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The Fate of One-Dollar Coins in the U.S. by Sébastien Lotz and Guillaume Rocheteau

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The Fate of One-Dollar Coins in the U.S. by Sébastien Lotz and Guillaume Rocheteau October 15, 2004* Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland The Fate of One-Dollar Coins in the U.S. by Sébastien Lotz and Guillaume Rocheteau In 1997, the U.S. Dollar Coin Act hands, what economists call its velocity. authorized the introduction of a new Since paper money has a low production The United States has introduced two dollar coin, and in January 2000, the cost but is less durable than metallic one-dollar coins in the past 25 years, coin was released to the public. The new money, it is well suited for large denomi- both of which have not circulated coin, called the golden (Sacagawea) nations that do not circulate frequently. dollar because of its color, aimed to In contrast, coins, which cost more to widely. Many other countries have replace another one-dollar coin intro- produce, are better suited for small replaced lower-denomination notes duced in 1979, the Susan B. Anthony denominations that have a high velocity with coins and have achieved wide dollar, and, ultimately, the one-dollar and are subject to greater wear. circulation and cost savings. Lessons bill. The Anthony and golden dollar from those countries suggest that coins have several characteristics in In most countries, the stock of currency is achieving widespread use of a dollar composed of both coins and notes (paper common: Their size, weight, and elec- coin is much harder if the note is or, as in Australia, polymer money). But tromagnetic properties are the same, and allowed to remain in circulation. both coins portray famous women in countries differ in where they set their U.S. history. These coins also share the coin–note frontier, the denomination at which the system switches from coins to same fate: They have both failed to cir- of coins for notes. As mentioned earlier, notes. Because inflation constantly erodes culate widely in retail transactions. coins cost more to produce but last the purchasing power of the units of longer, so for every $100 kept in circula- Two attempts to introduce a one-dollar money, the frontier between small and tion, estimates suggest that $1.82 would coin in just 25 years suggest there must large denominations should change over be saved by switching to coins. (For be some strong motivation for having a time. Other countries—Japan, the United details, see the sidebar.) But substituting one-dollar coin. What is it? And if there Kingdom, and Canada, among others1— coins for notes would likely require more are good reasons for having a one-dollar have changed their frontiers, but the coins than notes, since many will sit idle coin, why has it failed to circulate in the United States has not. This is illustrated in in vending machines. In addition, analysts United States, when coins with similar figure 1, where the coin–note frontier for predict the use of two-dollar notes would purchasing power circulate successfully the United States seems out of line com- increase slightly if the one-dollar note in other countries? pared to those of other countries. In fact, were removed completely from circula- among the developed countries shown in tion. Adjusting the estimated savings for ■ The Coin–Note Frontier figure 1, the United States is the country these details lowers the projected savings The most commonly cited economic whose largest coin has the smallest to $1.34 for each 100 notes originally in rationale for introducing dollar coins is purchasing power. The difference is even circulation. Keep in mind such savings the potential for cost savings. Savings more striking when one considers that are significant when one considers the are possible because the cost of main- the figure includes the one-dollar coin, number of one-dollar notes in circulation, taining one-dollar bills in circulation is but the highest denomination coin circu- which was about eight billion at the end far greater than the cost of servicing lating widely in the United States is in coins. While dollar coins are more of 2003, according to Treasury estimates fact the quarter. 2 costly to produce, they last much longer (Treasury Bulletin, 2004) . than dollar bills. ■ Potential Cost Savings Yet another factor that plays into future The higher coin–note frontiers of most cost savings is seigniorage revenue, This trade-off between the initial pro- other developed countries suggest that which comes from the difference duction cost and durability comes into the United States might have something between the face value of a coin or note play when selecting the most cost- to gain by moving its frontier. That gain and its production costs (See the side- efficient material to represent a particu- is cost savings, which by most reckon- bar). A final area in which further lar denomination. Longer-lasting materi- ings are fairly substantial. als are costly, and resources are wasted savings may result is processing, which if a denomination is made out of some- To get an idea of where the savings come refers to examining the existing stock of thing more durable than it needs to be. from, we can first consider the reduction coins and bills and removing unfit or The durability of an object depends also in annual production costs that would be counterfeit pieces from circulation. The on the frequency with which it changes achieved by substituting an equal number cost to the Federal Reserve of processing ISSN 0428-1276 *printed December 2004 FIGURE 1 THE COIN–NOTE FRONTIER acts and the other doesn’t, it is risky to make the change unilaterally (For a U.S. dollars 9 game-theoretic explanation, see www.clevelandfed.org/research/ 7.8 8 Com2004/index.cfm#1015). 7.1 Largest coin 7 Smallest note Because wide circulation of the dollar 6 involves network externalities, an 5.5 opportunity exists for the government to 5 intervene. In effect, it could help both 4.1 3.6 parties adopt the coin simultaneously by 4 3.1 easing the transition to a dollar coin. 3 Several measures are possible. For 2.2 1.6 example, an informational campaign 2 can make people aware of the benefits 1.0 1.0 1 of using the new coin, which might make them more inclined to use it. The 0 public may not recognize the benefits Euro zone Japan U.K. Canada U.S. initially because it won’t experience NOTE: The comparison was made using purchasing power parties; see OECD 2004. them until widespread acceptance of the coin has been achieved. In addition, since the major benefit of coins comes from cost savings that the public is coins, which can be weighed, is smaller ated with a change in habits. The cost is unlikely to discern on a daily basis, edu- than the cost of processing notes, which exacerbated when there is confusion cation on this point might be effective. must be counted and individually between the new coin and existing coins, The public sector could also make the verified. as was the case with the Susan B. switch itself (through government agen- Anthony dollar and the quarter. Addi- cies, for instance) in order to trigger the Overall annual budgetary savings— tionally, surveys show that people con- including production and processing adoption of the coin by the private sec- sider coins heavier to carry than notes, as tor. For this strategy to work, the size of costs, seigniorage revenue, start-up, and well as bulky and awkward (GAO, advertising cost—have been estimated the public sector must be large enough. 1993). The Kennedy half-dollar and the The government can also ask big players at more than $450 million (Kelley, Eisenhower dollar, for example, did not 1995) to more than $500 million (GAO, in the market, such as major retailers, to circulate very widely because of their help introduce the new coin. 2000; 2002). With such savings, it is relatively large size and weight (see easy to see why the United States has Caskey and St. Laurent, 1994). These strategies have been tried, however, twice introduced dollar coins. so far with little success. Past public infor- Economic theories emphasize strategic ■ The Difficulty of Launching mation campaigns have been effective in interactions between the public, busi- making the public aware of the new coin, a New Coin nesses, and banks to explain the difficulty so it is not clear that more should be done Of course, these cost savings can’t be of launching a new coin. Businesses will in terms of informing the public (GAO, realized unless the one-dollar coin is not order dollar coins or upgrade vending 2002). And when the golden dollar was accepted and circulates widely. Several machines until they see the public using introduced, Wal-Mart stores were among obstacles make it difficult to achieve them; the public is unlikely to use coins the first to distribute it. wide acceptance of a new coin. While until there are enough places available the savings are attractive, adopting the where it prefers to use them; and banks To encourage people to use the dollar coin also means increased costs— are reluctant to invest in new equipment coin, the Presidential One-Dollar Coin both tangible and psychological— to handle coins until there is wide Act of 2004, recently submitted to the for businesses and consumers. demand for them. These behaviors reflect House of Representatives, proposes to the presence of network externalities, launch a new series of one-dollar golden For example, the banking industry, which arise when the gain from adopting coins portraying former U.S. presidents which pays to store, sort, and wrap a new technology depends on how many (“presidential dollars”) in 2006.
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