Let's Think Flexibly! -- In Order to Lead Changes in Society / Technology -- ITO Masahide (Ph. D.), Director-General, NILIM 1. Introduction virtual site. I appreciate those who read the Annual Report of Of course, establishment / verification of the system NILIM for their understanding of and cooperation itself and issues concerning the hardware and systems with NILIM. I hope this report would be of help. should be addressed in parallel. However, there is no In recent years, technologies represented by IoT and doubt that knowledge other than IoT is indispensable. data science have rapidly progressed and, parallel to Therefore, on the subject of how to use IoT as a tool, a that, socio-economic activities have become more broad view based on action and flexible thinking is complicated and high-tech. Under such circumstances, required particularly for engineers and researchers I would like to talk about "flexible thinking" in my who will be using it. opening message. Flexible thinking is a topic that consistently draws my interest as an "attitude" (2) What impact does climate change have on required for engineers and researchers in the public structures? capital/housing field. It is widely recognized that climate change will cause frequent natural disasters and devastating damage. So, 2. How do you think? won’t other things be affected? The impact of intense What is "Flexible thinking"? Let me give you some heat on the labor environment of a site is well examples. How do you think about the following recognized. What is the impact on structures? Such themes? indication has never been heard although I may not have learned. However, isn't there any relationship? (1) What is a digital twin in regards to For example, let us consider the impact on the maintenance? durability of structures in a cold, snowy area. Isn't it The concept of a "digital twin" is at the core of possible that temperature could fluctuated around zero "Society 5.0" and maintenance of social capital is degrees and consequently increase in the risk of often discussed as a field for which introduction is freezing and thawing even in areas where the expected. We see the catchphrase of its ideal, such as temperature is normally below zero all day long in the "automatic perception of abnormality based on data, winter, such as the mountainous areas of Hokkaido or efficiency increase and advancement of maintenance Honshu? by creating a virtual site." However, we rarely see New findings would be obtained by relating the discussions about the specific content of the knowledge that is common individually, such as technology. global warming and freezing and thawing effect. What does it actually mean to detect abnormalities based on data? Roughly speaking, it might mean to (3) What effect does i-Construction bring? "install sensors of the necessary performance in What is the expected effect of i-Construction appropriate locations, consistently collect, transmit, (“i-Con")? Most people would say improvements in record and accumulate abnormality data in the cloud, quality / work efficiency and solutions to labor and detect abnormalities using AI." However, shortages. However, this is how a builder sees things, requirements should be clarified, such as sensor and looks at construction sites in the narrowest sense. location and sensitivity. If AI analysis is conducted, For the former, it is also important to discuss the effect the teaching data of abnormal behaviors will also be of efficiency-enhanced construction management on necessary. If asset management is developed, it will be the owner and the kind of business process / operation necessary to set the deterioration curve of structures system desirable to the owner. and target values of management. That is, knowledge Regarding the latter, changes in work style are being as a structure is indispensable. reported by pioneering enterprises that adopted i-Con It would also be necessary to consider management of technology, even in part, such as very recently hired the IoT system itself, operating procedures for initial young employees operating heavy machinery or actions to take when an abnormality is detected, and women employee who had previously been doing the system, personnel, and skills appropriate for the paperwork taking charge of data creation. These examples suggest changes in the way young people 4. Conclusion view the construction industry as working In this paper, I have stated my personal opinion and opportunities are being created for women and some criticism. However, what is stated here is also inexperienced persons. Moreover, if it were possible expected of the concerned persons and readers, to acquire skills in 3D data creation or IT heavy including the people in my organization. machinery operation at an industrial high school or I believe that, if more people in our organization technical college, young people would be more practice "flexible thinking" based on proper expertise, interested and could be put to work immediately. knowledge, and experience, we can steer the Development of a construction simulator for engineering development towards what society truly educational purposes would not be difficult, given the needs and prove ourselves useful even in rapidly technologies available today. It would bring changes changing times, without being swayed by new to job training by systematizing the skills that should technologies or requests. I also see pride and humility be acquired for i-Con age and creating educational integral to flexible thought. programs for acquiring them. Various development ideas can be hatched by watching manifested events and being imaginative. 3. "Flexible thinking" is a sense of crisis turned inside-out. The foregoing examples are some of the ideas I have been presenting in my daily work. Although the themes of discussion are different, what commonly underlies them all is “flexible thinking." In fact, this is a sense of crisis turned inside-out. As I stated at the beginning, the world around us is becoming increasingly complicated and moving at an accelerating pace, all the while placing greater emphasis on performance and social implementation. Accordingly, there are not a few cases where we see the tendency of pursuing easy and fragmented results that are apparently easy to understand. This goes for science and technology in general, as well: there is an observable tendency towards superficial activities that sound good in theory. Of course, as the world of competition, skills for quick and skillful presentation will be necessary. On the other hand, there is actually a steady tendency in some data business, etc. that a highly sufficient system is created quietly to a certain extent and disseminated / implemented in society before people know it. Under such circumstances, what value do engineers and researchers have in the housing and social capital fields? I think that these fields are characterized by physical existence including buildings, structures, rivers, and seas, real development of socioeconomic activity and citizens' lives on them, and the need of policy development and system construction for implementation. The engineers and researchers who have been involved in these fields should have knowledge of all of this. Based on accurate technical capabilities, perceive the essence of things and see the future. Overviewing with a consistently high perspective, such as whole engineering system, social system including policies and systems, regions and land, and relationship with social life. Such idea and action are possible with flexible thinking. These might be the existence value. River Engineering for Adaptation to Climate Change River Department We are conducting a study to provide flood risk information, which is useful for estimation future rainfall and flood characteristics as well as flood prevention activities and evacuation guidance, in order to advance disaster prevention by river development etc. and disaster mitigation after flood occurrence, in consideration of the serious flood damage that frequently occurs recently and change in heavy rain due to climate change. A social background and issues • In recent years, flood disasters with human damage frequently occur due to the frequent occurrence of heavy rain, such as Typhoon No. 19 in FY2019. • Further, it is also necessary to consider disaster prevention / mitigation for rainstorms etc. including the impact of climate change. • Accordingly, it is important to advance river development based on future rainfall and flood characteristics and to provide flood risk information so that local governments and residents may take actions properly to prepare for flood. Study contents Future changes in the target rainfall of river plan It is pointed out that the scale of heavy rain causing river flooding frequently in recent years has been becoming large due to the impact of climate change. To address such changes in large-scale flood, it is required to reflect quantitatively future changes due to climate change in rainfall as external force, which is the target of river development and to implement river development adapted to climate change systematically and promptly. Then, Water Cycle Division of the River Department is analyzing future changes in the target precipitation of river planning using the climate forecast data based on the latest Legend climate model. The right Figure shows an example for calculation of the ratio of past and future precipitation ("precipitation change magnification") in a planned scale for each of the 15 areas divided across the country. Considering such future changes in rainfall as external force, river planning adapted to climate change is expected to proceed across the 1/100 probability rainfall change magnification at the temperature rise of 4C country. (Rain area; 1,600 km2, Duration of rainfall: 24 hours) Support the creation of flood risk information based on the limited available data on small- and medium- sized rivers For flood control measures under climate change, promotion of the damage prevention / mitigation measure in case of flood, as development of flood control facilities, is much more important.