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Copyright by Matthew J. Buehler 2013 The Dissertation Committee for Matthew J. Buehler certifies that this is the approved version of the following dissertation: The Social Base of Divide-and-Rule: Left-Islamist Opposition Alliances in North Africa’s Arab Spring Committee: Jason Brownlee, Supervisor Catherine Boone Mounira Charrad Clement Henry Ami Pedahzur Joshua Stacher The Social Base of Divide-and-Rule: Left-Islamist Opposition Alliances in North Africa’s Arab Spring by Matthew J. Buehler, B.A.; M.A. Dissertation Presented to the Faculty of the Graduate School of The University of Texas at Austin in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy The University of Texas at Austin August 2013 Dedication To my parents, Peggy and Mark Buehler Acknowledgements A number of people and institutions provided resources and guidance for me as I finished this dissertation. Without their support during my time at the University of Texas at Austin, I could not have brought this project to completion. Foremost, I’d like to thank my academic supervisor at the Department of Government, Professor Jason Brownlee, for his advice as I progressed through my doctoral training in political science. In his own research on Egypt, Jason shows the utmost passion, dedication, and meticulousness; I could not have had a better role model to emulate during my years at Texas. I will be eternally grateful. Professor Clement Henry provided exceptional mentoring during my doctoral studies, inspiring my interest in North Africa. He was always willing to share his wisdom with me, and I learned tremendously from his years of experience researching North African politics. The other dissertation committee members, Professors Catherine Boone, Mounira Charrad Ami Pedahzur, and Joshua Stacher, aided me as I completed this dissertation. With their dedication to comparative historical research, Catherine and Mounira pushed me to clarify key concepts and specify crucial causal mechanisms. Ami and Joshua gave me excellent advice on professionalization and converting the dissertation into a future book manuscript. During my doctoral study, I benefited from these scholars’ expertise in the profession of comparative politics; it made graduate school an eye-opening, priceless experience. In addition to these core committee members, several other faculty members at the Department of Government provided essential advice for this project and broader professionalization, including Zoltan Barany, Terrence Chapman, Wendy Hunter, Stephen Jessee, Tse-min Lin, Patrick McDonald, Robert Moser, Kurt Weyland. I apologize for any inadvertent omissions. Many of my doctoral student colleagues at the v Departments of Government, Sociology, and Middle Eastern Studies gave helpful feedback during intra and inter-departmental workshops. In both the United States and the Arab world, several institutions provided support for my doctoral research. The Boren Fellowship of the Institute of International Education funded both my fieldwork in Morocco and Tunisia in 2010-2011, and early Arabic language study at the University of Damascus, Syria in 2006-2007. I thank the Boren program for giving me a deep appreciation of Arab culture and the Arabic language. In Syria, I developed a group of irreplaceable friends with which to share this love. Faculty at the Department of Arabic at the University of Texas at Austin, especially Professors Mahmoud al-Batal and Tarek El-Ariss, helped refine my Arabic language training through the Foreign Area Language Study (FLAS) program. The Department of Governemnt at the University of Texas at Austin also provided financial support through its Long-Macdonald fellowship program. The American Institute of Maghrib Studies and Project for Middle East Political Science gave me essential funding for my fieldwork in Mauritania in 2012. While I conducted fieldwork in North Africa several institutions provided administrative sponsorship and research support. These included the Centre d'études maghrébines à Tunis, The Moroccan-American Commission for Education and Cultural Exchange, the Tangier American Legation Institute for Moroccan Studies, the École de Gouvernance et d'Économie de Rabat, and the University of Nouakchott. At these institutions, I would like to extend a grateful ‘thank you’ to: Dr. Laryssa Chomiak, Dr. James Miller, Mr. Gerald Loftus, Dr. Ward Vloeberghs, and Dr. Abye Tasse. Without the support of these institutions and scholars, it would have been difficult to complete my overseas research. vi Finally, many Tunisians, Moroccans, and Mauritanians supported me while I completed this project. While I traveled and researched in their countries, they demonstrated unparalleled kindness and generosity. Unfortunately, it’s difficult for me to thank them all of my North African friends within this small space, but I would like to single out a few, including Moroccans Reda Oulamine, Rachid Lazrak, Mustapha el- Khalfi, and my former journalist colleagues at Sabah newspaper – especially Ihssane Elhafidi, Aziz El Majdoub, Youssef Essaket, and Mr. Bouziani. Thank you also to the staff of Tajdid, especially Ahmed and Said who were my compatriots in the newspaper’s archives for several months. Among Tunisians and Mauritanians, I would like to thank Mohammed Bennour, Oubeid Imijine, and Zakaria ould Ahmed Salem, and Mohamed Fall ould Oumere. Also, I want to recognize several U.S. citizens, specifically Jeffrey England, Aaraon Schwoebel, and Matthew Lehrfeld, who are keen observers of North African party politics and provided advice to me as I conducted fieldwork. Finally, I would like to extend my deepest gratitude to the Buehler and Dabbagh families. My brothers, Chris, Josh, and Zach, have always enriched my life, adding humor and companionship. My wife, Elodie, encouraged and comforted me during the most challenging periods of graduate school; she has sacrificed much so that we can build a life together. Lastly I thank my parents, Peggy and Mark Buehler, to whom this dissertation is dedicated. From their parents, Peggy and Mark learned independence, determination, and work ethic; I’m glad I also inherited those values. Without them, I doubt I would have completed this dissertation. Though I’m not sure whether Peggy or Mark understand the aims or purpose of political science, I know that they appreciate seeing their son complete his studies, begin a career, and start a family: Thank you, Mom and Dad, for your loving support. vii The Social Base of Divide-and-Rule: Left-Islamist Opposition Alliances in North Africa’s Arab Spring Matthew J. Buehler, Ph.D. The University of Texas at Austin, 2013 Supervisor: Jason Brownlee Under what conditions do opposition political parties cooperate across ideological cleavages? Why do such opposition alliances collapse or endure over time? I address these questions by comparing alliances between leftist and Islamist opposition parties in Tunisia, Morocco, and Mauritania. In Tunisia, leftists have joined forces with Islamists on the national-level. In Morocco and Mauritania, such alliances have formed and endured in municipalities and labor unions but they have collapsed on the national-level. Why do these Arab states, despite their similar culture, demography, and French colonial heritage, have such different histories of left-Islamist alliances? Using a multi-method approach, including over 100 Arabic field interviews and an original dataset, this paper argues that left-Islamist alliances form as a mutual-defense strategy against a threat and endure when both parties have a similar social base – urban, educated social classes. If one of the two parties draws on a rural and illiterate social base, however, it becomes vulnerable to co-optation that causes alliance collapse. When leftists and Islamists had similar social origins and class interests in urban areas, they were more likely to build viii enduring opposition alliances during the 2011 Arab Spring. This finding leads to one overarching point: authoritarian regimes that monopolized rural politics and employed co-optation to fend-off opposition alliances proved more resilient during the Arab Spring. ix Table of Contents List of Tables ...................................................................................................... xiii List of Figures .......................................................................................................xiv Chapter 1: The Social Base of Divide-and-Rule: Left-Islamist Alliances in North Africa’s Arab Spring .......................................................................................1 Three Countries, Three Trends, Nine Cases ...................................................3 Key Definitions and Concepts ...............................................................6 Regime, Leftist, and Islamist Parties in Tunisia, Morocco, and Mauritania 11 Primacy of Strategy: Cross-Ideological Alliances in Democracies and Dictatorships ........................................................................................16 Cross-Ideological Alliances in Authoritarian Regimes .......................18 Left-Islamist Alliances in the Middle East and North Africa ..............24 The Authoritarian’s Base: the Vulnerability of a Rural Social Constituency26 The Social Foundations of Enduring Opposition Alliances .........................30 The Model: From Regime Formation to Opposition Coordination .....34 First Background Factor: An Authoritarian Regime’s Rural or Urban Social Base .........................................................................35