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SOCIO-ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Public Version SOCIO-ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Public Version Legal name of applicants: Dow Italia Srl Rohm and Haas France S.A.S. Submitted by: Dow Italia Srl Substance: 1,2-Dichloroethane (EC No. 203-458-1, CAS No. 107-06- 2) Use title: Industrial use as a sulphonation swelling agent of polystyrene-divinylbenzene copolymer beads in the production of strong acid cation exchange resins Use number: 1 Copyright ©2016 Dow Italia Srl. This document is the copyright of Dow Italia Srl and is not to be reproduced or copied without its prior authority or permission. Disclaimer This report has been prepared by Risk & Policy Analysts Ltd, with reasonable skill, care and diligence under a contract to the client and in accordance with the terms and provisions of the contract. Risk & Policy Analysts Ltd will accept no responsibility towards the client and third parties in respect of any matters outside the scope of the contract. This report has been prepared for the client and we accept no liability for any loss or damage arising out of the provision of the report to third parties. Any such party relies on the report at their own risk. CONTENTS 1 Summary of Socio-Economic Analysis .................................................................................... 1 1.1 Background ..................................................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Requested review period ................................................................................................................ 1 1.3 Human health impacts from the continued use of EDC ................................................................. 1 1.4 Economic and social benefits from the continued use of EDC ....................................................... 2 1.5 Balance of benefits and costs ......................................................................................................... 3 2 Aims and scope of SEA .......................................................................................................... 4 2.1 Aims and scope of SEA .................................................................................................................... 4 2.1.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................... 4 2.1.2 Dow company structure .................................................................................................. 5 2.1.3 Temporal boundaries ...................................................................................................... 9 2.1.4 Geographical boundaries ................................................................................................ 9 2.1.5 Relevant supply chains .................................................................................................... 9 2.1.6 Overview of the IER market .......................................................................................... 13 2.2 Definition of “Applied for Use” Scenario ...................................................................................... 18 2.2.1 “Applied for Use” Scenario ........................................................................................... 18 2.2.2 Sources of information.................................................................................................. 20 2.2.3 Conditions of “Applied for Use” Scenario ..................................................................... 20 2.3 Definition of “Non-use” scenarios ................................................................................................ 20 2.3.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................. 20 2.3.2 “Non-use” Scenario 1: Implementation of 1,2,4-trifluorobenzene, DCM or solventless sulphonation as an alternative ..................................................................................................... 20 2.3.3 “Non-use” Scenario 2: Restructuring of global IER manufacturing activities .............. 21 2.3.4 Likelihood of “Non-use” Scenarios ............................................................................... 24 2.4 Information for the length of the review period .......................................................................... 24 2.4.1 Key points ...................................................................................................................... 24 2.4.2 ‘Realistic best case’ timeframe ..................................................................................... 28 3 Analysis of impacts ............................................................................................................. 32 3.1 Human Health Impacts ................................................................................................................. 32 3.1.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................. 32 3.1.2 Hazard profile for EDC ................................................................................................... 32 3.1.3 Human health impacts under the “Applied for Use” Scenario ..................................... 33 3.1.4 Human health impacts under the “Non-use” Scenario ................................................ 42 3.1.5 Comparison of impacts under the “Applied for Use” and “Non-use” Scenarios .......... 42 3.2 Environmental impacts ................................................................................................................. 43 3.2.1 EDC releases .................................................................................................................. 43 3.2.2 Comparison of environmental impacts under the “Applied for Use” and “Non-use” Scenarios…….................................................................................................................................. 43 3.3 Economic impacts ......................................................................................................................... 45 3.3.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................. 44 3.3.2 Impacts on the applicants ............................................................................................. 44 3.3.3 Impacts along the supply chain ..................................................................................... 48 3.3.4 Assumptions and uncertainties..................................................................................... 55 3.4 Social impacts................................................................................................................................ 55 3.4.1 Employment impacts .................................................................................................... 55 3.5 Wider economic impacts .............................................................................................................. 60 3.5.1 Effects on competition .................................................................................................. 60 3.5.2 Effects on competitiveness outside the EU .................................................................. 62 4 Combined Assessment of Impacts ....................................................................................... 63 4.1 Comparison of impacts ................................................................................................................. 63 4.2 Distributional impacts ................................................................................................................... 65 4.2.1 Distributional impacts on government finances ........................................................... 65 4.2.2 Winners and losers under the “Non-use” Scenario ...................................................... 65 4.3 Uncertainty analysis ...................................................................................................................... 65 5 Conclusions ........................................................................................................................ 68 5.1 Socio-economic benefits of continued use ................................................................................... 68 5.2 Residual risks to human health and the environment of continued use ...................................... 68 5.3 Factors concerning operating conditions, risk management measures and monitoring arrangements ........................................................................................................................................ 69 5.4 Factors relating to the duration of the review period .................................................................. 69 6 References ......................................................................................................................... 70 7 Annex 1: Economic valuation of excess cancer cases ........................................................... 72 8 Annex 2: Summary of review period considerations ............................................................ 74 9 Annex 3: Justification for confidentiality claims ................................................................... 76 1 Summary of Socio-Economic Analysis 1.1 Background This Application for Authorisation (AfA) has been submitted jointly by two legal entities: Dow Italia Srl, and Rohm and Haas France S.A.S. The substance of concern is 1,2-dichloroethane (hereafter referred
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