Terrorism Versus Insurgency: a Conceptual Analysis
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Combating Islamic Extremist Terrorism 1
CGT 1/22/07 11:30 AM Page 1 Combating Islamic Extremist Terrorism 1 OVERALL GRADE D+ Al-Qaeda headquarters C+ Al-Qaeda affiliated groups C– Al-Qaeda seeded groups D+ Al-Qaeda inspired groups D Sympathizers D– 1 CGT 1/22/07 11:30 AM Page 2 2 COMBATING ISLAMIC EXTREMIST TERRORISM ive years after the September 11 attacks, is the United States win- ning or losing the global “war on terror”? Depending on the prism through which one views the conflict or the metrics used Fto gauge success, the answers to the question are starkly different. The fact that the American homeland has not suffered another attack since 9/11 certainly amounts to a major achievement. U.S. military and security forces have dealt al-Qaeda a severe blow, cap- turing or killing roughly three-quarters of its pre-9/11 leadership and denying the terrorist group uncontested sanctuary in Afghanistan. The United States and its allies have also thwarted numerous terror- ist plots around the world—most recently a plan by British Muslims to simultaneously blow up as many as ten jetliners bound for major American cities. Now adjust the prism. To date, al-Qaeda’s top leaders have sur- vived the superpower’s most punishing blows, adding to the near- mythical status they enjoy among Islamic extremists. The terrorism they inspire has continued apace in a deadly cadence of attacks, from Bali and Istanbul to Madrid, London, and Mumbai. Even discount- ing the violence in Iraq and Afghanistan, the tempo of terrorist attacks—the coin of the realm in the jihadi enterprise—is actually greater today than before 9/11. -
Counter-Insurgency, Human Rights, and the Law of Armed Conflict Federico Sperotto
Human Rights Brief Volume 17 | Issue 1 Article 3 2009 Counter-Insurgency, Human Rights, and the Law of Armed Conflict Federico Sperotto Follow this and additional works at: http://digitalcommons.wcl.american.edu/hrbrief Part of the Human Rights Law Commons, and the International Law Commons Recommended Citation Sperotto, Federico. "Counter-Insurgency, Human Rights, and the Law of Armed Conflict." Human Rights Brief 17, no. 1 (2009): 19-23. This Article is brought to you for free and open access by the Washington College of Law Journals & Law Reviews at Digital Commons @ American University Washington College of Law. It has been accepted for inclusion in Human Rights Brief by an authorized administrator of Digital Commons @ American University Washington College of Law. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Sperotto: Counter-Insurgency, Human Rights, and the Law of Armed Conflict Counter-Insurgency, Human Rights, and the Law of Armed Conflict by Federico Sperotto* introduCtion ounter-insurgency is the dominant aspect in the United States-led Operation Enduring Freedom (OEF) in CAfghanistan, and, since the NATO-led International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) has assumed growing respon- sibility throughout insurgents’ sanctuaries, also a mission for Europeans. According to the U.S. military, insurgency represents an intermediate step in the spectrum of conflict, which ranges from stable peace to general war.1 The frame in which military opera- tions are conducted is known as irregular warfare, a violent struggle among state and non-state actors for legitimacy and influence over a population.2 This form of conflict is charac- terized by three principle activities: insurgency, counter-insur- gency, and unconventional warfare, referring to the avoidance of Association of the Courtesy of the Revolutionary Afghanistan. -
Attribution and Response to Cybercrime/Terrorism/Warfare Susan W
Journal of Criminal Law and Criminology Volume 97 Article 2 Issue 2 Winter Winter 2007 At Light Speed: Attribution and Response to Cybercrime/Terrorism/Warfare Susan W. Brenner Follow this and additional works at: https://scholarlycommons.law.northwestern.edu/jclc Part of the Criminal Law Commons, Criminology Commons, and the Criminology and Criminal Justice Commons Recommended Citation Susan W. Brenner, At Light Speed: Attribution and Response to Cybercrime/Terrorism/Warfare, 97 J. Crim. L. & Criminology 379 (2006-2007) This Symposium is brought to you for free and open access by Northwestern University School of Law Scholarly Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in Journal of Criminal Law and Criminology by an authorized editor of Northwestern University School of Law Scholarly Commons. 0091-4169/07/9702-0379 THE JOURNALOF CRIMINAL LAW & CRIMINOLOGY Vol. 97. No. 2 Copyright 0 2007 by NorthwesternUniversity. Schoolof Low Printedin U.S.A. "AT LIGHT SPEED": ATTRIBUTION AND RESPONSE TO CYBERCRIME/TERRORISM/WARFARE SUSAN W. BRENNER* This Article explains why and how computer technology complicates the related processes of identifying internal (crime and terrorism) and external (war) threats to social order of respondingto those threats. First, it divides the process-attribution-intotwo categories: what-attribution (what kind of attack is this?) and who-attribution (who is responsiblefor this attack?). Then, it analyzes, in detail, how and why our adversaries' use of computer technology blurs the distinctions between what is now cybercrime, cyberterrorism, and cyberwarfare. The Article goes on to analyze how and why computer technology and the blurring of these distinctions erode our ability to mount an effective response to threats of either type. -
Meserole Brookings CV 2021
CHRISTOPHER O. MESEROLE 1775 Massachusetts Ave NW, Washington DC 20036 (202) 797-6180 | [email protected] POSITIONS Director of Research and Policy, Brookings AI & Emerging Tech Initiative (2020-) Deputy Director, Brookings AI & Emerging Tech Initiative (2019-2020) Fellow, Foreign Policy, Brookings Institution (2017-) Post-Doctoral Fellow in Foreign Policy, Brookings Institution (2016-2017) Pre-Doctoral Fellow in Foreign Policy, Brookings Institution (2015-2016) AFFILIATIONS Co-Facilitator, GIFCT CAPPI Working Group (2020-) Co-PI, Brookings High-Level Working Group on Disinformation (2019-2020) Member, Christchurch Call Advisory Network (2019-) Adjunct Professor, Georgetown University (2019-) Member, Research Advisory Council, RESOLVE Network (2019-) Member, Digital Freedom Forum, CNAS (2019-) EDUCATION A.B., highest honors in field, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, 2002 M.Div., S.T.M, Yale University, NeW Haven, CT, 2009, 2010 Ph.D., University of Maryland, College Park, MD, 2017 RESEARCH Artificial intelligence, emerging technology, international security; digital INTERESTS authoritarianism; counterterrorism and countering violent extremism; nonparametric machine learning, interpretable machine learning, differential privacy and homomorphic encryption, decentralized ledger technology WRITING “Exporting Digital Authoritarianism,” Brookings Institution, September 2019. (With Alina Polyakova.) “HoW Big Tech Can Fight White Supremacist Terrorism,” Foreign Affairs, August 2019. (With Daniel Byman.) “Terrorist Definitions and Designation -
Uncertainty and Civil War Onset
Uncertainty and Civil War Onset Iris Malone∗ Abstract Why do some armed groups escalate their campaigns to civil war, while others do not? Only 25% of the 960 armed groups formed between 1970 and 2012 became violent enough to surpass the 25-battle death threshold, often used to demarcate \civil conflict.” I develop a new theory that argues this variation occurs because of an information problem. States decide how much counterinsurgency effort to allocate for repression on the basis of observable characteristics about an armed group's initial capabilities, but two scenarios make it harder to get this decision right, increasing the risk of civil war. I use fieldwork interviews with intelligence and defense officials to identify important group characteristics for civil war and apply machine learning methods to test the predictive ability of these indicators. The results show that less visible armed groups in strong states and strong armed groups in weak states are most likely to lead to civil war onset. These findings advance scholarly understanding about why civil wars begin and the effect of uncertainty on conflict. ∗Department of Political Science, 100 Encina Hall West, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305. ([email protected], web.stanford.edu/~imalone). 1 Introduction Why do some armed groups escalate their campaigns to civil war, while most do not? Using an original dataset, I show that only 25% of the 960 armed groups formed between 1970 and 2012 became violent enough to surpass the 25-battle death threshold, often used to demarcate \civil conflict.”1 Only 8% of armed groups surpassed the higher \civil war" threshold of 1000 fatalities per year. -
Political Violence and War
Chapter 2 Political Violence and War In their respective conclusions to examinations of the literature on possible linkages between internal and external conflict, both Stohl (1980) and Levy (1989) decry the apparent lack of theory development as the main impediment to progress in our understanding and the accumulation of knowledge on this subject. Stohl goes on to claim that, The construction of an adequate theory of conflict linkages is dependent upon the reciprocal development of theories of political conflict and violence in general. As previously indicated, theorists of internal and external conflict have avoided consideration of conflict outside their particular focus when constructing their theories. The evidence we have reviewed...suggests that this has been an error and thus a hindrance to the development of conflict theory. (Stohl 1980, 326) It is, however, unusual within the political science discipline for scholars to lend much credence to such linkage and other macro-theoretical arguments. The skeletal structure lent to our global security affairs by the construction of modern political states demarcated by spatial borders and exclusive juridical domains provides a strong rationale for closure, compartmentalization, and specialization in scholarship. Yet, the idea of a nexus between internal and external conflict, and especially warfare, gains in both saliency and immediacy as the political borders separating the internal from the external become more permeable. It seems almost facetious to suggest that the key to an understanding of any nexus between internal and external political conflict should focus on the agency and structure of that which defines the distinction, that is on political borders themselves. -
A Great and Sudden Change: the Global Political Violence Landscape Before and After the COVID-19 Pandemic
A Great and Sudden Change: The Global Political Violence Landscape Before and After the COVID-19 Pandemic acleddata.com/2020/08/04/a-great-and-sudden-change-the-global-political-violence-landscape-before-and-after-the- covid-19-pandemic/ August 4, 2020 In this special report, ACLED Research Analyst Melissa Pavlik reviews key findings from 16 weeks of data recorded by our COVID-19 Disorder Tracker, highlighting the most significant changes to global political violence and demonstrations trends since the onset of the pandemic. Introduction The coronavirus pandemic has brought at least half of the world under lockdown ( New York Times, 3 April 2020), and killed — at the time of writing — over half a million people (Johns Hopkins University, 31 July 2020). As humanity struggles against this deadly threat, the virus has transformed political priorities and behavior across the globe. Political conflict is a function of politics: as politics shift, so too do political violence patterns. The end of June marked 16 weeks since the World Health Organization (WHO) declared COVID-19 a pandemic (WHO, 11 March 2020). Since March, the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) has monitored resulting shifts in political violence and protest patterns around the globe through the COVID-19 Disorder Tracker (CDT). The project has documented varying responses across countries and contexts. In some places, reactionary populist leaders refused to take the virus seriously, preferring to perform politics as usual against a backdrop of the rising death toll. In others, power shifted between the people and the state, with the pandemic bringing a halt to mass protest movements and increasing the opportunity for government repression (Foreign Policy, 21 July 2020). -
The Ongoing Insurgency in Southern Thailand: Trends in Violence, Counterinsurgency Operations, and the Impact of National Politics by Zachary Abuza
STRATEGIC PERSPECTIVES 6 The Ongoing Insurgency in Southern Thailand: Trends in Violence, Counterinsurgency Operations, and the Impact of National Politics by Zachary Abuza Center for Strategic Research Institute for National Strategic Studies National Defense University Institute for National Strategic Studies National Defense University The Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS) is National Defense University’s (NDU’s) dedicated research arm. INSS includes the Center for Strategic Research, Center for Technology and National Security Policy, Center for Complex Operations, and Center for Strategic Conferencing. The military and civilian analysts and staff who comprise INSS and its subcomponents execute their mission by conducting research and analysis, and publishing, and participating in conferences, policy support, and outreach. The mission of INSS is to conduct strategic studies for the Secretary of Defense, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and the Unified Combatant Commands in support of the academic programs at NDU and to perform outreach to other U.S. Government agencies and the broader national security community. Cover: Thai and U.S. Army Soldiers participate in Cobra Gold 2006, a combined annual joint training exercise involving the United States, Thailand, Japan, Singapore, and Indonesia. Photo by Efren Lopez, U.S. Air Force The Ongoing Insurgency in Southern Thailand: Trends in Violence, Counterinsurgency Operations, and the Impact of National Politics The Ongoing Insurgency in Southern Thailand: Trends in Violence, Counterinsurgency Operations, and the Impact of National Politics By Zachary Abuza Institute for National Strategic Studies Strategic Perspectives, No. 6 Series Editors: C. Nicholas Rostow and Phillip C. Saunders National Defense University Press Washington, D.C. -
Filling Terrorism Gaps: Veos, Evaluating Databases, and Applying Risk Terrain Modeling to Terrorism RH Hagan
PNNL-25727 Filling Terrorism Gaps: VEOs, Evaluating Databases, and Applying Risk Terrain Modeling to Terrorism RH Hagan August 2016 PNNL-25727 Filling Terrorism Gaps: VEOs, Evaluating Databases, and Applying Risk Terrain Modeling to Terrorism RH Hagan August 2016 Prepared for the U.S. Department of Energy under Contract DE-AC05-76RL01830 Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Richland, Washington 99352 PNNL-25727 Abstract This paper aims to address three issues: the lack of literature differentiating terrorism and violent extremist organizations (VEOs), terrorism incident databases, and the applicability of Risk Terrain Modeling (RTM) to terrorism. Current open source literature and publicly available government sources do not differentiate between terrorism and VEOs; furthermore, they fail to define them. Addressing the lack of a comprehensive comparison of existing terrorism data sources, a matrix comparing a dozen terrorism databases is constructed, providing insight toward the array of data available. RTM, a method for spatial risk analysis at a micro level, has some applicability to terrorism research, particularly for studies looking at risk indicators of terrorism. Leveraging attack data from multiple databases, combined with RTM, offers one avenue for closing existing research gaps in terrorism literature. iii Acknowledgments The author would like to sincerely thank several individuals for their contributions to this research. My mentor, Chrissie Noonan, for her guidance and support throughout this process, Carolyn Cramer for her operational support and insight, Alex Stephan, Lead for the Special Programs and Scientific Studies Team at PNNL, George Muller for his support and direction, Hannah Trump for her substantial help with the appendices, and Dan Fortin, Sam Chatterjee, and Thomas Johansen for the constant discussions. -
Foreign Military Interventions and Suicide Attacks
Article Journal of Conflict Resolution 2017, Vol. 61(2) 271-297 ª The Author(s) 2015 Foreign Military Reprints and permission: sagepub.com/journalsPermissions.nav DOI: 10.1177/0022002715576575 Interventions journals.sagepub.com/home/jcr and Suicide Attacks Seung-Whan Choi1, and James A. Piazza2 Abstract This study examines the effect of foreign military interventions on the incidence of suicide attacks. It presents three theoretical explanations. Foreign military inter- ventions may boost insurgent use of suicide attacks by (a) fomenting a nationalist backlash that sanctions the use of more extreme and unconventional tactics like suicide attacks, (b) providing more and better targets against which suicide attacks can be launched, or (c) prompting insurgents to use suicide tactics in order to overcome their power asymmetries and to confront better defended targets that are enhanced by interventions. We test these competing explanations using a bat- tery of statistical tests on cross-national, time-series data for 138 countries during the period from 1981 to 2005. We find that only foreign interventions with specific features—pro-government interventions involving larger numbers of ground troops—boost suicide attacks in countries experiencing interventions. This finding suggests that by tipping the balance of power against insurgents and hardening targets in the context of assisting a local government, foreign military interventions are likely to increase the use of suicide attacks by regime challengers. Keywords terrorism, suicide bombings, military intervention, international security 1Department of Political Science (MC 276), University of Illinois at Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA 2Department of Political Science, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA Corresponding Author: James A. -
Patterns of Terrorism in the United States, 1970-2013
Patterns of Terrorism in the United States, 1970-2013 Final Report to Resilient Systems Division, DHS Science and Technology Directorate October 2014 National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism A Department of Homeland Security Science and Technology Center of Excellence Based at the University of Maryland 8400 Baltimore Ave, Suite 250 • College Park, MD 20740 • 301.405.6600 www.start.umd.edu National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism A Department of Homeland Security Science and Technology Center of Excellence About This Report The author of this report is Erin Miller at the University of Maryland. Questions about this report should be directed to Erin Miller at [email protected]. The initial collection of data for the Global Terrorism Database (GTD) data was carried out by the Pinkerton Global Intelligence Services (PGIS) between 1970 and 1997 and was donated to the University of Maryland in 2001. Digitizing and validating the original GTD data from 1970 to 1997 was funded by a grant from the National Institute of Justice in 2004 (PIs Gary LaFree and Laura Dugan; grant number: NIJ2002-DT-CX-0001) and in 2005 as part of the START Center of Excellence by the Department of Homeland Security Science and Technology Directorate (DHS S&T), Office of University Programs (PI Gary LaFree; grant numbers N00140510629 and 2008-ST-061-ST0004). Data collection for incidents that occurred between January 1998 and March 2008 and updates to the earlier data to make it consistent with new GTD coding criteria were funded by the DHS S&T Human Factors/Behavioral Sciences Division (HFD) (PIs Gary LaFree and Gary Ackerman; contract number HSHQDC-05-X-00482) and conducted by database staff at the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START) and the Center for Terrorism and Intelligence Studies (CETIS). -
Jurisdiction Over Terrorists Who Take Hostages: Efforts to Stop Terror-Violence Against United States Citizens Elizabeth R
American University International Law Review Volume 2 | Issue 1 Article 3 1987 Jurisdiction Over Terrorists Who Take Hostages: Efforts to Stop Terror-Violence Against United States Citizens Elizabeth R. P. Bowen Follow this and additional works at: http://digitalcommons.wcl.american.edu/auilr Part of the International Law Commons Recommended Citation Bowen, Elizabeth R. P. "Jurisdiction Over Terrorists Who Take Hostages: Efforts to Stop Terror-Violence Against United States Citizens." American University International Law Review 2, no. 1 (1987): 153-202. This Article is brought to you for free and open access by the Washington College of Law Journals & Law Reviews at Digital Commons @ American University Washington College of Law. It has been accepted for inclusion in American University International Law Review by an authorized administrator of Digital Commons @ American University Washington College of Law. For more information, please contact [email protected]. NOTES AND COMMENTS JURISDICTION OVER TERRORISTS WHO TAKE HOSTAGES: EFFORTS TO STOP TERROR-VIOLENCE AGAINST UNITED STATES CITIZENS Elizabeth R. P. Bowen* INTRODUCTION ............................... 154 I. INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM: A GLOBAL CON- C ER N .......................................... 157 A. Hostage Taking: A Terror Tactic ............... 157 B. Definitional Dilemma: Terrorists v. Freedom Fighters ................................... 158 II. UNDERLYING AGITATORS .................... 162 A. State-Sponsored Terrorism ..................... 162 B. The Nature of Terrorist Warfare: Invisible Block- ades ........................................ 164 C. Television: The Role of the Media in the Growth of International Terrorism ........................ 165 1. First Amendment Balance ................. 166 2. Law Enforcement and Media .............. 167 D. Extradition: The Key to Prosecution ............. 168 III. UNITED STATES RESPONSE TO TERRORISM .. 171 A. Domestic Legislation .......................... 172 B. International Efforts of the United States .......