FROM MONTREAL TO KYOTO, HOW WE GOT FROM HERE TO THERE—OR NOT

The macro-environmental issue of climate change was first seriously addressed by the 1987 Montreal Protocol to reduce ozone depletion. The 1992 Rio Earth Summit agreed to the first global treaty on climate change. The 1997 Kyoto Protocol agreed to reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to 6 percent below 1990 levels by 2008-2012, but needs support by 55 countries responsible for 55 percent of 1990 global emissions to come into effect. When George W. Bush walked away from Kyoto in 2001, he took 25 percent of the world’s 1990 GHG emissions with him. Canada’s support became all the more important both as one of 55 signatories and as the producer of 2 percent of global GHG emissions. Prime Minister Chrétien told the world at the Johannesburg Summit that Canada would ratify the accord. Elizabeth May recounts Canada’s journey on the road from Montreal to Kyoto, a road she has personally travelled with passion and conviction. Elizabeth May C’est en 1987, à l’occasion du protocole de Montréal sur la perte de la couche d’ozone, qu’on a pour la première fois examiné sérieusement la dimension macro- environnementale des changements climatiques. Et c’est au Sommet de la Terre de Rio qu’on a mis au point en 1992 le premier traité international sur ce problème. Quant au protocole de Kyoto de 1997, il a stipulé à l’horizon 2008-2012 une réduction des émissions de gaz à effet de serre de 6 p. 100 inférieure au niveau de 1990, mais exige la participation des 55 pays responsables de 55 p. 100 des émissions mondiales de 1990 pour entrer en vigueur. En se retirant en 2001 de ce protocole, George W. Bush a emporté avec lui le quart des émissions de 1990. L’appui du Canada, en tant qu’un des signataires et que producteur de 2 p. 100 des émissions, devenait alors particulièrement important. Jean Chrétien a ainsi déclaré au Sommet de Johannesbourg qu’il ratifierait le protocole. Depuis Montréal jusqu’à Kyoto, l’auteure retrace cette saga canadienne qu’elle même a vécue avec conviction et passion.

ince the Prime Minister’s confirmation in life on Earth, sometime during my tenure working within Johannesburg of Canada’s intent to ratify before year’s the Mulroney government. From 1986-88, I worked as sen- S end, the intensity of the Kyoto debate has certainly ior policy advisor in the office of the environment minister increased. It has not, unfortunately, uniformly led to a deep- Tom McMillan. My background in environmental issues er public understanding. In fact, as huge amounts of money had taken me from grassroots campaigns against pesticide are thrown into last minute scare tactics from the anti- spraying and nuclear energy into a policy position within Kyoto forces, it is harder to sort out rhetoric from reality. the minister’s staff. An issue of importance to the depart- The most frustrating part of the propaganda campaign has ment’s scientists, but for which there was not as yet any been the claim that the Government of Canada is “rushing environmental group campaign focus, was the threat of cli- to ratify.” The notion that there has been any haste in con- mate change. fronting the threat of climate change in Canada would be In dry, technical briefings the scientists from laughable if it were not so dangerous. In walking through Environment Canada would review what was known, what the key milestones leading to Kyoto ratification, the pace was likely and what uncertainties remained about the impact has been leisurely. of ever-increasing emissions of greenhouse gases, primarily I clearly come to this debate as no unbiased observer. I from burning fossil fuels. Canada was taking a lead in the became convinced that climate change was the largest quiet discussions among scientists globally. The Government looming threat to humanity, civilization, and potentially all of Canada offered to host a major scientific conference, in

14 OPTIONS POLITIQUES DÉCEMBRE 2002 – JANVIER 2003 From Montreal to Kyoto, How We Got From Here to There—Or Not collaboration with the United Nations and the any targets or deadlines. Bush threatened that if World Meteorological Programme. The confer- deadlines and targets were included, he would ence, “The Changing Atmosphere: Implications boycott the Earth Summit: “The American for Global Security,” took place in a Toronto heat lifestyle is not on trial,” he famously proclaimed. wave in June 1988. The public and media impact The FCCC was signed and ratified by virtually Compared to likely made many Canadians aware of the issue for every nation on Earth, including Canada and the the first time. The debate at the conference was United States. the stabilization largely whether the climate changes which were In the FCCC, the nations of the world goal of the already being observed in the late 1980s were accepted that climate change was a serious threat attributable to human-caused (anthropogenic) and that efforts should be undertaken to avoid a Mulroney forces. One of Canada’s most distinguished and buildup of greenhouse gases to “dangerous” lev- conservative scientists, the late Dr. Ken Hare, was els. It also set in motion the negotiating process government, the first expert to stake his reputation on the fact to get the world to mandated targets and dead- that climate change was already upon us. lines. This process takes place within the the Chrétien By conference end, scientists from all over Conference of the Parties (COP), in which every the world agreed on a consensus statement and nation which has signed and ratified participates. Liberals, with a target for emission reductions. The statement Mulroney was responsible for the signing and rat- opened, “Humanity is conducting an unintend- ification of the FCCC, but is has been the Environment ed, uncontrolled, globally pervasive experi- Chrétien government that has negotiated critic Paul ment, whose ultimate consequences could be through the various COPs. second only to global nuclear war.” The target: Martin playing a global reductions of carbon dioxide emissions to here was every reason to expect faster action 20 percent below 1988 levels to be achieved by T to reduce greenhouse gases with the election key role, 2005. of the Chrétien Liberals. The 1993 Red Book Within the year, the United Nations estab- promised to meet the Toronto target: obtaining seemed lished an international scientific peer review 20 percent reductions against 1988 levels by group. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate 2005. Compared to the stabilization goal of the destined to Change (IPCC) was created to review the emerg- Mulroney government, the Chrétien Liberals, ing science and provide advice to policy makers. with environment critic Paul Martin playing a overtake The IPCC was composed of scientists appointed key role, seemed destined to overtake the Tory the Tory by their governments. Their conclusions require environmental lead. an enormous effort at consultation, negotiation, Sadly, the last ten years have been character- environmental and testing of evidence in order to report a con- ized by one step forward, two steps back. While sensus assessment of the science. One thing the Canada continued to move internationally lead. IPCC is not is an advocacy group. It does not pres- toward mandated reductions through a binding ent the worst case scenario. The potential for agreement, attempting actual emission reduc- Sadly, the last nasty surprises is recognized, but the reported tions took a back burner. Largely to appease warnings are based on a consensus which is, by Alberta interests, the prime minister undercut his ten years have definition, conservative. first environment minister, Sheila Copps, to but- By 1990, the United Nations General tress his Alberta-based minister of natural been Assembly set in motion the negotiations leading resources, Anne McLellan. The impact was to characterized to the Rio Earth Summit and the first global leave business and industry convinced that it was treaty on climate change. The Toronto target business as usual. Greenhouse gas emissions con- by one step became a starting point for negotiations. Canada, tinued to rise. In fact, on a per capita basis, with then environment minister Lucien through the 1990s, Canadians became more forward, two Bouchard taking the lead, set a less ambitious tar- energy wasteful, not less. get: freezing emissions. Canada committed that Nevertheless, Sheila Copps negotiated a steps back. our emissions in 2000 would be no higher than mandate leading to Kyoto that established the they were in 1990. importance of following the successful model of Two years later, the largest gathering of the Montreal Protocol to reduce ozone deplet- heads of government in the planet’s history gath- ing substances. To protect the ozone layer, the ered in Rio and agreed upon the Framework international community had agreed that the Convention on Climate Change (FCCC). Due to most important first step was for the industrial- last minute pressure tactics from then-president ized countries, which had caused the problem in George Bush, the treaty was completed without the first place and which had the resources to

POLICY OPTIONS 15 DECEMBER 2002 – JANUARY 2003 Elizabeth May

innovate and develop alternatives, to take on —just appeal to a North American sense of fair- reduction targets, while leaving developing ness and selfishness. It has been virtually impos- countries to allow emissions of ozone depleting sible to communicate through the media the substances to rise in the short term. It had suc- precedent of the Montreal Protocol and all the Kyoto’s survival ceeded with the subsequent ozone protocols reasons why leaving emission reduction targets accelerating reductions in industrialized coun- to poorer countries until later had not been acci- hung by a tries while bringing in the developing countries dental, but a deliberate negotiating mandate thread. It to cut back as well. The same approach was to be since 1993. taken for the reduction of global greenhouse Since Kyoto, we have experienced more of needed gases. What seemed non-controversial at the the same. Carbon dioxide emissions continue to time has clearly had an unforeseen public rela- climb. Canada has sought and obtained even ratification from tions impact. more loopholes, which the government prefers By COP3 in Kyoto, Canada had spent five to call “flexibility mechanisms.” A new multi- 55 countries. In years in multi-stakeholder consultations on how stakeholder, federal provincial consultation we would reduce emissions. The provinces had process was created. To date, over $20 million addition those been consulted and a target of 3 percent below has been spent on such processes, while the 1990 levels was set for our negotiating team in positions of the key antagonists remain 55 countries Kyoto. Chrétien was in Russia when he got a call unchanged. In an effort to mollify Ralph Klein, had to have from US President Bill Clinton. Clinton reported- the federal government placed the Government ly asked Chrétien to help break a predicted of Alberta as the co-chair of the process to write collectively impasse in Kyoto. The European nations wanted our implementation plan. Issue tables met sec- the protocol to mandate reductions on the order tor by sector hoping the oil industry would emitted 55 of 15 percent. Canada, the US and Japan were come to consensus with wind energy, car mak- only prepared to move much more slowly. ers with environmentalists. The magical consen- percent of Clinton asked Chrétien to offer deeper cuts in sus did not emerge. In May of this year, the order to be able to achieve success in Kyoto. Alberta government quit the process and the world’s Chrétien agreed, but allegedly obtained Clinton’s blamed the federal government for not having support for some Canadian loopholes—credits delivered the implementation plan. The plan greenhouse for our forests (for the benefits of holding carbon had been due for over a year and a half. Alberta’s gases in out of the atmosphere) and for the export of role as co-chair is certainly suspect in the failure greener technology. Chrétien’s much reported of the process to deliver. 1990. When “Beat the Americans” negotiating mandate to But the money spent over the last five years Canada’s delegation was strategic collaboration was not entirely wasted. Canada now has a vast George W. with the US, not competition. amount of information about how a wide range of In any event, by the conclusion of Kyoto, the emission reduction measures will impact the econ- walked away, he US had taken on a 7 percent target. Canada was omy, impact on jobs, and provide cleaner air. The committed to 6 percent reductions, but as then- Assessment and Modeling Group has run econom- took 25 percent environment minister Christine Stewart explained ic model after economic model. Even with pes- to angry provinces, the 6 percent target was really simistic assumptions built in, every region and of the the same as the provincially agreed negotiation every province of Canada experiences continued world’s 1990 mandate of 3 percent. Once you counted in all the economic growth under Kyoto. The distorted loopholes Canada had achieved with US support, threats of job losses from the anti-Kyoto crowd greenhouse gas the amount of reduction required would be about come from estimates of the difference in employ- 3 percent below 1990 levels. ment between economic growth of 30 percent emissions Environmental groups bemoaned the weak without Kyoto and about a percentage point less target. Counting credits from various loopholes, with Kyoto. Even then, those future hypothetic with him. Canada was committed to a very small advance job losses are more than offset by the 1.8 million over the Mulroney stabilization target, to be hypothetical future job gains under Kyoto. delivered over ten years late. Meanwhile, the US Senate proclaimed that it opposed ratifying any f course, discussions of the last five years are agreement which left out developing countries. O entirely incomplete without including the In a move that had all the earmarks of messages Bush factor. In late 2000, the sixth COP in The developed through focus groups, the forces of Big Hague was in trouble. Canada was holding out Carbon had found their wedge issue. They did for more loopholes. The Europeans were intransi- not have to be against action on climate change gent, and disgusted with the efforts to undermine

16 OPTIONS POLITIQUES DÉCEMBRE 2002 – JANVIER 2003 From Montreal to Kyoto, How We Got From Here to There—Or Not the Protocol. The Hague COP ended in an Despite Bush’s rejection of Kyoto, however, adjournment in hopes things would go better the US is doing a great deal to reduce greenhouse once the session reconvened. They might have if gases. Much of it is at the state level. California not for the butterfly ballots and hanging chads has passed a referendum mandating significant and judges placed on the US Supreme Court by fuel economy improvements in its automobiles The global the next president, George Bush. by 2007. The New England governors have band- By mid-December 2000, it was clear the ed together with Canada’s Maritime premiers in average White House was going to the Republicans. Still, agreeing to air quality targets that fall in line with temperature it was not automatically clear that Kyoto was in Kyoto. Many states in the US have adopted trouble. George W’s election platform actually Renewable Portfolio Standards which set a continues to set more ambitious greenhouse reduction tar- requirement for “green and renewable” energy gets than Al Gore. Newly appointed head of the within the state’s energy supply mix. As well, rise. It has seen US Environmental Protection Agency, former technological innovation is moving faster in the New Jersey governor Christine Todd Whitman US than in Canada. Due to a mix of these factors, a one degree explained to international gatherings that the the Pembina Institute study on Competitiveness US would continue to work toward Kyoto. and Kyoto found that if Canada failed to ratify celsius increase When George Bush announced to the contrary Kyoto, we would become less competitive. in March of 2001, it was evident he had not Eventually, the US is likely to rejoin the emis- in the last bothered to alert Whitman. White House press sions reduction effort. The US remains an active century, with secretary Ari Fleisher is reputed to have predict- player in global negotiations. Interestingly, at the ed that withdrawal from Kyoto would be a one- COP8 meetings in New Delhi in October- the rate of headline, one-day media event. He also November 2002, the US urged developing coun- explained the White House view. The American tries not to take on targets. The transparency of warming three lifestyle is based, he explained, on access to its hypocritical claims that it would not ratify cheap and abundant energy. It involves the free- Kyoto as long as developing countries were not times faster in dom of driving where you want when you want. mandated to cut emissions is exposed as the US “The American way of life is blessed.” argues against emissions reductions by any coun- Canada’s Arctic. Interestingly, following the Bush rejection try. Clearly, anything is possible in US politics. Chrétien wasted no time in reconfirming Strategically, one hopes that the next big negoti- Canada’s commitment to Kyoto . In fact, when ation to reduce emissions takes place in Houston. Environment Minister David Anderson was unable to attend the COP6 meeting’s continua- he one player in all this to not give a damn tion in July 2001 in Bonn, Chrétien dispatched T about negotiations is the atmosphere. Piling his deputy prime minister, Herb Gray. on carbon dioxide, methane and other greenhouse Kyoto’s survival hung by a thread. In order gases means only one thing to the atmosphere— for the protocol to enter into force, it needed rat- climatic destabilization. The global average tem- ifications from 55 countries. In addition those 55 perature continues to rise. It has seen a one degree countries had to have collectively emitted 55 per- celsius increase in the last century, with the rate of cent of the world’s greenhouse gases in 1990. warming three times faster in Canada’s Arctic. The When George W. walked away, he took 25 per- melting of permafrost in the MacKenzie Valley cent of the world’s 1990 greenhouse gas emis- basin was one of the first pieces of empirical evi- sions with him. Saving Kyoto meant obtaining dence that climate change was upon us. The melt- ratification support from at least the European ing permafrost releases methane. Methane is a Union, Japan and Russia. powerful greenhouse gas, providing a positive With Chrétien in Genoa for the G8 Summit, feedback loop, producing yet more warming. Polar Gray was in Bonn. Reportedly, the two spoke bears are starving; Peary Caribou are at risk of every day. Canada helped keep Japan in the pro- extinction—both because of climate change. The tocol. And Canada won even more concessions loss of sea ice is striking. In fact, with a doubling of from the European Union—as much as 40 mega- atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, the tonnes of carbon credit for forests. Arctic ice cap would become a seasonal event, with By the end of the Bonn COP6 continuation, open ocean at the top of the world. the Kyoto Protocol was saved. At least in principle, Sea level rise has begun with noticeable enough nations were committed to ratification to storm surge damage on Canada’s coasts. Extreme bring the treaty into force as binding internation- drought conditions plague Canada’s prairies. al law—even without the United States. Losses to severe weather events continue to

POLICY OPTIONS 17 DECEMBER 2002 – JANUARY 2003 Elizabeth May

mount. Floods, ice storms, forest fires and inexhaustible energy supplies of wind and solar, drought are all on the rise. The climate models as well as from more efficient end use of the have proven to be remarkably accurate, with energy we generate by any means. observations of climate change tracking tightly Perhaps, as people like Bjorn Lomborg, the We did not wait with what were mere projections in the briefings self-proclaimed “Skeptical Environmentalist,” I received in 1986. On current emissions trends, suggest all this will happen by the natural action for the economy we could see an absolute doubling of global con- of the market. Perhaps fossil fuel exploitation to solve acid rain centrations of carbon dioxide as soon as 2030. will go the way of the dinosaur for purely eco- Meeting Kyoto targets only delays the doubling nomic reasons. There is not much evidence for or ozone point by six years. Kyoto detractors use this as a that. We did not wait for the economy to solve point to criticize Kyoto and argue for inaction. In acid rain or ozone depletion. The economy and depletion. The fact, this unsettling reality points only to the rational economic choices kick in once the rules need to act aggressively and soon. Back to the are clear. The Kyoto Protocol begins a long road economy and IPCC warnings: to avoid a doubling of carbon to reduction. It starts with a fairly modest effort dioxide we need 70 percent reductions. to monetize carbon. It is just the first step, and rational To meet those levels of reductions we need to we should take it now. start now. Over the next five decades we will like- economic choices ly see steeper cuts with the entire global commu- Elizabeth May, an environmentalist, writer and kick in once the nity of nations on board. A healthy transition lawyer is Executive Director of the Sierra Club of away from our addiction to fossil fuels will likely Canada, and a former vice chair of the National rules are clear. take place. Economies will benefit from access to Round Table for the Environment and Economy.

Déclaration des provinces et des 7. Le plan doit reconnaître que les bénéfices territoires sur la politique en provenant d’actifs tels que les puits forestiers matière de changement climatique et agricoles reviendront aux provinces ou aux territoires qui sont propriétaires de ces Les provinces et les territoires conviennent qu’un plan ressources. national doit être fondé sur les principes suivants : 8. Le plan doit soutenir l’innovation et l’adop- 1. Tous les Canadiens doivent être informés et tion de nouvelles technologies. participer pleinement à l’élaboration du plan. 9. Le maintien de la compétitivité des 2. Le plan doit faire en sorte qu’aucune région entreprises et des industries canadiennes doit ou qu’aucun gouvernement n’ait à assumer être assuré par ce plan. une part déraisonnable du fardeau et qu’au- 10. Le Canada doit continuer de demander que cun secteur ou aucune région ne soit traité de ses exportations d’énergie propre soient façon injuste. Les coûts et les impacts pour les reconnues. particuliers, les entreprises et les industries 11. Le plan doit prévoir des incitatifs afin que les doivent être clairs, raisonnables, réalisables et citoyens, les communautés, les entreprises et viables sur le plan économique. Le plan doit les gouvernements prennent le virage vers prévoir un financement fédéral pour les une économie axée sur l’énergie renouvelable impacts négatifs liés aux initiatives sur les et d’autres sources d’énergie propre, une changements climatiques. réduction des émissions et des pratiques 3. Le plan doit respecter les champs de compé- viables dans tous les secteurs d’activité. tences des provinces et territoires. 12. La mise en œuvre de tout plan doit s’accom- 4. Le plan doit reconnaître les réductions d’émis- pagner d’un système d’incitatifs et d’alloca- sion de gaz à effet de serre qui ont été réalisées tion qui favorisent le recours à des sources depuis 1990 ou qui seront faites par la suite. d’énergie qui émettent moins de carbone, 5. Le plan doit prévoir des ententes bilatérales notamment l’hydroélectricité, l’énergie éo- ou multilatérales entre les provinces et les ter- lienne, l’éthanol et autres sources d’énergie ritoires ainsi qu’avec le gouvernement fédéral. renouvelable et d’énergie propre. 6. Le plan doit prévoir que les provinces et les territoires n’auront pas à assumer le risque fin- Réunion mixte des ministres de l’Énergie et de ancier des engagements pris par le fédéral en l’Environnement, Halifax, Nouvelle-Écosse, le 28 matière de changement climatique. octobre 2002.

18 OPTIONS POLITIQUES DÉCEMBRE 2002 – JANVIER 2003