DOCSLIB.ORG

Imfsfaffpapers

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Imfsfaffpapers IMFsfaffpapers Robert Flood Editor and Committee Chair Ratna Sahay Co-Editor Marina Primorac Assistant Editor Rebecca Coke Research Assistant La Quita Pinkston Administrative Coordinator Editorial Committee F. Charles Adams Liam Ebrill William E. Alexander Atish R. Ghosh Brian Aitken Nadeem Haque Tamim Bayoumi Donald J. Mathieson Sharmini Coorey Eswar S. Prasad Among the responsibilities of the International Monetary Fund, as set forth in its Articles of Agreement, is the obligation to "act as a centre for the collection and exchange of informa- tion on monetary and financial problems." IMF Staff Papers makes available to a wider audi- ence papers prepared by IMF staff members. The views presented in the papers are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Executive Board or of the IMF To facilitate electronic storage and retrieval of bibliographic data, IMF Staff Papers has adopted the subject classification scheme developed by the Journal of Economic Literature. Subscription: $US54.00 a volume or the approximate equivalent in the currencies of most countries. Four issues constitute a volume. Single copies may be purchased at $18. The individual academic rate to full-time professors and students of universities and colleges is $27 a volume. Subscriptions and orders should be sent to: International Monetary Fund Publication Services 700 19th Street, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20431, U.S.A. Telephone: (202) 623-7430 Fax: (202) 623-7201 E-mail: [email protected] Internet: http://www.imf.org ©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution International Monetary Fund Volume 46 Number 1 IMFstaffpapers March 1999 ©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution EDITOR'S NOTE The Editor invites from contributors outside the IMF brief comments (not more than 1,000 words) on published articles in IMF Staff Papers. These comments should be addressed to the Editor, who will forward them to the author of the original article for reply. Both the comments and the reply will be considered for publication. The data underlying articles published in IMF Staff Papers are available on the journal©s website (http://www.imf.org/staffpapers). Readers are invited to use these data to expand on the material in the articles, and the journal will consider publishing such work. © 1999 by the International Monetary Fund International Standard Serial Number: ISSN 1020-7635 The U.S. Library of Congress has cataloged this serial publication as follows: International Monetary Fund Staff papers Ð International Monetary Fund. v. 1- Feb. 1950- [Washington] International Monetary Fund. v. tables, diagrs. 23 cm. Three no. a year, 1950-1977; four no. a year. 1978- Indexes: Vols. 1-27, 1950-80, 1 v. ISSN 1020-7635 = Staff papers Ð International Monetary Fund. 1. Foreign exchangeÐPeriodicals. 2. CommerceÐPeriodicals. 3. Currency questionÐPeriodicals. HG3810.15 332.082 53-35483 ©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution Letter from the Editor Dear Readers, I am the new Editor of the International Monetary Fund©s academic journal, IMF Staff Papers. I have worked in the Research Department at the IMF for over 11 years and have served at the co-editor level for the Journal of International Economics and the American Economic Review. Along with my editorship, the journal has instituted several changes. First, the name of Staff Papers has changed to IMF Staff Papers, and the journal has a new look. Second, the refereeing process has been changed to the extent that papers sub- mitted to IMF Staff Papers are now subject to expert review outside the IMF. Third, all papers and underlying data published by IMF Staff Papers are now available freely at our web site (http://www.imf.org/staffpapers). And finally, from time to time the journal will publish issues devoted fully or partly to special topics sug- gested by staff, subscribers, and other readers. It is my intention to continue the journal©s long tradition of publishing papers by IMF staff and invited guests on a variety of topics of interest to the IMF, our mem- ber countries, and our general readers. In addition, the journal will continue to pub- lish outside comments, criticisms, and interesting replications relating to our published work. Sincerely, Robert P. Flood Editor, IMF Staff Papers iii ©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution This page intentionally left blank ©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution International Monetary Fund Volume 46 Number 1 Contents March 1999 How Do the Skilled and the Unskilled Respond to Regional Shocks? The Case of Spain Paolo Mauro and Antonio Spilimbergo • 1 Growth, Trade, and Deindustrialization Robert Rowthorn and Ramana Ramaswamy • 18 Regional Trade Agreements or Broad Liberalization: Which Path Leads to Faster Growth? Athanasios Vamvakidis • 42 Exchange and Capital Controls as Barriers to Trade Natalia T. Tamirisa • 69 Deviations of Exchange Rates from Purchasing Power Parity: A Story Featuring Two Monetary Unions Tamim Bayoumi and Ronald MacDonald • 89 ©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution This page intentionally left blank ©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution IMF Staff Papers Vol. 46, No. 1 (March 1999) © 1999 International Monetary Fund How Do the Skilled and the Unskilled Respond to Regional Shocks? The Case of Spain PAOLO MAURO and ANTONIO SPILIMBERGO* Are there any differences in how workers of different skill levels respond to regional shocks? This paper addresses that question using the methodology of Blanchard and Katz (1992) and a unique data set on working-age population, labor force, and employ- ment for five educational groups (ranging from the illiterate to the college-educated) over 1964—92 for the 50 Spanish provinces. The paper finds that the highly skilled migrate very promptly in response to a decline in regional labor demand, while low- skilled workers drop out of the labor force or stay unemployed. [JEL E24, J61] When workers in a given region lose their jobs, do they remain unemployed, drop out of the labor force, or migrate? In other words, what are the mechanisms of adjustment to local labor demand shocks? Existing studies, beginning with the seminal paper by Blanchard and Katz (1992) on the 50 U.S. states, and including those by Decressin and Fatas (1995) on the regions of Europe and by Obstfeld and Peri (1998) on the regions of a wide range of industrial countries, have addressed that question with respect to the labor force as a whole. However, owing in part to data limitations, none of *Paolo Mauro is an Economist in the IMF©s European I Department and Antonio Spilimbergo is an Economist in the Research Department. Paolo Mauro received his Ph.D. from Harvard University. Antonio Spilimbergo received his Ph.D. from M.I.T. The authors gratefully acknowledge helpful com- ments and suggestions by Jacques Artus, Maria Carkovic, Jorg Decressin, Enrica Detragiache, Robert Flood, Martin Hardy, Alexander Hoffmaister, Michael Mussa, Danny Quah, Peter Wickham, Charles Wyplosz, and seminar participants at the International Monetary Fund and the European Economic Association meetings, as well as high-quality research assistance by Madhuri Edwards, and indebted to Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Economicas for providing data. 1 ©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution Paolo Mauro and Antonio Spilimbergo those studies has examined whether the relative speed and strength of these adjustment mechanisms depend on workers© educational levels. To fill that gap, this paper analyzes the dynamic responses to regional labor demand shocks in Spain, considering separately various educational groups. There are good reasons to expect that workers with different educational levels will respond in different ways to regional labor demand shocks. In fact, the opportu- nity cost of not working is typically higher for the highly skilled.1 Therefore, in response to a job loss motivated by a collapse in local labor demand, the highly skilled are more likely than low-skilled workers to migrate rather than remaining unem- ployed or dropping out of the labor force. It is also important to recognize that the adjustment mechanisms to labor demand shocks by workers of different educational levels depend on existing labor market institutions and policies. This can be seen by considering two extreme hypothetical cases: in the presence of very generous unem- ployment compensation, migration might be an unattractive option for low-skilled workers, though perhaps still not for the highly skilled; by contrast, in the presence of low unemployment compensation, both low-skilled and highly skilled workers might have similarly strong incentives to migrate. This paper focuses on the case of Spain. It uses a data set on employment, labor force, and working-age population by educational level for the 50 provinces of Spain over 1964-92. That data set, published by the Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Economicas, is almost unique in that similar data are not easily available for any other countries. Beyond the advantage of data availability, how- ever, the case of Spain is extremely interesting in itself. Not only does Spain have the highest unemployment rate (19 percent in mid-1998) among industrial coun- tries, but it also displays large and persistent unemployment rate differences among its regions. By analyzing how workers with different educational levels respond to regional labor demand shocks, this paper considers those issues from a new angle. It also forms part of
Load more

Recommended publications
  • THE GODLEY-TOBIN LECTURE Robert Rowthorn WP 512 June 2019
    “KEYNESIAN ECONOMICS– BACK FROM THE DEAD?” THE GODLEY-TOBIN LECTURE Robert Rowthorn WP 512 June 2019 KEYNESIAN ECONOMICS– BACK FROM THE DEAD? THE GODLEY-TOBIN LECTURE Centre for Business Research, University of Cambridge Working Paper no. 512 Robert Rowthorn Faculty of Economics and Kings College University of Cambridge Email: [email protected] June 2019 Abstract This paper surveys some the main developments in macroeconomics since the anti- Keynesian counter-revolution forty years ago. It covers both mainstream and heterodox economics. Amongst the topics discussed are: New Keynesian economics, Modern Monetary Theory (MMT), expansionary fiscal contraction, unconventional monetary policy, the Phillips curve, and hysteresis. The conclusion is that Keynesian economics is alive and well, and that there has been a degree of convergence between heterodox and mainstream economics. JEL Codes: E60, E10, E31, B22. Keywords: Macroeconomics, Keynesian economics, Keynes Acknowledgements: I should like to thank Wendy Carlin, Geoffrey Harcourt, Bill Martin and Thomas Michl for their comments on an earlier draft of this paper. The paper is forthcoming in Review of Keynesian Economics. Further information about the Centre for Business Research can be found at: www.cbr.cam.ac.uk 1. Introduction When Thomas Palley asked me to give this year’s Godley-Tobin Lecture, he suggested that I might present my views about modern developments in macroeconomics. At first, I baulked at the idea of covering such a vast field, but then I decided it would be an interesting challenge. To the extent that there is one, the underlying theme of my lecture is that, since the initial anti-Keynesian counter-revolution forty years ago, Keynesian economics has made something of a come-back.
    [Show full text]
  • Information Technology, Organizational Form, and Transition to the Market
    Upjohn Institute Working Papers Upjohn Research home page 6-1-2004 Information Technology, Organizational Form, and Transition to the Market John S. Earle W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research Ugo Pagano University of Siena Maria Lesi Budapest University of Economic Sciences Upjohn Institute Working Paper No. 02-82 **Published Version** In Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization 60(4): 471-489 (2006). Follow this and additional works at: https://research.upjohn.org/up_workingpapers Part of the Eastern European Studies Commons Citation Earle, John S., Ugo Pagano, and Maria Lesi. 2002. "Information Technology, Organizational Form, and Transition to the Market." Upjohn Institute Working Paper No. 02-82. Kalamazoo, MI: W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research. https://doi.org/10.17848/wp02-82 This title is brought to you by the Upjohn Institute. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Information Technology, Organizational Form, and Transition to the Market Upjohn Institute Staff Working Paper 02-82 John S. Earle* Upjohn Institute for Employment Research Central European University Ugo Pagano University of Siena Central European University and Maria Lesi Budapest University of Economic Sciences Central European University Revised: June 2004 Abstract The paper reviews theories of information technology adoption and organizational form and applies them to an empirical analysis of firm choices and characteristics in four transition economies: the Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania, and Slovakia. We argue that these economies have gone through two major structural changes – one concerning technology and another concerning ownership and boundaries of firms – and we consider if and how each of the two structural changes has affected the other.
    [Show full text]
  • The Old and New Economics of Imperialism
    THE OLD AND NEW ECONOMICS OF IMPERIALISM G REGORY A LBO riting forty years ago in the first volume of the Socialist Register, Hamza WAlavi argued that it was necessary to turn to an analysis of a ‘new impe- rialism’, because the ‘end of direct colonial rule … [had] not yet precipitated that final crisis which was to see the end of monopoly capitalism and to herald the age of socialism.’ Insisting that the key dynamic in the world economy could no longer be captured by the classic theories of imperialism of territorial expan- sionism in the search for economic outlets, he concluded that the principal aim of … the new imperialism is not the export of capital as a means of exploiting cheap labour overseas. It is rather that of concen- trating investment at home to expand production in the metropolitan country and of seeking to dominate world markets on which it establishes its grasp by a variety of means …1 This insight, at once theoretical and political, remains central to the analysis of the new imperialism today in terms of the systemic reproduction of uneven development and the hierarchical organizational arrangement of the world market through formally equal economic exchanges and political relations between states.2 By locating imperialism in terms of the law of value and the rule of law, ‘consent’ can be seen as important as ‘coercion’ in understanding modern imperialism. The internationalisation of capital during the long period of neoliberalism since the 1980s has given rise to new patterns and contradictions in the world market and has had profound effects on the institutionalization of state power, the organization of state apparatuses and the relations between states.
    [Show full text]
  • The Godley–Tobin Lecture*
    Review of Keynesian Economics, Vol. 8 No. 1, Spring 2020, pp. 1–20 The Godley–Tobin lecture* Keynesian economics – back from the dead? Robert Rowthorn** Emeritus Professor of Economics, University of Cambridge, UK This paper surveys some of the main developments in macroeconomics since the anti- Keynesian counter-revolution 40 years ago. It covers both mainstream and heterodox economics. Amongst the topics discussed are: New Keynesian economics, Modern Mone- tary Theory, expansionary fiscal contraction, unconventional monetary policy, the Phillips curve, hysteresis, and heterodox theories of growth and distribution. The conclusion is that Keynesian economics is alive and well, and that there has been a degree of convergence between heterodox and mainstream economics. Keywords: macroeconomics, Keynesian economics, Keynes, MMT JEL codes: E60, E10, E31, B22 1 INTRODUCTION When Thomas Palley asked me to give this year’sGodley–Tobin Lecture, he suggested that I might present my views about modern developments in macroeconomics. At first, I baulked at the idea of covering such a vast field, but then I decided it would be an interesting challenge. To the extent that there is one, the underlying theme of my lecture is that, since the initial anti-Keynesian counter-revolution 40 years ago, Keynesian economics has made something of a comeback. It would be an exaggeration to say that ‘we are all Keynesians now’, but surveys indicate that many leading economists in the USA and the UK have Keynesian sympathies (CFM 2014; IGM Forum 2014). 2 BACKGROUND Forty years ago macroeconomics was dominated by Keynesians. Many of their views could be traced back to Keynes, although there had also been various innovations by authors such as Alvin Hansen, John Hicks, Abba Lerner and William Phillips.
    [Show full text]
  • Oxford Symposium on Population, Migration, and the Environment
    Oxford Symposium on Population, Migration, and the Environment Symposium Facilitators Trevor Davies, Emeritus Fellow, University of Reading, UK Oxford Symposium on Population, Migration, and the Environment MONDAY, 1 AUGUST 2016 ROTHEREMERE AMERICAN INSTITUE, OXFORD 8:50 – 9:00 A.M. Introduction and Welcome Symposium Facilitator, Trevor Davies. Emeritus Fellow, University of Reading, UK 9:00 – 9:30 A.M. Keynote Speaker Topic: The Demographic and Economic Impacts of Migration Robert Rowthorn, Senior Research Fellow, University of Oxford, and Emeritus Professor of Economics, University of Cambridge, UK 9:30 – 10:00 A.M. Topic: Water, Sanitation, and Religion: Sustainability in Religious Tradition and Practice Presenter: Ashlynn Stillwell, Assistant Professor, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, US 10:00 – 10:30 A.M. Tea/Coffee Biscuits 10:30 – 11:00 A.M. Topic: Biology and the Bible: Some New and Not-So-New Considerations Regarding Population Presenter: Nola Stewart, Member, Sustainable Population, Australia. 11:00 – 11:30 A.M. Topic: All Along the Watchtower: The Radical Other and Internal Border Crossing Presenter: Michael E. Sawyer, Assistant Professor, Colorado College, US 11:30 – 12:00 Noon. Topic: Healthcare in 'Mexican Chicago': On the Power of Undocumented Status Presenter: Brian Tuohy, PhD Candidate, University of Chicago, US 12:15 –1:15 P.M. Buffet Lunch 1:15 – 1:45 P.M. Topic: Female Technical Education in Conflict-Affected Countries: The Cases of Afghanistan and Iraq Presenters: Kenneth Holland, Professor, Ball State University and Julie Lebo, Development Consultant, Ball State University, US 1:45 – 2:15 P.M. Topic: Migration, Population Density, and the Demands of Agricultural Education in Haiti: The Case of UNOGA Presenter: Kathleen Tobin, Associate Professor, Purdue University Northwest, US 2:15 – 2:45 P.M.
    [Show full text]
  • Essays on Institutional Complementarities, Organizational Forms and Knowledge Economy
    ESSAYS ON INSTITUTIONAL COMPLEMENTARITIES, ORGANIZATIONAL FORMS AND KNOWLEDGE ECONOMY Erkan Gürpınar Supervisor Defence Committee Prof. Ugo Pagano Prof. Samuel Bowles Prof. Robert Rowthorn Prof. Ernesto Screpanti Thesis Submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Economics Department of Economics and Statistics University of Siena June 2013 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS First and foremost, I would like to thank to my supervisor Ugo Pagano. The influence of his approach on my ideas could be found in all the chapters of the thesis. Some parts of the first two chapters were written when I was a visiting student at the Centre of Development Studies, Cambridge University. In particular, I would like to thank to Prof. Ha-Joon Chang for his comments and suggestions on the first two chapters of the thesis. I am also indebted to Prof. Samuel Bowles and Prof. Serena Sordi for their valuable comments on the second paper. This work has also benefited from comments and suggestions of Nicodemo De Vito, Paolo Pin and M. Alessandra Rossi. I would like to thank to Ariel Dvoskin not only for his comments and suggestions, but also for the time he has spent with me discussing in detail my papers. I should also express my gratitude to my colleagues Fabio Landini, Gabriel Burdin, Gioia de Melo, and Ramon Boixadera for the discussions about my papers and economics in general. Last but not least, I would like to express my gratitude to Selin Gökten to whom the thesis is dedicated. i TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS _____________________________________ i TABLE
    [Show full text]
  • Robert Rowthorn . Ownership, Technology and Institutional Stability.*
    UGO PAGANO - ROBERT ROWTHORN . OWNERSHIP, TECHNOLOGY AND INSTITUTIONAL STABILITY.*. For a given technology, the ownership of the firm goes to the high-agency-cost factors that can save the most on agency costs when they own the organisation. At the same time, owning factors choose technologies that save on the use of other high-agency-cost factors. Thus, ownership and technology define self-reinforcing multiple organisational equilibria. The institutional stability of an organisational equilibrium depends on the possibility of substituting non-owning high-agency-cost factors away from the organisation; it increases together with the elasticity of substitution. * University of Siena and Cambridge University. We thank Sam Bowles, Lilli Basile, Frank Hahn, Geoff Harcourt and for useful comments to early drafts of this paper. We are grateful to C.N.R. for financial support. This paper is part of a U.N. W.I.D.E.R research on enterprise democracy. The usual caveats apply. 1 Introduction. In recent economic theory the firm is defined as an institution where some agents exercise some governance over other agents. Governance can improve on market transactions when agency costs are high because of the existence of specific or difficult-to-monitor assets. Three questions arise in this context: 1) which factors will control the organisation and will have the power to "design" the production process1? 2) how will different factors exercise this power? 3) will the exercise of this power change the nature of the technology and of the factors employed in the firm? 1) The first question can be answered by observing that if governance arises to save on agency costs, organisations should be controlled by the most specific or difficult-to-monitor factors: they will able to save the most on the risk-premium due to resource specificity or on the monitoring expenses that would have to be paid if they were employed in other people's organisations .
    [Show full text]
  • The Fiscal Impact of Immigration on the Advanced Economies
    Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Volume 24, Number 3, 2008, pp.560–580 The fiscal impact of immigration on the advanced economies Downloaded from Robert Rowthorn∗ http://oxrep.oxfordjournals.org/ Abstract This paper is concerned with the advanced economies. It begins with a discussion of the demo- graphic issues that have played such a large role in the debate on immigration. This is followed by a section on the main problems involved in estimating the fiscal impact of immigration and then a summary of the international evidence on this topic, mostly from Europe and America. Separate sections on the UK and on low-fertility countries follow. The main conclusions are as follows. Highly skilled migrants normally make a large fiscal contribution, whereas unskilled migrants are likely to impose a net cost on native taxpayers if they settle in the receiving country. However, even unskilled migrants may be net contributors if they eventually at Dokuz Eylul University Library (DEU) on September 20, 2012 depart and make few claims on government expenditure while in the country. Most empirical studies find that the fiscal contribution of the immigrant population as a whole is quite small. The positive contribution of some migrants is largely or wholly offset by the negative contribution of others. This finding holds across a variety of countries and methodologies. Estimates of the net fiscal contribution of immigration normally lie within the range ±1 per cent of GDP. There are a few exceptions, but these refer to countries experiencing demographic collapse and they are based on unrealistic assumptions about the inter-generational allocation of future taxes and government expenditure.
    [Show full text]
  • The Uno Newsletter: Rejuvenating Marxian Economics Through Uno Theory (Vol
    The Uno Newsletter: Rejuvenating Marxian Economics through Uno Theory (Vol. II, No. 15) 20 April 2015 In the third English volume of the Uno Newsletter, we feature two articles on Piketty’s Capital in the twenty-first century. Makoto Itoh (University of Tokyo) comments on significance and problems in Piketty’s analyses and then examines from a Marxian perspective. Robert Rowthorn (Cambridge University) argues that Piketty's assumption regarding the elasticity of substitution is not correct, and that his method for measuring changes in the capital-output ratio is misleading. Contributions include three working papers. Makoto Nishibe (Hokkaido University) identifies three modes of commodification (external, internal and general mode) with different degrees of economic integration by the market, and analyzes the transition of three modes of capitalist economy by using the simple models. Tsuyoshi Yuki (Saitama University) re-examines the capital theory debate between Gesell and Marx, and shows why Gesell’s concept of capital has been rehabilitated now under financialisation. Kei Ehara (Saitama University) reviews development of crisis theory after Uno following the debates on the process of accumulation, on the credit system and on reorganisation of the stages theory concerning crisis. The Uno Newsletter (in Japanese) started after the 30th Memorial Conference (2007) in honour of Kozo Uno (1897-1977) who developed an approach to understanding capitalism (and appropriating Marx’s ideas) that contains three levels of analysis: the general theory of capitalism; the stages of capitalist development; and detailed studies of particular countries and time-periods. In the open spirit of Japanese political economy, contributions in the Uno Newsletter draw on diverse intellectual traditions.
    [Show full text]
  • Tendency of the Rate of Profit to Fall
    Tendency of the rate of profit to fall en.wikipedia.org /wiki/Tendency_of_the_rate_of_profit_to_fall The tendency of the rate of profit to fall (TRPF) is a hypothesis in economics and political economy, most famously expounded by Karl Marx in chapter 13 of Capital, Volume III.[1] Although not accepted in 20th century mainstream economics, the existence of such a tendency was widely noted throughout the 19th century.[2] Economists as diverse as Adam Smith,[3] John Stuart Mill,[4] David Ricardo[5] and Stanley Jevons[6] referred explicitly to the TRPF as an empirical phenomenon that needed to be explained. They differed in the reasons they gave for why the TRPF might necessarily occur.[7] In his 1857 Grundrisse manuscript, Karl Marx called the tendency of the rate of profit to fall "the most important law of political economy" and sought to give a causal explanation for it, in terms of his theory of capital accumulation.[8] The tendency is already foreshadowed in chapter 25 of Capital, Volume I (on the "general law of capital accumulation"), but in Part 3 of the draft manuscript of Marx's Capital, Volume III, edited posthumously for publication by Friedrich Engels, an extensive analysis is provided of the tendency. [9] Marx regarded the TRPF as proof that capitalist production could not be an everlasting form of production, since, in the end, the profit principle itself would suffer a breakdown.[10] However, because Marx never published any finished manuscript on the TRPF himself, because the tendency is hard to prove or disprove theoretically, and because it is hard to test and measure the rate of profit, Marx's TRPF theory has been a topic of controversy for more than a century.
    [Show full text]
  • Samuel Bowles and Wendy Carlin 28 October 2019 Abstract. We Make
    - Forthcoming Journal of Economic Literature- - WHAT STUDENTS LEARN IN ECONOMICS 101: TIME FOR A CHANGE Samuel Bowles and Wendy Carlin 28 October 2019 Abstract. We make the case for a shift in what students learn in a first economics course, taking as our exemplar Paul Samuelson’s paradigm-setting 1948 text. In the shadow of the Great Depression, Samuelson made Keynesian economics an essential component of what every economics student should know. By contrast, leading textbooks today were written in the glow of the Great Moderation and the tamed cyclical fluctuations in the two decades prior to 2007. Here, using topic modeling, we document Samuelson’s novelty and the evolution of the content of introductory textbooks since. And we advance three propositions. First, as was the case in the aftermath of the Great Depression, new problems now challenge the content of our introductory courses; these include mounting inequalities, climate change, concerns about the future of work, and financial instability. Second, the tools required to address these problems, including strategic interaction, limited information, principal-agent models, new behavioral foundations, and dynamic processes including instability and path-dependence, are available (indeed widely taught in PhD programs). And third, as we will illustrate by reference to a new open access introductory text, a course integrating these tools into a new benchmark model can be accessible, engaging, coherent and, as a result, successfully taught to first year students. Deployed to address the new problems, following Samuelson’s example, the new benchmark provides the basis for integrating not only micro- and macroeconomics but also the analysis of both market failures and the limits of government interventions.
    [Show full text]
  • Wynne Godley – a Bibliography
    Wynne Godley – A Bibliography Papers 1959 ‘Costs, Prices and Demand in the Short Run’, reprinted in M.J.C. Surrey (ed.), Macroeconomic Themes: Edited Readings in Macroeconomics with Commentaries (London: Oxford University Press, 1976) 1964 (with C. Gillion) ‘Measuring National Product’, National Institute Economic Review, February (with J.R. Shepherd) ‘Long-term Growth and Short-term Policy’, National Institute Economic Review, August (with C. Gillion) ‘Pricing Behaviour in the Engineering Industry’, National Institute Economic Review, August (with D.A. Rowe) ‘Retail and Consumer Prices 1955–1963’, National Institute Economic Review, November 1965 (with W.A.B. Hopkin) ‘An Analysis of Tax Changes’, National Institute Economic Review, May (with J.R. Shepherd) ‘Forecasting Imports’, National Institute Economic Review, August (with C. Gillion) ‘Pricing Behaviour in Manufacturing Industry’, National Institute Economic Review, August 1972 (with W.D. Nordhaus) ‘Pricing in the Trade Cycle’, Economic Journal, 82(327) (September): 853–82 (with J. Rhodes) ‘The Rate Support Grant System’, Proceedings of a Conference on Local Government Finance, Institute of Fiscal Studies, Publication no. 10 1973 (with T.F. Cripps) ‘Balance of Payments and Demand Management’, London and Cambridge Economic Bulletin, no. 82, January 1974 ‘Demand, Inflation and Economic Policy’, London and Cambridge Economic Bulletin, no. 84, January ‘The Concept of a Par Economy in Medium-term Analysis’, in G.D.N. Worswick and F.T. Blackbaby (eds) The Medium Term: Models of the British Economy (London: Heinemann) 377 378 Wynne Godley – A Bibliography 1975 (with A. Wood) ‘Profits and Stock Appreciation’, Economic Policy Review, no. 1, February 1976 (with T.F. Cripps) ‘A Formal Analysis of the Cambridge Economic Policy Group Model’, Economica, 43(172) (November): 335–48 (with T.F.
    [Show full text]