Selvaag Bolig
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Company presentation Baard Schumann, CEO Sverre Molvik, CFO November 2015 Selvaag Bolig is a residential developer that provides targeted housing concepts to suit aspirations of different households in and around the main cities: Oslo, Stavanger, Bergen and Trondheim 2 Norway’s leading homebuilder Sales in Q3 2015: 208 units Sales YTD 2015: 726 units Land bank for 11 800 Trondheim homes 501 units Focus on fast growing urban regions Housing concepts Bergen 156 units tailored to house buyer Greater-Oslo 9 121 units requirements Stavanger 1 805 units Stockholm 103 units Other 155 units Note: The numbers represent the size of the land portfolio as at 30. September 2015. All numbers are adjusted for Selvaag Bolig’s share in joint ventures. 1) Greater Oslo area: Oslo, Akershus, Buskerud, Vestfold and Østfold, 2) 155 units at Tromsø (Troms county), 3) The residential property development portfolio consists of land plots that are to be paid for when planning permission is received. These have a development potential of ~4 950 residential units, whereof the company has purchasing obligations for ~4 300 and purchasing options for ~650 units Housing for all Housing for all The Gullhaug House 2013 50 000 homes Pluss: Housing with completed extra service 2012 e Modular construction 2011 Listed at Oslo Børs 2003 2000 Defind hous i ng concept s 1999 Løren district Terraced 1988 buildings «It’s better to build 30 000 homes 1958 Industrial for 15 000 kroner than 15 000 production 1951 homes for 30 000 kroner» Olav Selvaag 1948 Veitvet district The Ekeberg House 4 Value creation in Selvaag Bolig 6 – 36 MONTHS 6 – 12 MONTHS 3 – 9 MONTHS 12 – 24 MONTHS Acquire and Marketing refine land for Project design Construction and sale development Residential development Zoning Sales start Construction start Deliveries Value creation . Buy (i) options on . Plan and . Target 60% pre-sale . Fixed price contracts with unzoned land, or (ii) prepare for before start-up reputable and solid ready to build land construction (irrevocable purchase counterpart contracts) . Lever acquired land . Construction costs financed Project to improve ROE . Prices on remaining with construction loans optimization 40% increased . Target 100% sale at delivery gradually during sell out phase 5 Norwegian housing market Good demand for new homes and persistent population growth in urban areas Low risk for housebuilders Advance sales: banks require that 50-70% of homes are sold before construction starts Binding offers: offer to purchase is a binding sales contract, and requires a 10% minimum cash deposit High level of home ownership 85% (one of the world’s highest) Economic benefits for home owners 26% of mortgage loan interest payments are tax-deductible Transfer stamp duty for new houses is lower than for second hand homes Strong population growth Norway’s urban areas are among the fastest growing in Europe. Good demand for new homes Source: Source Selvaag Bolig and Eurostat 6 Selvaag Bolig – value proposition Selvaag Bolig ASA is a Norwegian residential property developer with no in-house construction arm, which controls the entire value chain from the acquisition of land to the sale of homes. Low risk business model 60 per cent presale before construction starts Only present in fast growing urban regions with high demand and large market depth Very competitive prices ensure a broad customer base No in-house construction arm All construction activity put out to competitive tender Lower building costs Fixed construction price Reduced risk Smaller exposure to market fluctuations Defined housing concepts Aimed at broad consumer categories Profit maximisation in all projects Large projects with more than 150 apartments Large land bank Several thousand homes under development in Norway’s four fastest growing urban regions 7 Three well defined and robust concepts . Small and affordable apartments . In and around large cities . Close to public transportation . Young people in the start-up phase . Apartments/small houses situated in high density areas . Established housing solutions, solid quality and well planned living environment . Single people/couples in all ages, with/without children . Apartments with attractive, central location in large cities . High quality standard coupled with a service concept . Affluent customers who value comfort and convenience 8 Market update 9 OPERATIONAL UPDATE Q3 2015 Continued high sales activity in Q3 Total sales value and value per sold unit Residential units sold NOKm Units 1 021 1 011 915 886 795 750 740 693 790 208 726 679 653 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.3 487 443 394 Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 2012 2013 2014 2015 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Note: All numbers are adjusted for Selvaag Bolig’s ownership in joint ventures. * Includes 95 student residences with an average value of NOK 0.7 million (dotted area) 10 OPERATIONAL UPDATE Q3 2015 Majority of construction starts in Oslo area Construction starts per quarter No of units 280 284 104 apartments in Oslo area Expected revenue NOK 441 million 203 199 204 67 apartments units in Trondheim area Expected revenue NOK 216 million 33 apartments in Bergen area Expected revenue NOK 152 million Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 11 OPERATIONAL UPDATE Q3 2015 High number of units for delivery Development units under construction Expected completions per quarter Units NOK million No of units (net figures) 280 1 384 1 394 1 426 258 1 347 1 308 183 5 159 169 4 689 4 968 4 909 5 077 118 Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Number of units under construction Sales value (NOK million) Q3 2015: 78% sold, 57% of construction volume in Greater Oslo 95% of 2015 completions sold by Q3 2015 YE 2016: ~80% of construction volume in Greater Oslo 87% of 2016 completions sold by Q3 2015 Note: Projects are included when construction start is decided. All numbers are adjusted for Selvaag Bolig’s ownership share in joint ventures. 12 MARKET – SELVAAG BOLIG POSITION Strong sales compared to peers Sales activity vs. peers last 5 quarters High sales reflect Selvaag Bolig’s Units, net figures competitive prices and defined housing strategy 1 600 1 400 All construction activity put out to competitive tender 1 200 Large land bank in fast growing urban areas 1 000 Selvaag Bolig average price in Q3 800 2015: NOK 3.6m 600 400 Total market (second-hand) average 200 price in YTD 2015*: flats NOK 3.4m , terraced NOK 4.4m, semi-detached 0 NOK 5.3m (Ex BWG Homes) * Selected markets: Greater-Oslo, Tromsø, Trondheim, Bergen and Stavanger Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Housing types Selvaag Bolig: flats, semi-detached and terraced homes Source: Selvaag Bolig and Eiendomsverdi 13 OPERATIONAL UPDATE Q3 2015 Selvaag Bolig competitively positioned Units sold vs. peers last five quarters (net figures) Units 400 347 350 308 306 300 286 250 233 210 208 207 197 203 201 200 179 166 161 146 150 127 128 106 100 107 100 82 88 59 59 50 0 Selvaag Bolig OBOS BWG Norge JM Norge Skanska Norge Veidekke Norge Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 OPERATIONAL UPDATE Q3 2015 Maintaining strong market position Units under construction vs. peers (net figures) Antall boliger 2000 1830 1800 1737 1628 1600 1426 13841394 1360 1400 1308 1200 1070 1001 942 942 1000 931 896 825 845 800 600 561 441 399 412 416 413 400 310 330 200 0 Selvaag Bolig OBOS BWG Norge JM Norge Veidekke Norge Skanska Norge Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 MARKET UPDATE – SECOND-HAND INVENTORY Low in Bergen and Trondheim, high in Stavanger Bergen Trondheim Stavanger area October 2007-2015 October 2007-2015 October 2007-2015 Units Units Units 3000 2000 2000 1750 1750 2500 1500 1500 2000 1250 1250 1500 1000 1000 750 750 1000 500 500 500 250 250 0 0 0 Market inventory second-hand homes 31 Market inventory second-hand homes 31 Market inventory second-hand homes 31 October October October Sold units October Sold units October Sold units October Selected areas: Bergen Selected areas: Stavanger, Sola, Randaberg, Sandnes Source: Eiendomsverdi MARKET UPDATE – SECOND-HAND INVENTORY Inventory in Oslo at historical low Oslo and Akershus, October 2007-2015 Units 9 000 7 500 6 000 4 500 3 000 1 500 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Market inventory second hand homes 31 October Sold units October Selected areas: Oslo, Lørenskog, Ski ,Oppgård, Bærum, Asker Source: Eiendomsverdi 17 MARKET UPDATE – PRICE DEVELOPMENT Price development in Oslo reflects tight market New-build vs second-hand last 12 months Price per square meter, NOK Rising prices for second-hand homes in Oslo 80 000 +6% 70 000 65 400 +11% Up 11% last 12 months, up 4% in Q3 61 698 60 000 56 500 Prices for new-built homes have increased less 50 901 50 000 Up 6% last 12 months, up 1% in Q3 40 000 Low reaction/sales time: 35 days in Norway / 30 000 17 days in Oslo 20 000 10 000 0 Newbuild Second hand Q3 2014 Q3 2015 *Source: DNB Eiendom Nybygg Oslo og Akershus. Nr 3 2015 18 MARKET UPDATE – NEWBUILD Gap between supply and demand in Oslo >50 000 next five years Annual newbuild supply at ~4k units vs. demand at ~6.4k next years Forecasted population growth Oslo Number of newbuilding units in Oslo - historical and forecasted Statistics Norway base case Statistics Norway and Prognosesenteret 733,648 Demand at ~6.4* units 689,647 634,463 575,475 4,504 4,100 4,210 3,777 3,668 3,550 3,069 1,810 1,560 1,732 1,171 2009 2014 2019 2024 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015e 2016e 2017e Annual demand for new house units in Oslo next five years ~6 400* Oslo land bank with housing planning