Spectral Estimation and Its Application
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Probability Based Estimation Theory for Respondent Driven Sampling
Journal of Official Statistics, Vol. 24, No. 1, 2008, pp. 79–97 Probability Based Estimation Theory for Respondent Driven Sampling Erik Volz1 and Douglas D. Heckathorn2 Many populations of interest present special challenges for traditional survey methodology when it is difficult or impossible to obtain a traditional sampling frame. In the case of such “hidden” populations at risk of HIV/AIDS, many researchers have resorted to chain-referral sampling. Recent progress on the theory of chain-referral sampling has led to Respondent Driven Sampling (RDS), a rigorous chain-referral method which allows unbiased estimation of the target population. In this article we present new probability-theoretic methods for making estimates from RDS data. The new estimators offer improved simplicity, analytical tractability, and allow the estimation of continuous variables. An analytical variance estimator is proposed in the case of estimating categorical variables. The properties of the estimator and the associated variance estimator are explored in a simulation study, and compared to alternative RDS estimators using data from a study of New York City jazz musicians. The new estimator gives results consistent with alternative RDS estimators in the study of jazz musicians, and demonstrates greater precision than alternative estimators in the simulation study. Key words: Respondent driven sampling; chain-referral sampling; Hansen–Hurwitz; MCMC. 1. Introduction Chain-referral sampling has emerged as a powerful method for sampling hard-to-reach or hidden populations. Such sampling methods are favored for such populations because they do not require the specification of a sampling frame. The lack of a sampling frame means that the survey data from a chain-referral sample is contingent on a number of factors outside the researcher’s control such as the social network on which recruitment takes place. -
Moving Average Filters
CHAPTER 15 Moving Average Filters The moving average is the most common filter in DSP, mainly because it is the easiest digital filter to understand and use. In spite of its simplicity, the moving average filter is optimal for a common task: reducing random noise while retaining a sharp step response. This makes it the premier filter for time domain encoded signals. However, the moving average is the worst filter for frequency domain encoded signals, with little ability to separate one band of frequencies from another. Relatives of the moving average filter include the Gaussian, Blackman, and multiple- pass moving average. These have slightly better performance in the frequency domain, at the expense of increased computation time. Implementation by Convolution As the name implies, the moving average filter operates by averaging a number of points from the input signal to produce each point in the output signal. In equation form, this is written: EQUATION 15-1 Equation of the moving average filter. In M &1 this equation, x[ ] is the input signal, y[ ] is ' 1 % y[i] j x [i j ] the output signal, and M is the number of M j'0 points used in the moving average. This equation only uses points on one side of the output sample being calculated. Where x[ ] is the input signal, y[ ] is the output signal, and M is the number of points in the average. For example, in a 5 point moving average filter, point 80 in the output signal is given by: x [80] % x [81] % x [82] % x [83] % x [84] y [80] ' 5 277 278 The Scientist and Engineer's Guide to Digital Signal Processing As an alternative, the group of points from the input signal can be chosen symmetrically around the output point: x[78] % x[79] % x[80] % x[81] % x[82] y[80] ' 5 This corresponds to changing the summation in Eq. -
Kalman and Particle Filtering
Abstract: The Kalman and Particle filters are algorithms that recursively update an estimate of the state and find the innovations driving a stochastic process given a sequence of observations. The Kalman filter accomplishes this goal by linear projections, while the Particle filter does so by a sequential Monte Carlo method. With the state estimates, we can forecast and smooth the stochastic process. With the innovations, we can estimate the parameters of the model. The article discusses how to set a dynamic model in a state-space form, derives the Kalman and Particle filters, and explains how to use them for estimation. Kalman and Particle Filtering The Kalman and Particle filters are algorithms that recursively update an estimate of the state and find the innovations driving a stochastic process given a sequence of observations. The Kalman filter accomplishes this goal by linear projections, while the Particle filter does so by a sequential Monte Carlo method. Since both filters start with a state-space representation of the stochastic processes of interest, section 1 presents the state-space form of a dynamic model. Then, section 2 intro- duces the Kalman filter and section 3 develops the Particle filter. For extended expositions of this material, see Doucet, de Freitas, and Gordon (2001), Durbin and Koopman (2001), and Ljungqvist and Sargent (2004). 1. The state-space representation of a dynamic model A large class of dynamic models can be represented by a state-space form: Xt+1 = ϕ (Xt,Wt+1; γ) (1) Yt = g (Xt,Vt; γ) . (2) This representation handles a stochastic process by finding three objects: a vector that l describes the position of the system (a state, Xt X R ) and two functions, one mapping ∈ ⊂ 1 the state today into the state tomorrow (the transition equation, (1)) and one mapping the state into observables, Yt (the measurement equation, (2)). -
Lecture 19: Wavelet Compression of Time Series and Images
Lecture 19: Wavelet compression of time series and images c Christopher S. Bretherton Winter 2014 Ref: Matlab Wavelet Toolbox help. 19.1 Wavelet compression of a time series The last section of wavelet leleccum notoolbox.m demonstrates the use of wavelet compression on a time series. The idea is to keep the wavelet coefficients of largest amplitude and zero out the small ones. 19.2 Wavelet analysis/compression of an image Wavelet analysis is easily extended to two-dimensional images or datasets (data matrices), by first doing a wavelet transform of each column of the matrix, then transforming each row of the result (see wavelet image). The wavelet coeffi- cient matrix has the highest level (largest-scale) averages in the first rows/columns, then successively smaller detail scales further down the rows/columns. The ex- ample also shows fine results with 50-fold data compression. 19.3 Continuous Wavelet Transform (CWT) Given a continuous signal u(t) and an analyzing wavelet (x), the CWT has the form Z 1 s − t W (λ, t) = λ−1=2 ( )u(s)ds (19.3.1) −∞ λ Here λ, the scale, is a continuous variable. We insist that have mean zero and that its square integrates to 1. The continuous Haar wavelet is defined: 8 < 1 0 < t < 1=2 (t) = −1 1=2 < t < 1 (19.3.2) : 0 otherwise W (λ, t) is proportional to the difference of running means of u over successive intervals of length λ/2. 1 Amath 482/582 Lecture 19 Bretherton - Winter 2014 2 In practice, for a discrete time series, the integral is evaluated as a Riemann sum using the Matlab wavelet toolbox function cwt. -
Detection and Estimation Theory Introduction to ECE 531 Mojtaba Soltanalian- UIC the Course
Detection and Estimation Theory Introduction to ECE 531 Mojtaba Soltanalian- UIC The course Lectures are given Tuesdays and Thursdays, 2:00-3:15pm Office hours: Thursdays 3:45-5:00pm, SEO 1031 Instructor: Prof. Mojtaba Soltanalian office: SEO 1031 email: [email protected] web: http://msol.people.uic.edu/ The course Course webpage: http://msol.people.uic.edu/ECE531 Textbook(s): * Fundamentals of Statistical Signal Processing, Volume 1: Estimation Theory, by Steven M. Kay, Prentice Hall, 1993, and (possibly) * Fundamentals of Statistical Signal Processing, Volume 2: Detection Theory, by Steven M. Kay, Prentice Hall 1998, available in hard copy form at the UIC Bookstore. The course Style: /Graduate Course with Active Participation/ Introduction Let’s start with a radar example! Introduction> Radar Example QUIZ Introduction> Radar Example You can actually explain it in ten seconds! Introduction> Radar Example Applications in Transportation, Defense, Medical Imaging, Life Sciences, Weather Prediction, Tracking & Localization Introduction> Radar Example The strongest signals leaking off our planet are radar transmissions, not television or radio. The most powerful radars, such as the one mounted on the Arecibo telescope (used to study the ionosphere and map asteroids) could be detected with a similarly sized antenna at a distance of nearly 1,000 light-years. - Seth Shostak, SETI Introduction> Estimation Traditionally discussed in STATISTICS. Estimation in Signal Processing: Digital Computers ADC/DAC (Sampling) Signal/Information Processing Introduction> Estimation The primary focus is on obtaining optimal estimation algorithms that may be implemented on a digital computer. We will work on digital signals/datasets which are typically samples of a continuous-time waveform. -
Measurement Techniques of Ultra-Wideband Transmissions
Rec. ITU-R SM.1754-0 1 RECOMMENDATION ITU-R SM.1754-0* Measurement techniques of ultra-wideband transmissions (2006) Scope Taking into account that there are two general measurement approaches (time domain and frequency domain) this Recommendation gives the appropriate techniques to be applied when measuring UWB transmissions. Keywords Ultra-wideband( UWB), international transmissions, short-duration pulse The ITU Radiocommunication Assembly, considering a) that intentional transmissions from devices using ultra-wideband (UWB) technology may extend over a very large frequency range; b) that devices using UWB technology are being developed with transmissions that span numerous radiocommunication service allocations; c) that UWB technology may be integrated into many wireless applications such as short- range indoor and outdoor communications, radar imaging, medical imaging, asset tracking, surveillance, vehicular radar and intelligent transportation; d) that a UWB transmission may be a sequence of short-duration pulses; e) that UWB transmissions may appear as noise-like, which may add to the difficulty of their measurement; f) that the measurements of UWB transmissions are different from those of conventional radiocommunication systems; g) that proper measurements and assessments of power spectral density are key issues to be addressed for any radiation, noting a) that terms and definitions for UWB technology and devices are given in Recommendation ITU-R SM.1755; b) that there are two general measurement approaches, time domain and frequency domain, with each having a particular set of advantages and disadvantages, recommends 1 that techniques described in Annex 1 to this Recommendation should be considered when measuring UWB transmissions. * Radiocommunication Study Group 1 made editorial amendments to this Recommendation in the years 2018 and 2019 in accordance with Resolution ITU-R 1. -
Power Comparisons of Five Most Commonly Used Autocorrelation Tests
Pak.j.stat.oper.res. Vol.16 No. 1 2020 pp119-130 DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.18187/pjsor.v16i1.2691 Pakistan Journal of Statistics and Operation Research Power Comparisons of Five Most Commonly Used Autocorrelation Tests Stanislaus S. Uyanto School of Economics and Business, Atma Jaya Catholic University of Indonesia, [email protected] Abstract In regression analysis, autocorrelation of the error terms violates the ordinary least squares assumption that the error terms are uncorrelated. The consequence is that the estimates of coefficients and their standard errors will be wrong if the autocorrelation is ignored. There are many tests for autocorrelation, we want to know which test is more powerful. We use Monte Carlo methods to compare the power of five most commonly used tests for autocorrelation, namely Durbin-Watson, Breusch-Godfrey, Box–Pierce, Ljung Box, and Runs tests in two different linear regression models. The results indicate the Durbin-Watson test performs better in the regression model without lagged dependent variable, although the advantage over the other tests reduce with increasing autocorrelation and sample sizes. For the model with lagged dependent variable, the Breusch-Godfrey test is generally superior to the other tests. Key Words: Correlated error terms; Ordinary least squares assumption; Residuals; Regression diagnostic; Lagged dependent variable. Mathematical Subject Classification: 62J05; 62J20. 1. Introduction An important assumption of the classical linear regression model states that there is no autocorrelation in the error terms. Autocorrelation of the error terms violates the ordinary least squares assumption that the error terms are uncorrelated, meaning that the Gauss Markov theorem (Plackett, 1949, 1950; Greene, 2018) does not apply, and that ordinary least squares estimators are no longer the best linear unbiased estimators. -
LECTURES 2 - 3 : Stochastic Processes, Autocorrelation Function
LECTURES 2 - 3 : Stochastic Processes, Autocorrelation function. Stationarity. Important points of Lecture 1: A time series fXtg is a series of observations taken sequentially over time: xt is an observation recorded at a specific time t. Characteristics of times series data: observations are dependent, become available at equally spaced time points and are time-ordered. This is a discrete time series. The purposes of time series analysis are to model and to predict or forecast future values of a series based on the history of that series. 2.2 Some descriptive techniques. (Based on [BD] x1.3 and x1.4) ......................................................................................... Take a step backwards: how do we describe a r.v. or a random vector? ² for a r.v. X: 2 d.f. FX (x) := P (X · x), mean ¹ = EX and variance σ = V ar(X). ² for a r.vector (X1;X2): joint d.f. FX1;X2 (x1; x2) := P (X1 · x1;X2 · x2), marginal d.f.FX1 (x1) := P (X1 · x1) ´ FX1;X2 (x1; 1) 2 2 mean vector (¹1; ¹2) = (EX1; EX2), variances σ1 = V ar(X1); σ2 = V ar(X2), and covariance Cov(X1;X2) = E(X1 ¡ ¹1)(X2 ¡ ¹2) ´ E(X1X2) ¡ ¹1¹2. Often we use correlation = normalized covariance: Cor(X1;X2) = Cov(X1;X2)=fσ1σ2g ......................................................................................... To describe a process X1;X2;::: we define (i) Def. Distribution function: (fi-di) d.f. Ft1:::tn (x1; : : : ; xn) = P (Xt1 · x1;:::;Xtn · xn); i.e. this is the joint d.f. for the vector (Xt1 ;:::;Xtn ). (ii) First- and Second-order moments. ² Mean: ¹X (t) = EXt 2 2 2 2 ² Variance: σX (t) = E(Xt ¡ ¹X (t)) ´ EXt ¡ ¹X (t) 1 ² Autocovariance function: γX (t; s) = Cov(Xt;Xs) = E[(Xt ¡ ¹X (t))(Xs ¡ ¹X (s))] ´ E(XtXs) ¡ ¹X (t)¹X (s) (Note: this is an infinite matrix). -
Alternative Tests for Time Series Dependence Based on Autocorrelation Coefficients
Alternative Tests for Time Series Dependence Based on Autocorrelation Coefficients Richard M. Levich and Rosario C. Rizzo * Current Draft: December 1998 Abstract: When autocorrelation is small, existing statistical techniques may not be powerful enough to reject the hypothesis that a series is free of autocorrelation. We propose two new and simple statistical tests (RHO and PHI) based on the unweighted sum of autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation coefficients. We analyze a set of simulated data to show the higher power of RHO and PHI in comparison to conventional tests for autocorrelation, especially in the presence of small but persistent autocorrelation. We show an application of our tests to data on currency futures to demonstrate their practical use. Finally, we indicate how our methodology could be used for a new class of time series models (the Generalized Autoregressive, or GAR models) that take into account the presence of small but persistent autocorrelation. _______________________________________________________________ An earlier version of this paper was presented at the Symposium on Global Integration and Competition, sponsored by the Center for Japan-U.S. Business and Economic Studies, Stern School of Business, New York University, March 27-28, 1997. We thank Paul Samuelson and the other participants at that conference for useful comments. * Stern School of Business, New York University and Research Department, Bank of Italy, respectively. 1 1. Introduction Economic time series are often characterized by positive -
Random Signals
Chapter 8 RANDOM SIGNALS Signals can be divided into two main categories - deterministic and random. The term random signal is used primarily to denote signals, which have a random in its nature source. As an example we can mention the thermal noise, which is created by the random movement of electrons in an electric conductor. Apart from this, the term random signal is used also for signals falling into other categories, such as periodic signals, which have one or several parameters that have appropriate random behavior. An example is a periodic sinusoidal signal with a random phase or amplitude. Signals can be treated either as deterministic or random, depending on the application. Speech, for example, can be considered as a deterministic signal, if one specific speech waveform is considered. It can also be viewed as a random process if one considers the ensemble of all possible speech waveforms in order to design a system that will optimally process speech signals, in general. The behavior of stochastic signals can be described only in the mean. The description of such signals is as a rule based on terms and concepts borrowed from probability theory. Signals are, however, a function of time and such description becomes quickly difficult to manage and impractical. Only a fraction of the signals, known as ergodic, can be handled in a relatively simple way. Among those signals that are excluded are the class of the non-stationary signals, which otherwise play an essential part in practice. Working in frequency domain is a powerful technique in signal processing. While the spectrum is directly related to the deterministic signals, the spectrum of a ran- dom signal is defined through its correlation function. -
3 Autocorrelation
3 Autocorrelation Autocorrelation refers to the correlation of a time series with its own past and future values. Autocorrelation is also sometimes called “lagged correlation” or “serial correlation”, which refers to the correlation between members of a series of numbers arranged in time. Positive autocorrelation might be considered a specific form of “persistence”, a tendency for a system to remain in the same state from one observation to the next. For example, the likelihood of tomorrow being rainy is greater if today is rainy than if today is dry. Geophysical time series are frequently autocorrelated because of inertia or carryover processes in the physical system. For example, the slowly evolving and moving low pressure systems in the atmosphere might impart persistence to daily rainfall. Or the slow drainage of groundwater reserves might impart correlation to successive annual flows of a river. Or stored photosynthates might impart correlation to successive annual values of tree-ring indices. Autocorrelation complicates the application of statistical tests by reducing the effective sample size. Autocorrelation can also complicate the identification of significant covariance or correlation between time series (e.g., precipitation with a tree-ring series). Autocorrelation implies that a time series is predictable, probabilistically, as future values are correlated with current and past values. Three tools for assessing the autocorrelation of a time series are (1) the time series plot, (2) the lagged scatterplot, and (3) the autocorrelation function. 3.1 Time series plot Positively autocorrelated series are sometimes referred to as persistent because positive departures from the mean tend to be followed by positive depatures from the mean, and negative departures from the mean tend to be followed by negative departures (Figure 3.1). -
Analog Transmit Signal Optimization for Undersampled Delay-Doppler
Analog Transmit Signal Optimization for Undersampled Delay-Doppler Estimation Andreas Lenz∗, Manuel S. Stein†, A. Lee Swindlehurst‡ ∗Institute for Communications Engineering, Technische Universit¨at M¨unchen, Germany †Mathematics Department, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Belgium ‡Henry Samueli School of Engineering, University of California, Irvine, USA E-Mail: [email protected], [email protected], [email protected] Abstract—In this work, the optimization of the analog transmit achievable sampling rate fs at the receiver restricts the band- waveform for joint delay-Doppler estimation under sub-Nyquist width B of the transmitter and therefore the overall system conditions is considered. Based on the Bayesian Cramer-Rao´ performance. Since the sampling rate forms a bottleneck with lower bound (BCRLB), we derive an estimation theoretic design rule for the Fourier coefficients of the analog transmit signal respect to power resources and hardware limitations [2], it when violating the sampling theorem at the receiver through a is necessary to find a trade-off between high performance wide analog pre-filtering bandwidth. For a wireless delay-Doppler and low complexity. Therefore we discuss how to design channel, we obtain a system optimization problem which can be the transmit signal for delay-Doppler estimation without the solved in compact form by using an Eigenvalue decomposition. commonly used restriction from the sampling theorem. The presented approach enables one to explore the Pareto region spanned by the optimized analog waveforms. Furthermore, we Delay-Doppler estimation has been discussed for decades demonstrate how the framework can be used to reduce the in the signal processing community [3]–[5]. In [3] a subspace sampling rate at the receiver while maintaining high estimation based algorithm for the estimation of multi-path delay-Doppler accuracy.