December 2002 Jenny

FROM MONTREAL TO KYOTO, HOW WE GOT FROM HERE TO THERE—OR NOT The macro-environmental issue of climate change was first seriously addressed by the 1987 Montreal Protocol to reduce ozone depletion. The 1992 Rio Earth Summit agreed to the first global treaty on climate change. The 1997 Kyoto Protocol agreed to reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to 6 percent below 1990 levels by 2008-2012, but needs support by 55 countries responsible for 55 percent of 1990 global emissions to come into effect. When George W. Bush walked away from Kyoto in 2001, he took 25 percent of the world’s 1990 GHG emissions with him. Canada’s support became all the more important both as one of 55 signatories and as the producer of 2 percent of global GHG emissions. Prime Minister Chrétien told the world at the Johannesburg Summit that Canada would ratify the accord. Elizabeth May recounts Canada’s journey on the road from Montreal to Kyoto, a road she has personally travelled with passion and conviction. Elizabeth May C’est en 1987, à l’occasion du protocole de Montréal sur la perte de la couche d’ozone, qu’on a pour la première fois examiné sérieusement la dimension macro- environnementale des changements climatiques. Et c’est au Sommet de la Terre de Rio qu’on a mis au point en 1992 le premier traité international sur ce problème. Quant au protocole de Kyoto de 1997, il a stipulé à l’horizon 2008-2012 une réduction des émissions de gaz à effet de serre de 6 p. 100 inférieure au niveau de 1990, mais exige la participation des 55 pays responsables de 55 p. 100 des émissions mondiales de 1990 pour entrer en vigueur. En se retirant en 2001 de ce protocole, George W. Bush a emporté avec lui le quart des émissions de 1990. L’appui du Canada, en tant qu’un des signataires et que producteur de 2 p. 100 des émissions, devenait alors particulièrement important. Jean Chrétien a ainsi déclaré au Sommet de Johannesbourg qu’il ratifierait le protocole. Depuis Montréal jusqu’à Kyoto, l’auteure retrace cette saga canadienne qu’elle même a vécue avec conviction et passion. ince the Prime Minister’s confirmation in life on Earth, sometime during my tenure working within Johannesburg of Canada’s intent to ratify before year’s the Mulroney government. From 1986-88, I worked as sen- S end, the intensity of the Kyoto debate has certainly ior policy advisor in the office of the environment minister increased. It has not, unfortunately, uniformly led to a deep- Tom McMillan. My background in environmental issues er public understanding. In fact, as huge amounts of money had taken me from grassroots campaigns against pesticide are thrown into last minute scare tactics from the anti- spraying and nuclear energy into a policy position within Kyoto forces, it is harder to sort out rhetoric from reality. the minister’s staff. An issue of importance to the depart- The most frustrating part of the propaganda campaign has ment’s scientists, but for which there was not as yet any been the claim that the Government of Canada is “rushing environmental group campaign focus, was the threat of cli- to ratify.” The notion that there has been any haste in con- mate change. fronting the threat of climate change in Canada would be In dry, technical briefings the scientists from laughable if it were not so dangerous. In walking through Environment Canada would review what was known, what the key milestones leading to Kyoto ratification, the pace was likely and what uncertainties remained about the impact has been leisurely. of ever-increasing emissions of greenhouse gases, primarily I clearly come to this debate as no unbiased observer. I from burning fossil fuels. Canada was taking a lead in the became convinced that climate change was the largest quiet discussions among scientists globally. The Government looming threat to humanity, civilization, and potentially all of Canada offered to host a major scientific conference, in 14 OPTIONS POLITIQUES DÉCEMBRE 2002 – JANVIER 2003 From Montreal to Kyoto, How We Got From Here to There—Or Not collaboration with the United Nations and the any targets or deadlines. Bush threatened that if World Meteorological Programme. The confer- deadlines and targets were included, he would ence, “The Changing Atmosphere: Implications boycott the Earth Summit: “The American for Global Security,” took place in a Toronto heat lifestyle is not on trial,” he famously proclaimed. wave in June 1988. The public and media impact The FCCC was signed and ratified by virtually Compared to likely made many Canadians aware of the issue for every nation on Earth, including Canada and the the first time. The debate at the conference was United States. the stabilization largely whether the climate changes which were In the FCCC, the nations of the world goal of the already being observed in the late 1980s were accepted that climate change was a serious threat attributable to human-caused (anthropogenic) and that efforts should be undertaken to avoid a Mulroney forces. One of Canada’s most distinguished and buildup of greenhouse gases to “dangerous” lev- conservative scientists, the late Dr. Ken Hare, was els. It also set in motion the negotiating process government, the first expert to stake his reputation on the fact to get the world to mandated targets and dead- that climate change was already upon us. lines. This process takes place within the the Chrétien By conference end, scientists from all over Conference of the Parties (COP), in which every the world agreed on a consensus statement and nation which has signed and ratified participates. Liberals, with a target for emission reductions. The statement Mulroney was responsible for the signing and rat- opened, “Humanity is conducting an unintend- ification of the FCCC, but is has been the Environment ed, uncontrolled, globally pervasive experi- Chrétien government that has negotiated critic Paul ment, whose ultimate consequences could be through the various COPs. second only to global nuclear war.” The target: Martin playing a global reductions of carbon dioxide emissions to here was every reason to expect faster action 20 percent below 1988 levels to be achieved by T to reduce greenhouse gases with the election key role, 2005. of the Chrétien Liberals. The 1993 Red Book Within the year, the United Nations estab- promised to meet the Toronto target: obtaining seemed lished an international scientific peer review 20 percent reductions against 1988 levels by group. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate 2005. Compared to the stabilization goal of the destined to Change (IPCC) was created to review the emerg- Mulroney government, the Chrétien Liberals, ing science and provide advice to policy makers. with environment critic Paul Martin playing a overtake The IPCC was composed of scientists appointed key role, seemed destined to overtake the Tory the Tory by their governments. Their conclusions require environmental lead. an enormous effort at consultation, negotiation, Sadly, the last ten years have been character- environmental and testing of evidence in order to report a con- ized by one step forward, two steps back. While sensus assessment of the science. One thing the Canada continued to move internationally lead. IPCC is not is an advocacy group. It does not pres- toward mandated reductions through a binding ent the worst case scenario. The potential for agreement, attempting actual emission reduc- Sadly, the last nasty surprises is recognized, but the reported tions took a back burner. Largely to appease warnings are based on a consensus which is, by Alberta interests, the prime minister undercut his ten years have definition, conservative. first environment minister, Sheila Copps, to but- By 1990, the United Nations General tress his Alberta-based minister of natural been Assembly set in motion the negotiations leading resources, Anne McLellan. The impact was to characterized to the Rio Earth Summit and the first global leave business and industry convinced that it was treaty on climate change. The Toronto target business as usual. Greenhouse gas emissions con- by one step became a starting point for negotiations. Canada, tinued to rise. In fact, on a per capita basis, with then environment minister Lucien through the 1990s, Canadians became more forward, two Bouchard taking the lead, set a less ambitious tar- energy wasteful, not less. get: freezing emissions. Canada committed that Nevertheless, Sheila Copps negotiated a steps back. our emissions in 2000 would be no higher than mandate leading to Kyoto that established the they were in 1990. importance of following the successful model of Two years later, the largest gathering of the Montreal Protocol to reduce ozone deplet- heads of government in the planet’s history gath- ing substances. To protect the ozone layer, the ered in Rio and agreed upon the Framework international community had agreed that the Convention on Climate Change (FCCC). Due to most important first step was for the industrial- last minute pressure tactics from then-president ized countries, which had caused the problem in George Bush, the treaty was completed without the first place and which had the resources to POLICY OPTIONS 15 DECEMBER 2002 – JANUARY 2003 Elizabeth May innovate and develop alternatives, to take on —just appeal to a North American sense of fair- reduction targets, while leaving developing ness and selfishness. It has been virtually impos- countries to allow emissions of ozone depleting sible to communicate through the media the substances to rise in the short term. It had suc- precedent of the Montreal Protocol and all the Kyoto’s survival ceeded with the subsequent ozone protocols reasons why leaving emission reduction targets accelerating reductions in industrialized coun- to poorer countries until later had not been acci- hung by a tries while bringing in the developing countries dental, but a deliberate negotiating mandate thread.

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