Study on the Effects and Incidence of Labour Taxation Final Report
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ISSN 1725-7565 (PDF) ISSN 1725-7557 (Printed) TAXATION PAPERS Study on the WORKING PAPER N. 56 – 2015 STUDY ON THE EFFECTS AND INCIDENCE OF LABOUR TAXATION — FINAL REPORT effects and CPB in consortium with: CAPP incidence CASE CEPII of labour taxation ETLA IFO IFS Final report Taxation and Customs Union Taxation Papers are written by the staff of the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Taxation and Customs Union, or by experts working in association with them. Taxation Papers are intended to increase awareness of the work being done by the staff and to seek comments and suggestions for further analyses. These papers often represent preliminary work, circulated to encourage discussion and comment. Citation and use of such a paper should take into account of its provisional character. The views expressed in the Taxation Papers are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the European Commission. 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Subscribe now to the Commission’s e-mail newsflash at: http://ec.europa.eu/taxation_customs/common/newsflash/index_en.htm Cataloguing data can be found at the end of this publication. Luxembourg: Office for Official Publications of the European Communities, 2015 doi:10.2778/88441 (printed) doi:10.2778/1807 (PDF) ISBN 978-92-79-48353-0 (printed) ISBN 978-92-79-44439-5 (PDF) © European Union, 2015 Reproduction is authorised provided the source is acknowledged. PRINTED ON WHITE CHLORINE-FREE PAPER Study on the effects and incidence of labour taxation Final Report TAXUD/2014/DE/313 FWC No. TAXUD/2010/CC/104 IHS Institute for Advances Studies (Project leader) CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (Consortium leader) In consortium with: CAPP CASE CEPII ETLA IFO IFS mmmll European Commission Study on the effects and incidence of labour taxation Preface This report has been prepared for the project “Study on the effects and incidence of labour taxation”, Specific Contract No. TAXUD/2014/DE/313 implementing the Framework Service Contract No. TAXUD/2010/CC/104 for the provision of economic analysis in the area of taxation. We are grateful for the valuable feedback of the steering group and the external reviewers. The following institutions and persons contributed to this project IHS - Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna (project leader) Helmut Hofer, Raphaela Hyee, Simon Loretz, and Sandra Müllbacher CAPP - Centre for the Analysis of Public Policies, Modena Massimo Baldini and Giovanni Gallo CASE - Center for Social and Economic Research, Warsaw Izabela Styczyńska and Gokben Aydilek ETLA - The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy, Helsinki Tarmo Valkonen IFS – Institute for fiscal studies, London Stuart Adam and David Philips The information and views set out in this report are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the official opinion of the Commission. The Commission does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this study. Neither the Commission nor any person acting on the Commission’s behalf may be held responsible for the use which may be made of the information contained therein. May 2015 | 2 European Commission Study on the effects and incidence of labour taxation Table of contents Preface ............................................................................................................. 2 Table of contents ............................................................................................... 3 List of tables ..................................................................................................... 5 List of figures .................................................................................................... 5 List of abbreviations ........................................................................................... 7 Executive Summary ........................................................................................... 8 Résumé ...........................................................................................................14 1. Introduction ............................................................................................21 1.1. Background .........................................................................................21 1.2. Objective and tasks ..............................................................................24 2. Review of the sources of employment problems ..........................................25 2.1. A broad characterisation of employment problems ....................................25 2.1.1. Cyclical and structural employment problems ....................................27 2.1.2. Mismatch between labour supply and labour demand ..........................28 2.1.3. Rigidities in wages and the labour market .........................................29 2.1.4. Incentive problems .........................................................................30 2.2. Changes in Labour supply and demand as sources of employment problems 31 2.2.1. Factors affecting labour supply .........................................................32 2.2.2. Factor affecting labour demand ........................................................36 2.3. Groups vulnerable to employment problems ............................................38 2.3.1. Low-skilled ....................................................................................39 2.3.2. Youth ............................................................................................41 2.3.3. Elderly ..........................................................................................43 2.3.4. Women .........................................................................................44 2.3.5. Migrants ........................................................................................45 2.4. Summary ............................................................................................47 3. Review of the tax incidence on labour ........................................................49 3.1. How can one identify the incidence of a tax? ............................................49 3.2. Direct estimates of the incidence of labour taxation ..................................53 3.2.1. Meta-analysis of results ..................................................................53 3.2.2. Macro-studies ................................................................................55 3.2.3. Within-country studies ....................................................................61 3.2.4. Summary ......................................................................................67 3.3. Review of the literature on labour supply elasticities .................................68 3.3.1. Economic model and interpretation of the wage elasticity of labour supply 68 3.3.2. Econometric issues and identification ................................................70 3.3.3. Empirical evidence on labour supply elasticities ..................................73 3.3.4. Labour supply and household decision making ...................................76 3.3.5. Using tax return data to estimate behavioural responses to taxation.....78 3.4. Review of the literature on labour demand elasticities ...............................82 3.5. Learning about labour tax incidence in CGE models ..................................83 3.5.1. Properties, which are important for incidence of taxes ........................84 3.5.2. Reviewing the incidence of labour income taxes in CGE models ............87 3.5.3. An illustration of the link between contributions and benefits ...............93 3.6. Summary ............................................................................................95 4. Review of the interplay between labour market institutions/regulations and labour taxation .................................................................................................98 4.1. Wage setting institutions .......................................................................98 4.2. Welfare state and labour supply ........................................................... 104 4.2.1. Incentive issues of the tax and transfer system ................................ 105 4.2.2. Opportunity costs of work and the welfare system ............................ 109 May 2015 | 3 European Commission Study on the effects and incidence of labour taxation 4.3. Summary .......................................................................................... 116 5. Framework with indicators to identify the role of labour taxation in causing and solving employment problems .......................................................................... 118 5.1. Value-added and limitations