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BRICS Summit What Future for the 'Emerging Power' Bloc?

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BRICS Summit What Future for the 'Emerging Power' Bloc? Briefing October 2016 Towards the eighth BRICS Summit What future for the 'emerging power' bloc? SUMMARY The next BRICS Summit will take place in Goa, India on 15 and 16 October 2016. This is the eighth year that the leaders of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (since 2011 only) will come together since the institutionalisation of cooperation among the major emerging economies in 2009. While a range of doubts exist regarding the longevity and cohesion of the bloc, given the disappointing economic performance of several of its members in recent years, the group appears confident that the summit will lead to further intra-BRICS cooperation, including in the areas of customs authorities, environment and agriculture. Terrorism will also be a key issue in the discussions. According to observers, the aim of the summit will be to consolidate existing institutions, including the BRICS-led New Development Bank and the Contingent Reserve Arrangement. It will also be an opportunity for India to underline its prime status among emerging powers, as it is currently growing faster than any other major economy. In 2017 the BRICS chair will be taken over by China. In this briefing: Background The Indian chair and the run-up to the Goa Summit Agenda and expected results Main references Endnotes EPRS | European Parliamentary Research Service Author: Elena Lazarou Members' Research Service PE 589.838 EN EPRS Towards the 8th BRICS Summit Glossary BRICS: Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa. BIMSTEC: Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Burma/Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Thailand). NDB: New Development Bank. CRA: Contingent Reserve Arrangement. Background On 15 and 16 October, India will host the eighth BRICS Summit, bringing together the leaders of the five countries which form the bloc of emerging economies – Michel Temer (Brazil); Vladimir Putin (Russia); Narendra Modi (India); Xi Jinping (China) and Jacob Zuma (South Africa). The leaders of the BIMSTEC group have also been invited to participate, giving the summit an Asian regional dimension, as has been the case previously.1 Together, the BRICS – Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa – account for approximately 23.1 % of global GDP and about 53.4 % of the global population. Originally an acronym coined for investors by Goldman Sachs, the BRIC group (initially without South Africa) was formalised during the first meeting of BRIC Foreign Ministers on the margins of the United Nations General Assembly in New York in September 2006. The first BRIC Summit at leaders’ level took place in 2009, in Yekaterinburg, Russia. Annual summits have taken place since (see Figure 3) leading to successively greater institutionalisation and sectorial cooperation within the group. The most prominent Figure 1 – BRICS GDP (US$ trillion) achievement of this cooperation was the creation in 2014 of the BRICS New Development Bank 12 (NDB) and of the BRICS Contingent Reserve 10 Arrangement (CRA). Over the years, the BRICS Summits have also led to greater cooperation in 8 the area of climate, food and energy security, 6 global financial governance, reform of the Bretton 4 Woods institutions, trade, agriculture, education, 2 health, taxation, corruption. A parliamentary dimension – the BRICS Parliamentary Forum – was 0 2001 2008 2015 added to the BRICS under the Russian chair in 2015. Figure 2 – BRICS GDP growth (% annual) 20% In recent years, economic, political and 15% geopolitical trends have led to some scepticism regarding the longevity of the bloc. While India 10% maintains continued growth, the commodity- 5% dependent members (Brazil, Russia and South 0% Africa) have lost economic momentum. Brazil -5% faces an ongoing political and economic crisis -10% which has revealed the depth of its structural 2001 2008 2015 problems. In Russia demographic change is raising Brazil China India questions about adequate domestic demand and Russia South Africa the country’s potential for future innovation. The Data source: World Bank, 2016. economy’s dependence on oil prices, and the Members' Research Service Page 2 of 7 EPRS Towards the 8th BRICS Summit country's international isolation poses an additional challenge. South Africa’s lack of diversified economic growth models has also led to declining growth and ensuing social frustration. In 2015, Goldman Sachs, where the name originated, closed its BRIC investment fund. Internal differences, such as diverging views on UN Security Council reform and territorial disputes between India and China, also raise doubts about the prospects of closer cooperation. For all these reasons, continuity and consolidation will be at the core of the upcoming summit. The Indian chair and the run-up to the Goa Summit The theme of India's year in the BRICS chair, in 2016 is 'Building responsive, inclusive and collective solutions'. According to the Indian Presidency of the 2016 Goa Summit, India’s approach focuses on further institutionalising BRICS cooperation; implementing decisions of previous summits; integrating the existing cooperation mechanisms; innovating by creating new cooperation mechanisms (government-to-government, Track-II, business- to-business and people-to-people/P2P); and on the continuation of mutually agreed existing BRICS cooperation mechanisms. The P2P dimension, a central point of the forthcoming summit, aims to bring the BRICS concept closer to civil society and to the population of the five countries. Informal meeting in the margins of the G20 In the run-up to the summit, BRICS leaders met informally on the margins of the G20 Summit in Hangzhou (China) on 4 September 2016. The leaders exchanged views on global political, security, economic and global governance issues of mutual concern. They recognised that BRICS countries are confronted with new challenges in their respective economic growth paths, and underlined the importance of further strengthening the BRICS strategic partnership. Within the G20, they agreed to pursue issues of global and mutual interest to the BRICS countries and underlined the significance of macroeconomic policy coordination, including in order to avoid negative spill-overs and to achieve strong, sustainable and balanced growth. They also stressed their determination to work together with G20 members and developing countries alike. The BRICS reaffirmed their commitment to strengthening the Word Trade Organization (WTO) and expressed concern at rising protectionism and declining global trade. They called upon all WTO members to contribute to the early ratification and timely entry into force of the Trade Facilitation Agreement. They also urged the G20 member countries to step up efforts to increase the IMF’s quota resources and review the distribution of quotas and votes to ensure fair reflection of emerging and developing economies. They stressed common positions on corruption, illicit cross-border financial-flows; and sustainable development; and reaffirmed their commitment to the implementation of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development including through strengthening cooperation among BRICS countries in this process. As far as intra-BRICS cooperation is concerned, and in light of the summits, the five leaders exchanged views on further strengthening intra-BRICS trade, business, and commercial, tourism and travel ties. They welcomed the progress in implementation of the Strategy for BRICS Economic Partnership and underscored the importance of the BRICS Roadmap on Trade, Economic and Investment Cooperation until 2020. In addition, they expressed satisfaction at the NDB's approval of the first set of loans to member countries in the renewable and green energy sectors as well as the successful issuance of the Bank's first bond, a green bond denominated in renminbi (RMB). Terrorism also Members' Research Service Page 3 of 7 EPRS Towards the 8th BRICS Summit featured in their exchanges, with the BRICS emphasising the role of the UN and international law and committing to strengthen cooperation among them and with other nations. Regular meeting of Ministers of Foreign Affairs on the margins of the UNGA The BRICS Ministers of Foreign Affairs held their regular meeting on 20 September 2016 on the margins of the 71st session of the United Nations General Assembly. In the ensuing communication they underlined the marked progress achieved since the first Meeting of Foreign Ministers on the margins of the 61st session of the United Nations General Assembly in September 2006, in deepening the BRICS strategic partnership. They reaffirmed the need for comprehensive reform of the United Nations, including of its Security Council, with a view to making it more representative and efficient. They condemned terrorism in all its forms and manifestations. They strongly condemned the recent attacks against some BRICS countries, including that in India. They urged concerted efforts to counter terrorism on a firm international legal basis, under the UN's auspices, and expressed their conviction that a comprehensive approach was necessary to ensure an effective fight against terrorism. In this regard, they called for early conclusion of the negotiations on the UN Comprehensive Convention against Terrorism. Among other things, the Ministers emphasised the need for concerted action in the areas of global health, the Sustainable Development Goals, and the resolution of conflicts in Africa – led by Africa in collaboration with the UN. With regard to the situation in
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