Wynne Godley – A Bibliography

Papers

1959 ‘Costs, Prices and Demand in the Short Run’, reprinted in M.J.C. Surrey (ed.), Macroeconomic Themes: Edited Readings in Macroeconomics with Commentaries (: , 1976)

1964 (with C. Gillion) ‘Measuring National Product’, National Institute Economic Review, February (with J.R. Shepherd) ‘Long-term Growth and Short-term Policy’, National Institute Economic Review, August (with C. Gillion) ‘Pricing Behaviour in the Engineering Industry’, National Institute Economic Review, August (with D.A. Rowe) ‘Retail and Consumer Prices 1955–1963’, National Institute Economic Review, November

1965 (with W.A.B. Hopkin) ‘An Analysis of Tax Changes’, National Institute Economic Review, May (with J.R. Shepherd) ‘Forecasting Imports’, National Institute Economic Review, August (with C. Gillion) ‘Pricing Behaviour in Manufacturing Industry’, National Institute Economic Review, August

1972 (with W.D. Nordhaus) ‘Pricing in the Trade Cycle’, Economic Journal, 82(327) (September): 853–82 (with J. Rhodes) ‘The Rate Support Grant System’, Proceedings of a Conference on Local Government Finance, Institute of Fiscal Studies, Publication no. 10

1973 (with T.F. Cripps) ‘Balance of Payments and Demand Management’, London and Cambridge Economic Bulletin, no. 82, January

1974 ‘Demand, Inflation and Economic Policy’, London and Cambridge Economic Bulletin, no. 84, January ‘The Concept of a Par Economy in Medium-term Analysis’, in G.D.N. Worswick and F.T. Blackbaby (eds) The Medium Term: Models of the British Economy (London: Heinemann)

377 378 Wynne Godley – A Bibliography

1975 (with A. Wood) ‘Profits and Stock Appreciation’, Economic Policy Review, no. 1, February

1976 (with T.F. Cripps) ‘A Formal Analysis of the Cambridge Economic Policy Group Model’, Economica, 43(172) (November): 335–48 (with T.F. Cripps and M.J. Fetherston) ‘What is Left of New Cambridge?’, Chapter 6, Economic Policy Review, no. 2, March ‘The Measurement and Control of Public Expenditure’, Chapter 8, Economic Policy Review, no. 2, March

1977 ‘Inflation in the ’, in L.B. Krause and W.S. Salant (eds), Worldwide Inflation: Theory and Recent Experience (Washington DC: Brookings Institution, 1977) (with C. Taylor) ‘Measuring the Effect of Public Expenditure’, in M. Posner (ed.), Public Expenditure (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1977) (with A. McFarquhar and D. Silvey) ‘The Cost of Food and Britain’s Membership of the EEC’, Economic Policy Review, no. 3, March, chapter 3 (with R. May) ‘The Macroeconomic Implications of Devaluation and Import Restriction’, Economic Policy Review, no. 3, March, chapter 2

1978 (with M.J. Fetherstone) ‘“New Cambridge” Macroeconomics and Global Monetarism: Some Issues in the Conduct of UK Economic Policy’, in K. Brunner and A.H. Meltzer (eds), Public Policies in Open Economies, Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, vol. 9(1): 33–65 (with T.F. Cripps) ‘Control of Imports as a Means to Full Employment and the Expansion of World Trade: the UK’s Case’, Cambridge Journal of , 2(3): 327–34 (with K.J. Coutts and W.D. Nordhaus) ‘Industrial Pricing in the United Kingdom’, Department of Applied Economics, Monograph 26 (London: Cambridge University Press) (with T.F. Cripps and M.J. Fetherstone) ‘Simulations with the CEPG Model’, in M. Posner (ed.), Demand Management (London: Heinemann) (with R. Bacon and A. McFarquhar) ‘The Direct Costs to Britain of Belonging to the EEC’, Economic Policy Review, no. 4, chapter 5, March

1979 ‘Britain’s Chronic Recession – Can Anything Be Done?’, in W. Beckerman (ed.), Slow Growth in Britain (Oxford: Clarendon Press), pp. 226–35

1981 ‘Monetarism is Three Countries: United Kingdom’, in D. Crane (ed.), Beyond the Monetarists: Post-Keynesian Alternatives to Rampant Inflation, Low Growth and High Unemployment (Toronto: James Lorimer), pp. 36–41 Wynne Godley – A Bibliography 379

1983 ‘Keynes and the Management of Real National Income and Expenditure’, in D. Worswick and J. Trevithick (eds) Keynes and the Modern World (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press), pp. 135–56 (with T.F. Cripps) Macroeconomics (London: Fontana) (with M. Anyadike-Danes) ‘Nominal Income Determination, Financial Assets and Liabilities and Fiscal Policy’, Brazilian Review of Econometrics, 3(2): 105–30

1984 ‘Confusion in Economic Theory and Policy – Is There a Way Out?’, in J. Cornwall (ed.), After Stagflation: Alternatives to Economic Decline (Oxford: Basil Blackwell), pp. 63–85

1985 (with K.J. Coutts and G.D. Gudgin) ‘Inflation Accounting of Whole Economic System’, Studies in Banking and Finance, 9(2) ‘Unemployment in Europe: the Strategic Problem of the Mid Eighties’, Neuer Protektionismus in der Weltwirtschaft und EG-Handelspolitik: Jahreskolloquium, pp. 99–108

1987 (with N.M. Christodoulakis) ‘A Dynamic Model for the Analysis of Trade Policy Options’, Journal of Policy Modeling, no. 9 (with M. Anyadike-Danes) ‘A Stock Adjustment Model of Income Determination with Inside Money and Private Debt’, in M. De Cecco and J.P. Fitoussi (eds), Monetary Theory and Economic Institutions (London: Macmillan) (with N.M. Christodoulakis) ‘Macroeconomic Consequences of Alternative Trade Policy Options’, Journal of Policy Modeling, 9(3): 405–36

1988 ‘The Sensibility of Contemporary Institutions’, Theology, March, 91(740): 89–94

1989 (with G. Zezza) ‘Foreign Debt, Foreign Trade and Living Conditions, with Special Reference to Denmark’, Nationalokonomisk Tidsskrift, 127(2): 229–35 (with M. Anyadike-Danes) ‘Real Wages and Employment: A Sceptical View of Some Recent Empirical Work’, The Manchester School, 57(2): 172–87 (with M. Anyadike-Danes) ‘Real Wages and Employment: Response to Nickell’s Comment’, The Manchester School, 57(3): 285 ‘The British Economy during the Thatcher Era’, Economics, 25(108) (Winter): 159–62 (with K.J. Coutts) ‘The British Economy Under Mrs Thatcher’, The Political Quarterly, 60(2) (April–June): 137–51

1990 (with K.J. Coutts, R. Rowthorn and G. Zezza) ‘Britain’s Economic Problems and Policies in the 1990s’, Economic Study no. 6 (London: Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR)) 380 Wynne Godley – A Bibliography

(with K.J. Coutts) ‘Prosperity and Foreign Trade in the 1990s: Britain’s Strategic Problem’, Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 6(3) (Autumn): 82–92 ‘The British Economy Under Mrs. Thatcher: A Rejoinder’, The Political Quarterly, 61(1): 101–2

1992 (with G. Zezza) ‘A Simple Real Stock Flow Model Illustrated with the Danish Economy’, in H. Brink (ed.), Themes in Modern Macroeconomics (London and Basingstoke: Macmillan), ch. 8, pp. 140–79 ‘Godley, Wynne (born 1926)’, in P. Arestis and M. Sawyer (eds), A Biograph- i cal Dictionary of Dissenting Economists (Aldershot: Edward Elgar), pp. 193–201 ‘Britain and the Danger of the EMU’, Samfundsokonomen, no. 7, November (with K.J. Coutts) ‘Does Britain’s Balance of Payments Matter Anymore?’, in J. Michie (ed.), The Economic Legacy: 1979–1992 (London: Academic Press), pp. 60–7 (with K.J. Coutts and J.G. Palma) ‘The British Economy under Mrs. Thatcher’, Economic Bulletin for Latin America ‘The Godley Papers: Economic Problems and Policies in the 1980s and 90s’ (London: New Statesman and Society)

1993 ‘Time, Increasing Returns and Institutions in Macroeconomics’, in S. Biasco, A. Roncaglia and M. Salvati (eds), Market and Institutions in Economic Development: Essays in Honour of Paolo Sylos Labini (New York: St. Martin’s Press)

1994 (with W. Milberg) ‘US Trade Deficits: The Recovery’s Dark Side?’, Challenge 37(6): 40–7 (with B. Rowthorn) ‘Appendix; The Dynamics of Public Sector Deficit and Debt’, in J. Michie and J. Grieve Smith (eds), Unemployment in Europe (London: Academic Press), pp. 199–206

1995 ‘The US Balance of Payments, International Indebtedness, and Economic Policy’, Levy Institute Public Policy Brief, no. 23

1997 (with G. McCarthy) ‘The Boskin Commission’s Trillion-Dollar Fantasy’, Challenge, 40(3): pp. 14–21

1998 (with G. McCarthy) ‘Fiscal Policy Will Matter.’, Challenge, 41(1) ( January– February): 38–54

1999 (with B. Martin) ‘America’s New Era’, Economic Outlook, 24(1) (October): 14–19 (with L.R. Wray) ‘Can Goldilocks Survive?’, Levy Institute Policy Note 1999/4 ‘How Negative Can US Saving Get?’, Levy Institute Policy Note 1999/1 Wynne Godley – A Bibliography 381

‘Money and Credit in a Keynesian Model of Income Determination’, Cambridge Journal of Economics, 23(4): 393–411 ‘Seven Unsustainable Processes: Medium Term Prospects and Policies for the US and World’, Levy Institute Strategic Analysis, January

2000 ‘Drowning in Debt’, Levy Institute Policy Note 2000/6 ‘Interim Report: Notes on the US Trade and Balance of Payments Deficits’, Levy Institute Strategic Analysis, January (with L.R. Wray) ‘Is Goldilocks Doomed?’, Journal of Economic Issues, 34(1) (March): 201–6

2001 (with A. Izurieta) ‘As the Implosion Begins...? Prospects and Policies for the US Economy: A Strategic View’, Levy Institute Strategic Analysis, July (with A. Izurieta) ‘“As the Implosion Begins...?”: A Rejoinder to Goldman Sachs’ J. Hatzius ‘The Un-Godley Private Sector Deficit’ in US Economic Analyst (27 July)’, Levy Institute Strategic Analysis, August ‘Fiscal Policy to the Rescue’, Levy Institute Policy Note 2001/1 ‘The Developing Recession in the United States’, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, 54(219): pp. 417–25 (with A. Izurieta) ‘The Developing US Recession and Guidelines for Policy’, Levy Institute Strategic Analysis, October (with M. Lavoie) ‘Kaleckian Models of Growth in a Coherent Stock-flow Monetary Framework: A Kaldorian View’, Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 24(2) (Winter): 277–311

2002 (with A. Izurieta) ‘The Case for a Severe Recession’, Challenge, 45(2) (April): 27–51 (with A. Shaikh) ‘An Important Inconsistency at the Heart of the Standard Macroeconomic Model’, Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 24(3) (Spring): 423–41 ‘Kick-start Strategy Fails to Fire Sputtering US Economic Motor’, Levy Institute Policy Note

2002/1 (with A. Izurieta) ‘Strategic Prospects and Policies for the US Economy’, Levy Institute Strategic Analysis, April

2003 ‘Sauver Masud Kahn’, Revue française de psychoanalyse, 67(3): 1015–28 (with A. Izurieta) ‘Coasting on the Lending Bubble. Both in the UK and the US’, Cambridge Endowment for Research in Finance Strategic Analysis ‘The US Economy: A Changing Strategic Predicament’, Levy Institute Strategic Analysis, March

2004 ‘Commentary to: Anne-Marie Sandler, “The Case of Masud Khan: Institutional Responses to Boundary Violations”’, International Journal of Psycho-Analysis, 85(1): 27–44 382 Wynne Godley – A Bibliography

(with D.B. Papadimitriou, A.M. Shaikh, C.H. Dos Santos and G. Zezza) ‘Is Deficit Financed Growth Limited? Policies and Prospects in an Election Year’, Levy Institute Strategic Analysis, April (with A. Izurieta and G. Zezza) ‘Prospects and Policies for the US Economy: Why Net Exports Must Now be the Motor for US Growth’, Levy Institute Strategic Analysis, August ‘Weaving Cloth from Graziani’s Thread: Endogenous Money in a Simple (but Complete) Keynesian Model’, in R. Arena and N. Salvadori (eds), Money, Credit and the Role of the State: Essays in Honour of Augusto Graziani (Aldershot: Ashgate), pp. 127–35

2005 ‘Commentary to: Anne-Marie Sandler, Réponses institutionnelles aux trans gressions: le cas de Masud Khan’, L’Année Psychanalytique Internationale, pp. 15–31 ‘Imbalances Looking for a Policy’, Levy Institute Policy Note 2005/4 ‘Some Unpleasant American Arithmetic’, Levy Institute Policy Note 2005/5 (with A. Izurieta) ‘The US Economy: Weaknesses of the “Strong” Recovery’, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, 57(229): 131–9 (with D.B. Papadimitriou, C.H. Dos Santos and G. Zezza) ‘The United States and Her Creditors: Can the Symbiosis Last?’, Levy Institute Strategic Analysis, September (with M. Lavoie) ‘Comprehensive Accounting in Simple Open Economy Macroeconomics with Endogenous Sterilization or Flexible Exchange Rates’, Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 28(2) (Winter): 241–76

2006 (with G. Zezza) ‘Debt and Lending: A Cri de Coeur’, Levy Institute Policy Note 2006/4 (with M. Lavoie) ‘Features of a Realistic Banking System within a Post-Keynesian Stock-flow Consistent Model’, in M. Setterfield (ed.), Complexity, Endogenous Money and Macroeconomic Theory: Essays in Honour of Basil J. Moore (Cheltenham: Edward Elgar), pp. 251–68

2007 (with M. Lavoie) : An Integrated Approach to Credit, Money, Income, Production and Wealth (Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan) (with M. Lavoie) ‘A Simple Model of Three Economies with Two Currencies: The Eurozone and the USA’, Cambridge Journal of Economics, 31(1), pp. 1–23 (with D.B. Papadimitriou, G. Hannsgen and G. Zezza) ‘The US Economy is There a Way Out of the Woods?’, Levy Institute Strategic Analysis, November (with D.B. Papadimitriou and G. Zezza) ‘The US Economy: What’s Next?’, Levy Institute Strategic Analysis, April

2008 (with D.B. Papadimitriou and G. Zezza) ‘Prospects for the United States and the World: A Crisis That Conventional Remedies Cannot Resolve’, Levy Institute Strategic Analysis, December Wynne Godley – A Bibliography 383

2009 ‘The Developing Recession in the United States’, PSL Quarterly Review, 62 (248–51): 87–92 (with A. Izurieta) ‘The US Economy: Weaknesses of the ‘Strong’ Recovery’, PSL Quarterly Review, 62(248–51): 97–105

Working papers

(with C. Taylor) ‘Public Spending and Private Demand’, Economics Reprint No. 339, 1971 (with T.F. Cripps) ‘Local Government Finance and its Reform: A Critique of the Layfield Committee’s Report’, Department of Applied Economics, 1976 (with T.F. Cripps) ‘The Planning of Telecommunications in the United Kingdom’, 1978 (with K.J. Coutts) ‘Introduction to a Synthesis of Macroeconomic Theory Based on Tobin’s Nobel Lecture’, Department of Applied Economics, Working paper, 1984 (with K.J. Coutts) ‘Outline for a Reconstructed Basis for Macroeconomic Theory’, Department of Applied Economics, Working paper, 1984 (with N.M. Christodoulakis) ‘A Dynamic Model for the Analysis of Trade Policy Options’, Dept. of Applied Economics, University of Cambridge, 1986 (with K.J. Coutts, Robert Rowthorn and Terry S. Ward) ‘The British Economy: Recent History and Medium Term Prospects’, 1986 (with K.J. Coutts; Juan Carlos Moreno-Brid) ‘Industrial Pricing in UK Manufacturing Industry Under Conditions of “Stagflation”’, 1987 (with M. Anyadike-Danes and K.J. Coutts) ‘IS-LM and Real Stock Flow Models: A Prelude to Applied Macroeconomic Modelling’, 1987 (with G. Zezza) ‘A Simple Real Stock Flow Model Illustrated with the Danish Economy’, Department of Applied Economics, Working paper, 1989 ‘Time, Increasing Returns and Institutions in Macroeconomics’, Cambridge Working Papers in Economics, 9023, 1990 ‘A Macro View of the Danish economy’, Department of Applied Economics, Working paper, April 1991 ‘Britain and the Danger of EMU’, Department of Applied Economics, Working paper, April 1991 ‘US Foreign Trade, the Budget Deficit and Strategic Policy Problems: A Background Brief’, Levy Institute Working Paper, no. 138, 1995 ‘A Simple Model of the Whole World with Free Trade, Free Capital Movements, and Floating Exchange Rates’, Unpublished manuscript, Levy Institute, 1996 ‘Money, Finance and National Income Determination: An Integrated Approach’, Levy Institute Working Paper, no. 167, June 1996 ‘Macroeconomics Without Equilibrium or Disequilibrium’, Levy Institute Working Paper, no. 205, August 1997 (with B. Martin) ‘America and the World Economy’, Research Group Occasional Paper no. 3, Phillips & Drew, December 1998 (with A. Shaikh) ‘An Important Inconsistency at the Heart of the Standard Macroeconomic Model’, Levy Institute Working Paper, no. 326, May 1998 ‘Open Economy Macroeconomics Using Models of Closed Systems’, Levy Institute Working Paper, no. 281, August 1999 384 Wynne Godley – A Bibliography

(with M. Lavoie) ‘Kaleckian Models of Growth in a Stock-Flow Monetary Framework: A Neo-Kaldorian Model’, Levy Institute Working Paper, no. 302, June 2000 (with A. Izurieta) ‘Strategic Prospects for the US Economy: A New Dilemma’, Centre for Financial Analysis and Policy, November 2002 (with A. Izurieta) ‘Balances, Imbalances and Fiscal Targets: A New Cambridge View’, Cambridge Endowment for Research in Finance, University of Cambridge, 2003 (with M. Lavoie) ‘Two-country Stock-flow-consistent Macroeconomics Using a Closed Model Within a Dollar Exchange Regime’, Centre for Financial Analysis and Policy, Working paper no. 10, November, 2003 (with M. Lavoie) ‘Features of a Realistic Banking System Within a Post-Keynesian Stock-Flow Consistent Model’, Centre for Financial Analysis and Policy, Working paper no. 12, 2004 (with M. Lavoie) ‘Simple Open Economy Macro with Comprehensive Accounting a Radical Alternative to the Mundell–Fleming Model’, Centre for Financial Analysis and Policy, Working paper no.15, April 2004 ‘Towards a Reconstruction of Macroeconomics Using a Stock Flow Consistent (SFC) Model’, Centre for Financial Analysis and Policy, Working paper no. 16, May 2004 (with M. Lavoie) ‘Simple Open Economy Macro with Comprehensive Accounting: A Two-country Model’, Cambridge Endowment for Research in Finance Working paper no. 20, February 2005 (with M. Lavoie) ‘Prolegomena to Realistic Monetary Macroeconomics: A Theory of Intelligible Sequences’, Levy Institute Working Paper, no. 441, February 2006

Memoranda

‘Measurement, Forecasting and Control of Public Expenditure’, memorandum to Commons Expenditure Committee, 1970/71 (3rd Report), 1970 ‘Implied Price Relationships, Cmnd. 4234, Cmnd. 4578 and the National Income and Expenditure Account’, memorandum to Commons Expenditure Committee, 1970/71, 1971 ‘Measurement, Forecasting and Control of Public Expenditure’, memorandum to the Select Committee on Expenditure of the House of Commons (3rd Report), 1971 ‘Note on the Treasury Memorandum – Public Expenditure and Demand in Real Resources, 1971–1972’ (7th Report), 1971 (with B. Stafford) ‘Notes on Accounting Conventions with Particular Reference to the Treatment of Receipts’, submitted to Commons Expenditure Committee, 1970/71 (3rd Report), 1971 ‘Notes on Public Expenditure to 1976–77 (Cmnd. 5178)’, memorandum to Commons Expenditure Committee, 1972/73, 1972 ‘Public Expenditure and Demand on Real Resources’, memorandum to the Select Committee on Expenditure of the House of Commons (7th Report), 1972 ‘Public Expenditure and Economic Management’, memorandum to the Select Committee on Expenditure of the House of Commons (7th Report), 1972 Wynne Godley – A Bibliography 385

‘The Need for Further Information About Public Expenditure and What It Buys’, memorandum to Expenditure Committee, 1971/1972 (8th Report), 1972 ‘The Supply and Disposition of Real Resources’, note submitted to Commons Expenditure Committee, 1972/73 (11th Report), 1972 ‘The Measurement and Control of Public Expenditure’, memorandum to Expenditure Committee, November 1973 ‘Public Expenditure and Inflation’, memorandum to Expenditure Committee, (9th Report), Session 1974, HMSO, 1974 (with T.F. Cripps and M.J. Fetherston) ‘Public Expenditure and the Management of the Economy’, memorandum to Expenditure Committee, (9th Report), Session 1974, HMSO, 1974 ‘Reflections on the Control of Local Government Expenditure and Its Finance’, Evidence submitted to the Layfield Committee, January, 1975 ‘Reflections on the Control of Local Government Expenditure and Its Financing: Evidence Given to the Committee of Inquiry Into Local Government Finance’, Department of Applied Economics, University of Cambridge, 1975 (with M. FitzGerald Scott) ‘The Arguments For and Against Protectionism’, Papers presented to the Panel of Academic Consultants, no. 10, 1984 ‘Success in International Trade as the Key to Sustained Growth’, London, TSB Group, 1993 ‘The Panel of Independent Forecasters February 1993 Report (Submission by W. Godley)’, London, HM Treasury, 1993 ‘The Panel of Independent Forecasters July 1993 Report (Submission by W. Godley)’, London, HM Treasury, 1993 ‘The Panel of Independent Forecasters October 1993 Report (Submission by W. Godley)’, London, HM Treasury, 1993 ‘The Sensibility of Contemporary Institutions’, Sermon before the University, Kings College Chapel, 31 May 1987, 1987

Articles in magazines and newspapers, letters to newspapers

‘Economic Disaster in Slow Motion’, The Observer, 27 August 1989 ‘Exposed: Lawson’s Bogus Billions’, The Observer, 9 April 1989 ‘Monetary Myths and Miracles’, The Observer, 3 September 1989 ‘On Track for a Major Recession’, The Observer, 15 October 1989 ‘The Mirage of Lawson’s Supply-Side Miracle’, The Observer, 2 April 1989 ‘Why The Figures Tell Another Story’, The Observer, 5 July 1989 (with K.J. Coutts and G. Zezza) ‘Is Britain in Credit with the Rest of the World?’, , 26 January 1990 ‘Recession Deep, Inflation High’, The Observer, 19 August 1990 ‘Where Macroeconomics Went Wrong (A Review of ‘A Market Theory of Money’ by J.R. Hicks)’, Times Literary Supplement, 18–24 May 1990 ‘A Long View’, New Statesman and Society, 28 June 1991, pp. 18–19 ‘An Old Limousine’, New Statesman and Society, 11 January 1991, pp. 18–21 ‘Bottoms Out?’, New Statesman and Society, 17 May 1991, pp. 22–3 ‘Giving Up’, New Statesman and Society, 29 March 1991, pp. 16–17 ‘New Consensus – Same Old Recession’, The Observer, 12 May 1991 386 Wynne Godley – A Bibliography

‘Not a Dirty Word’, New Statesman and Society, 8 February 1991, pp. 18–20 ‘Out of the Cul-de-Sac’, New Statesman and Society, 18 January 1991, pp. 18–20 ‘Terminal Decay: There is Virtually Nothing That the Chancellor Can Do to Avert the Slump’, New Statesman and Society, 15 March 1991, pp. 11–14 ‘A Severe Hangover’, New Statesman and Society, 10 April 1992, pp. 26–7 ‘Escape from the Infinite Recession’, New Statesman and Society, 20 March 1992, pp. 30–1 (with K.J. Coutts, J. Michie and R. Rowthorn) ‘Hands-off Economics Equals Stagnation’, The Observer, 19 April 1992 ‘Maastricht and All That’, London Review of Books, 8 October, 1992 ‘No Cause for Optimism’, New Statesman and Society, 17 July 1992, pp. 18–19 (with R. Rowthorn and K.J. Coutts) ‘The Route Out of Recession’, The Observer, 5 January 1992 ‘Derailed’, London Review of Books, August 1993 ‘If in a Year’s Time a Chancellor’, London Review of Books, April 1993 ‘Letting Things Rip (review of T. Congdon, Reflections on Monetarism)’, London Review of Books, January 1993 ‘Curried EMU: The Meal that Fails to Nourish’, The Observer, 31 August 1997 ‘The US Economy: An Impossible Balancing Act’, Financial Times, 19 February 1999 ‘Bush Should Triple His Tax Cuts’, Financial Times, 22 January 2001, p. 15 ‘Recession, USA’, The Guardian, 23 October 2001 ‘Saving Masud Khan’, London Review of Books, 23(4), 22 February 2001, pp. 3–7 (with B. Martin) ‘America’s Years of Living Dangerously’, The Observer, 1 September 2002 ‘Huge Fiscal Expansion Shortened U.S. Recession’, Financial Times, Letters to the editor, 8 August 2002 ‘Kick-start Strategy Fails to Fire Spluttering US Economic Motor’, The Guardian, 21 January 2002 ‘The New Interest-rate Orthodoxy is as Flawed as the Old One’, The Guardian, 11 November 2002 ‘Forecasting is Defunct as a Means of Shaping Monetary Policy’, The Guardian, 11 October 2004 (with L.R. Wray) ‘Obscure Argument Not Easy to Follow’, Financial Times, Letters to the editor, 17 February 2006 ‘Pensions £150bn Black Hole May Not be so Deep’, Financial Times, Letters to the editor, 11 January 2006 (with L.R. Wray) ‘The Balance of Trade, not Payments, is True Measure of a Deficit’s Effects’, Financial Times, Letters to the editor, 15 February 2006 ‘US Economy and the Deficit Predicament’, Financial Times, Letters to the editor, 30 May 2006 ‘New Balance of Payments Figures May Transform Strategic Outlook’, Financial Times, Letters to the editor, 28 December 2007 (with G. Gudgin, B. Martin and B. Moore) ‘Bank Downplayed the Downside Risk’, Financial Times, Letters to the editor, 20 November 2008 ‘Have Oxford Trio Built New Theory?’, Financial Times, Letters to the editor, 1 May 2008 ‘Tackle Inflation with a Sensible Incomes Policy’, Financial Times, Letters to the editor, 20 June 2008 Wynne Godley – A Bibliography 387

‘Immediate Cuts to Budget Deficit Will Worsen Recession’, Financial Times, Letters to the editor, 9 October 2009 ‘An Expansionary Route to Cut Deficit’, Financial Times, Letters to the editor, 20 April 2010 Index

active financial markets 173–96 bathtub theorem 104 Albin, Peter 70 behavioral economics 73 alternative income definitions 112 Belgium Andrews, P.W.S. 13, 147 economic growth 355 animal spirits 32, 276, 278 financial balances 359–60, 364, asset price deflation 59 369–70 assets 110, 157 financial projections 362–3 financial 47, 110, 129–30 Benn, Tony 19 foreign 199, 230 Berlin, Isaiah 13 net acquisition 47, 129–30, 135, Berrill, Kenneth 19 306, 318 Bispham, J.A. 21, 31 non-financial 110–11 black holes 2, 302, 304 Austria Black, William K. 72 economic growth 355 Bond, Patrick 66 financial balances 359–60, 364, Bretton Woods system 61, 341 369–70 Brittan, Samuel 14 financial projections 362–3 Broder, David 52 bubble detection 67–8 Baker, Dean 67 budget constraint balance of payments government sector 309 deficit 48, 332 household sector 162 and GDP 313 budget surplus 51–5 balance sheet matrix 140 Bush Sr, George 55 debt deflation 242–4 business cycle 128, 240 Balogh, Thomas 15 business savings 128, 131, 133, 134 banking crises 83, 86, 89, 91, 97, 106–8, 119 Cairncross, Alex 14, 15–16, 19, 30 banks Cambridge Policy Group 19, 20, 22, behavior of 142–6, 164 24, 25, 26 capital adequacy ratio 248 see also New Cambridge Model central see central banks Cameron, Sue 32 credit rationing capital account balance 256 domestic banks 220–2 capital adequacy ratio 248 nonresident banks 222–5 capital excess 181–6 debt deflation 248, 261–2 capital gains 82 deposits 146, 156, 163, 177, 202 and spending 325 financing by 286–8 capital market inflation 174, 192 loans 144, 146, 160, 163, 177 cash flows 147–50 investment funding 175 central banks monetary union 206–9 debt deflation 248, 261 profits 176 independence 267–8, 273 Barber boom 17 monetary policy 279 Barro, Robert 270 Chen, Ping 70

388 Index 389

Chicago School 64 distress selling 237, 238 China, current account balance 351 models of 237–48 Chow test 100 banks 248, 261–2 circuit approach see monetary circuit central bank 248, 261 theory firms 247, 257–9 Clinton Administration 5, 42, 332 government 247–8, 260–1 budget surplus 51–5, 58 households 241, 247, 259–60 cointegration 100 recurrence of 57–8 Community Reinvestment Act 41 transactions matrix 245–6 company financial surplus 85 unstable 239 complete overcapitalization 184 debt trap 48 Congressional Budget Office deflation 59 (CBO) 56, 324 deposit interest 177 constant-price equivalents 110 deposits see banks, deposits consumer borrowing 41–2, 58–9 disposable income 81, 88, 102, consumption 202 202–3 household sector 276 inflation tax adjustment 101, and investment shocks 251 104 permanent zero interest rate 288 market sector wealth ratio 83, temporary high interest rate 294 94 consumption goods 157, 159–61 personal 306 control fraud 72 vs. financial wealth 90 Coutts, Ken 139, 140, 150 distress selling 237, 238 Cramp, A.B. 138 dollar leveraging 335, 337–8 credit rationing 199 Dow, Sheila 44 banks Dymski, Gary 71–2 domestic 220–2 Dynamic Stochastic General nonresident 222–5 Equilibrium (DGSE) global 218–20 models 303 permanent zero interest rate 287 temporary high interest rate 293 Earnings Before Interest Taxes, Cripps, Francis 2, 3, 17, 138, 141 Depreciation and Amortization current account balances 256 (EBITDA) 149 euro zone 350–1 Eatwell, John 138 monetary union 210–11 economic growth 50–1 current account deficits permanent zero interest rate 281 euro zone 351 sustainability 55–7 USA 327 temporary high interest rate 289 CUSUM test 100 economic policy dynamic Cyprus multipliers 311–17 economic growth 355 Economic Section of Treasury financial balances 359–60, 364, 13–16 369–70 Eichner, Alfred 145, 152 financial projections 362–3 employment rate 254, 255 end-of-period equilibrium 303 D’Arista, Jane 74 endogenous money 39 Davidson, Paul 74 entrepreneurial profits 149 debt deflation 57, 235–65 equity issuance 186–92 balance sheet matrix 242–4 error correction model 97–8, 112 390 Index euro zone 197 financial cycle financial balances 355–6, 359–60, length of 159 364, 369–70 money holdings 161 failure to improve current financial instability 69–71 account 369 financial surplus 79, 100, 110 as per cent of GDP 367, 372 government and overseas 84 significant rebalancing 370 household and company 85 macroeconomic market sector 84 development 355–6 mean/variance equality tests 88 predicted GDP growth 363 private 85, 88–9 see also individual countries financial surplus ratio 81, 86–7 European Exchange Rate financial uncertainty 107–8 Mechanism 26 financial wealth 81–2 European Stability and Growth Pact end-period 80 (SGP) 349, 352 market sector 90, 92 European Stability Programmes private sector 93 349–76 UK vs US 91 assumptions and vs accumulated flows 90 implications 356–67 vs income ratio 89–92 projections 362–3 see also wealth ratio reducing current account financialization 186 balances 350–1 Finland reducing public deficits 352 economic growth 355 reducing unemployment 352 financial balances 359–60, 364, European System of Accounts 78 369–70 Evans, Robert 27, 31 financial projections 362–3 excess capital 181–6 firms sector exchange rate, floating 249–53, debt 252 254 debt deflation 247, 257–9 Exchange Rate Mechanism 26–7 debt ratio expenditure permanent zero interest market sector 99 rate 283, 284 NCS function 98–103 temporary high interest rate private sector 79 290 vs. income 106 distributed dividends 206 equities demand 205 Fannie Mae 67 financial accumulation 205 FDI 89, 93, 110 fixed investment 204–5 financial assets 47, 110, 129–30 flow of funds 205–6 financial autarky 199, 212, 213–18, investment 275–6 228, 229 monetary union 204–6 GDP in 214, 217, 229 new equities issues 205 financial balances 324 profits 178–81 current account see current account rate of return on equities 205 balances saving 192 euro area 355–6, 359–60, 364, wages 206 369–70 fiscal debt ratio UK 83–9 permanent zero interest rate 285 financial bubbles, detection of 67–8 temporary high interest rate 291 Index 391 fiscal debt targeting rule 269, 273, GDP 79, 131, 305, 306 280, 281 and balance of payments 313 fiscal deficit targeting rule 268–9, and credit rationing 273–4 domestic banks 222 fiscal drag 51, 58 global 219–20 fiscal policy 198 nonresident banks 224 dynamic multipliers 311–17 euro zone 363, 367, 372 fiscal debt targeting rule 273–4 falling equity prices 218 fiscal deficit targeting rule 273 financial autarky 214, 217 Godley proposal 274 and government consolidated government 272–5 debt 357 independent central bank 273 and government expenditure Levy Institute stock-flow finance by borrowing 313 model 300–20 finance by government monetary policy shocks 279–83 receipts 313 neutral 266–99 finance by printing money 315 Ricardian equivalence 274 and household debt 356 Treasury view 274–5 and interest rate increase 316 floating exchange rate 249–53, and investment shocks 250 254 and liabilities of non-financial flow equilibrium 303 corporations 357 flow of funds 174, 205–6 and public sector borrowing flow-of-funds matrix 143, 150 requirement 314 forced saving 179 with treasure bills rationing 227 foreign assets 199 with variable interest rates 229 stabilizing role 230 vs. private sector balance 41, 133 foreign direct investment see FDI General Theory 302 foreign interest rates 309 Germany foreign loans 199, 230 current account balance 351 foreign trade 210–11 debt break rule 352 France economic growth 355 economic growth 355 financial balances 359–60, 364, financial balances 359–60, 364, 369–70 369–70 financial projections 362–3 financial projections 362–3 GDP growth 367, 372 government bond yields 358 government bond yields 358 government debt 357 government debt 357 liabilities of non-financial liabilities of non-financial corporations 357 corporations 357 monetary circuit theory 143 private household debt 356 private household debt 356 Glass–Steagall Act 71 Freddie Mac 67 global imbalances 334–40 ‘freshwater’ economists 64 Godley, Wynne 1–5, 12, 73, 107, Friedman, Milton 25 155, 321 monetary helicopter drop 145 academic credentials 20–4 at Economic Section 13–16 Galbraith, Jamie 55 fiscal policy neutrality 266–99 Galbraith, John Kenneth 73 Goldilocks economy 47–57 The New Industrial State 71 methodological approach 42–7 392 Index

Godley, Wynne – continued government debt 357 Monetary Economics 12, 28, 138, 140 liabilities of non-financial ‘Money and Credit in a corporations 357 Keynsian Model of Income private household debt 356 Determination’ 137 Greenspan, Alan 50, 71 New Cambridge School 2–3, 6, gross domestic product see GDP 16–20 seven unsustainable Hahn, Frank H. 24 processes 321–48 Hall, Robert 13, 14, 17, 29, 32, 147 ‘The US Economy: A Changing Hamilton, Alexander 53 Strategic Predicament’ 327 Harcourt, Geoff 137–8 three balances approach 39–42 Healey, Denis 20 Godley–Cripps hypothesis 128–31, Hicks, John 151 135 Higgins, C.I. 31 Goldilocks economy 38, 41, 324–5 historical data 78–9 budget surplus 51–5 Hitch, C.J. 29 Godley’s analysis of 47–57 house price index 99 medium-term prospects 49–50 house prices 308, 327–8 outlook 48–9 variation in 106 sustainability 55–7 household capital formation 131, three balances 39–42, 47–8 134 Goodhart, Charles 38 household debt 356 Gore, Al 51 deflation 241, 247, 259–60 government 209–10 household sector bond yields 358 behavior 164–5 budget constraint 309 bonds demand 203 financial surplus 84 budget constraint 162 fiscal policy see fiscal policy capital formation 126 government debt 252 capital gains 204 deflation 247–8, 260–1 cash demand 203 and GDP 357 consumption 276 Government Economic Service 14 equities demand 203 government expenditure financial surplus 85 and GDP monetary union 202–4 finance by borrowing 313 retained earnings 134, 179 finance by government saving 128, 129, 131, 133, 134, 192 receipts 315 taxes 203 finance by printing money 315 Housing Revenue Account 109 multipliers 312–17 housing wealth ratio 113 Graziani, Augusto 138 monetary circuit theory 154–72 income 96 Great Recession 5, 69, 73, 300, 334, disposable see disposable income 343 real sector 183 Greece vs expenditure 106 economic growth 355 income ratio, vs financial financial balances 359–60, 364, wealth 89–92 369–70 inflation tax adjustment 82, 89, 96, financial projections 362–3 101 government bond yields 358 disposable income 101, 104 Index 393 initial finance 143 Kahn, Richard 18, 30 institutional form 71–2 ‘Challenging the “Elegant and integration tests 111 Striking” Paradoxes of the New interest rates 209, 308 School’ 18 deposits 177 Kaldor, Nicholas 2, 15, 19, 29, 44, foreign 309 138, 151 and GDP 316 Kalecki equation 39–40 permanent zero 279, 280–2, 283–8 classical case 40 quasi-interest rates 332, 339 Kalecki–Steindl profit reflux temporary high 282–3, 289–94 equation 180, 193 variable 226–30 Keynes, John Maynard 44, 65, 68, 344 International Monetary Fund General Theory 302 (IMF) 341 paradox of thrift 178 international risk sharing 8, 198 Keynesian cross model 23 intra-zone credit 200, 215 Keynesianism 22, 141, 165 Inventory Valuation Adjustment debt deflation 237–8 (IVA) 149 Krugman, Paul 63–4, 72 investment firms sector 275–6 labor mobility 198 fixed 204–5 Lavoie, Marc 1, 3, 7, 38, 170, 266 forced saving 179 Monetary Economics 12, 28, 138 foreign see FDI lender’s risk 277 household 179 lending 144, 146, 160, 163, 177 investment shocks Levy, David A. 51 floating exchange rate 249–53 Levy Institute 2–4, 68 within monetary union 253–5 stock-flow model 300–20 Ireland consistency of 301–7 economic growth 355 description of 307–11 financial balances 359–60, 364, economic policy dynamic 369–70 multipliers 311–17 financial projections 362–3 flow matrix 305 government bond yields 358 Levy, Jerome 40 government debt 357 liabilities 110 Italy liquidity 145, 156–9, 163–4, 167, economic growth 355 168, 170, 174, 177, 185, 238 financial balances 359–60, 364, creation of 237–8 369–70 Llewellyn, John 32 financial projections 362–3 long-run tendencies 79–93, 105 government bond yields 358 financial balances 83–9 government debt 357 financial wealth to income liabilities of non-financial ratio 89–93 corporations 357 testing 82–93 monetary circuit theory 143 Lucas impossibility theorem 70 private household debt 356 Lucas, Robert 70 Luxemburg Jackson, Andrew 53 economic growth 355 Japan, current account balance 351 financial balances 359–60, 364, Jay, Peter 24 369–70 Johansen method 96, 97 financial projections 362–3 394 Index

Maastricht Treaty 4, 268 consistency in 301–7 McCarthy, George 140, 150 description of 307–11 Major, John 26 economic policy dynamic Maloney, John 19 multipliers 311–17 Malta monetary circuit theory 165–8 economic growth 355 monetary union 200–12 financial balances 359–60, 364, New Cambridge model see New 369–70 Cambridge model financial projections 362–3 Perpetual Inventory Model Malthus, Thomas Robert 65 (PIM) 110–11 marginal overcapitalization 184 steady state 295–7 market sector 78 Warwick Macroeconomic Modelling disposable income ratio 83, 94 Bureau 25 expenditure deflator 99 monetarism 26, 141, 142–6 financial surplus 84, 88 defence of 23 financial wealth vs disposable publicity against 24–6 income 90, 92, 94 monetary circuit theory 39, 138, regression variables 111 143, 154–72 total expenditure 99 post-Keynesian version 165 volatility 87–8 profit paradox 155, 157–8, 169 Marx, Karl, Scheme of Simple simplest circuit 156–9 Reproduction 157–8 simplest consistent circuit 159–64 Marxist analysis 66 consumption goods only 159–61 Meade, James 13–14 stock-flow accounting 161–4 mean lag theorem 104, 115–16 two-sector model 165–8 mean/variance equality tests 88 velocity of circulation 160–1 Messori, Marcello 170 monetary policy of central Minsky crisis 4, 36 banks 279 Minsky, Hyman 3, 36, 37, 44, 73, monetary profit theory 155 323–4, 344 monetary shocks 70, 279–83 financial Keynesian appproach 37 permanent zero interest rate 279, non-linear financial dynamics 280–2, 283–8 69–71 temporary high interest rate MIT school 64 282–3, 289–94 models 20–4 monetary theory of production debt deflation 237–48 154–72 banks 248, 261–2 monetary union 197–234 central bank 248, 261 adjustment mechanisms 212–30 firms 247, 257–9 credit rationing by domestic government 247–8, 260–1 banks 220–2 households 241, 247, 259–60 credit rationing by resident Dynamic Stochastic General banks 222–5 Equilibrium 303 global credit rationing 218–20 error correction 97–8, 112 no credit rationing 199, 212, fiscal policy neutrality 271–9 213–18 Keynesian cross model 23 Treasury bills rationing 225–6 Levy Institute model 301–7 variable interest rate 226–30 Levy Institute stock-flow balance sheet 201 model 300–20 banking sector 206–9 Index 395

firms sector 204–6 historical dataset 78–9 government 209–12 long-run tendencies 79–93 household sector 202–4 private wealth target 93–8 intra-zone credit 200, 215 twin deficit hypothesis 125–6, investment shocks 253–5 128–31, 133 negative shocks 216 new consensus macroeconomics 316 stabilization effects 212–30 Newbery, D.M.G. 30 stock-flow consistency model nominal wage cuts 237–8 200–12 non-financial assets 110–11 money demand 46 non-linear financial dynamics 69–71 money flow 177 non-nested tests 112 money manager capitalism 36 money supply 43–5, 46–7 overcapitalization 173–96 complete 184 National Income and Product Accounts marginal 184 (NIPA) 68, 131, 149–50 speculative 187 NCS see New Cambridge School overseas financial surplus 84 negative shocks 216 Oxford Economists’ Research Neild, Robert 15, 16, 18, 24 Group 147 Nell, Edward 152 neoclassical view 173, 183 Paine, Thomas 53 net acquisition of financial assets Pasinetti, Luigi 19 (NAFA) 47, 129–30, 135, 318 Paulson, John 37 private sector 306 perfect competition 176 Netherlands perfect foresight assumption 303, 318 economic growth 355 Perpetual Inventory Model financial balances 359–60, 364, (PIM) 110–11 369–70 personal disposable income 306 financial projections 362–3 Pesaran, Hashem 28 neutrality of fiscal policy 266–99 phase transitions 70 central bank monetary policy 279 Phillips–Perron test statistic 118 fiscal debt targeting rule 269, 273 political economy 14 fiscal deficit targeting rule 268–9, Ponzi schemes 69, 70 273 Portugal Godley proposal 269, 274 economic growth 355 household consumption 276 financial balances 359–60, 364, independent central bank 267–8, 369–70 273 financial projections 362–3 investment of firms 275–6 government bond yields 358 monetary policy shock 279–83 government debt 357 private bank financing 276–8 liabilities of non-financial Ricardian equivalence 269–71, corporations 357 274–5 private household debt 356 stock-flow consistent model 271–9 Posner, 18, 30 Treasury view 271 ‘Challenging the “Elegant and New Cambridge model 2–3, 6, Striking” Paradoxes of the New 16–20, 21, 31, 76–124, 139 School’ 18 comparisons with 103–6 precautionary saving 107–8 expenditure function 98–103 predator state 55 396 Index price flexibility 197 Ricardian equivalence 269–71, 274 price inflation 253, 257 Ricardian Vice 65 price setting 147–8 Ricardo, David 65, 270 price stability 80 risk premiums 278 private bank financing 276–8 Robertson, D.H. 44 private disposable income 79 Robinson, Joan V. 30, 125, 266 private expenditure price deflator 80 Rochon, Louis-Philip 155 private sector Rogers, Colin 137 balance 42, 129, 354 Rosser Jr, Barkley 70 vs GDP 41, 133 Roubini, Nouriel 74 deficit 56–7 Ruggles, Nancy and Richard 6, 126 definition of 78 sectoral savings-investment expenditure 79 hypothesis 131–2 net acquisition of financial Rymes, Tom 137 assets 306 surplus 40 ‘saltwater’ economists 64 private wealth target 93–8 savings production period 159 business 128, 131, 133, 134 profit paradox 155, 157–8, 169 forced 179 profits 147–50, 157 household 128, 129, 131, 133, bank 176 134 entrepreneurial 149 precautionary 107–8 firms sector 178–81 Say’s law 165 public debt ratio Seccareccia, Mario 140 permanent zero interest rate 286 sectoral balance sheets 191, 192 temporary high interest rate 292 sectoral deficits 182 public sector sectoral financial balances 352–4 balances 353 sustainability 354–5 borrowing requirement 309 see also three balances approach and GDP 314 sectoral savings-investment debt 69, 210 hypothesis 131–2 euro zone 352 seven unsustainable processes 321–48 pure credit economy 194 Shaikh, Anwar 140, 170 shareholder value 186 Quandt likelihood ratio (QLR) shocks see investment shocks; test 118 monetary shocks quantitative easing 345 short run 127 quasi-interest rates 332, 339 Six Wise Men 27 Skott, Peter 137 radical theory 66–7 Slovakia rational expectations economic growth 355 assumption 303 financial balances 359–60, 364, real estate prices 59–60 369–70 real sector income 183 financial projections 362–3 recession 55 Slovenia Rees-Mogg, William 25 economic growth 355 retained earnings 134, 179 financial balances 359–60, 364, revaluation matrix 194 369–70 revolving fund 170 financial projections 362–3 Index 397 small open economies 235–65 three balances approach 39–42, Smithers, Andrew 4 47–8, 126–8 Smithin, John 145 thrift paradox 178 social accounting matrix 162, 166 Tobin, James 44, 45, 141, 143, Solow, Robert 26 321 Spain Asset Accumulation and Economic current account balance 351 Activity 321 economic growth 355 Tobin’s q ratio 253, 277 financial balances 359–60, 364, trade deficit 40 369–70 transactions flow matrix 140, 174, financial projections 362–3 177–8, 189, 231–2 government bond yields 358 debt deflation 245–6 government debt 357 Treasury bills 210 liabilities of non-financial rationing 225–6, 227 corporations 357 Treasury view private household debt 356 government fiscal policy speculative overcapitalization 187 274–5 Sraffa, Piero 266 neutrality of fiscal policy 271 stationarity tests 109–10 permanent zero interest rate 280, financial surplus 85, 86 281 wealth ratio 92, 95 temporary high interest rate steady state 103–6, 114–15, 279 282 model 295–7 twin deficit hypothesis 125–6, wealth ratio 104 128–31, 133, 342 Stiglitz, Joseph 74 two-sector model 165–8 stock equilibrium 303 stock market prices 308 UK stock-flow accounting 161–4 current account balance 351 stock-flow consistency 45, 159–64 financial balances 83–9 active financial markets 173–96 government and overseas constraints 301 financial surplus 84, 88 consumption goods 159–61 household and company debt deflation 235–65 financial surplus 85, 88 equity issuance 186–92 market sector financial excess capital 181–6 surplus 84, 88 firms sector profits 178–81 financial wealth models see models vs income 89–92 monetary circuits 154–72 vs USA 91 simple ’classical’ system 174–8 post-war economics 12–35 stock-flow accounting 161–4 private expenditure function Stone, Richard 30 76–124 329 private wealth target 93–8 Summers, Lawrence 70 UK Office for National Statistics 78 surplus 54 unemployment 342 euro zone 352 Taleb, Nassim 74 unit costs 148–9 tariff hopping 93 unit root tests 82–3, 85, 86 Taylor, Lance 1, 26 univariate stationarity tests 85–6 Thatcher, Margaret 26–7 unsustainable processes 321–48 398 Index

USA 321–48 wage bill 156 balance of payments deficit 48 wage flexibility 197 current account balance 351 wages 206 current account deficit 327 Wallis, Kenneth 25 dollar leveraging 335, 337–8 Walras’ law 43–4, 128 dollar reserve currency status 341 Warwick Macroeconomic Modelling external balance sheet 339 Bureau 25 external imbalances 330–4 Wass, Douglas 19 financial wealth, vs. UK 91 wealth effects 325 house prices 327–8 wealth ratio 81, 89–93, 95–6 medium-term economic stationarity tests 92, 95 prospects 49–50 steady state properties 104 net international investment 336 wealth target 93 net investment income 335 Wolf, Martin 333 personal sector lending 328 Wood, Adrian 19 subprime mortgage crisis 329 Wray, Randall 144 twin deficits 125–6, 128–31, 133, 342 Young, Warren 137 variable interest rate 226–30 vector autoregression 97 zero interest rate 279, 280–2 Vines, David 31, 32 Zezza, Gennaro 138, 155