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Optimal Temporal Allocation of the Multi-Aquifer System in Al-Hassa Oasis, Eastern Saudi Arabia

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Optimal Temporal Allocation of the Multi-Aquifer System in Al-Hassa Oasis, Eastern Saudi Arabia OPTIMAL TEMPORAL ALLOCATION OF THE MULTI-AQUIFER SYSTEM IN AL-HASSA OASIS, EASTERN SAUDI ARABIA By AHMED MOHAMMED Al-ABDULKADER Bachelor of Science King Faisal University Al-Hassa, Saudi Arabia May, 1986 Master of Science Oklahoma State University Stillwater, Oklahoma May, 1992 Submitted to the Faculty of the Graduate College of the Oklahoma State University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY May 1996 1"~\e~·ts (qqtp [) A3'lleo OPTIMAL TEMPORAL ALLOCATION OF THE MULTI-AQUIFER SYSTEM IN AL-HASSA OASIS, EASTERN SAUDI ARABIA Dissertation Approved: Dean Of The Graduate College ii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS All the praises and thanks be to the Al-Mighty Allah, the lord of all that exists, and peace and blessings of Allah be upon his messenger Mohammed, the leader and the last of the prophets and upon his brothers prophets and messengers and upon his family, his companions, and whoever follows him with benevolence until the day of resurrection. This study could not have been completed without the blessing, grace, and guidance of the Al-Mighty Allah. My deep gratitude and sincere appreciation are extended to my major advisor Dr. Arthur Stoecker for his guidance, understanding, assistance, and encouragement in _completing this dissertation. I am. grateful for his advice, wisdom, patience, and concerns which have contributed to minimizing my frustration. Appreciation is also expressed to the members of my committee, Dr. Harry Mapp Jr., Dr. Francis Epplin, and Dr. Ronald Elliott for their suggestions, recommendations,_ and assistance which combined to appreciably improve the ~ubstance and form of this dissertation. Special thanks are also extended to King AbdulAziz City for Science and Technology (KACST) for giving me the iii opportunity to pursue my higher education in the United States and for their generous financial support. I am grateful to my advisers in the Saudi Educational Mission in the U.S. Dr. Mohammed Mutar, Dr. Ahmed Kher, and Dr. Ali Badi for their sincere supports and understanding. I am very grateful to Br. Khalifeh Al-Mulhern and Abdulaziz Al-Abdulkader of the Ministry of Agriculture and Water for their valuable assistance. I owe a debt of considerable magnitude to my respected friends at the Islamic Community of Stillwater whose emotional support and valuable encouragement made my living in the United States is possible. While nearly everyone in the community helped me at one time or another, I would like to thank Br. Abdulaziz Al-Sahal, Br. Abdulmalik Al-Salman, Br. Mohammed Al-Owayed, Br. Saeed Bakhshawin, Br. Saad Esa, Br. Urfi Obaid, Br. Ibrahim Wahem, Br. Mostafa Awad, Br. Jawad Abadi, Br. Ali Jamelly, Br. Louai Jalabi, Br. Yousif Elhindi, Br. Yousif Sherif, and Br. Abdulwahab El-Kelani. My heartfelt deep thanks are due to my beloved and blessed mother Umm Abdulrahman Al-Abdulkader whose prayer, love, and supplication brightened up my life. A special note of gratitude is due to my courageous brothers and sisters for their patience and unfailing encouragement. Appreciation is extended also to my grand mother and my aunt. Last but not least, very special gratitude is expressed iv to my wife, Umm Malek Al-Mulhem for the sacrifice, patience, and support during the period I have spent with her in my graduate study. Deep Love and appreciation are extended to my sons Malek and Nasser whose love and sacrifice made my life is meaningful and cheerful. V TABLE OF CONTENTS CHAPTER PAGE I. INTRODUCTION 1 Problem Statement. ..... 5 The Overall Objective . 14 The specific Objectives ........ 14 Research Project Organization ....... 15 II. BACKGROUND AND REVIEW OF LITERATURE, .. 16 HISTORICAL BACKGROUND. ... 16 THE KINGDOM OF SAUDI ARABIA. 16 Introduction . ........ 16 Meteorology . 1 7 Soils . 18 Agricultural Lands . 18 Hydro-Agricultural Surveys ......... 20 EASTERN SAUDI ARABIA . 21 General Features . • 21 General Geological Features and Formations . 25 Meteorology . 29 Water Resources ............ 30 Water Extraction .............. 31 Land Resources ............... 33 WATER RESOURCES IN SAUDI ARABIA .... 33 Umm-Er-Radhuma Formation .......... 39 AL-HASSA STUDY AREA . 43 Meteorology . 43 General Features . 4 3 Groundwater Resources ... 45 PREVIOUS STUDIES . 50 LITERATURE REVIEW. 50 POTENTIAL CONTRIBUTION . 57 III. PLAN OF THE STUDY • • • • 59 OPTIMAL EXTRACTION OF A NON-RENEWABLE RESOURCE 59 THE MATHEMATICAL MODEL . 62 DYNAMIC PROGRAMMING MODEL ........... 68 PARAMETRIC LINEAR PROGRAMMING MODEL ...... 69 Marketing Structure ............ 70 Objective Function . ... 76 Resource Constraints . ... 78 vi Commodity Balances ........... 80 Trade Balances ....... 81 Non-negativity Constraints ..... 81 Data Components of the Model .. 82 Commodity Balances . .. 82 Domestic Commodity Production . 82 Pumping Cost ....... 91 Estimating of Pumping Drawdown . 94 Domestic Demand ...... .. 97 Domestic and International Prices 100 Selling Activities ..... 100 Resource use . 103 Cultivated Land ... 103 Labor Force . 105 Water Requirements ..... 107 The Projected PLP Model .. 109 GROUNDWATER FLOW MODEL ...... 116 Groundwater Hydrology ... 117 Hydraulic Properties of Aquifer .. 117 The Piezometric Head .... 117 Transmissivity ......... 118 Storativity .......... 119 Finite-Difference Groundwater Model 120 !he Steady State Calibration .. 122 The Transient Calibration ... 124 Regression Analysis .. 124 IV. RESULTS OF THE STUDY ..... 126 LINEAR PROGR.AM:MING MODEL ..... 126 Results of the Base model ... 126 Surface Irrigation System (SRIS) .. 127 Validation of the Base Model .. 129 Sprinkler Irrigation System (SPIS) 131 Trickle Irrigation System (TRIS) ... 136 Base Model Solutions By Irrigation System 136 ·. Application of the Base Model .... 140 Pumping Costs . 140 Confined Aquifer VS. Unconfined Aquifer 141 The Projected PLP Model ...... 149 Results of the Projected PLP Models 149 Capital Costs ........... 150 THE FINITE-DIFFERENCE GROUNDWATER MODEL. 160 Steady State Calibration .... 167 Transient State Calibration .. 168 Regression Analysis ...... 172 DYNAMIC PROGR.AM:MING MODEL ... 174 Surface Irrigation System 176 Sprinkler Irrigation System 178 Trickle Irrigation System 180 vii Comparison of Optimal Decisions By Irrigation System . 180 · Effect of the Discount Rate, Population Growth,and Expenditures on Development Decisions ................ 182 Optimal Temporal Allocation of Irrigated Area ·. 185 VI. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS ... 190 Limitations of the Study 193 REFERENCES 195 APPENDIX 201 viii LIST OF TABLES TABLE PAGE I. ANNUAL NATIONAL WATER BALANCE IN SAUDI ARABIA, 1980-1990 3 II. IMPACT OF WATER CONSERVATION ON THE ANNUAL NATIONAL WATER BALANCE . 6 III. SOURCE AND UTILIZATION OF WATER BY SECTOR IN SAUDI ARABIAN, 1990 . 10 IV. NATIONAL WATER AND LAND RESOURCES BASED ON RESULTS OF HYDRO-AGRICULTURAL SURVEYS ... 22 V. TOTAL ANNUAL WATER EXTRACTION FROM THE VARIOUS WATER-BEARING FORMATIONS IN EASTERN SAUDI ARABIA ...... 32 VI. SUMMARY OF GROUNDWATER RESERVES IN THE SAUDI ARABIAN PRINCIPAL AQUIFERS . 36 VII. SELECTED PROPERTIES OF WELLS PENETRATING THE UMM-ER-RADHUMA FORMATION ..•..... 42 VIII. SUMMARY OF AVERAGE MONTHLY CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA IN AL-HASSA STUDY AREA, 1985-1993 ... 44 IX. A PORTION OF THE INITIAL TABLEAU, SURFACE IRRIGATION SYSTEM . 77 X. RATIO OF CROP PRODUCTION IN THE STUDY AREA TO TOTAL CROP PRODUCTION IN EASTERN SAUDI ARABIA, 1982. 84 XI. AVERAGE CROP PRODUCTION IN THE STUDY AREA AS A PERCENTAGE OF AVERAGE CROP PRODUCTION IN EASTERN SAUDI ARABIA, 1985 TO 1990. ... 86 XII .. AVERAGE QUANTITY OF CROP PRODUCTION, CROP AREA, AND CROP YIELD IN THE STUDY AREA, 1985-1990. 87 XI I I . SELECTED RESULTS OF THE CROPWAT PROGRAM . · 8 9 ix XIV. ELEMENTS OF PRODUCTION COSTS . 90 xv. AVERAGE PRICES AND MARKETING MARGINS, 1985-1990. 92 XVI. AVERAGE DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION, IMPORTS, AND EXPORTS IN SAUDI ARABIA ........... 99 XVII. AVERAGE DOMESTIC DEMAND, PRODUCTION, CROP PRICE, AND ELASTICITIES OF DEMAND AND SUPPLY . 101 XVIII. AVERAGE DOMESTIC WHOLESALE, C.I.F. IMPORT, AND F.O.B. EXPORT PRICES IN SAUDI ARABIA .. 102 XIX. AREA PLANTED TO MAJOR CROPS BY SEASON IN SAUDI ARABIA AND THE STUDY AREA 104 XX. TOTAL AGRICULTURAL LABOR FORCE IN SAUDI ARABIA AND IN THE STUDY AREA, 1982 . 106 XXI. LABOR REQUIREMENTS BY IRRIGATION SYSTEM. 108 XXII. LEACHING REQUIREMENTS AS A FRACTION OF TOTAL IRRIGATION REQUIREMENTS BY IRRIGATION SYSTEM . • . 110 XXIII. TOTAL MONTHLY WATER REQUIREMENTS FOR THE SURFACE IRRIGATION SYSTEM, FULL IRRIGATION. 111 XXIV. TOTAL MONTHLY WATER REQUIREMENTS FOR THE SPRINKLER IRRIGATION SYSTEM, FULL IRRIGATION. 112 XXV. TOTAL MONTHLY WATER REQUIREMENTS FOR THE TRICKLE IRRIGATION SYSTEM, FULL IRRIGATION. 113 XXVI. PREDICTED POPULATION GROWTH BY 15 YEAR INTREVLS, 1990-2050 . 115 XXVII. BASE MODEL PRODUCTION, TRADE, AND EQUILIBRIUM PRICES WITH THE SURFACE IRRIGATION SYSTEMS 128 XXVIII. VALIDATION OF PRODUCTION ESTIMATES IN THE STUDY AREA . 132 XXIX. VALIDATION OF CROP AREA ESTIMATES IN THE STUDY AREA . 133 XXX. VALIDATION OF ESTIMATED TRADE 134 X XXXI. VALIDATION OF ESTIMATED CROP PRICES ..... 135 XXXII. BASE MODEL PRODUCTION, TRADE, AND EQUILIBRIUM PRICES WITH THE SPRINKLER IRRIGATION SYSTEMS.137 XXXIII. BASE MODEL PRODUCTION, TRADE, AND EQUILIBRIUM PRICES WITH THE TRICKLE IRRIGATION SYSTEMS . 138 XXXIV. COMPARISON OF RESULTS BY IRRIGATION SYSTEM 139 XXXV. THE ESTIMATED PUMPING DRAWDOWNS FOR THE UMM-ER-RA.DHUMA AQUIFER, AT 1200 GPM PUMPING RATE . 14 7 XXXVI. PUMPING COST WITH THE SURFACE SYSTEM 148 XXXVII. PUMPING COST WITH THE SPRINKLER SYSTEM 148 XXXVIII. PUMPING COST WITH THE TRICKLE SYSTEM 148
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