, a safe learning environment where ignorance this facilitated questions about past deploy- can be disclosed, questions asked, and mistakes ments, future ship assignments, and overseas made. This can be done intensely through an tours in peace and war. In return, the military immersion process over the course of a few participants asked about their cutting-edge, days, but it requires personal, professional, and interdisciplinary research. This simple gesture intellectual commitment. And third, it revealed started a conversation based on mutual respect. the importance of informal conversations based It seemed a small, unplanned yet instrumental on mutual respect during the inevitable down step in bridging the civilian-military divide. times of a tabletop exercise. Trust and reliance seemed to follow in short order. The limitations to this approach are important to note. It is built around small groups; it is labor intensive; and it requires civilian and mil- itary participants to devote some of their valu- able professional time to it. But even with these limitations, the effort is worthwhile. National defense is a team endeavor; it requires the trust, devotion, and expertise of military and civilian leaders at many levels to make it work.

Paula Thornhill is a senior political scientist at the RAND In fact, this tabletop exercise suggested that the Corporation and serves as a RAND representative to the best way to bridge the civilian-military divide, Stanton Foundation. She is a retired U.S. Air Force brigadier especially at the senior levels of government, general, having last served as commandant of the Air Force is not via large conferences or formal papers. Institute of Technology. Instead, it can be done by building trust, one This commentary originally appeared on defenseone.com person at a time, over time. on April 3, 2015.

JULY–AUGUST 2015 | RAND.ORG 19 Giving

Millennials, the largest generation in the United States, also comprise the most diverse, educated, and globally connected generation to date.

Edahn Small is one such RANDNext member. An “early adopter” of the program, Edahn’s interest in RAND and RANDNext stems from a desire to keep learning—to connect with and grow from the other professionals and experts whom RANDNext attracts. As a professional, Edahn’s path has been varied. He has a J.D., as well as an M.S. in counseling psychology. Cur- rently, Edahn works as the creative director at the Hypothesis Group, a creative and consumer insights agency. Edahn’s focus and expertise is data visualization—creating imag- ery that teaches and informs.

When Edahn was asked why he EDAHN SMALL joined RANDNext, he responded, “Our formal education stops at col- lege or graduate school, and we have s Millennials make their mark very few opportunities to learn for the on the workforce, philan- A sake of learning. RAND makes learn- thropic giving, and public policy, ing post–graduate school available RAND has launched a new program, through its RANDNext program. I RANDNext, to engage early- to mid- support RAND because I believe this career professionals on the issues that organization is doing great work. I are shaping our world. As a global want both to be a part of that, and organization with 1,800 staff members to help RAND advance its mission: hailing from 46 countries, RAND is to improve policy and decisionmak- uniquely positioned to do this. Since ing through research and analysis.” its inception, RANDNext has invited members to engage on such topics As RANDNext grows, it will engage as space policy, farmworkers and the and involve more professionals like food supply chain, and artificial intel- Edahn, individuals whose curiosity ligence and technology. and energy drive them to seek more— to learn more, to engage more, and Still less than a year old, the pro- to contribute to the conversation on gram has attracted a range of com- policy and policymaking. mitted young professionals, each with a distinct career path and To learn more about RANDNext, or to join, visit interest in RAND. www.rand.org/randnext. PHOTO OF EDAHN SMALL: HYPOTHESIS GROUP

20 RAND.ORG | JULY–AUGUST 2015 at RANDom

Sam Genensky knew he had to he researcher’s nose was do something. pressed against the door to the women’s restroom. Partially blind, he couldn’t read the sign. “Why are you smelling the restroom doors?” a RAND Tsecurity guard asked. That’s when Sam Genensky knew he had to do something. So the mathematician, who joined RAND in the 1950s, invented the now common triangle and circle signs (raised so they can be discerned by touch) that became the standard for women’s and men’s restrooms in California and across many other parts of the country —just one of Genensky’s visions for how to help the partially sighted. Injured as a newborn by incorrectly administered eyedrops, Genensky was blind in one eye and had 20/1,000 vision in the other. He spent one year in a high school for the blind, but he resisted learning to live as a blind person instead of making the most of the sight he had. When he returned to public school, Genensky realized he could use binoculars to see the chalkboard. Attaching a second lens created bifocals that let him see both the board and his textbooks—a method he then used at Harvard and Brown. At RAND, A Genensky expanded on the binoculars technique in a 1973 report, and similar vision aids are still sold today. However, it was an invention called RANDSIGHT, developed with his researcher friends, that brought Genensky a flood of Visionary recognition—and a new career. A sort of closed-circuit television system that magnified and sharpened text, “Sam Genensky’s Marvelous Seeing Machine” was featured in Reader’s Digest in 1971. Soon he was flooded with requests from people hoping to replicate it, and for the RANDSIGHT became the model for the video magnifiers that still help sight- impaired people be more self-sufficient. “I couldn’t turn my back on them,” he said later, and in 1978 Genensky founded the Center for the Partially Sighted. Partially Though he went completely blind before his death in 2009, Genensky had a corneal transplant in 1993 that improved the vision in his partially sighted eye for a decade—marking the first time he realized he was married to a redhead instead of a Blind brunette. NON-PROFIT ORG. U.S. POSTAGE PAID THE RAND C O R P O R A T I O N CORPORATION

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