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Dollar Closes 2020 on Back Foot, Amid Hints of White Smoke from Beijing J December 2019

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Dollar Closes 2020 on Back Foot, Amid Hints of White Smoke from Beijing J December 2019 Dollar closes 2020 on back foot, amid hints of white smoke from Beijing J december 2019 GBP Sterling had a wild ride in 2019, and looks set to close the year comfortably higher, both in a broad sense and against key currencies such as the euro and the US dollar. Brexit was practically the sole driver of the currency, which weakened on fears of a no-deal Brexit after Boris Johnson's arrival at Number 10. The pound then saw a major rally after Boris Johnson announced a withdrawal agreement had been struck, and saw a small, short-lived rally after the general election that completely reversed itself within days. Brexit is likely to remain a driver for sterling in 2020 as negotiations for a free trade deal with the EU continue, and the threat of a no-deal Brexit, while greatly diminished has not quite been completely removed. Next to the momentous events and swings of 2019 yesterday's sterling price action was relatively mild. The pound drifted slightly higher against the dollar, and was roughly flat against the euro. EUR EURUSD hit its highest point since the 13th August yesterday as the dollar's bleed out continued. Optimism around the single currency may begin to pick up as increased liquidity from the central bank begins to take its toll on the economy, soft survey data begins to show signs of bottoming out, and global trade tensions start to subside at the margin. Yesterday's eurozone news focused around the extension of Gazprom and Ukraine gas deal, which sees a 5-year deal signed a day prior to the previous deals expiration date. This will prevent a supply crisis for the eurozone economy just as winter begins to bite. Thursday encompasses the release of the final reading for December's manufacturing PMI. No change from the flash 45.9 reading is expected. USD The dollar weakened against most of its major currency peers yesterday, although the pace of the decline was not as dramatic as at the end of last week. Chinese state media reported that Vice Premier Liu He is set to lead a delegation to Washington this Saturday, to sign a "phase one" trade deal. The reports cited anonymous sources but is consistent with the generally positive tone of comments from actual decision makers on both sides, which have been generally positive about such an agreement being struck in the near future. On the whole, the dollar has benefitted this year from the weakening in global growth due to escalating trade tensions and conversely has weakened somewhat on news that tensions are set to ease. Driven by this dynamic, the dollar weakened in Q4 after reaching multi-year highs amid severe trade tensions during Q3, leaving broad indices such as DXY and the Bloomberg dollar index only slightly higher now compared to January. Trade and both domestic and international politics will remain important drivers for the dollar in 2020. The ISM-MNI Chicago purchasing managers' index rose to a four month high of 48.9, slightly short of the 50 reading that indicates overall growth in business activity according to survey respondents. House price indices from both official sources and Standard & Poors will be released today at 14:00 GMT, while the Conference Board's consumer confidence survey will be released at 15:00. CAD The loonie looks set to close the year out as the best performing G10 currency in a year that has been defined by broad USD strength, easing global monetary policy and heightened trade uncertainty. The Bank of Canada refrained from lowering rates despite this global environment but the prospect of an insurance rate emerged at the back end of the year. The Canadian economy remains on a firm footing with the economy producing close to potential, a tight labour market, and strong wage growth. Renewed optimism over a trade deal trims the possibility of a rate cut by the central bank in the new year, which may see the loonie continue to trade at stronger levels than this time last year. This week, the data calendar is light for the Canadian dollar with just December's manufacturing PMI scheduled for release at 14:30 GMT on Thursday. This information has been prepared by Monex Europe Limited, an execution-only service provider. The material is for general information purposes only, and does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. Nothing in this material is, or should be considered to be, financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by Monex Europe Limited or the author that any particular transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication..
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